Humana Inc. (HUM – $169.57*) Company Update Key Points

[Pages:13]Healthcare: Managed Care

Important disclosures can be found on pages 9 - 13 of this report.

Humana Inc. (HUM ? $169.57*)

Company Update

Louisville, KY August 3, 2016

STOCK DATA

Market Perform Price Target: $170.00

Moves to Reduce 2017 Exchange Losses--Positive

52-Week Range 3-Month ADTV Dividend Yield Market Cap (mil) Shares Outstanding (mil) Beta Float (%) Fiscal Year-End

$192.49 ? $150.00 1,980,489 0.68% $25,265.9 149.0 0.56 99.0 December

EARNINGS DATA

Diluted EPS

2015A 2016E 2017E

1Q

$2.47 $1.99A

--

2Q

$1.67 $2.30A

--

3Q

$2.16 $2.77

--

4Q

$1.45 $2.19

--

FY

$7.75 $9.25 $10.00

P/E

21.9x 18.3x 17.0x

Quarterly EPS may not sum to total due to rounding or

change in share count.

FINANCIAL DATA

FY Revenue (mil) EBITDA (mil) EV/EBITDA

2015A 2016E 2017E $54,289 $54,235 $57,219 $2,901.0 $3,306.9 $3,512.3

9.4x 8.2x 7.8x

BALANCE SHEET DATA

Cash & Equivalents Current Assets Total Assets Total Liabilities Total Stockholder Equity Total Debt $ in millions

2Q16 $2,429.0 $17,736.0 $27,236.0 $16,362.0 $10,874.0

4,093.0

Steven Halper 646.885.5469 . shalper@

Summary and Recommendation

On August 3, Humana reported 2Q16 results that were above expectations. Adjusted EPS for 2Q16 were $2.30, compared with our estimate of $2.28 and the consensus of $2.21. The company maintained its 2016 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $9.25 (established on July 21). Guidance includes a $0.12 benefit related to tax treatment of stock compensation expense. Results benefited from increased Medicare membership and per-member premium increases. As previously indicated, HUM announced that it is now scaling back its individual exchange offerings in 2017. We have held the view that HUM would not exit markets, given its pending merger with Aetna. We are encouraged by management's decision to reduce its exposure to this segment and potentially reduce/eliminate its losses in 2017. Regarding its merger with AET, it remains to be seen if the companies will be successful in either a negotiated agreement with the DOJ or at trial. We maintain our Market Perform rating. The shares trade at a 31% discount to the implied acquisition price.

Key Points

2Q16 results recap. Premium revenue grew 3.3% year over year, which was above our estimate. Retail membership was slightly better than expected with individual Medicare Advantage increasing 4% year over year. Services revenue was essentially in line with our estimate. Total revenue was $14.0 billion, versus our estimate of $13.2 billion. The medical cost ratio was 84.3%, compared with 85.2% a year ago. The company increased its premium deficiency reserve but benefited from positive prior-period development. Risk adjustment accruals were more favorable in 2Q16 than in 2Q15.

3Rs receivable balance increases sequentially. As of June 30, 2016, Humana had approximately $900 million in outstanding receivables related to the 3Rs program (compared to $759 million at the end of 1Q16), with $542 million of the receivables related to risk corridor (compared to $466 million at the end of 1Q16). Risk corridor receivables are classified as long-term receivables, as they are expected to be collected in future years.

More concrete strategy to exit individual plans. HUM's individual business continues to weigh on profitability. As such, Humana will offer on-exchange individual commercial health plans in 11 states in 2017, compared with 15 states in 2016. Also, the number of counties served will decline from 1,351 to just 156. Premium revenue for 2017 is expected to be 22% to 29% of 2016 revenue. All off-exchange individual plans will be discontinued in 2017. While we had always questioned Humana's aggressive move into the individual exchange area, we view the moves to reduce/eliminate losses very positively. At some point in the future, the federal government will have to legislate incremental changes to the ACA in order to increase private sector participation, if it wants to further reduce the number of uninsured.

Time to focus more on fundamentals while AET merger is now less likely. While we are encouraged by HUM's steps to reduce/eliminate exchange losses, we believe the shares essentially reflect the company's long-term growth potential. We reiterate our Market Perform rating.

