Project Concept Note - World Bank
Document of
The World Bank
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Report No: 47427-ET
PROJECT APPRAISAL document
ON A
PROPOSED Nile basin trust fund grant
IN THE AMOUNT OF US$ 3.48 MILLION
TO THE
eastern nile technical regional office
FOR A
EASTERN NILE Flood Preparedness and Early Warning PROJECT - phase 1
(FPEW I)
March 28, 2007
|This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may |
|not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. |
eastern nile technical regional office
EASTERN NILE Flood Preparedness and Early Warning PROJECT - phase 1 (FPEW I)
PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT
AFRICA
AFTNL
|Date: March 28, 2007 |Team Leader: E.V. Jagannathan |
|Country Director: Mark D. Tomlinson (Regional); Ishac Diwan (Ethiopia,|Sectors: Flood Protection (WD), General water, sanitation and flood |
|Sudan); Emmanuel Mbi (Egypt) |protection sector (WZ) |
|Sector Manager/Director: Ashok Subramanian//Michel Wormser |Themes: Natural Disaster Management (52); Water Resource Management |
|Project ID: P103518 |(85) |
|Lending Instrument: NBTF (RE) |Environmental Category: C. No safeguards reporting instruments |
| |required for the project. |
|Project Financing Data |
|[ ] Loan [ ] Credit [ ] Grant [ ] Guarantee |[X] Other: NBTF: Recipient Executed |
| |
|For Loans/Credits/Others: NBTF (RE) |
|Total NBTF financing (US$m.): 3.48 |
|Proposed terms: |
|Financing Plan (US$m) |
|Source |Local |Foreign |Total |
|BORROWER/RECIPIENT (ENTRO) |0.20 |0.00 |0.20 |
|NBTF (RE) |0.00 |3.48 |3.48 |
|Others (Governments of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan) |0.40 |0.00 |0.40 |
|Total: |0.60 |3.48 |4.08 |
| |
|Borrower: |
|Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office |
|P. O. Box 27173-1000 |
|Addis Ababa, Ethiopia |
|Tel: +251 11 6461130/6461132 Fax: +251 11 6459407 Email: entro@ |
| |
|Responsible Agency: |
|Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office |
|P. O. Box 27173-1000 |
|Addis Ababa, Ethiopia |
|Tel: +251 11 6461130/6461132 Fax: +251 11 6459407, Email: entro@ |
| |
|Estimated disbursements (Bank FY/US$m) |
|FY |FY07 |FY08 |FY09 |FY10 |
|Annual |0.1 |0.85 |1.35 |1.18 |
|Cumulative |0.1 |0.95 |2.30 |3.48 |
|Project implementation period: Start May 1, 2007 End: June 30, 2010 |
|Expected effectiveness date: May 31, 2007 |
|Expected closing date: June 30, 2010 |
|Does the project depart from the CAS in content or other significant respects? Ref. PAD A.3 |[ ]Yes [X] No |
|Does the project require any exceptions from Bank policies? Ref. PAD C.6 |[ ]Yes [X] No |
|Have these been approved by Bank management? |[ ]Yes [ ] No |
|Is approval for any policy exception sought from the Board? |[ ]Yes [ ] No |
|Does the project include any critical risks rated “substantial” or “high”? Ref. PAD C.5 |[ X]Yes [ ] No |
|Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Ref. PAD D.1-6 |[X]Yes [ ] No |
|Project development objective Ref. PAD B.2, Technical Annex 3 |
| |
|The specific objective of FPEW I is to establish a regional institutional basis and to strengthen the existing capacities of the EN countries |
|in flood forecasting, mitigation and management, promoting regional cooperation as well as to enhance the readiness of the EN countries to |
|subsequent implementation of the subsequent phases of FPEW projects |
|Project description [one-sentence summary of each component] Ref. PAD B.3.a, Technical Annex 4: |
|It comprises three key components, namely, (i) regional coordination, (ii) pilot flood preparedness and emergency response, and (iii) flood |
|forecasting warning and communication system. The regional coordination component will put in place an institutional mechanism for |
|establishing intercountry coordination. The pilot flood preparedness and emergency response component will strengthen flood preparedness and |
|flood mitigation planning at national and local levels through flood-risk mapping; assessment of information needs by the community for |
|effective response; and facilitate improved flood mitigation plans and mechanisms aimed at protecting property and assets. The flood |
|forecasting warning and communication system component is aimed at improving flood forecasting institutions and developing a detailed design |
|for EN flood forecasting, warning and communication system. |
|Which safeguard policies are triggered, if any? Ref. PAD D.6 |
| |
|The project does not trigger any safeguard policies. |
|Significant, non-standard conditions, if any, for: Ref. PAD C.6 |
|Grant Signing conditions: |
| |
|Actions on Positioning of key staff in RFCU: Shortlist of candidates completed. |
|Flood Risk Mapping Consultancies: ENTRO will issue the expression of interest and prepare the draft RFP. |
|A letter of commitment from the Eastern Nile Countries would be obtained by ENTRO and ENTRO will send it to the Bank. |
| |
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
(Exchange Rate Effective March 15, 2007)
|Currency Unit |= |Birr |
|1 US$ | |8.8427 |
FISCAL YEAR: FY 2008
|July 1, 2007 |- |June 30, 2008 |
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
|CAS |Country Assistance Strategy |
|CDO |Civil Defense Organization |
|DPPC |Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Committee |
|EIA |Environment Impact Assessment |
|EMF |Environment Management Framework |
|EN |Eastern Nile |
|ENCOM |Eastern Nile Council of Ministers |
|ENSAP |Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program |
|ENSAPT |Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program Team |
|ENTRO |Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office |
|ESMF |Environment and Social Management Framework |
|FAD |Finance and Administration |
|FPEW |Flood Preparedness and Early Warning |
|FPEW |Flood Preparedness and Early Warning |
|HAD |High Aswan Dam |
|IC |Individual Consultant |
|IDA |International Development Association |
|IFR |Interim Un-audited Financial Report |
|JMP |Joint Multi-purpose Program |
|M&E |Monitoring and Evaluation |
|MOIWR |Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources |
|MOWR |Ministry of Water Resources |
|NBI |Nile Basin Initiative |
|NBTF |Nile Basin Trust Fund |
|NCB |National Competitive Bidding |
|NFC |National Flood Coordinator |
|NFPIs |National Focal Point Institutions |
|NIs |National Institutions |
|NRI |Nile River Institute |
|PAD |Project Appraisal Document |
|QCBS |Quality-cum-Cost Based Selection |
|RFC |Regional Flood Coordinator |
|RFCU |Regional Flood Coordination Unit |
|RFCU |Regional Flood Coordination Unit |
|RPF |Resettlement Policy Framework |
|RWG |Regional Working Group |
|RWG |Regional Working Group |
|SSS |Single Source Selection |
|Vice President: | |Hartwig, Schafer (AFR); Daniela Gressani (MENA) |
