Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt - Yardeni Research

Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.

October 19, 2023

Dr. Edward Yardeni

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Mali Quintana

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Margin Debt

3-6

October 19, 2023 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Margin Debt

Figure 1.

960

50

900 MARGIN DEBT & WILSHIRE 5000

840

780 Margin Debt*

720

(billion dollars) (680.8)

660

600

Wilshire 5000 Market Cap

540

(trillions) (42.3)

5/30 40

Sep

30

480

420 20

360

300

240

180

10

120

60



0

0

79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Beginning in 1997 data are debit balances in customers' securities margin accounts. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.

3.0

3.0

MARGIN DEBT*

2.8 (as a percent of Wilshire 5000)

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

Apr

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2



1.0

1.0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Page 3 / October 19, 2023 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Margin Debt

Figure 3.

400

400

350

MARGIN DEBT*

350

(yearly change, billion dollars)

300

300

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50

50

Sep

0

0

-50

-50

-100

-100

-150

-150

-200

-200

-250

-250

-300

-300

-350

-350



-400

-400

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 4.

100

100

MARGIN DEBT* (yearly percent change)

50

50

0

Sep

0



-50

-50

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Page 4 / October 19, 2023 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 5.

1000

MARGIN DEBT & S&P 500

800

600

Margin Debt

Margin Debt* (billion dollars) (680.8) S&P 500 Market Cap (36.1)

50

40 10/18 Sep

30

400

20

200

10



0

0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Standard & Poor's.

Figure 6.

4

4

MARGIN DEBT (as a percent of S&P 500 market cap)

3

3

2

2

Sep



1

1

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Standard & Poor's.

Page 5 / October 19, 2023 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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