Consumer Price Index-October 2021

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday, November 10, 2022

USDL-22-2140

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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ? OCTOBER 2022

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter contributed over half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for gasoline and food also increasing. The energy index increased 1.8 percent over the month as the gasoline index and the electricity index rose, but the natural gas index decreased. The food index increased 0.6 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.4 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, after rising 0.6 percent in September. The indexes for shelter, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, new vehicles, and personal care were among those that increased over the month. Indexes which declined in October included the used cars and trucks, medical care, apparel, and airline fares indexes.

The all items index increased 7.7 percent for the 12 months ending October, this was the smallest 12month increase since the period ending January 2022. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 17.6 percent for the 12 months ending October, and the food index increased 10.9 percent over the last year; all of these increases were smaller than for the period ending September.

Chart 1. One-month percent change in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), seasonally adjusted, Oct. 2021 - Oct. 2022 Percent change

1.4 1.2

1.2

1.0 0.9

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

1.3 1.0

0.4

0.3

0.4 0.4

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

Oct'21 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct'22

Chart 2. 12-month percent change in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), not seasonally adjusted, Oct. 2021 - Oct. 2022

Percent change 10

9

8

7

6

5

4

Oct'21 Nov Dec Jan

Feb Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep Oct'22

All items

All items less food and energy

Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average

1 N o t s e a s o n a l l y adjusted.

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Food

The food index increased 0.6 percent in October following a 0.8-percent increase in September. The food at home index rose 0.4 percent in October, the smallest monthly increase in this index since December 2021. Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the month. The index for other food at home increased 0.9 percent in October, after rising 0.5 percent in September. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.6 percent over the month while the index for cereals and bakery products increased 0.8 percent in October. The index for nonalcoholic beverages rose 0.5 percent in October, after rising 0.6 percent last month.

In contrast, the index for fruits and vegetables fell 0.9 percent over the month after increasing 1.6 percent in September. The index for fresh fruits fell 2.4 percent and the index for fresh vegetables fell 0.5 percent. The index for dairy and related products also declined in October, falling 0.1 percent.

The food away from home index rose 0.9 percent in October, as it did in August and September. The index for full service meals increased 1.1 percent and the index for limited service meals increased 0.8 percent over the month.

The food at home index rose 12.4 percent over the last 12 months. The index for cereals and bakery products increased 15.9 percent over the year and the index for dairy and related products rose 15.5 percent. The remaining major grocery store food groups posted increases ranging from 8.0 percent (meats, poultry, fish, and eggs) to 15.4 percent (other food at home).

The index for food away from home rose 8.6 percent over the last year. The index for full service meals rose 9.0 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for limited service meals rose 7.1 percent over the same period.

Energy

The energy index increased 1.8 percent in October after falling in the preceding three months. The gasoline index rose 4.0 percent over the month, also following three consecutive declines. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 3.1 percent in October.) The electricity index also increased over the month, rising 0.1 percent. However, the index for natural gas decreased in October, falling 4.6 percent after increasing 2.9 percent in September.

The energy index rose 17.6 percent over the past 12 months. The gasoline index increased 17.5 percent over the span and the fuel oil index rose 68.5 percent. The index for electricity rose 14.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for natural gas increased 20.0 percent over the same period.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, following a 0.6-percent increase in September. The shelter index continued to increase, rising 0.8 percent in October, the largest monthly increase in that index since August 1990. The rent index rose 0.7 percent over the month, and the owners' equivalent rent index rose 0.6 percent. The index for lodging away from home increased 4.9 percent in October, after declining 1.0 percent in September.

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The shelter index was the dominant factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy; other components were a mix of increases and declines. Among the indexes that rose in October was the index for motor vehicle insurance which rose 1.7 percent in October after rising 1.6 percent in September. The index for recreation rose 0.7 percent over the month, following a smaller 0.1percent increase in the previous month. The new vehicles index increased 0.4 percent in October, and the personal care index rose 0.5 percent.

In contrast, the medical care index fell 0.5 percent in October after rising 0.8 percent in September. The index for hospital and related services decreased 0.2 percent over the month, and the index for prescription drugs declined 0.1 percent. The index for physicians' services was unchanged in October.

Other indexes which declined over the month include the index for used cars and trucks, which fell 2.4 percent in October after decreasing 1.1 percent in September. The apparel index fell 0.7 percent over the month, after declining 0.3 percent the previous month. The index for airline fares fell 1.1 percent in October, following a 0.8-percent increase in September. The index for household furnishings and operations was unchanged over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 6.3 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 6.9 percent over the last year, accounting for over 40 percent of the total increase in all items less food and energy. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+5.0 percent), household furnishings and operations (+8.4 percent), new vehicles (+8.4 percent), and personal care (+6.4 percent).