|Country Director: | |Mark D. Tomlinson (Regional); Ishac Diwan (Ethiopia, Sudan); |
| | |Emmanuel Mbi (Egypt) |
|Country Manager | | |
|Sector Manager: | |Ashok K. Subramanian (AFTNL) |
|Task Team Leader: | |E. V. Jagannathan (AFTNL) |
Africa
Eastern nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning project
Phase 1 (FPEW I)
Contents
Page
A. STRATEGIC CONTEXT AND RATIONALE 1
1. Multi-country and sector issues 1
2. Rationale for Bank involvement 2
3. Higher level objectives to which the project contributes 2
B. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 3
1. Lending instrument 3
2. Project development objective and key indicators 3
3. Project components 4
4. Lessons learned and reflected in the project design 7
5. Alternatives considered and reasons for rejection 8
C. IMPLEMENTATION 8
1. Partnership arrangements 8
2. Institutional and implementation arrangements 8
3. Monitoring and evaluation of outcomes/results 9
4. Sustainability 9
5. Critical risks and possible controversial aspects 10
6. Grant conditions and implementation readiness 11
D. APPRAISAL SUMMARY 11
1. Economic and financial analyses 11
2. Technical 12
3. Fiduciary 12
4. Social 12
5. Environment 13
6. Safeguard policies 13
Annex 1: Country and Sector Background 14
Annex 2: Major Related Projects Financed by the Bank and/or other Agencies 20
Annex 3: Results Framework and Monitoring 22
Annex 4: Detailed Project Description 29
Annex 5: Project Costs 39
Annex 6: Implementation Arrangements 42
Annex 7: Financial Management and Disbursement Arrangements 45
Annex 8: Procurement 54
Annex 9: Project Preparation and Supervision 62
Annex 10: Documents in the Project File 64
Annex 11: Country at a Glance 65
Annex 12: Map 72
1 STRATEGIC CONTEXT AND RATIONALE
1. Multi-country and sector issues
The Eastern Nile (EN) comprises major river systems that originate in the Ethiopian highlands in the east, flow to the west into Sudan where they join the Main Nile and finally flow through Egypt to the Mediterranean Sea. Major river systems are the Abbay-Blue-Main Nile, Tekeze–Setit-Atbara, and Baro-Akobo-Sobat. Inter and intra-annual variations of streamflows are high with almost 80-85% of the rainfall occurring during the months June - September. Thus, concomitant with negligible flood storage in the region (except for Aswan Dam) and low capacity for national and regional flood management, the countries in the EN region are vulnerable to floods. The extensive floodplains of Sudan and areas of Ethiopia are particularly at risk. In the last decade, Sudan for example has suffered from major floods in 1994, 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2002. Potential climate changes may also impact the frequency and scale of future flooding in the EN.
These major floods directly result in loss of livelihoods, particularly for the poor who frequently inhabit the vulnerable floodplain areas, and can cause significant economic damages. Floods can result in loss of crops and livestock, loss of property, displacement of communities, deterioration of health conditions, and disruption of social life. For instance, the flood of 1999 in the EN resulted in damages estimated at US$450 million. In Sudan, there are 197 communities along the Blue and Main Niles that suffer flood damages on a regular basis. In Ethiopia as many as 600 people have died, more than 35,000 people have fled their homes, and more than 118,000 people were affected by the recent floods of 2006 in various ways. In Sudan, Sennar State, floods had swept over several regions of the State. The number of houses destroyed by floods in Sudan could reach over three thousand in addition to destruction of agricultural products along the Blue Nile banks. Over the longer term, repeated economic disruptions associated with flooding undermines national poverty alleviation efforts, disrupts sustained economic growth, and will continue to be a source of risk that inhibits investment in economic activity.
Despite the impacts and transboundary nature of river flooding in the Eastern Nile, while there is some flood warning activity in individual countries, there is no integrated or cooperative flood warning system for the Eastern Nile Basin. Moreover, current flood mitigation efforts largely focus on emergency response during major disasters. Floodplain management activities to reduce the susceptibility to flooding are also limited at the national level and there are no mechanisms to collaboratively identify or plan mitigation measures at the regional level. Advance warning of imminent flood events to floodplain dwellers at the community level is limited and often ineffective.
Improved capabilities to monitor and forecast rainfall and flow, particularly in the highland areas, coupled with agreed mechanisms to disseminate information regionally during critical periods could provide increased warning time downstream. This information, along with well-planned flood preparedness programs in each country, can reduce flood-related damage, human suffering, and loss of life in the region. Regional cooperation would greatly enhance the flood management in all Eastern Nile countries and provide critical experience in joint river management. This will lay a solid foundation for broader regional cooperation in integrated water resources management.
The Nile Basin Initiative
The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), launched in February 1999, is a regional initiative of the riparian states of the Nile[1] and provides a framework to fight poverty and promote sustainable development through improved integrated water resources management at the basin level. The Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP), which includes Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, is an investment oriented sub-basin level program. Due to the devastating impacts of hydrologic variability on the people and economies in the region, in March 2001, the Eastern Nile Council of Ministers (ENCOM) requested that funding be sought to advance work in flood management. The Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW) is an agreed project within ENSAP to take joint action on the problems of flood management in the EN. In October 2004, ENCOM decided to fast-track the FPEW project to show tangible results of Nile Basin collaboration on the ground. In 2006 it was decided to phase the implementation of FPEW, with the first phase – FPEW I – focused on building the institutional capacity and developing critical baseline information to enhance the readiness of EN countries to implement subsequent FPEW phases. The proposed project (FPEW I) has evolved from national and regional consultations, and has been prepared by national and regional teams. The project was endorsed by ENCOM in its 22nd Meeting in Cairo on September 18, 2006.
