Probability and Forensic Science FINAL 061110.ppt

Technology Transition Workshop| Paul Chamberlain

Probability and Forensic Science

Technology

Transition Workshop

Overview

?

?

IIn thi

this presentation

t ti we are going

i to

t introduce

i t d

some basic probability concepts

We will focus only on those ideas you will need

to appreciate the fingerprint probability software

Technology

Transition Workshop

Probability Software and Fingerprint Comparison

Probability and Forensic Science

2

What is Probability?

?

?

IIn any forensic

f

i science

i

investigation

i

ti ti we need

d to

t

deal with uncertainty

How likely is it that the recovered trace came

from the suggested source?

?

?

?

Fibres from a coat

Paint on a jacket

Hair from an individual

Technology

Transition Workshop

Probability Software and Fingerprint Comparison

Probability and Forensic Science

3

What is Probability?

?

?

?

We need

W

d a way off assessing

i the

th likelihood

lik lih d off a

specific event

Given the use to which our assessment is being

put, it is desirable that our assessment is not

wholly based on intuition

Is there a way in which we can do this?

Technology

Transition Workshop

Probability Software and Fingerprint Comparison

Probability and Forensic Science

4

What is Probability?

?

SScience

i

off statistics

t ti ti refers

f to

t ttwo di

distinct

ti t b

butt

linked areas of knowledge

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?

?

Counts, analysis of events,

Counts

events etc.

etc

Examination of uncertainty

We are interested in the second of these

Technology

Transition Workshop

Probability Software and Fingerprint Comparison

Probability and Forensic Science

5

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