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 7.7 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 298.012 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 7.9 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 293.003 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 7.5 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision. _______________ The Consumer Price Index for November 2022 is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, December 13, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

January 2023 Consumer Price Index Weight Update Starting with January 2023 data, BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data.

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Technical Note

Brief Explanation of the CPI

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: all urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical workers. The all urban consumer group represents about 93 percent of the total U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of urban or metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self-employed, the poor, the unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners and clerical workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people living in rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces, and those in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation for all urban consumers is measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U).

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is based on the expenditures of households included in the CPI-U definition that meet two requirements: more than onehalf of the household's income must come from clerical or wage occupations, and at least one of the household's earners must have been employed for at least 37 weeks during the previous 12 months. The CPI-W population represents about 29 percent of the total U.S. population and is a subset of the CPI-U population.

The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, doctors' and dentists' services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban areas across the country from about 6,000 housing units and approximately 22,000 retail establishments (department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other types of stores and service establishments). All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 75 locations. Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visit, telephone call, or web collection by the Bureau's trained representatives.

In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are aggregated using weights, which represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W, separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size classes, and for 23 selected local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U, data are issued only at the national level. The CPI-U and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject to three subsequent quarterly revisions.

The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For most of the CPI-U and the CPI-W, the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100. An increase of 7 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown as 107.000. Alternatively, that relationship can also be expressed as the price of a base period market basket of goods and services rising from $100 to $107.

Sampling Error in the CPI

The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-

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month, 2-month, 6-month, and 12-month percent change standard errors annually for the CPI-U. These standard error estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the estimated standard error of the 1-month percent change is 0.03 percent for the U.S. all items CPI. This means that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology, and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95 percent of these estimates will be within 0.06 percent of the 1-month percentage change based on all retail prices. For example, for a 1month change of 0.2 percent in the all items CPI-U, we are 95 percent confident that the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall between 0.14 and 0.26 percent. For the latest data, including information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see cpi/tables/varianceestimates/home.htm.

Calculating Index Changes

Movements of the indexes from 1 month to another are usually expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to its base period, while percent changes are not. The following table shows an example of using index values to calculate percent changes:

Item A

Item B

Item C

Year I

112.500

225.000

110.000

Year II

121.500

243.000

128.000

Change in index points

9.000

18.000

18.000

Percent change 9.0/112.500 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/225.000 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/110.000 x 100 = 16.4

Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data. Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment method. These factors are updated each February, and the new factors are used to revise the previous 5 years of seasonally adjusted data. The factors are available at cpi/tables/seasonal-adjustment/seasonal-factors-2022.xlsx. For more information on data revision scheduling, please see the Factsheet on Seasonal Adjustment at cpi/seasonaladjustment/questions-and-answers.htm and the Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment Methodological Changes at cpi/seasonal-adjustment/timeline-seasonal-adjustment-methodologychanges.htm.

For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year--such as price movements resulting from weather events, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. This allows data users to focus on changes that are not typical for the time of year. The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data are also used extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation. BLS advises against the use of seasonally adjusted data in escalation agreements because seasonally adjusted series are revised annually.

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Intervention Analysis

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses intervention analysis seasonal adjustment (IASA) for some CPI series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal pattern of price change. Intervention analysis seasonal adjustment is a process by which the distortions caused by such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately represent the seasonal pattern, are then applied to the unadjusted data.

For example, this procedure was used for the motor fuel series to offset the effects of the 2009 return to normal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008. Retaining this outlier data during seasonal factor calculation would distort the computation of the seasonal portion of the time series data for motor fuel, so it was estimated and removed from the data prior to seasonal adjustment. Following that, seasonal factors were calculated based on this "prior adjusted" data. These seasonal factors represent a clearer picture of the seasonal pattern in the data. The last step is for motor fuel seasonal factors to be applied to the unadjusted data.

For the seasonal factors introduced for January 2022, BLS adjusted 72 series using intervention analysis seasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, electricity, and vehicles.

Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes

Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject to revision for up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI calculate new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last 5 years of data. Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last 5 years of data are considered to be final and not subject to revision. For January 2022, revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted indexes for 2017 to 2021 were calculated and published. For series which are directly adjusted using the Census X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment software, the seasonal factors for 2021 will be applied to data for 2022 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2022 indexes. Series which are indirectly seasonally adjusted by summing seasonally adjusted component series have seasonal factors which are derived and are therefore not available in advance.

Determining Seasonal Status

Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical criteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its status from "not seasonally adjusted" to "seasonally adjusted", or vice versa. If any of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes before that period will not be changed. For 2022, 22 of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index are seasonally adjusted.

Contact Information

For additional information about the CPI visit cpi or contact the CPI Information and Analysis Section at 202-691-7000 or cpi_info@.