2. Rationale for Bank involvement
The Bank has been actively engaged in supporting the NBI since its inception as a means of promoting regional stability and cooperation, and unlocking the development potential of the Nile. The FPEW I project is particularly appropriate for Bank support due to the transboundary nature of flooding, the potential to visibly demonstrate the benefits of regional cooperation, and the potential to directly impact the poor. Given its involvement and support to the NBI, the Bank is uniquely placed to assist the country in developing the project and its participation is expected to leverage additional financing from the Government and other international donors for subsequent phases of the FPEW project. The main rationale for Bank’s involvement is its ability to manage the risks associated with financing the envisaged investments, as well as its access to expertise to provide technical assistance in areas of flood management and in building critically needed institutional capacity. The regional institution proposed under the project would serve as an initial pilot for the planned regional joint multi-purpose institutional development under identification under the NBI framework. Finally some of the project elements of this and subsequent phases of the project are likely to be subsumed under country specific Bank supported projects/programs.
3. Higher level objectives to which the project contributes
Support to the NBI is an element of the interim country assistance strategies (ICAS) of Ethiopia (May 2006) and Egypt (June 2001), and the country economic memorandum for Sudan (June 2003), as a means of addressing water resources and environmental issues, as well as reducing poverty and mitigating conflict. Realizing gains from cooperation and regional integration is implicit in Bank’s development strategy for this region. Moreover, a key message of the Bank’s water sector strategy[2] is the importance of striking the appropriate balance between the management of water resources and the development of water infrastructure. While the FPEW I will focus on enhancing institutional/community planning of flood preparedness/management to improve water management, it will initiate development of data base to assess potential flood damages (through pilot flood risk mapping) and lay the groundwork for identifying possible transboundary non-structural/small structural options for flood mitigation to be taken up under FPEW-II.
2 PROJECT DESCRIPTION
1. Lending instrument
The project is financed through a grant of around US$3.48 million from the multi-donor Nile Basin Trust Fund (NBTF) administered by the World Bank. In-kind contributions from the EN countries/ENTRO are estimated to account for US$0.6 million.
2. Project development objective and key indicators
The development objective of the overall FPEW project (FPEW I and its follow-on phase FPEW II) is to reduce human suffering and damages, as well as capture the benefits of excess flood waters resulting from flooding in the Eastern Nile. FPEW I will contribute directly to the development objective of the FPEW. The specific objective of FPEW I is to establish a regional institutional basis and to strengthen the existing capacities of the EN countries in flood forecasting, mitigation and management, promoting regional cooperation as well as to enhance the readiness of the EN countries to subsequent implementation of the subsequent phases of FPEW projects . It will prepare the foundation for FPEW II implementation in terms of institutional settings and data/information collections/sharing at community and national levels, together with enhancing regional coordination and cooperation.
Key performance indicators for FPEW I will include:
• An established and operational regional flood coordination unit (RFCU)
• Pilot non-structural flood preparedness and emergency response activities implemented and assessed
• Piloting/establish detailed specifications for a regional flood forecast, warning, and communication system completed
• Database/mechanism for regional data sharing on floods operational
• Flood risk mapping in pilot areas prepared
3. Project components
FPEW I is planned for 3 years of implementation and will overlap with the first two years of FPEW II. It comprise three key components, namely, regional coordination (US$1.69 M), pilot flood preparedness and emergency response ($1.26 M), and flood forecasting warning and communication system (US$1.02 M).
a. Regional Coordination (US$ 1.69 M)
The immediate objective of this component is to put in place an institutional mechanism for enhancing regional coordination for the flood project. The regional coordination is aimed at (i) managing and implementing day to day current and future preparation/implementation phases of FPEW; (ii) coordination of data collection and analysis from the EN countries, together with other IDEN projects; (iii) functioning as a platform for experience sharing and capacity building; (iv) liaising between donors, consultants and EN countries; (v) coordinating common activities between the flood and other projects planned under integrated development of Eastern Nile (IDEN); and (vi) managing FPEW II project preparation and implementation.
The outputs and activities under this component are:
• Establish a Regional Flood Coordination Unit (RFCU) located in Khartoum (Sudan) as a sub-office of ENTRO. This requires an establishment agreement between ENTRO and the Government of Sudan similar to the one ENTRO has with the Government of Ethiopia with the privileges it enjoys as in Ethiopia. It is expected that for such agreements to be in place it may take around a year. Hence the RFCU will function from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) as a transitional institution to be shifted to Sudan as soon as this agreement and other readiness arrangements are concluded. ENTRO has prepared a draft check list to assess the readiness of moving its sub-office to Sudan. ENTRO will finalize the check list and review the check list periodically in order to decide the date of moving to Sudan. ENTRO will inform ENSAPT/ENCOM accordingly. Adequate budget provision for this additionality has been provided for in the project cost under ENTRO administrative support cost. The RFCU will also assist in the strengthening of national flood warning centers through facilitation of the exchange and dissemination of vital flood-related information for use at national level as well as through the provision of a mechanism for sharing of knowledge and technical skills across regions.
• Conduct EN Annual Flood Forums to facilitate sharing of experiences among practitioners, planners, and scientists within the region and (where possible) from other river basins world-wide (such as Mekong River Basin).
• Establish a web-based database of flood related data.
• Information and experience exchange through workshops/ study visits.
• Carry out regional analysis and special studies (e.g. development of a robust regionally-based methodology for flood damage assessment; assessment of the effectiveness of existing and planned regulation works on flood mitigation and their implications for reservoir operation; determination of the incidence and characteristics of flash floods; development of a flood risk reduction strategy for flood-prone areas along the Baro-Akob-Sobat rivers; facilitated development of State and local flood response plans).
b. Pilot Flood Preparedness and Emergency Response (US$1.26 M)
Identifying and mapping at-risk communities including the extent of flooding and the location of high risk areas is a basic input to flood response planning as well as to analyses aimed at identifying appropriate flood mitigation measures. It is also a major input to determining community vulnerability. A priori knowledge of the likely extent and depth of expected flooding as well as knowledge of the types of assets and activities located within the floodplain are essential. Without such information and the plans to guide response in the event of a flood, the full benefits of river height forecasts cannot be realized. Flood emergency response in the EN is currently, by and large, reactive and ad hoc. This component will strengthen flood preparedness and flood mitigation planning at national and local levels through:
• Flood-risk mapping.
