DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: SECURITY ASSESSMENT



DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: SECURITY ASSESSMENT

In stark contrast with the rest of the region, which is mired in problems ranging from terrorism, political instability, and the threat of war, the United Arab Emirates is not only the most open of societies in the Middle East, it is also the most secure, stable, and economically prosperous Arab state in the Persian Gulf /Arabian Peninsula region. There are no obvious threats to NOV executives or employees traveling to the Dubai area during the month of December.

The main issue will be an influx of visitors/shoppers for the Christmas/New Year's holiday season when traffic can become a nightmare. Dubai and the UAE as a whole have been extraordinarily vigilant in preventing even the hint of potential terror attacks. At expositions and conferences the client should be aware of basic personal security - watch for pickpockets, keep all valuables/passport in the safe in the hotel room, avoid unmarked cabs, desist from trying to walk back to the hotel while intoxicated, etc.

That said, the last three days there has been a rare case of labor unrest, which has been quelled with the government's decision to deport some 4,000 workers - mostly from South Asian countries.

In a highly rare development, thousands of workers went on strike protesting low wages and poor working conditions and engaged in rioting. The trouble began at dawn on Oct 27 when around 4,000 workers took control of a building in Jebel Ali, a prominent commercial zone in Dubai pelting stones and damaging around 18 cars. Several thousand other protesters from different building projects joined the demonstration and riot police were deployed to disperse them using water cannons. A police helicopter was mobilized and filmed the scene in an effort to identify the ringleaders.

The following day the strike spread to three other zones in the capital, with the local press reporting 3,100 workers involved, but police moved in and returned the strikers to their accommodation blocks. Earlier, in August around 500 foreign workers protested over low pay and poor working conditions. The strike broke up and the remaining demonstrators returned to work after around 24 foreigners were deported.

Such protests are rare in the UAE, where strike action is outlawed and workers are not allowed to form labor unions. These protests are the natural outcome of the liberal social climate in the country and the flocking of foreign workers given the economic boom. The government has been under international pressure to improve working conditions for labor. At the same time it cannot allow workers to engage in strikes and disturb the investor friendly environment in the country. Abu Dhabi will therefore be forced to play a balancing act to balance the two concerns.

These strikes - though minor - come at a time when UAE is engaged in a massive international acquisition spree buying stake in companies all around the world to diversify its financial holdings. The Emiratis have been working hard to uphold their image of an investor friendly country and will likely be able to settle the issues with labor. Another major incentive for preventing this matter from brewing for too long is that such unrest if left unchecked over the long haul has the potential of fomenting political and social strife.

While they deals with this rather minor problem at home, the Emiratis are also watching very closely the escalating regional tensions in the wake of the rise of Iran and its Arab Shia allies. In this regard, the U.S.-Iranian struggle over Iraq and Tehran's controversial nuclear program is especially worrisome for the Emiratis because they are situated right in the middle of a potential war zone. The current geopolitical situation, however, precludes the possibility of an outbreak of hostilities in the Persian Gulf in the next few months. Assuming that the United States had the intention of dealing with Iran militarily, it would need some time to prepare for such action.

Country

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) gained its independence from the United Kingdom in 1971, and since then it has become a major regional commercial center. It is a constitutional federation made up of seven emirates (Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Ras Al Khaimah, Fujairah, Umm Al Quwain), with Dubai and Abu Dhabi being the two largest and most influential of the seven.

Though Islamic beliefs serve as the foundation for the customs, laws and practices in the United Arab Emirates, it is one of the most stable and pro-Western countries in the Middle East, hosting several U.S. military facilities including air bases and ports. The United Arab Emirates is a modern country with a robust economy and significant oil wealth. The country also is ethnically diverse. Only 15 percent to 20 percent of the total population of 4.4 million holds UAE citizenship, with the remainder mostly made up of Arabs--Palestinians, Egyptians, Jordanians, Yemenis, Omanis--as well as many Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Iranians, Afghans, Filipinos, and west Europeans. This has helped keep any disruptive political or ideological groups from gaining a substantial foothold in the country.

City

The emirate of Dubai's capital is also known as Dubai. It is considered the fastest-growing city in the world. The emirate of Dubai is the commercial center of the United Arab Emirates, and its thriving economy is based on its reputation as a major trading center for the region and its healthy tourist industry rather than on oil revenue. Arabic is the official language in Dubai; however, English is widely spoken and understood.