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The DebateTM

Debatable Point Our Thoughts

Time Frame

Why is Humana an attractive asset to Aetna?

Simply put, the company has a significant presence in Medicare Advantage (MA). After several years of challenging reimbursement, 2016 rates improved, and we expect continued strong growth in seniors enrolling in MA plans. Given Humana's strong foothold in MA, it remains an attractive strategic fit for Aetna (AET Market Perform). AET/HUM were unable to satisfy the Justice Department competition concerns. It remains to be seen how the lawsuit challenge will play out.

3 Months

Why did Humana s earnings not meet 2015 expectations?

With a large percentage of revenue derived from Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans, Humana has more exposure to federal reimbursement cuts relative to other industry participants. In addition to reduced MA reimbursement, results in 2015 were negatively affected by higher-than-expected medical costs, pricing, and product design. The company s individual exchange business continues to struggle while MA has improved.

12 Months

Impact

What is the impact of Humana s exchange plans?

The company focused on exchange plans to grow its membership and invested heavily in this area. After a difficult few years, it will dramatically reduce its exposure beginning in 2017.

12 Months

Why is Medicare Advantage still considered a growth market?

Currently, about 25% of eligible seniors have enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans. Seniors typically receive additional benefits at a lower cost, compared with the traditional Medicare fee for service. At the same time, the federal government saves money on MA, all else being equal. Over time, we expect the percentage of seniors covered by Medicare Advantage to increase.

12 to 18 Months

Investment Thesis

Humana focuses mainly on the Medicare managed care (Medicare Advantage) market. Humana provides coverage to about 14.3 million medical members, including 3.2 million Medicare Advantage (MA) members. Medicare comprises about 74% of the company's total premium revenue. The company also has individual, state-based Medicaid, small group, commercial ASO, and Medicare Supplement members under coverage. While we expect strong MA membership growth over the next few years, reimbursement has been challenged but should improve in 2016. Given the recent DOJ action to block the merger, we expect that HUM shares will now trade based on investors' expectations regarding fundamentals rather than the companies' (AET/HUM) ability to successfully close the acquisition.

Valuation

We base our 12-month price target of $170 on our long-term DCF model, which assumes revenue growth gradually declining from around 7% to roughly 1% over the next 10 years, modest margin expansion, capital expenditures equating to about 1.0% of revenue each year, a terminal growth rate of 1%, and a discount rate of about 8.0%. Our price target equates to a P/E multiple of about 18.4x our 2016 adjusted EPS estimate.

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Risks

Regulation. Humana's health insurance business operates in a highly regulated (federal, state, and international) environment. Its insurance and HMO operations must be licensed by individual states. The states require periodic financial reports and enforce minimum capital requirements. Activities can also be regulated by the states. The PPACA imposes a significant regulatory burden on the industry and the company. As a provider of Medicare and Medicaid services, the company is also subject to specific regulations regarding those programs.

Premium rates and medical cost trends. The premiums paid by the government to Humana are generally fixed by contract. Humana's ability to accurately forecast cost trends and manage actual cost is key to its health plan profitability. Humana's ability to effectively manage its cost trends and record prior-period adjustments could result in volatile swings in the company's profitability, as defined by its medical loss ratio (MLR). Unexpected increases (and decreases) in healthcare utilization by its health plan members could result in unexpected changes in the company's medical loss ratio and earnings.

Customer concentration. Given its significant concentration in Medicare, Humana is subject to changes in the Medicare program. As a result, it is unlikely to recoup the industry fees imposed by the Affordable Care Act.

Competition. Humana faces significant competition across all of its geographic markets. Health plan competitors include all of the major publicly traded health insurers, as well as smaller for-profit and notfor-profit entities.

Acquisitions. Over the years, Humana has been fairly acquisitive in purchasing provider businesses (i.e., Concentra) in new and existing states. Acquisitions typically introduce integration risk to the company's performance.

Results could exceed our expectations, making our price target conservative. Humana's exposure to Medicare and its exchange business could outperform our expectations, thus leading to better results than our forecasts. These factors could result in better earnings growth and a higher stock price.

Merger with Aetna. Our DCF-based price target of $170 reflects the value of our long-term estimates for Humana on a stand-alone basis. If the merger with AET is eventually completed, we expect the stock to be valued on the acquisition price.