• Assessment of information needs by the community for effective response.
• Facilitation of improved flood mitigation plans and mechanisms aimed at protecting property and assets.
• Development and evaluation of effectiveness (including beneficiary assessment) of community flood preparedness and response plans.
The pilot activities under community flood preparedness and response plans will include facilitating and assisting selected communities in developing local and higher level flood management and response plans, testing warning dissemination methodologies within selected communities with regard to timeliness and delivery to those who need to know; and improving community understanding and interpretation of warning information, etc. Further possible pilot implementation activities will be added as more information is generated through on-going project preparation on FPEW II. No structural measures for flood mitigation are envisaged as part of FPEW I. This activity will involve a three step process., viz., (a) determining the information needed by the community for effective response aimed at ensuring that flood forecast and warning system development is driven both bottom up as well as top down and that it delivers what is needed to enable an effective response ahead of expected flooding; (b) facilitating development of community response plans – will involve the provision of technical and other assistance to streamline local development of plans; and (c) evaluating effectiveness of plans and process – will involve a process of participatory evaluation and address the effectiveness of the activities in terms of flood damages avoided and community well-being. The local governments (mahaliyas in Sudan and woredas in Ethiopia) will be closely linked to piloting community flood preparedness and mitigation plans to ensure that appropriate linkages at the ground level are developed for adoption of the plans at local level.
c. Flood Forecasting, Warning and Communication Systems (US$ 1.02 M)
This component is aimed at improving flood forecasting institutions and developing a detailed design for EN flood forecasting, warning and communication system. The communications element of a flood forecast and warning system is essential to its operation and the reduction of flood damages. Data has to be acquired and transmitted to the forecast center (and in some cases to the at-risk communities as well) and the resulting forecast transmitted to the local area for interpretation, value addition and disseminated to those who need to take action. The effectiveness of the system depends not only on the accuracy of the raw data and forecast but also on the lead time available to take action before the flood begins to affect the area. The design will also be based on a rapid assessment of the current communication channels from the local to the regional/national levels (formal/informal) as informed by the preparation consultants for FPEW II to target future efforts better. The design will also factor steps to enhance the communication links between upstream and downstream users.
To strengthen national flood forecasting and warning capabilities this component will:
• Enhance current flood forecasting institution and support the establishment of a new flood forecasting institution of Ethiopia.
• Enhance data acquisition and communication equipment by refining flood forecast, warning and communication system requirements; identifying appropriate approaches, technologies and equipment; and piloting these at selected communities and/or locations.
• Prepare a detailed system design for a regional flood forecast, warning, and communication system and tender documentation for the EN.
• Enhance the communication links directly between upstream and downstream residents.
• Rapidly assess the current communication channel from the local to the regional/national levels (both formal and informal) to improve effectiveness of these channels.
Summary of the project components is given in Table 1.
Table 1 Summary of Project Components for FPEW I
|Components |Outcomes |Outputs |Activities |
|Regional Coordination |Establishment of a |1. Regional Flood Coordination Unit (RFCU)|Establish RFCU protocols and operational guidelines |
| |regional flood | |Establish staff and equip the RFCU (including transition |
| |coordination | |to Khartoum). |
| |mechanism and | | |
| |enhanced | | |
| |flood-related | | |
| |information and | | |
| |data exchange among| | |
| |the EN countries | | |
| |and strengthened | | |
| |transboundary flood| | |
| |management | | |
| | |2. Annual Flood Forums |Build professional network and share knowledge. |
| | | |Facilitate participation in international flood forums. |
| | |3. Flood Information Database |Design and agree on web-based database |
| | | |Collect, collate, process, quality assured data and load |
| | | |data in databases. |
| | |4. Information and Experience Exchange |Identify key knowledge gaps. |
| | | |Develop training modules and deliver workshops. |
| | | |Conduct selected study visits/workshops |
| | |5. Regional Analysis and Special Studies |Identify needs for special studies. |
| | | |Conduct special studies. |
|Pilot Flood |Reduced |1. Flood Risk Mapping commenced |1.1 Prepare digital flood risk maps. |
|Preparedness and |vulnerability of | | |
|Emergency Response |flood prone | | |
| |communities | | |
| | |2. Community Flood Preparedness and |2.1 Determine information needed by the community for |
| | |Response Plans |effective response. |
| | | |2.2 Facilitate development of community response plans |
| | | |2.3 Evaluate effectiveness of plans and process for the |
| | | |non-structural measures put in place (guidelines, wireless|
| | | |communication, etc.) |
|Flood Forecasting, |Detailed design of |Strengthen National Flood Forecast and |Refine flood forecast, warning and communication system |
|Warning and |EN Flood |Warning Systems |requirements |
|Communication System |Forecasting, | |Identify appropriate approaches, technologies and |
| |Warning and | |equipment |
| |Communication | |Procure and install for pilot communities (simple |
| |System | |communication equipment, staff gauges, stilling wells, |
| | | |current meters etc.) |
| | | |Enhance current forecasting institutions and initiate new |
| | | |one in Ethiopia. |
| | |2. Detailed Design of Regional Flood |2.1 Refine functional specifications from consultant’s |
| | |Forecast, Warning and Communication System|outputs of project preparation |
| | | |2.2 Undertake necessary field work |
| | | |2.3 Prepare detailed design and tender documents |
4. Lessons learned and reflected in the project design
Preliminary work completed have shown that (i) flow of data/ information across countries is critical for developing a robust flood management strategy; and (ii) that for robust project design, details built on local experimentation/knowledge are critical. Therefore, while the initial project concept note for the FPEW did envision phasing of the project it did not specify the details. The same has been proposed now. FPEW I will establish a regional flood coordination unit to develop processes, procedures and protocols for exchange of flood related data/information across the EN countries. This will lead to pilots for flood preparedness and emergency response and will provide the initial institutional foundation and capacity to build confidence in the EN region so that future projects can be implemented rapidly and effectively. Moreover, as FPEW is the first regional project to be implemented by the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO), a phased approach to implementation will strengthen the institutional foundation to implement complex multi-country projects.
