Proposed BCY08 Contracted Board Measures



Discussion, Consideration and Possible Action Regarding Local Workforce Development Area Performance Measures and Targets for Board Contract Years 2017 and 2018IntroductionToday, staff present target recommendations for seven measures: 4 WIOA-based Measures: Employed/Enrolled Q2 Post-Exit – All ParticipantsEmployed/Enrolled Q2-4 Post-Exit – All ParticipantsCredential Rate – All ParticipantsMedian Earnings Q2 Post-Exit – All ParticipantsChoices Full Work Rate# of Employers Receiving Workforce AssistanceClaimant Reemployment within 10 WeeksWIOA-Based All Participant MeasuresThe first 3 WIOA-based measures are now included in TWC’s official measures in the General Appropriations Act and each have targets which we recommend giving each Board. The 4th measure, Median Earnings Q2 Post-Exit does not have a statewide target and so we recommend using the methodology from last year in which we developed targets based on the average level of performance over the last several years, slightly weighted towards more recent performance (this is the method we used last year). The table on Page 3 shows the data used to set these targets.Note that the program-specific WIOA measures require negotiations which will be conducted over the next several weeks now that the WIOA data has stabilized. BCY18 Targets for Choices Full-Work RateThis is the Commission’s 6th year using this measure with the expectation that targets would escalate over time, until all Boards would eventually have targets of 50%. The target methodology proposed by staff for BCY18 is consistent with the methodology used in BCY17. Targets were based on a 10% increase over their actual rolling 12-month performance from the previous year (July 2016 – June 2017), but subject to a minimum target of 40% and a maximum target of 50% and no target can be less than their prior year target. The table on Page 4 of this material shows each Board’s recent rolling 12-month performance data with the BCY17 and proposed BCY18 targets. BCY18 Targets for # of Employers Receiving Workforce AssistanceFor the last several years, we’ve set targets for this measure by setting a subtarget for the number of employers in each area that we expect TWC to serve (primarily through the Work Opportunity Tax Credit and Skills Development programs) and then setting a subtarget for the number of employers we expect to be served locally (either by local staff or self-service by the employers).Staff recommend that BCY18 Targets be set by adjusting BCY17 subtargets for number of employers to be served locally up or down by the percent change in employers in each Board area and accounting for changes. Statewide, there was a 2.19% increase in employer establishments identified by LMCI using the last 2 years of data. Pages 5 &6 shows the material used to set these targets and the final targets themselves.BCY17 AND BCY18 Targets for Claimant Reemployment within 10 WeeksFor the past few years, TWC has used a “blended target” approach to set performance targets on this measure. In this case, the blend focused on the ratio of Oil/Gas claims to non-Oil/Gas claims. This was the result in a drop in oil prices a few years ago that resulted in a dramatic increase in Oil/Gas claims and a significant reduction in return to work performance for these claimants. This year, staff did a similar analysis for performance of other unique types of claims that might have different levels of performance. We divided claims into 5 