Company Profile

Founded in 1961, Humana Inc. provides health plan and related services that incorporate an integrated approach to lifelong well-being. The company operates in four segments: retail, employer group, healthcare services, and other businesses. Humana has about 14.3 million medical members, including 3.2 million Medicare Advantage members. It is the second-largest provider of Medicare Advantage plans. The company is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

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Humana Inc. Results Analysis

2Q16

Estimate

Actual

2Q15 Prior Year

Exp

Act

Revenue Premiums Services Investment income Total Revenue

$12,796.7 $268.0 $130.0

$13,194.7

$13,650.0 $262.0 $95.0

$14,007.0

Medical Costs Medical Loss Ratio

Operating Expenses Operating costs Depreciation and amortization

Operating Income Operating margin

$10,611.5 82.9%

$11,509.0 84.3%

$1,783.4 $90.0

$709.8 5.4%

$1,680.0 $89.0

$729.0 5.2%

Interest Expense Pretax Income Provision for Income Taxes

Tax Rate

Net income Diluted Shares Outstanding

Adjusted EPS

Total Membership Retail Group Other

$47.0 $662.8 $318.8 48.1%

344.0 150.6

$2.28

14,191 9,234 4,924

34

$47.0 $682.0 $335.5 49.2%

$346.5 150.8

$2.30

14,245 9,420 4,793

31

2016 Guidance

Prior Guidance

Revenue EPS

at least $53,500 at least $9.25

Source: Company data, FactSet, StreetAccount and FBR estimates

$13,212.0 $407.0 $113.0

$13,732.0

$11,252.0 85.2%

$1,817.0 $90.0 $573.0 4.2%

$47.0 $526.0 $273.5 52.0% $252.5 151.1 $1.67

14,188 9,168 4,987

34

(3.1%) (34.2%) 15.0% (3.9%)

(5.7%) (2.6%)

3.3% (35.6%) (15.9%)

2.0%

2.3% (1.0%)

(1.8%) 0.0%

23.9% 28.9%

(7.5%) (1.1%)

27.2% 24.7%

0.0% 26.0% 16.6% (7.5%)

36.2% (0.4%)

36.8%

0.0% NM NM NM

0.0% 29.7% 22.7% (5.4%)

37.2% (0.2%)

37.5%

0.4% NM NM NM

New Guidance

$54,000-$54,500 reaffirmed

Prior Consensus $13,260 $274 $1,016 $13,610 84.3%

$2.21

Prior Consensus $54,234 $8.99

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Humana Inc. Income Statement for years ended December 31, ($ In millions, except per share data)

Revenue: Premiums Services Investment income % growth Total revenue

Operating expenses: Medical Costs Medical Loss Ratio Operating costs % of revenue (excluding investment income) Depreciation and amortization % of revenue Total operating expenses

