Scenarios for Credit Unions 2020 - CUES

Scenarios for

Credit Unions 2020:

Striving to Stay Relevant in a Rapidly Changing World

Copyright 2014, Decision Strategies International, Inc. (DSI) and Credit Union Executives Society (CUES)

Published by CUES All rights reserved. This report is a benefit for CUES Members, CUES Directors Members, and Center for Credit Union Board Excellence members who may reproduce its contents for use at their individual credit union. Any other use or reproduction in whole or part without written permission of CUES or DSI is prohibited.

The views presented in this manual are those of the author. They do not necessarily represent CUES' views. The scenario planning methodology developed by Paul Schoemaker and associates forms the foundation of the Credit Union Executives Society's CEO Institute I program at the Wharton School.

Published by:

Credit Union Executives Society (CUES) 5510 Research Park Drive Madison, WI 53711 Tel: 800.252.2664 E-mail: cues@

Decision Strategies International, Inc. 101 West Elm St. Ste 520 Conshohocken, PA 19428 Tel: 610.717.1000 Email: adamskraus@

barnakova@ roeder@

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The Credit Union Executives Society (CUES) and its partner, Decision Strategies International (DSI) are pleased to present our fourth installment of scenarios for the future of credit unions.

To develop what we hope is a challenging and compelling set of scenarios, we relied on many credit union system leaders who offered their perspective on the biggest changes that will shape the future of the credit union system in 2020. We greatly appreciate the contributions of the credit union leaders, CEO Institute participants, industry experts, academics, and consultants who lent their expertise. (A full list of interviewees appears in the appendix of this document.)

The research team would like to thank the CUES staff for their vision and dedication, especially Christopher Stevenson, who was a committed partner throughout project development.

Through DSI project manager Yulia Barnakova's tireless dedication to this work, the team stayed on track and focused on bringing the most value possible to you, the reader. In addition, writer Vicky Franchino brought a keen analytical eye and deep knowledge of credit unions to making sense of the mountain of data and insight for each scenario. Nicole Adams Kraus, DSI Principal, provided overall project supervision and thought leadership. And, DSI consultants Jarrad Roeder and Michael Nowak provided essential supporting research and case studies.

Franck Schuurmans, DSI principal, lent a skeptic's eye to each version of our work and provided critical challenges to the team along the way.

Finally, we have also benefitted from several other staff within DSI who each made important contributions including Partners Roch Parayre, Samantha Howland, Rob Lippert, Nick Turner and Arjen van den Berg.

Scenarios are never meant to be predictions of the future. They are, however, meant to challenge us to think differently about the ways in which the future might play out over the next 5-6 years.

Bringing these diverse stories of the future to your teams helps to ignite discussion and debate about the biggest challenges facing the credit union system today. We encourage you to share these with your team and even add elements that will customize them further to your credit union and region.

Into the future you go!

TABLE OF CONTENTS

5 Introduction and Purpose of this Document

7 The Changing State of the Financial Services Industry 11 The Next Step: Scenarios 13 The Scenario Development Process 13 Key Assumptions for the Future

14 Scenarios for Credit Unions 2020: Executive Summary

18 Detailed Scenario Stories

19 Scenario A: "Stuck in a Rut" 23 Scenario B: "Finding a Second Wind" 27 Scenario C: "Hitting a Wall" 31 Scenario D: "Blazing the Trail"

36 Must-Do Strategies for an Uncertain Future

36 Where Should Your Credit Union Focus Now?

39 Scenario Workbook

41 Missed Signals and Changes 42 Deeply Held Beliefs 43 Industry Forces 44 Opportunities and Challenges 45 Strategic Implications 46 Scenario Likelihood and Preparedness 48 Scanning and Monitoring of Key Issues 50 Become a More Adaptive Organization

51 Appendices

51 Scenario "Blueprint" 53 Strategic Forces Survey 56 Qualitative Surveying

57 Endnotes

4 CUES / Decision Strategies International, Inc.

2020 Scenarios For Credit Unions in North America

INTRODUCTION

and Purpose of this Document

5 CUES / Decision Strategies International, Inc.

22002200 SScceennaarriiooss FFoorr CCrreeddiitt UUnniioonnss iinn NNoorrtthh AAmmeerriiccaa:: IInnttrroodduuccttiioonn

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download