categories and reviewed recent performance levels for each group:UCX claimsFederal Employment ClaimsOil/Gas Texas Regular ClaimsNon-Oil/Gas Texas Regular ClaimsTexas Regular Claims where Industry was Unknown (not in any of the other 4 categories)What we found was that UCX, Oil/Gas, and Unknown Industry claims tended to run lower than the overall level, while federal claims tended to run above the overall average and the Non-Oil/Gas claims tended to hew most closely to the overall performance (which is not surprising consider they make up the overwhelming majority of claims). In addition, we found a lot of variance from Board to Board:Breakouts/AnalysisUCXFedOil-GasNon-Oil-GasUnknownOverallPerformance48.05%55.97%51.53%54.89%49.76%54.40%% of Overall Performance88.32%102.88%94.72%100.90%91.46%100.00%% of State Denominator1.31%0.92%8.04%85.98%2.07%100.00%Low % of Board Denominator0.29%0.27%0.82%65.23%1.36%NAHigh % of Board Denominator18.78%3.69%31.85%95.36%7.50%NAStd Dev of % of Board Denominator3.46%0.9%6.72%6.72%1.47%NABased on this information, we developed a target methodology that takes a base target of 55% and sets subtargets based on the % of Total data listed above and applied to each Board based on their individual casemix.Breakouts/AnalysisUCXFedOil-GasNon-Oil-GasUnknownOverallPerformance48.05%55.97%51.53%54.89%49.76%54.40%% of Overall Performance88.32%102.88%94.72%100.90%91.46%100.00%SubTarget48.57%56.58%52.09%55.50%50.30%55.00%However, we noted that in a number of cases, there were Boards whose overall performance was largely in line with these expectations, but who might be lagging in one of the various subtargets. So, we recommend that in these situations we apply graduated approach: setting each Board’s subtarget at half the distance between their current performance in that category and the state subtarget. This will give those Boards an extra year to bring performance in a category up.Detailed data used in the application of these target concepts is presented on Pages 7 & 8 of this mission RequestStaff request the Commission approve staff recommendations regarding target methodologies outlined above and authorize staff to apply these methodologies to set BCY18 targets for the WIOA-based All Participant measures, Choices Full Work Rate, # of Employers Receiving Workforce Assistance and Claimant Reemployment within 10 Weeks, as well as applying the new methodology for Claimant Reemployment within 10 Weeks targets for BCY17 where doing so results in a lower target.Integrated WIOA-Based Measure TargetsEmployed/Enrolled Q2 Target = 64%Employed/Enrolled Q2-Q4 Target = 80%Credential Rate = 48%Median Earnings as listed in the following table:Board#BCY14BCY15BCY16BCY17BCY18 - 2 QuartersBCY18 Targets1 Panhandle1$4,397$4,680$4,882$5,258$5,502$4,9442 South Plains2$3,678$3,956$3,961$4,188$4,253$4,0073 North Texas3$3,882$4,175$4,350$4,438$4,657$4,3004 North Central4$4,884$5,181$5,388$5,547$5,741$5,3485 Tarrant County5$4,333$4,627$4,929$5,159$5,251$4,8606 Dallas6$4,191$4,340$4,698$4,967$5,041$4,6487 North East Texas7$3,454$3,563$3,685$3,597$3,758$3,6118 East Texas8$4,225$4,377$4,387$4,340$4,894$4,4459 West Central Texas9$4,136$4,427$4,407$4,569$4,635$4,43510 Borderplex Grande10$3,401$3,583$3,658$3,706$3,952$3,66011 Permian Basin11$6,022$6,464$6,051$6,130$6,960$6,32512 Concho Valley12$4,612$5,066$5,037$4,943$4,862$4,90413 Heart of Texas13$3,912$4,161$3,890$3,820$4,125$3,98214 Capital Area14$4,703$5,028$5,694$6,015$6,557$5,59915 Rural Capital15$5,390$5,912$6,343$6,538$6,659$6,16816 