For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI visit cpi/seasonaladjustment/home.htm or contact the CPI seasonal adjustment section at 202-691-6968 or cpiseas@.

If you are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access telecommunications relay services.

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Table 1. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, by expenditure category, October 2022

[1982-84=100, unless otherwise noted]

Expenditure category

Relative importance Sep. 2022

Unadjusted indexes

Oct. 2021

Sep. 2022

Oct. 2022

Unadjusted percent change

Oct. 2021Oct. 2022

Sep. 2022Oct. 2022

Seasonally adjusted percent change

Jul. 2022Aug. 2022

Aug. 2022Sep. 2022

Sep. 2022Oct. 2022

All items............................................ . 100.000 276.589 296.808 298.012 7.7

0.4

0.1

0.4

0.4

Food. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.705 284.205 313.142 315.323 10.9

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.6

Food at home. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.507 265.478 296.771 298.401 12.4

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.4

Cereals and bakery products. . . . . . . . . . . . 1.105 294.625 339.336 341.492 15.9

0.6

1.2

0.9

0.8

Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs. . . . . . . . . . . . 1.904 297.377 319.486 321.271 8.0

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.6

Dairy and related products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.806 233.168 268.793 269.355 15.5

0.2

0.3

0.3

-0.1

Fruits and vegetables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.431 318.316 348.173 348.021 9.3

0.0

0.5

1.6

-0.9

Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage

materials................................. . 0.978 186.387 208.332 210.121 12.7

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.5

Other food at home....................... . 2.284 227.701 260.580 262.814 15.4

0.9

1.1

0.5

0.9

Food away from home1..................... . 5.197 313.592 337.369 340.532

8.6

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.010 255.338 297.343 300.359 17.6

1.0

-5.0

-2.1

1.8

Energy commodities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.310 294.326 338.768 351.065 19.3

3.6

-10.1

-4.7

4.4

Fuel oil1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.151 322.736 454.177 543.915 68.5

19.8

-5.9

-2.7

19.8

Motor fuel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.086 289.665 331.772 341.954 18.1

3.1

-10.5

-4.8

4.0

Gasoline (all types). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.990 288.501 328.918 339.017 17.5

3.1

-10.6

-4.9

4.0

Energy services.............................. . 3.700 228.484 269.667 264.188 15.6

-2.0

2.1

1.1

-1.2

Electricity................................... . 2.685 229.641 265.487 262.100 14.1

-1.3

1.5

0.4

0.1

Utility (piped) gas service. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.016 220.668 275.894 264.774 20.0

-4.0

3.5

2.9

-4.6

All items less food and energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78.285 281.617 298.442 299.315 6.3

0.3

0.6

0.6

0.3

Commodities less food and energy

commodities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.175 158.550 167.104 166.601 5.1

-0.3

0.5

0.0

-0.4

Apparel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.482 124.323 130.143 129.414 4.1

-0.6

0.2

-0.3

-0.7

New vehicles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.056 162.527 175.312 176.157 8.4

0.5

0.8

0.7

0.4

Used cars and trucks..................... . 3.830 195.213 203.867 199.176 2.0

-2.3

-0.1

-1.1

-2.4

Medical care commodities1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.474 379.003 390.677 390.614

3.1

0.0

0.2

-0.1

0.0

Alcoholic beverages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.868 264.748 275.810 278.009 5.0

0.8

0.4

0.0

0.8

Tobacco and smoking products1. . . . . . . . 0.517 1,287.067 1,367.458 1,371.864

6.6

0.3

1.1

0.2

0.3

Services less energy services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57.110 357.469 379.634 381.580 6.7

0.5

0.6

0.8

0.5

Shelter...................................... . 32.622 338.671 359.704 362.093 6.9

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

Rent of primary residence. . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.352 352.892 376.569 379.436 7.5

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.7

Owners' equivalent rent of

residences2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.977 347.522 368.932 371.450

6.9

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.6

Medical care services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.894 575.493 609.852 606.839 5.4

-0.5

0.8

1.0

-0.6

Physicians' services1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.811 407.391 414.767 414.897

1.8

0.0

0.2

0.5

0.0

Hospital services3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

368.593 380.465

0.7

0.1

Transportation services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.946 323.903 368.643 373.098 15.2

1.2

0.5

1.9

0.8

Motor vehicle maintenance and

repair1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.069 325.095 356.076 358.597 10.3

0.7

1.7

1.9

0.7

Motor vehicle insurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.461 564.507 624.558 637.103 12.9

2.0

1.3

1.6

1.7

Airline fares. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.614 205.994 284.313 294.340 42.9

3.5

-4.6

0.8

-1.1

1 Not seasonally adjusted. 2 Indexes on a December 1982=100 base. 3 Indexes on a December 1996=100 base.

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