The U.S. Consulate in Dubai is located in the Dubai World Trade Center on Sheikh Zayed Road and is open from noon to 3 p.m. Sunday through Thursday, with routine telephone inquiries taken from 7:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. If any of your executives or employees who are U.S. citizens run into problems in the United Arab Emirates you should contact Regional Security Officer Thomas Barnard at the U.S. Embassy in Abu Dhabi at 971-2-443-6691 and mention Fred Burton with Stratfor. A backup contact is Chase Boardman, the regional security officer at the U.S. Consulate in Dubai, at 971-4-311-6000. (For calls originating in the United States, add the prefix O11.) Also please contact Meredith Friedman, VP Stratfor, at 512 426 5107 (cell). In the event of a life-threatening emergency after-hours, call the U.S. Embassy in Abu Dhabi at 02- 414-2200. Another useful number in case problems arise is the Dubai police's English-speaking operator at 269-4848.

Terrorism

Travelers to the United Arab Emirates are advised to exercise caution by keeping a low profile, varying routes and times for travel, and treating mail from unfamiliar sources with caution because of the potential for a terrorist attack in the country.

International terrorist groups continue to call for attacks against Western interests in the Gulf region, including residential compounds and military, oil and transportation targets. Other potential terrorist targets include buildings associated with foreign companies, governments and oil interests; airports and seaports; hotels; restaurants; places of worship; and tourist attractions.

The United Arab Emirates falls under the al Qaeda Organization in the Arabian Peninsula’s area of operations, but the branch’s capabilities have declined sharply in recent years even though the group continues to issue threats. The most recent major attacks in the region include the suicide bombing in Doha, Qatar, in March 2005 against a theater often visited by Westerners and the 2005 attack against the residential compounds in Saudi Arabia. The UAE security apparatus is very effective in identifying and taking action against potential threats.

Although like any other country the United Arab Emirates never will be completely immune from terrorism, the security and political situation in there is perhaps the best in the region. The country also is among the most pro-Western in the Persian Gulf area, and is a strong U.S. ally, which does not mean radical Islamist activists and jihadist operators will not try to enhance their influence in the country. This tactical threat notwithstanding, the United Arab Emirates is in no danger of either becoming politically unstable or experiencing any sustained terrorist activity.

Because of the potential but unsubstantiated terrorist threats, the threat of terrorism in Dubai is medium.

Crime

Violent crime against travelers is generally not a problem in the United Arab Emirates. The U.S. Embassy does recommend, however, that citizens take standard precautions to guard against petty theft. While the United Arab Emirates continues to attract more investment and tourism, pickpockets and tourist scammers naturally will look to exploit unassuming tourists. In larger cities such as Dubai, police maintain a very visible presence in areas frequented by foreigners, and are fairly professional and competent. As a general note, foreigners wanting to go out at night should avoid the Bur Dubai interiors, Deira Roundabout, and Naif Road areas. Women also should avoid traveling alone, especially at night.

Though expatriates are relatively safe from violent crime in the United Arab Emirates, they are still vulnerable to theft. Neighborhoods with large expatriate populations are more susceptible to robberies, particularly in the summer months, when many foreign families go back to their home countries to escape the heat.

The threat of crime in Dubai is low.

War and Insurgency

The United Arab Emirates enjoys very friendly relations with its fellow Gulf Cooperation Council states. Though the dispute over the canceled Dubai ports deal in February 2006 has generated friction and mutually negative public perceptions in both the United States and the United Arab Emirates, government relations between the two countries remain healthy. UAE rulers, like those of other Sunni Arab states, are worried about a rising Iran in the aftermath of Shiite empowerment in Iraq.

The United Arab Emirates and Iran have had a long-standing dispute over control of the island of Abu Musa, which is approximately 20 miles off the coast of Dubai. The Iranian coast guard detained German, British and French tourists in the fall of 2005 for allegedly encroaching on Iranian waters during a fishing trip near Abu Musa. Since then, the issue of Abu Musa has remained relatively quiet.

The threat of war and insurgency in Dubai is low.

Political Instability

Public protests and demonstrations are rare in the United Arab Emirates. Any protests are most likely to be staged by third-country nationals -- most of whom hail from South Asia -- working in Dubai as laborers. Such spontaneous public protests occasionally occur over substandard housing or back-pay. Demonstrations sparked by events elsewhere, such as the summer 2006 Israeli military action in Lebanon or Pope Benedict XVI's remarks about Islam, can occur -- and should be avoided. Even so, these protests are unlikely to get out of control, and UAE security forces are well-equipped to deal with them.

The threat of political instability in Dubai is low.

Miscellaneous Threats

The United Arab Emirates is a modern country with medical facilities on a par with those in the West. The threat of disease affecting visitors is minimal. Transportation networks in the country are well developed and reliable. Traveling on roads in the United Arab Emirates can be dangerous, however, because of unsafe driving practices such as speeding, poor lane discipline and reckless passing. Other potential road hazards include pedestrians, roaming animals and drifting sand. When traveling by taxi, the Dubai Transport Corp. (its vehicles are painted beige) is recommended, though all taxis are metered.

The miscellaneous threat level in Dubai is low.

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