Daily Markets Overview - Yardeni Research

Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview

Yardeni Research, Inc.

September 5, 2023

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

S&P 500 Index & Sectors

1

P/Es & VIX

2

Bonds

3

Yield Curve

4-5

High Yield Bonds

6

Municipal Bond Yields

7

Dollar & Commodities

8

Growth vs Value

9

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted vs. Cap-Weighted

10

Foreign Interest Rates

11

September 5, 2023 / Daily Markets Overview

Yardeni Research, Inc.



S&P 500 Index & Sectors

Figure 1.

5000

4800 S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX

4600

(ratio scale, daily)

4400

4200

4000

3800

3600

3400

3200

3000 S&P 500 (4496.8)

2800

50-dma (4477.8)

200-dma (4170.8)

2600

2400

2200

2020

2021

2022

Note: Horizontal black lines are previous years' closing price index. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Figure 2.

15

S&P SECTORS PERFORMANCE:

AUGUST 2023 MONTH-TO-DATE

10

(percent change from last trading day of July)

5000 4800 4600 9/5 4400 4200 4000 3800 3600 3400 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2023

15

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

August 2023

-15

S&P 500 Index (-1.8)

Consumer Discretionary (-1.3)

Consumer Staples (-3.8)

Energy (1.3)

-20

Financials (-2.9)

Health Care (-0.8)

Industrials (-2.3) Information Technology (-1.5) Materials (-3.5) Real Estate (-3.1) Communication

Services (-0.4) Utilities (-6.7)

-25 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 10 11 14 15 16 17 18 21 22 23 24 25 28 29

Source: Standard & Poor's.

August 2023 M-T-D

-10 -15 -20 -25

Page 1 / September 5, 2023 / Daily Markets Overview

Yardeni Research, Inc.



P/Es & VIX

Figure 3.

28

28

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*

26

(daily)

26

24

S&P Forward P/Es

22

S&P 500 (18.8)

S&P 400 (13.7)

20

S&P 600 (13.4)

18

24

22

20 9/5

18

16

16

14

14

12

12

10

10



8

8

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Blue shaded areas are correction declines of 10% to less than 20%. Yellow areas are bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 4.

100

S&P 500 VIX

90

(daily)

100 Latest (14.0)

90

80

80

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

9/5

10

10



0

0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.

Page 2 / September 5, 2023 / Daily Markets Overview

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 5.

8

10-YEAR TREASURY vs 10-YEAR TIPS (percent, daily)

6

Bonds

10-Year Treasury Bond Yield (4.27) TIPS Yield (1.98)

4

8 6 9/5 4

2

9/5

2

0

0



-2

-2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 6.

3.5

WIDELY USED PROXY FOR 10-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RATE* (percent, daily)

3.0

Expected Inflation Proxy (2.29) 2.5

2.0

3.5

3.0

2.5 9/5

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

.5

.5



.0

.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Nominal 10-year US Treasury bond yield minus 10-year TIPS yield. Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Page 3 / September 5, 2023 / Daily Markets Overview

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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