Brazos Valley16$4,076$4,278$4,270$4,218$4,257$4,22017 Deep East Texas17$3,724$3,995$3,847$4,123$4,293$3,99618 Southeast Texas18$4,111$4,510$4,156$4,069$4,354$4,24019 Golden Crescent19$5,189$5,614$5,751$5,450$5,587$5,51820 Alamo Area20$4,488$4,859$5,090$5,196$5,157$4,95821 South Texas21$3,870$4,050$4,037$4,143$4,467$4,11322 Coastal Bend22$4,640$4,801$5,040$4,938$5,341$4,95223 Lower Rio Grande23$3,658$3,779$3,873$3,959$4,548$3,96324 Cameron County24$3,283$3,504$3,657$3,878$4,228$3,71025 Texoma25$4,374$4,396$4,440$4,951$5,013$4,63526 Central Texas26$4,209$4,275$4,472$4,492$4,700$4,43027 Middle Rio Grande27$3,936$4,008$3,849$3,875$4,305$3,99528 Gulf Coast28$4,013$4,290$4,100$4,143$4,461$4,201StatewideAll$4,255$4,538$4,622$4,772$5,038NAChoices Full-Work RateBoardActual PerformanceR12-June15Actual PerformanceR12-June16Actual PerformanceR12-June17BCY17 TargetBCY18 Target1 Panhandle62.24%56.64%59.08%50.0%50.0%2 South Plains43.38%44.82%51.41%49.4%50.0%3 North Texas53.94%63.44%56.16%50.0%50.0%4 North Central50.59%54.29%59.85%50.0%50.0%5 Tarrant County53.67%56.46%55.42%50.0%50.0%6 Dallas39.05%43.80%48.13%48.1%50.0%7 North East Texas45.16%53.33%55.60%50.0%50.0%8 East Texas48.66%58.14%53.61%50.0%50.0%9 West Central Texas34.86%34.12%39.83%40.0%43.8%10 Borderplex Grande37.74%46.91%52.82%50.0%50.0%11 Permian Basin48.51%58.26%51.80%50.0%50.0%12 Concho Valley56.49%63.54%57.32%50.0%50.0%13 Heart of Texas37.32%40.21%36.64%44.3%44.3%14 Capital Area51.73%57.50%54.36%50.0%50.0%15 Rural Capital51.24%54.62%58.58%50.0%50.0%16 Brazos Valley36.17%37.28%47.54%41.6%50.0%17 Deep East Texas47.83%56.32%52.38%50.0%50.0%18 Southeast Texas50.66%51.72%50.04%50.0%50.0%19 Golden Crescent84.80%71.39%63.83%50.0%50.0%20 Alamo Area52.91%60.82%63.13%50.0%50.0%21 South Texas53.25%51.76%55.41%50.0%50.0%22 Coastal Bend55.10%56.33%51.46%50.0%50.0%23 Lower Rio Grande68.57%67.27%62.91%50.0%50.0%24 Cameron County43.57%47.35%51.59%50.0%50.0%25 Texoma51.84%53.47%67.66%50.0%50.0%26 Central Texas56.08%60.75%56.33%50.0%50.0%27 Middle Rio Grande54.26%50.22%54.06%50.0%50.0%28 Gulf Coast42.23%47.07%49.85%50.0%50.0%Statewide46.67%51.40%52.98%50.0%50.0%TargetsBCY17BCY18ChangeMin (40%)10-1Max (50%)23263# of Employers Receiving Workforce Assistance Target Setting Step 1BoardBCY17 Local TargetBCY17 TWC TargetBCY17 Total TargetBCY17 Denominator (# of Employers)BCY18 Denominator(# of Employers)% Change in Employers1 Panhandle1,7754482,22312,27512,221-0.44%2 South Plains1,6784992,17711,47611,5550.69%3 North Texas9903291,3195,8675,779-1.50%4 North Central6,8301,3638,19356,02458,4014.24%5 Tarrant County5,2101,2346,44441,32642,2262.18%6 Dallas9,3851,57710,96273,74275,0191.73%7 North East Texas1,3623851,7476,3876,5342.30%8 East Texas2,7636803,44319,88420,0040.60%9 West Central Texas1,6124192,0318,7568,705-0.58%10 Borderplex Grande3,3447034,04715,52715,7161.22%11 Permian Basin1,7054292,13413,79513,642-1.11%12 Concho Valley1,0982321,3304,7074,637-1.49%13 Heart of Texas1,0794181,4977,3047,4051.38%14 Capital Area3,9748084,78238,04139,5714.02%15 Rural Capital2,4737713,24419,08620,0054.82%16 Brazos Valley1,0003341,3347,2057,3492.00%17 Deep East Texas1,5083961,9047,1197,2521.87%18 Southeast Texas1,5874612,0488,1128,1290.21%19 Golden Crescent1,3052991,6045,3285,306-0.41%20 Alamo Area7,0481,7818,82952,06953,7523.23%21 South Texas1,6072761,8835,5395,6411.84%22 Coastal Bend2,4875933,08013,23213,066-1.25%23 Lower Rio Grande3,5756414,21612,98813,0570.53%24 Cameron County1,3964381,8346,4596,4640.08%25 Texoma1,0682601,3284,4924,5441.16%26 