REPUBLIC OF NIGER PRIORITIES FOR ENDING ... - World Bank

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Public Disclosure Authorized

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The World Bank

Report No. 115661-NE

REPUBLIC OF NIGER PRIORITIES FOR ENDING POVERTY AND BOOSTING

SHARED PROSPERITY SYSTEMATIC COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC

November 28, 2017

Public Disclosure Authorized

Public Disclosure Authorized

International Development Association Country Department AFCW3 Africa Region

International Finance Corporation Sub-Saharan Africa Department

Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency Sub-Saharan Africa Department

REPUBLIC OF NIGER - GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR January 1?December 31

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective as of October 2017)

Currency Unit = CFA Franc (CFAF) US$1.00 = CFAF 556

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

3N ARMP ARSM

BAGRI BCEAO

BCG BRACED CAFER

CAIMA

CDV CFAF

CGE CNECDD

CNPC COFO CPIA DGTPC

DHS DPT ECOWAS EDSN-MICS

EITI EIU ENBC

Nig?riens Nourrissent les Nig?riens, Nigeriens feed Nigeriens Agence de R?gulation des March?s Publics, Public Procurement Agency L'Agence de R?gulation du Secteur de la Microfinance, The Microfinance Sector Regulatory Agency Banque Agricole du Niger, Agricultural Bank of Niger La Banque Centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest, Central Bank of the States of West Africa Bacillus Calmette-Gu?rin

Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and Disasters Caisse Autonome de Financement de l'Entretien Routier, Road Maintenance Fund of Niger La Centrale d'Approvisionnement en Intrants et Mat?riels Agricoles, Central Supply of Inputs and Agricultural Materials Contract Development and Verification Franc de Communaut? Financi?re Africaine, Franc of the African Financial Community Computable General Equilibrium Comit? National Consultatif pour l'Environnement et le D?veloppement Durable, National Advisory Committee on Environment and Sustainable Development China National Petroleum Corporation Commission fonci?re, Land Commission Country Policy and Institutional Assessment Direction g?n?rale du tr?sor et de la comptabilit? publique, General Directorate of the Treasury and Public Accounting Demographic and Health Survey Diphtheria, Pertussis, and Tetanus Economic Community of West African States Enqu?te. D?mographique et de Sant? et ? Indicateurs. Multiples du Niger, Niger's Demographic and Health Survey with Multiple Indicators Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative Economist Intelligence Unit Enqu?te Nationale sur le Budget et la Consommation des M?nages, National Household Budget and Consumption Survey

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ENISED

FIMA

FINDEX GDP HH HIPC IBRD ICARDA ICT IDA ID4D IFC IIED IMF INS IRIN ISFM ITU LASDEL

LINKAGE LSMS-ISA LUCC MCC MDRI MICS MINUSMA MOH NIGELEC NGO OLS ONAHA

OPVN PASEC

PDES

PEFA PER PBF PFM

Etude Nationale d'Evaluation d'Indicateurs Socio-Economiques et D?mographiques, National Survey of Socioeconomic and Demographic Indicators Festival international de la mode africaine, African Fashion International Festival Financial Inclusion Index Gross Domestic Product Household

Heavily Indebted Poor Countries International Bank for Reconstruction and Development International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas Information and Communication Technology International Development Association Identification for Development Initiative International Finance Corporation International Institute for Environment and Development International Monetary Fund Institut National de la Statistique, National Statistical Institute Integrated Regional Information Networks Integrated Soil Fertility Management International Telecommunication Union Laboratoire D'?tudes Et Recherches Sur Les Dynamiques Sociales Et Le D?veloppement Local, Laboratory of Studies and Research on Social Dynamics and Local Development World Bank's Global Dynamic CGE Model Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Millennium Challenge Corporation Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali Ministry of Health Soci?t? Nigerienne d'Electricit?, Electricity Company of Niger Nongovernmental Organization Ordinary Least Quares Office National des Am?nagements Hydro agricoles, National Hydro Agricultural Development Office Office des produits vivriers, Office of Food Products Programme d'Analyse des Syst?mes Educatifs de la CONFEMEN, Program Analysis of the CONFEMEN Education Systems Plan de D?veloppement Economique and Social, Economic and Social Development Plan Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Public Expenditure Review Performance Based Financing Public Financial Management

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PIMA PPP PNDS

QUIBB

RESEN

SAM SCD SDDEL

SDI SPCR SSA TFP TOR TVA UNDP USAID UNEP UNFPA UNESCO UNISDR UNHCR WAEMU WDI WFP WHO WRI

Public Investment Management Assessment Purchasing Power Parity Parti Nigerien pour la Democratie et le Socialisme, Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism Questionnaire Unifi? des Indicateurs de Base de Bien-?tre, Unified Questionnaire of Basic Indicators of Well-being Rapport d'Etat du Syst?me Educatif Nig?rien, State Report of the Nigerian Educational System Social Accounting Matrix Systematic Country Diagnostic Strat?gie de D?veloppement Durable de l'Elevage, Sustainable Livestock Development Strategy Service Delivery Indicator Strategic Program for Climate Resilience Niger Sub-Saharan Africa Total Factor Productivity Terms of Reference La taxe sur la valeur ajout?e, Value Added Tax United Nations Development Programme U. S. Agency for International Development United Nations Environment Programme United Nations Population Fund United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees West African Economic and Monetary Union World Development Indicators World Food Programme World Health Organization World Resource Institute

Vice President: Director: Manager: Task Team Leaders:

IDA Makhtar Diop Soukeyna Kane Andrew Dabalen Johannes Hoogeveen; Aly Sanoh; Luc Razafimandimby

IFC Dimitris Tsisiragos Vera Songwe Ronke-Amoni Ogunsilire Frank Douamba

MIGA Keiko Honda Merli Baroudi Dan Biller Conor Healy

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWORD .............................................................................................................................................vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ix 1. Introduction..........................................................................................................................................1 2. Poverty, Risks and Vulnerability .......................................................................................................8

2.1 Poverty and Poverty Trends...........................................................................................................8 2.2 Poverty Profile .............................................................................................................................12 2.3 Risks and Vulnerability ...............................................................................................................13 2.4 Poverty Traps...............................................................................................................................15 2.5 Climate Change ...........................................................................................................................19 3. Human Capital...................................................................................................................................23 3.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................23 3.2 Health...........................................................................................................................................25 3.3 Education .....................................................................................................................................30 4. Economy and Opportunities for Growth ........................................................................................36 4.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................36 4.2 Sources of Growth .......................................................................................................................38 4.3 Behind the Headline Numbers .....................................................................................................42 4.4 Policy Simulations .......................................................................................................................47 5. Governance.........................................................................................................................................50 5.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................50 5.2 Niger's Political Settlement .........................................................................................................52 5.3 Consequences of the Political Settlement ....................................................................................56 5.4 The Challenge of Reform ............................................................................................................59 6. Identifying and Prioritizing Pathways to Poverty Reduction........................................................62 6.1 The Challenge of Reducing Poverty in Niger..............................................................................62 6.2 Reducing Poverty by Increasing Productivity of Agriculture .....................................................66 6.3 Complementary Pathways to Reducing Poverty .........................................................................71 6.4 Binding Constraints .....................................................................................................................72 6.5 Additional Research Suggested ...................................................................................................90 Annex 1: OLS Regression of Log per Capita Consumption..................................................................96 Annex 2: Additional CGE simulations ....................................................................................................97 Annex 3: SCD Consultations ....................................................................................................................99

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