5. Alternatives considered and reasons for rejection
The Eastern Nile is broad in geographical scope and the nature of flooding varies across the region. A larger bundled FPEW project was initially considered. Experience has shown that institution development so critical for project implementation and sustainability takes considerable time before attaining full functionality and hence needs to be initiated as early as possible in project development phase. In addition, development of an information base based on piloting and collection/analysis of basic data/information would enhance robustness in design and implementation of future phases of the project. Hence, in an effort to quickly establish the necessary institutional and informational foundations, a more focused and selective FPEW I project is designed. FPEW I aims to support the accelerated and comprehensive implementation of subsequent FPEW projects.
3 IMPLEMENTATION
1. Partnership arrangements
No formal partnerships with entities beyond NBI are envisioned. However, the European Union which has contributed to the NBTF, has expressed its strong interest and support of this project. Other partners who support the NBI have expressed interest in subsequent phases of the FPEW.
2. Institutional and implementation arrangements
FPEW I will be executed by ENTRO. ENTRO will sign a Grant Agreement with the World Bank and thus be responsible for the coordination of all activities, procurement of equipment and consultants, and management of funds. ENTRO will have final responsibility for the quality of outputs and will work in close cooperation with both the Bank’s Nile Team in supervising the activities and with the already identified National Flood Coordinators in the MoIWR (Sudan), MoWR (Ethiopia) and MoIWR (Egypt).
The Regional Flood Coordination Unit (refer section II C 1) will be established and equipped with basic facilities (basic IT equipment, office facilities, dedicated line for internet connection, etc). The unit will be headed by the Regional Flood Coordinator (long term consultant also driving the FPEW project) with support provided by two full time staff (also long term consultants), who will be competitively hired from the region (a Hydrometeorologist and an IT/GIS person). Functions such as finance, procurement, and administration, formal external communication, protocols, and donor liaison, will be undertaken within the existing ENTRO organization according to existing modes of operation.
ENTRO’s administrative support cost amounting to US$330,000 includes costs related to RFCU office support (including the additional funding to shift the office to Khartoum) such as electricity, telephones, internet, office space, fax, photocopying, as well as procurement, financial and administrative support. This anticipated requirement for the project period is approximately 8% of the project cost and appears reasonable.
Activities at national level would be supported by the National Focal Point Institutions (NFPIs) in the respective Ministries of Water Affairs and will be headed by the National Flood Coordinator (which is part of the overall ENSAP arrangement). The NFPIs will suitably interact with other national level institutions (through committees/working groups) to implement the project at country levels. The data sharing/logistics commitment from each country would be ensured through a formal commitment by each country. Countries will provide counterpart staff to support project activities within their territories, through letters of commitment from each country. ENTRO has agreed on a draft of the letter of commitment which will be sent to the countries and signed off before grant signing (See Annex 6 for details).
3. Monitoring and evaluation of outcomes/results
Overall monitoring and coordination of project activities will be performed by ENTRO. Following the NBI-Secretariat’s introduction of result based planning for the NBI, ENTRO has initiated the introduction of this system in the preparation of its work plans and reports. In order to spearhead M&E activities, ENTRO has budgeted to engage a locally recruited M & E Officer to come on board by the beginning of March 2007. The officer will support M&E activities for all ENSAP/ENTRO projects including the FPEW I (initially, this specialist may provide substantial input for FPEW I before other projects come on board for implementation). ENTRO also plans to conduct a training workshop on M&E in 2007 for its officers and EN National Project coordinators. ENTRO will consider strengthening its monitoring and evaluation operations depending on how future projects unfold. The monitoring and evaluation framework as included in the project proposal of FPEW I (Annex 3) will be the basis on which the M&E framework will be developed by this M&E officer. In addition, the Bank will carry out the normal review procedures for procurement and conduct regular supervision missions. Supervision will also include the review of Interim Un-audited Financial Reports quarterly reports provided by ENTRO, independent annual financial audits of the project and financial statements of ENTRO. The Bank will also carry out a mid-term review.
4. Sustainability
The Project represents a long-term investment in the future welfare of the populations of the three Eastern Nile countries. The institutional development proposed under the project has a strong commitment from the EN countries and ENTRO plans to get a specific letter of commitment from each of the EN countries on counterpart support as well as long term sustainability of the project recurrent activities and benefits. The institutional set-up will also feed into the regional institution which may evolve to implement the Joint Multi-Purpose program. The Project has also been designed to take into account long-term issues of capacity building and empowerment at the community level for better flood preparedness as well as emergency response during severe events so as to reduce flood losses and achieve Project benefits. Similarly, well planned and funded specialized training programs for professional staff at both the local, national and regional levels is essential to ensuring Project sustainability.
5. Critical risks and possible controversial aspects
Nile cooperation stalls. Although cooperation between the Eastern Nile countries has grown significantly the past few years, the risk remains that dialogue will break down. The risk is deemed modest. Commitment to the NBI is evident at the highest political levels and there is tremendous pressure to successfully implement Nile investment projects as a tangible demonstration of cooperation benefits.
Appropriate balance between national and regional needs not achieved. This project requires balancing of regional and varied national needs and interests. Ameliorating floodplain damages is critical in Sudan; upgrading its gauging system and improving water management capabilities is important to Ethiopia; and, Egypt’s focus is on improving flood forecasting and High Aswan Dam operations. Project success requires meeting these needs, while maintaining a transboundary perspective and enhancing regional cooperation. This risk is considered modest, as it can be addressed through consensus building efforts and careful project design.