Central Texas1,3776292,0067,8248,1053.59%27 Middle Rio Grande1,1732841,4573,4553,4640.26%28 Gulf Coast24,1082,12726,235153,608156,2841.74%Statewide76,2827,92784,209646,440660,5762.19%# of Employers Receiving Workforce Assistance Target Setting Step 2Board# Served by TWC Only: July16-June17BCY18 Local TargetBCY18 TWC TargetBCY18 Total TargetChange in Local TargetChange in TWC TargetChange in Target1 Panhandle5591,7675592,326-81111032 South Plains5691,6905692,2591270823 North Texas3709753701,345-1541264 North Central1,6747,1201,6748,7942903116015 Tarrant County1,5145,3231,5146,8371132803936 Dallas1,8519,5481,85111,3991632744377 North East Texas4551,3934551,84831701018 East Texas8142,7808143,594171341519 West Central Texas4971,6034972,100-9786910 Borderplex Grande8523,3858524,2374114919011 Permian Basin5161,6865162,202-19876812 Concho Valley2831,0822831,365-16513513 Heart of Texas5231,0945231,6171510512014 Capital Area9254,1349255,05916011727715 Rural Capital9032,5929033,49511913225116 Brazos Valley3651,0203651,38520315117 Deep East Texas4751,5364752,011287910718 Southeast Texas5301,5905302,1203697219 Golden Crescent3151,3003151,615-5161120 Alamo Area1,9417,2761,9419,21722816038821 South Texas3381,6373381,97530629222 Coastal Bend7002,4567003,156-311077623 Lower Rio Grande7933,5947934,3871915217124 Cameron County5341,3975341,9311969725 Texoma3351,0803351,41512758726 Central Texas8151,4268152,2414918623527 Middle Rio Grande3661,1763661,5423828528 Gulf Coast2,45424,5282,45426,982420327747All System8,79181,1188,79189,9094,8368645,700Claimant Reemployment within 10 WeeksMay 2016 to April 2017 Date Broken out by % in each Claim Type and Performance (Perf) for Each Claim Type Board% UCX Claims% Fed Claims% Oil-Gas Claims% Non-Oil-Gas Claims% Unknown Industry ClaimsUCX PerfFed PerfOil-Gas PerfNon-Oil-Gas PerfUnknown Industry PerfTotal Perf1 Panhandle0.60%0.86%10.21%86.31%2.02%60.71%72.50%51.58%62.52%70.21%61.64%2 South Plains0.75%1.73%6.07%89.48%1.96%69.70%52.63%66.92%59.09%50.00%59.36%3 North Texas1.93%0.75%11.49%83.14%2.68%52.17%72.22%50.36%60.16%64.06%59.08%4 North Central0.81%0.66%2.75%94.03%1.75%48.32%58.33%48.16%52.83%59.28%52.82%5 Tarrant County1.04%1.05%2.61%93.20%2.11%53.65%49.28%53.04%56.14%54.14%55.92%6 Dallas0.64%1.05%0.82%95.36%2.14%48.48%57.51%45.86%55.89%58.85%55.84%7 North East Texas0.67%3.69%3.97%86.87%4.80%42.42%21.43%61.73%58.13%48.10%56.33%8 East Texas0.55%0.44%9.44%87.09%2.48%60.56%59.65%51.51%53.85%47.06%53.52%9 West Central Texas1.60%1.60%10.21%85.02%1.57%40.35%52.63%61.26%54.80%57.14%55.23%10 Borderplex Grande6.23%0.97%3.63%85.83%3.33%42.11%51.16%59.88%58.33%47.17%56.94%11 Permian Basin0.29%0.64%31.85%65.23%2.00%68.18%52.08%62.24%58.64%60.00%59.80%12 Concho Valley1.19%0.74%18.72%77.99%1.36%61.90%69.23%61.21%56.65%66.67%57.80%13 Heart of Texas0.94%1.20%3.71%92.61%1.54%51.22%65.38%48.45%56.35%52.24%56.05%14 Capital Area0.85%3.67%0.85%93.03%1.60%53.97%67.53%48.41%57.49%53.81%57.69%15 Rural Capital1.37%2.90%2.53%91.44%1.76%54.43%67.16%57.68%57.35%57.84%57.61%16 Brazos Valley0.91%0.27%10.05%86.59%2.16%60.00%44.44%46.97%58.73%53.52%57.40%17 Deep East Texas0.84%0.45%14.03%80.43%4.25%44.44%51.72%61.60%60.41%48.35%59.89%18 Southeast Texas0.45%0.52%11.36%84.01%3.67%46.94%57.89%62.05%60.89%51.36%60.59%19 Golden Crescent0.50%0.28%13.51%83.16%2.54%31.25%66.67%49.77%52.32%49.38%51.84%20 Alamo Area3.08%1.04%4.30%89.49%2.09%57.87%58.47%56.19%60.79%58.54%60.43%21 South Texas1.01%0.39%13.10%82.01%3.48%41.18%61.54%53.41%56.17%39.32%55.09%22 Coastal