Operating Income Operating margin

EBITDA

Interest expense

Pretax Income

Provision for income taxes Tax rate

Net income Net income margin

Basic EPS

Adjusted EPS

Basic Shares Outstanding

Diluted Shares Outstanding

Source: Company Reports and FBR estimates

2012A y/y

2013A y/y

2014A y/y

1Q15A 2Q15A 3Q15A 4Q15A 2015A y/y

1Q16A 2Q16A 3Q16E 4Q16E 2016E y/y

2017E y/y

37,009 1,726 391

5.4% 26.9%

6.8%

38,829 2,109 375

39,126 6.2% 41,313

4.9% 22.2% -4.1%

45,959 2,164 377

5.6% 48,500

18.4% 2.6% 0.5%

17.4%

13,248 490 95 4.4%

13,833

13,212 407 113

22.8% 13,732

12,987 246 130

36.8% 13,363

12,962 263 136

37.4% 13,361

52,409 1,406 474

54,289

14.0% -35.0% 25.7%

11.9%

13,440 260 100 5.3%

13,800

13,650 262 95

-15.9% 14,007

12,731 268 150

15.0% 13,148

12,855 268 156

15.0% 13,280

52,676 1,058 501 5.7%

54,235

0.5% -24.8%

5.7%

-0.1%

55,708 1,061 450

350.0% 57,219

5.8% 0.3% -10.2%

5.5%

30,985 83.7% 5,830 15.1%

295 0.8% 37,110

7.5% 8.1% 9.3% 7.6%

32,564 83.9% 6,355 15.5%

333 0.8% 39,252

2,016 -14.0% 5.15%

2,061 4.99%

2,311

2,394

105 -3.7%

140

1,911 -14.5%

689 -15.6% 36.1%

1,921

690 35.9%

1,222 -13.9% 3.12%

$7.57 -11.8%

1,231 2.98%

$7.81

$7.47 -11.7% 161 -2.4% 163 -2.6%

$7.73 158 159

5.1% 9.0% 12.9% 5.8% 2.2%

38,166 83.0% 7,639 15.9%

333 0.7% 46,138

2,362 4.87%

2,695

33.3%

192

0.5% 0.2%

2,170

1,023 47.1%

0.7% 3.2%

1,147 2.36%

$7.44

3.6% -2.5% -2.6%

$7.36 154 156

17.2% 20.2%

0.0% 17.5% 14.6%

37.1% 13.0% 48.2%

-6.8%

-4.8% -4.8% -2.1% -2.1%

11,005 83.1% 1,945 14.2%

93 0.7% 13,043 790 5.71%

883

46.0

744

368 49.4%

376 2.72%

$2.50

$2.47

150

152

11,252 85.2% 1,817 13.3%

90 0.7% 13,159 573 4.17%

663

47.0

526

274 52.0%

252 1.84%

$1.69

$1.67

149

151

10,896 83.9% 1,677 12.7%

84 0.6% 12,657 706 5.28%

790

47.0

659

333 50.6%

326 2.44%

$2.19

$2.16

149

150

11,116 85.8% 1,680 12.7%

88 0.7% 12,884

477 3.57%

44,269 84.5% 7,119 13.23%

355 0.7% 51,743

2,546 4.69%

565

2,901

46.0

186

431

213 49.5%

2,360

1,188 50.3%

218 1.63%

$1.46

1,172 2.16%

$7.84

$1.45 149 151

$7.75 149 151

16.0% -6.8% 6.6% 12.1% 7.8%

-3.1% 8.8% 16.1%

2.2%

5.4% 5.3% -3.1% -3.0%

11,397 84.8% 1,713 12.5%

88 0.6% 13,198 602 4.36%

690

47.0

555

255 45.9%

300 2.17%

$2.01

$1.99

149.2

151

11,509 84.3% 1,680 12.1%

89 0.6% 13,278 729 5.20%

818

47.0

682

336 49.2%

346 2.47%

$2.32

$2.30

149.4

151

10,357 81.4% 1,804 13.9%

90 0.7% 12,251 897 6.83%

987

47.0

850

433 50.9%

418 3.18%

$2.80

$2.77

149

151

10,652 82.9% 1,816 12.5%

90 0.7% 12,558

721 5.43%

43,915 83.4% 7,013 13.05%

357 0.7% 51,285

2,950 5.44%

811

3,307

47.0

188

674

344 51.0%

2,762

1,367 49.5%

330 2.49%

$2.21

1,395 2.57%

$9.34

$2.19 149 151

$9.25 149 151

-0.8% -1.5% 0.6% -0.9% 15.9%

46,523 83.5% 7,184 12.7%

380 0.7% 54,087

3,132 5.47%

3,512

1.1% 190.0

17.0% 15.1%

2,942

1,433 48.7%

19.0% 19.1%

1,509 2.64%

$10.13

19.4% -0.1% -0.3%

$10.00 149 151

5.9% 2.4% 6.4% 5.5% 6.2%

1.1% 6.5% 4.8%

8.2%

8.5% 8.1% -0.2% 0.3%

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Humana Inc. Balance Sheet ($ In millions)

ASSETS Current assets:

Cash and cash equivalents Investment securities Receivables, less allowance for doubtful accounts: Other current assets Total current assets

Property and equipment, net Long-term investment securities Goodwill Other long-term assets TOTAL ASSETS

LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY Current liabilities:

Benefits payable Trade accounts payable and accrued expenses Book overdraft Unearned revenues Current portion of long-term debt Total current liabilities

Long-term debt Future policy benefits payable Other long-term liabilities Total liabilities

