WHY AFRICA MATTERS TO US NATIONAL SECURITY

Atlantic Council

AFRICA CENTER

WHY AFRICA MATTERS TO US NATIONAL SECURITY

Grant T. Harris

This report is part of a partnership between the Atlantic Council's Africa Center and the OCP Policy Center and is made possible by generous support through the OCP Foundation.

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WHY AFRICA MATTERS TO US NATIONAL SECURITY

Grant T. Harris

ISBN: 978-1-61977-423-0. Cover photo: Malian, US, and European Special Operations Forces train as part of Exercise Flintlock, an annual US Africa Command-sponsored exercise that included over two thousand military personnel from twentyfour countries in 2017. Flintlock is designed to increase regional cooperation and build partner capacity to protect civilians and reduce sanctuary for violent extremist organizations in North and West Africa. Photo credit: US Air Force Technical Sergeant Marelise Wood, Flintlock Public Affairs. This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The author is solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report's conclusions. May 2017

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1

Introduction

2

Transnational Threats

3

Economic Opportunity and Competitiveness

15

Access to Natural Resources

17

Advancing an International Order that Benefits the United States 19

Conclusion

25

About the Author

26

Why Africa Matters to US National Security

Executive Summary

The United States cannot afford to underinvest in Africa, a continent of over a billion people with growing political and economic power. And yet, there is a persistent misconception prevalent among the American public--and even many foreign policy professionals--that Africa is largely irrelevant to US national security.

This is dangerous, for three reasons.

First, transnational threats from Africa are persistent and real. The continent's uneven democratic and economic growth and pockets of conflict contribute to a disproportionate number of weak and failed states, which threaten US interests at home and abroad by opening the door to terrorism, criminal activity, and pandemics. For example, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and other groups are expanding their reach across Africa1 and, but for a swift global response, the Ebola crisis of 2014 to 2016 could have caused well over a million deaths and vast economic harm.

Second, economic and political needs will inevitably draw the United States to Africa. Though the continent is currently underrepresented in the global economy, that will not last forever. Africa boasts a growing middle class and, by 2050, will constitute a quarter of the world's population.2 While US businesses are underinvested in African markets, China and other global competitors are making deep economic inroads that are feeding jobs in their own countries and creating economic ties that translate into greater political influence. Though not always a zero-sum calculus, China's deepening ties to the region will undoubtedly reduce US influence. Moreover, African states are forming an increasingly unified voice and salient voting bloc on global issues, particularly in multilateral fora; these developments could help either advance or block key aspects of the United States' global agenda on issues ranging from counterterrorism to nuclear security.

Third, incidences of conflict, humanitarian crisis, and mass atrocities in Africa put significant pressure on

1 William Arkin, Robert Windrem, and Cynthia Mcfadden, "New Counterterrorism `Heat Map' Shows ISIS Branches Spreading Worldwide," NBC News, August 3, 2016, . com/storyline/isis-terror/new-counterterrorism-heat-mapshows-isis-branches-spreading-worldwide-n621866.

2 UNICEF Division of Data, Research, and Policy, Generation 2030/Africa, UNICEF, August 2014, publications/files/Generation_2030_Africa.pdf, 7.

the United States to act, in fulfillment of the nation's historic global leadership role. Though some question the value of maintaining the United States' role as "global policeman," military and counterterrorism strategists staunchly agree that, in today's complex and dangerous global environment, it is insufficient to merely keep Americans safe on American soil. Indeed, the rationale for promoting stability and development goes much further; it gets to how the United States has traditionally seen itself in the world, by promoting leadership and values that advance human dignity.3

Serious engagement in Africa is needed, even if one's view of US national security imperatives is limited to countering transnational threats. The logic is simple: instability breeds threats, and unilateralism breeds failure. More to the point, advancing the stability and partnerships needed to protect Americans ultimately requires promoting local economies, supporting good governance, and addressing conflict in African countries.

Furthering stability--the only durable solution to transnational threats--depends on economic growth and good governance. Nothing illustrates the stakes more clearly than Africa's demographic shifts. Given the region's young population (with a median age of eighteen), African leaders must create eighteen million jobs per year.4 This is a tall order, requiring US trade and assistance. Success would propel strong economic growth, but failure would create a large pool of youth who lack opportunities and are potentially susceptible to radicalization, thereby directly increasing the terrorist threat facing the United States. Though the causes of radicalization vary and are complex, a recent study of Boko Haram recruits identified financial

3 The September 2002 National Security Strategy of the United States reads, "In Africa, promise and opportunity sit side by side with disease, war, and desperate poverty. This threatens both a core value of the United States--preserving human dignity--and our strategic priority--combating global terror." "National Security Strategy of the United States of America," The White House, 2002, organization/63562.pdf, 10. J. Peter Pham writes, "In short, while US policy might be motivated by the cold calculus of political realism, moral principles are not divorced from those interests and can, in fact, help advance them." See J. Peter Pham, "Next Front? Evolving United States?African Strategic Relations in the `War on Terrorism and Beyond,'" Comparative Strategy, 26:39?54, 2007, Nextfront.pdf, 41.

4 International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook-SubSaharan Africa Navigating Headwinds, external/pubs/ft/reo/2015/afr/eng/pdf/sreo0415.pdf, 30.

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