EN countries unwilling to share information. Sharing of information is historically a sensitive issue in the Nile Basin, particularly among Eastern Nile countries. This is the first Nile project that requires sharing information on a real-time, operational basis. This risk is deemed substantial. Sensitivity to the issue, and recognition that increasing levels of information exchange will likely evolve as trust grows, will be critical. The project design, particularly of the forecasting system, will need to build in mechanisms to ensure compatibility and flexibility for evolving levels of information exchange over time. The FPEW I focus on early establishment of mechanisms to share information and experience is a critical first step in this direction. In the project proposal approved by ENCOM in its 22nd Meeting in September, 2006, the commitment from the countries on data sharing is implicit; however, ENTRO proposes to obtain a specific letter from the EN countries for their commitment to data sharing before signing of the Grant. In implementation of later phases of FPEW this will later be enshrined into a memorandum of understanding. The project will also be aligned with the Eastern Nile Planning Model (ENPM) and the Nile Basin Decision Support System (NBDSS). A one system inventory is already in place and under NBDSS an information sharing protocol is already under development. Hopefully all these will lead to convergence on support to data sharing.
Implementation problem in conflict ridden areas. There is an issue of extending project activities to areas such as Gambella (in Ethiopia) which has an access problem due to the prevailing security situation. However the initial focus of activities of FPEW I is on institution building/strengthening and hence this issue may not be critical in the initial stages. Extension of activities to this area will of course be subjected to easing of the tension in this area. This will be reviewed during project implementation.
Project financing for future FPEW activities. For the current project (FPEW-I) full commitment of resources has been made by the NBTF. However, funding for subsequent phases still remains a challenge. Although a priority ENSAP ‘fast-track’ project, the FPEW is not a typical infrastructure project. Each EN country has different financing challenges. Financing will also be required for regional, as well as national, elements of the project. This risk for subsequent phase of the project is considered substantial. Although full funding FPEW-II has not yet been secured, a combination of instruments at the World Bank is being pursued. New instruments for regional projects, such as the Catalytic Fund, are being explored. Some national components such as in Ethiopia will be spun-off as part of a Tana-Beles Integrated Water Resources Development Project. In addition, bi-lateral donors (such as the Netherlands and the UK) and other international financial institutions have expressed interest in the project. However, as the financing issues are complex, they require special attention and are being taken into consideration during the preparation process of subsequent phase. ENTRO has already initiated actions to explore avenues to raise funds.
6. Grant conditions and implementation readiness
Grant Signing conditions:
• Actions on positioning of key staff in RFCU: Staffing RFCU at the earliest would be critical to project start-up operations. It was agreed that selections for the positions of the Regional Flood Coordinator; Hydrometeorologist, IT/GIS specialist would be completed by June 30, 2007. However, ENTRO will complete shortlisting of candidates by the time of signing of the grant agreement.
• Flood risk mapping consultancies: Given the criticality of this task, it was agreed that the procurement process (QCBS) will be expedited. ENTRO will issue the expression of interest and prepare the draft RFP before signing the Grant Agreement.
• Letter of commitment: FPEW I is probably the first project under ENSAP advancing to implementation. The key aspect of the project is that the EN Countries and ENTRO will cooperatively undertake this project from its current phase of preparation to implementation and will ensure that the project objectives are duly met. While a memorandum of understanding outlining the roles and responsibilities of ENTRO and the Countries in project implementation and sustainability would be a clear demonstration of commitment; it was agreed that a letter of commitment outlining the general, institutional, financial and data sharing responsibilities of each country would be a good starting point for this project implementation, given the need to start the project early. A draft letter of such commitment has already been finalized. It was agreed that this letter would be obtained by ENTRO and ENTRO will send it to the Bank before signing the grant agreement.
4 APPRAISAL SUMMARY
1. Economic and financial analyses
EN basin suffers major floods causing average annual damages of about US$ 53 million for 1% annual exceedence probability (AEP) flood event (100-year flood). Annual growth in damage costs and increasing frequency and scale of major floods since 1990s implies significant loss of life and economic damages in a ‘business as usual’ scenario and therefore, benefits for coordinated flood prevention and early warning investments now can only be greater and growing over time. The flood of 2006 has clearly demonstrated that the opportunity cost of not planning ahead is very high. But for cost effective designing and implementation of flood prevention and early warning interventions, regional/national/community level institutions are critical but currently limited by lacking capacities and weak linkages. Proposed flood mitigation structures will minimize the future damages to the protected areas. Effective response, preparedness, forecasting, warning and communication systems will help in exploiting the existing as well as improved lead time to the benefit of flood prone communities. Setting-up regional institutional mechanisms, pilot testing community level interventions, and strengthening the flood database are planned in FPEW I. Anticipated most likely benefits from FPEW I for FPEW II are cost-effective design and implementation of the activities, early realization of project benefits, and quick up-scaling of the tested interventions for maximizing the benefits. Realizing even any one of these benefits can be expected to far outweigh the proposed project cost of US $ 4.08 million in FPEW I.
2. Technical
The project will see the establishment of a Regional Flood Coordination Unit (RFCU), to be located initially at ENTRO (Addis) and later moved to a newly created sub-office in Sudan (Khartoum) aimed at enhancing regional cooperation in flood forecasting and management matters while assisting in the strengthening of national flood warning centers. A check list for assessment of readiness requirement to shift the office has been developed by ENTRO and these requirements will be ensured before the formal move of the office. A number of flood preparedness and emergency response activities (e.g. flood risk mapping, community flood preparedness and response plans) will be piloted in cooperation with communities in target areas recommended through the initial social baseline studies and as further refined by the FPEW II project preparation consultants during project preparation. National and community based flood forecast, warning and communication requirements will also be refined and a functional specification along with detailed design and tender documents will be prepared for the (regionally based) rainfall and river level measuring stations required to support national flood forecasting activities.
3. Fiduciary
The overall responsibility for the financial management of the Grant rests with ENTRO. ENTRO is now managed by strong management team. The Finance and Administration Department (FAD) has experienced and qualified staff to handle the financial management of the Grant. ENTRO is in the process of updating its accounting system by installing new accounting software-Microsoft Solomon and also revising its financial management manual. ENTRO will open a Designated Account (DA) in US dollars at a commercial Bank on terms and conditions that are satisfactory to the Bank. The DA will be managed by ENTRO. The annual audited financial statements, along with the management letter, will be submitted to IDA not later than six months after the end of the fiscal year. The external auditors are expected to issue a single audit opinion on the consolidated financial statements of ENTRO, including financial transactions of the Grant.