Stockholders' equity: Preferred stock Common Stock Capital in excess of par value Retained earnings Accumulated other comprehensive income Treasury stock

Total shareholders' equity

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY

Source: Company reports

Institutional Brokerage, Research, and Investment Banking

2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A

1Q16A

2Q16A

1,673 6,873

959 633 10,138

1,377 7,743 1,034 1,027 11,181

1,306 8,001

733 1,670 11,710

1,138 8,090

950 2,122 12,300

1,935 7,598 1,168 4,011 14,712

2,571 7,267 1,161 4,712 15,711

815 1,500 2,568 1,083 $16,103

912 1,710 2,740 1,165 $17,708

1,098 1,846 3,640 1,685 $19,979

1,218 1,710 3,733 1,774 $20,735

1,419 1,949 3,711 1,675 $23,466

1,384 1,843 3,265 2,502 $24,705

2,801 7,738 1,737 5,568 17,844

1,420 1,940 3,265 2,465 $26,934

2,429 7,417 2,553 5,337 17,736

1,452 2,051 3,266 2,731 $27,236

3,469 1,681

409 185

0 5,745

1,669 1,493

273 9,179

3,754 1,783

306 213

0 6,056

1,659 1,663

267 9,645

3,779 2,042

324 230

0 6,375

2,611 1,858

288 11,132

3,893 1,821

403 206

0 6,323

2,600 2,207

289 11,419

4,475 2,185

334 361

0 7,355

3,825 2,349

291 13,820

4,976 2,212

301 364 299 8,152

3,821 2,151

235 14,359

5,114 4,074

257 360 300 10,105

3,793 2,233

278 16,409

5,258 3,873

192 311 300 9,934

3,793 2,288

347 16,362

0 32 1,737 5,529 121 (494) $6,924

0 32 1,938 6,825 303 (1,035) $8,063

0 32 2,101 7,881 386 (1,553) $8,847

0 33 2,267 8,942 158 (2,084) $9,316

0 33 2,330 9,916 223 (2,856) $9,646

0 33 2,530 11,017 58 (3,292) $10,346

$16,103 $17,708 $19,979 $20,735 $23,466 $24,705

0 33 2,498 11,205 76 (3,287) $10,525

$26,934

0 33 2,502 11,492 134 (3,287) $10,874

$27,236

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Humana Inc. Cash Flow Statement ($ In millions) Cash flows from operating activities

Net income Adjustments to reconcile net income:

Depreciation and amortization Net realized capital gains Stock-based compensation (Benefit) provision for deferred income taxes Gain on sale of business Provision for doubtful accounts Changes in operating assets and liabilities, net: Receivables Other assets Benefits payable Other liabilities Unearned revenues Other Net cash provided by operating activities Cash flows from investing activities Proceeds from sale of business Acquisitions, net of cash acquired Purchases of property and equipment Proceeds from sales of property and equipment Purchases of investment securities Maturities of investment securities Proceeds from sales of investment securities Net cash used in investing activities Cash flows from financing activities Receipts (withdrawals) from contract deposits, net Proceeds from issuance of senior notes, net Proceeds from issuance of commerical paper, net Repayment of long-term debt Common stock repurchases Dividends paid Excess tax benefit from stock-based compensation Change in book overdraft Proceeds from stock option exercises and other, net Net cash used in financing activities (Decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of year Cash and cash equivalents at end of year Source: Company reports

Institutional Brokerage, Research, and Investment Banking

2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A

2015A

1Q16A

2Q16A

$1,099 $1,419 $1,222 $1,231 $1,147

$1,276

263 (6) 63

(199) 0

19

303 (11) 67 22

0 31

338 (33) 82 (80)

0 26

426 (22) 92 42

0 0

449 (20) 98 (64)

0 0

447 (146) 109

(2) (270)

0

(46) 81 247 722 (46) 45 2,242

(106) (183) 256 194

26 61 2,079

326 (253)

(41) 300 (43)

79 1,923

(214) (330) 109 313

(24) 93 1,716

(232) (952) 582 413 155

42 1,618

(119) (872) 501 (129)

3 70 868

0 (833) (222)

0 (4,589) 1,821 2,012 (1,811)