Bend0.59%0.71%11.99%82.11%4.60%53.01%46.46%58.77%57.47%41.06%56.77%23 Lower Rio Grande0.41%0.27%16.64%75.17%7.50%50.00%62.12%66.92%59.11%40.11%58.96%24 Cameron County0.89%0.35%4.98%88.74%5.04%46.25%54.84%64.43%52.46%46.02%52.68%25 Texoma0.67%0.49%6.21%90.65%1.98%80.00%54.55%46.38%57.89%75.00%57.64%26 Central Texas18.78%2.21%1.65%75.64%1.71%43.54%54.79%52.29%57.95%61.95%55.15%27 Middle Rio Grande0.88%0.62%16.77%76.28%5.46%57.58%39.13%55.66%51.79%33.33%51.40%28 Gulf Coast0.66%0.51%10.78%85.98%2.07%42.43%54.04%41.23%50.29%48.44%49.24%All System1.31%0.92%8.04%87.00%2.73%48.05%55.97%51.53%54.89%49.76%54.40%Claimant Reemployment within 10 WeeksMay 2016 to April 2017 Date Broken out by Performance (Perf) for Each Claim Type & New SubTargets (SubTgt)BoardUCX PerfFed PerfOil-Gas PerfNon-Oil-Gas PerfUnknown Industry PerfTotal PerfUCX SubTgtFed SubTgtOil-Gas SubTgtNon-Oil-Gas SubTgtUnknown Industry SubTgtBlended Target1 Panhandle60.71%72.50%51.58%62.52%70.21%61.64%48.57%56.58%51.83%55.50%50.30%54.99%2 South Plains69.70%52.63%66.92%59.09%50.00%59.36%48.57%54.61%52.09%55.50%50.15%55.12%3 North Texas52.17%72.22%50.36%60.16%64.06%59.08%48.57%56.58%51.23%55.50%50.30%54.74%4 North Central48.32%58.33%48.16%52.83%59.28%52.82%48.45%56.58%50.12%54.17%50.30%53.96%5 Tarrant County53.65%49.28%53.04%56.14%54.14%55.92%48.57%52.93%52.09%55.50%50.30%55.20%6 Dallas48.48%57.51%45.86%55.89%58.85%55.84%48.53%56.58%48.97%55.50%50.30%55.30%7 North East Texas42.42%21.43%61.73%58.13%48.10%56.33%45.50%39.00%52.09%55.50%49.20%54.39%8 East Texas60.56%59.65%51.51%53.85%47.06%53.52%48.57%56.58%51.80%54.67%48.68%54.23%9 West Central Texas40.35%52.63%61.26%54.80%57.14%55.23%44.46%54.61%52.09%55.15%50.30%54.58%10 Borderplex Grande42.11%51.16%59.88%58.33%47.17%56.94%45.34%53.87%52.09%55.50%48.73%54.50%11 Permian Basin68.18%52.08%62.24%58.64%60.00%59.80%48.57%54.33%52.09%55.50%50.30%54.28%12 Concho Valley61.90%69.23%61.21%56.65%66.67%57.80%48.57%56.58%52.09%55.50%50.30%54.72%13 Heart of Texas51.22%65.38%48.45%56.35%52.24%56.05%48.57%56.58%50.27%55.50%50.30%55.17%14 Capital Area53.97%67.53%48.41%57.49%53.81%57.69%48.57%56.58%50.25%55.50%50.30%55.35%15 Rural Capital54.43%67.16%57.68%57.35%57.84%57.61%48.57%56.58%52.09%55.50%50.30%55.26%16 Brazos Valley60.00%44.44%46.97%58.73%53.52%57.40%48.57%50.51%49.53%55.50%50.30%54.71%17 Deep East Texas44.44%51.72%61.60%60.41%48.35%59.89%46.51%54.15%52.09%55.50%49.33%54.68%18 Southeast Texas46.94%57.89%62.05%60.89%51.36%60.59%47.75%56.58%52.09%55.50%50.30%54.89%19 Golden Crescent31.25%66.67%49.77%52.32%49.38%51.84%39.91%56.58%50.93%53.91%49.84%53.34%20 Alamo Area57.87%58.47%56.19%60.79%58.54%60.43%48.57%56.58%52.09%55.50%50.30%55.04%21 South Texas41.18%61.54%53.41%56.17%39.32%55.09%44.87%56.58%52.09%55.50%44.81%54.58%22 Coastal Bend53.01%46.46%58.77%57.47%41.06%56.77%48.57%51.52%52.09%55.50%45.68%54.57%23 Lower Rio Grande50.00%62.12%66.92%59.11%40.11%58.96%48.57%56.58%52.09%55.50%45.20%54.13%24 Cameron County46.25%54.84%64.43%52.46%46.02%52.68%47.41%55.71%52.09%53.98%48.16%53.54%25 Texoma80.00%54.55%46.38%57.89%75.00%57.64%48.57%55.56%49.23%55.50%50.30%54.96%26 Central Texas43.54%54.79%52.29%57.95%61.95%55.15%46.05%55.69%52.09%55.50%50.30%53.58%27 Middle Rio Grande57.58%39.13%55.66%51.79%33.33%51.40%48.57%47.86%52.09%53.64%41.82%52.65%28 Gulf Coast42.43%54.04%41.23%50.29%48.44%49.24%45.50%55.31%46.66%52.89%49.37%52.11%All System48.05%55.97%51.53%54.89%49.76%54.40%48.57%56.58%52.09%55.50%50.30%53.88% ................
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