4. Social
The project has carried out a detailed upstream social analysis on flood affected communities in Sudan and Ethiopia. This analysis was done at project identification and provided an excellent picture of flood impacts, community needs, and institutional gaps. This information was operationalized to inform project processes such as selection criteria for target communities, identification of vulnerable sub-groups, identification of community initiatives etc. The social analysis has been central in restructuring project design to focus on flood management and communication of information to communities. The process of conducting the social analysis has been field based and involved intense consultations with communities and relevant government and civil society bodies. The social analysis has brought out the need for investing in organization of communities to respond to floods at all stages, i.e. before, during and after floods. The analysis has informed project design with regard to identification of target groups and suggested priority areas. The analysis highlighted gaps in the current arrangement where community support is reactive, limited to collaborating on the physical responses to flood protection and relatively independent of government efforts. Derived from this analysis, FPEW I has a focus activity of investing in community training and capacity building to develop and implement flood management plans. An area that has been brought into focus has been the need to link government forecasting methods with community level low-tech methods. This will be piloted in the FPEW I implementation. This up-front work has made it possible to draft the FPEW I proposal with pilot flood preparedness and emergency response activities that will inform the FPEW II project.
5. Environment
FPEW I does not include any structural measures, except the installation of community communication devices for flood warning, such as colored flood warning poles, etc. No civil works activities will be supported through the project. No safeguards are being triggered and the project is considered a category C. Overall this start up project (FPEW I ) aims at enhancing capacities of the Eastern Nile countries in flood mitigation and management, promoting regional cooperation, and enhancing the readiness of the EN countries for the subsequent FPEW II implementation. The FPEW II (separate PAD) will include the support to community sub-projects for which an ESMF will be prepared and small to medium structural measures to prevent or mitigate urban flooding for which an EIA and EMF will be required. Specifically, FPEW I will enhance forecasting capacities, flood mapping, and communication of this information to communities. It will contribute to decreasing the likelihood of human suffering and hazards during flood events. The current project, therefore, contributes to decreasing the harmful impacts of floods on people, assets, and the environment, while maintaining positive side effects of floods.
6. Safeguard policies
The FPEW I project does not trigger any safeguards. A RPF and ESMF are being prepared for phase 2 of the project to mitigate any impacts resulting from small scale physical interventions.
Annex 1: Country and Sector Background
Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
(FPEW I)
Ethiopia Country Background
Much of the Ethiopian landmass is part of the East African Rift Plateau. The general elevation in the country ranges from 1,500 to 3,000 meters above sea level. Interspersed on the landscape are higher mountain ranges and cratered cones, the highest of which, at 4,620 meters, is Ras Dashen Terara northeast of Gonder. The northernmost part of the plateau is Ethiopia's historical core and is the location of the ancient kingdom of Aksum.
Millennia of erosion have produced steep valleys, in places 1,600 meters deep and several kilometers wide. In these valleys flow rapid streams unsuitable for navigation but possessing potential as sources of hydroelectric power and water for irrigation.
The highlands that comprise much of the country are often referred to as the Ethiopian Plateau and are usually thought of as divided into northern and southern parts. In a strict geographical sense, however, they are bisected by the Great Rift Valley into the northwestern highlands and the southeastern highlands, each with associated lowlands. The northwestern highlands are considerably more extensive and rugged and are divided into northern and southern sections by the valley of the Abbey (Blue Nile).
The Great Rift Valley forms a third physiographic region. This extensive fault system extends from the Jordan Valley in the Middle East to the Zambezi River's Shire tributary in Mozambique. The segment running through central Ethiopia is marked in the north by the Denakil Depression and the coastal lowlands, or Afar Plain, as they are sometimes known. To the south, at approximately 9° north latitude, the Great Rift Valley becomes a deep trench slicing through the plateau from north to south, its width averaging fifty kilometers. The southern half of the Ethiopian segment of the valley is dotted by a chain of relatively large lakes. Some hold fresh water, fed by small streams from the east; others contain salts and minerals.
In contrast with the plateau's steep scarps along the Great Rift Valley and in the north, the western and southwestern slopes descend somewhat less abruptly and are broken more often by river exits. Between the plateau and the Sudanese border in the west lies a narrow strip of sparsely populated tropical lowland that belongs politically to Ethiopia but whose inhabitants are related to the people of Sudan. These tropical lowlands on the periphery of the plateau, particularly in the far north and along the western frontier, contrast markedly with the upland terrain.
All of Ethiopia's rivers originate in the highlands and flow outward in many directions through deep gorges. Most notable of these is the Blue Nile (Abbay), the country's largest river. The Blue Nile and its tributaries account for two-thirds of the Nile River flow below Khartoum.
Ethiopia Flood-Risk Assessment
Generally, rivers flow in deep and steep gorges, and riverine flooding is a phenomenon close to the borders with neighboring countries, where the river bed is flat and drainage area large. Exception to this is, obviously, the Awash, which, for most of its length, is ‘inland’. Flood-prone areas have been identified by the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC), the predecessor of the current Disaster Prevention and Rehabilitation Commission (DDPC) (Figure 1):
- Areas along the Wabe Shebele River from the village Imi to Mustahil
- Areas along the Baro River between the town of Gambella and the border town of Jikao
- Various areas along the Awash River (Teji area, Wenji, Amibara, Asaiyta)
- The area east of Lake Tana where rivers Ribb and Gumara flow into the lake
- The lower reaches of Omo River
In Ethiopia as many as 600 people have died, more than 35,000 people have fled their homes, and more than 118,000 people were affected by the recent floods of 2006 in various ways.