0 (226) (346)

10 (3,678) 1,623 1,259 (1,358)

0 (1,235)

(410) 0

(3,221) 1,497 1,404 (1,965)

0 (187) (437)

34 (3,261) 1,077 1,592 (1,182)

0 (18) (528) 72 (2,883) 885 2,409 (63)

1,061 (38)

(523) 1

(6,739) 1,065 5,493

320

(237) 0 0 0

(108) 0 2

35 (63) (371) 60 1,613

$1,673

(378) 0 0 0

(541) (82) 15

(103) 72

(1,017) (296)

1,673

$1,377

(397) 990

0 (36) (518) (165) 22 18 57 (29) (71) 1,377

$1,306

(150) 0 0 0

(531) (168)

8 79 60 (702) (168) 1,306

$1,138

(919) 1,733

0 (500) (872) (172)

12 (69) 29 (758) 797 1,138

$1,935

(296) 0

298 0

(385) (172)

15 (33) 21 (552) 636 1,935

$2,571

$234

115 (20) 23 15

0 0

(576) (685) 138 1,210

(4) 32 482

0 0 (125) 0 (1,430) 213 914 (428)

318 0 0 0

(71) (47) 20 (44)

0 176 230 2,571 $2,801

$311

96 (19) 25 (39)

0 0

(816) 7

144 (12) (49) 56 (296)

0 (1) (131) 0 (1,098) 422 939 131

(97) 0 0 0 (2)

(43) 0

(65) 0

(207) (372) 2,801 $2,429

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HUMANA DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS Free Cash Flows - Selected Financial Data

2014 YR-0

2015 YR1

2016 YR2

2017 YR3

2018 YR4

2019 YR5

2020 YR6

2021 YR7

2022 YR8

Revenue 48,500 % change

54,289 11.9%

54,235 -0.1%

57,219 5.5%

60,080 5.0%

63,084 5.0%

66,238 5.0%

68,888 4.0%

70,954 3.0%

EBIT 2,362

2,546

2,950

3,132

3,331

3,561

3,805

4,026

4,161

% of sales BPS change

4.9%

4.7% -18

5.4% 75

5.5% 4

5.5% 7

5.6% 10

5.7% 10

5.8% 10

5.9% 2

NOPAT CAPEX % of sales

1,249 528 1.1%

D&A % of sales

449 0.9%

1,349 489 0.9%

489 0.9%

1,563 461 0.9%

488 0.9%

1,597 486 0.9%

515 0.9%

1,699 511 0.9%

541 0.9%

2,136 536 0.9%

568 0.9%

2,283 563 0.9%

596 0.9%

2,416 586 0.9%

620 0.9%

2,497 603 0.9%

639 0.9%

Increase in WC Increase in SC Free Cash Flow

-112 1,282

100 868 1,249

0

0 -8 1,591

0

0 448 1,626

0

0 429 1,729

0

0 451 2,168

0

0 473 2,316

0

0 397 2,450

0

0 310 2,532

0

ASSUMPTIONS:

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

DCF Analysis

Growth Rate Average Borrowing Rate

1.0% 5.0%

Discount Rate Components Risk Free Rate + Beta x Equity Risk Premium = Cost of Equity + After Tax Cost of Debt x Target Debt-to-Cap Ratio

= WACC (Discount Rate) WC % of sales Cash Tax Rate

2.0% 1.08 8.1% 10.7% 3.0% 35.0% 8.00%

40.0%

DCF of Free Cash Flow - Net Debt

DCF of levered FCF (with SC req.)

Shares out

DCF Value Per Share

Current Share Price Return to Fair Value

2023 YR9

2024 YR10

2025 YR11

72,374 2.0%

73,459 1.5%

74,194 1.0%

4,259

4,330

4,373

5.9% 2

5.9% 1

5.9% 0

2,555 615 0.9%

651 0.9%

2,598 624 0.9%

661 0.9%

2,624 631 0.9%

668 0.9%

0 213 2,591

0

0 163 2,635

0

0 110 2,661

38,008

0

0 1,574

Perpetuity SC

Perpetuity

2016 PT

$ 32,952

$

4,542

$ 25,632

150.8

$169.96

$171.74 (1.0%)

Source: Company data and FBR estimates

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