Figure 1: Major flood prone areas in Ethiopia
[pic]
Sudan Country Background
In the Sudan, quite a large number of localities are affected by riverine as well as flash floods. The number of states affected by flood disasters varies from year to year, depending upon, among others, magnitude of flood peaks, local rainfall and likelihood of combined effect, etc. In general, however, the following eleven states face frequent (riverine) flooding disaster from time to time: Kassala, White Nile, Blue Nile, Sennar, Khartoum, Gezira, River Nile, Northern, Unity, Upper Nile, and Bahr Elgebel (Figure 2). In these states, the areas around the major rivers are the ones that are affected most. If flash floods are considered, the number of states affected by the flood disaster becomes higher. Riverine floods occur in the Nile river system and are a relatively gradual phenomenon. Water levels rises are typically in the range of a few centimeters per day, but during the flood faster rises have been observed. The water level could rise up to 1.0 meter or more in a day.
Figure 2: Sudan – Flood-prone States (Riverine flood)
[pic]
Sudan Flooding Extents and Areal Coverage
Over the last ten years, Sudan was subject to heavy floods in 1994, 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2002. The impact of these floods was displacement of large communities, loss of agricultural crops, damage to agricultural inputs such as seeds and pumps, deterioration of health situation with increases in incidence of malaria and diarrhea diseases and disruption of social services such as education and health. Historically, the country experienced severe floods in the years 1878, 1946, and 1988. The 1988 flood is still vivid in the memories of many people to the effect that frequently flood levels are compared to the levels in that year to give a visual impression of the severity of flooding.
Information on flood damages needs to be extracted from reports, news bulletins, journals, and the like. The Nile Water Department, in collaboration with the Higher Council for Civil Defense, produces annual flood reports in the Arabic language. The report can be obtained from the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources. The report presents flood damages at various localities of the country, in addition to the hydrology of the floods and catchments. Other sources of information include reports (such as the Situation Report by the UN-OCHA) by NGOs and UN agencies, which make a significant contribution to the emergency relief efforts during flood disasters. Some of the sources of such information are: the UN-Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA), the IFRC, Sudanese Red Crescent (SRC), WFP, UNICEF, UNDP, WHO, etc.
The disaster in 1988 appeared to be the first of a series of high floods in recent times, which struck the country in 1994, 1996, 1998 and 1999. Both riverine floods and flash floods in wadis took a heavy toll. Floods resulted in loss of crops, cattle and agricultural machinery, loss of houses and property, displacement of larger communities, deteriorating health conditions and disruption of social life. Pressures on society force economic activities and settlements into flood prone areas thereby increasing the devastating impact of heavy floods.
In August and September 1998 floods and heavy rains occurred in 18 of Sudan's 26 States. The combined results of heavy rains in Ethiopia and southern Sudan resulted in the highest river levels along parts of the Nile and tributaries since records began. Flooding affected about one million people, of whom well over 100,000 were displaced. It resulted in a dramatic increase in the incidence of malaria, diarrhea and other water-related diseases, primarily because of flooded latrines, polluted wells, destroyed water systems and the presence of stagnant water. Production in the irrigated agricultural sector was seriously reduced, up to 20 % of the country's date palm trees were destroyed and there were large losses of livestock from disease and drowning. The preliminary cost of recovery program was estimated to be US$230 million. Much of the emergency response activities focused on provision of food, shelter, and health kits. The states worst affected by the floods in 1998 are the White Nile, Kassala, Gadaref, Sennar, Khartoum and North Kordofan.
The year 2001 affected worst the River Nile, Sennar, and Kassala. In the worst affected provinces of Sennar State, i.e. in Sinja, Sinar, and Aldindir, reportedly 881 families were displaced, 500 houses were destroyed completely and 743 houses were destroyed partially. Worst affected areas were Um Baneen (Sinja), Gazair Agaleen (Al Soki, Aldindir) and Sinja (Sinja). In addition, the deteriorating health situations often posed a big threat to the affected population. In Sudan, in 2006, in Sennar State floods had swept over several regions of the State. The number of houses destroyed by floods could reach over three thousand houses in addition to destruction of agricultural products along the Blue Nile banks. Over the longer term, repeated economic disruptions associated with flooding undermines national poverty alleviation efforts, disrupts sustained economic growth, and will continue to be a source of risk that inhibits investment in economic activity.
Egypt Country Background
The commissioning of the high Aswan dam (HAD) in 1968 has changed the flow regimes of the Nile River in Egypt significantly. Obviously the regulation of the flow and thereby the damping out of the fluctuations in the flow rates between the seasons is the main positive impact of the dam. The seasonal fluctuations in the flow of the Nile mainly result from the seasonality of rainfall over the Ethiopian plateau, where most of the summer flow originates. In addition to the flow regulation effect of the dam, flood peaks have been put under control for the greater period since the dam started operation.
The HAD has been provided with various spillways and openings, which can be operated to release excess water that would threaten the safety of the dam. These spillways have been designed to safely discharge the estimated probable maximum flood amounting 9000 to 11000 m3/s. In addition to the spilling facilities provided at the time the dam was constructed, additional spillway has also been included, with which water can be spilled into the TOSHKA depression. Existing capacity of the TOSHKA spillway is about 2900 m3/s, which is achieved at a maximum head of 4 m; the spillway is more of a natural depression with a small hump at its entrance thus acting like a weir. Thus, the discharge depends on the head above the hump. Plans are underway to expand the spillway. The idea is to create a regulated channel right from the lake into the depression so that the current maximum discharge would be attained with small increase in reservoir levels. The water spilled through the TOSHKA spillway is not recoverable for any beneficial use so far; the water will be released into the Toshka depression in the western desert.
The rate at which excess water can be discharged into the main river downstream has to be controlled to minimize possible damages to the river morphology, reduce scouring around in water structures, such as bridge piers and barrages, and also avoid inundations in small islands in the river. Reports indicate that prior to the construction of the dam in the 1950’s and 1940’s; flood damage mitigation was one of the main concerns as there existed minimal regulation of flow. Measures employed included delineation of the floodplain, by defining what were known as parallel ‘training lines’ 700 m from the bank on each side of the river, with a design discharge of 11000 m3/s. Since the construction of the dam, however, a bank-full discharge of about 3000 m3/s is the expected maximum flow rate in the river downstream of the dam. With the TOSHKA spillway in place, which comes in into use when the reservoir level exceeds 178m, there is less concern on the flood damages downstream of the dam. However, since 1998, things seem to follow a different course; excess water had to be spilled also downstream into the main river in addition to what is spilled through the Toshka spillway every year between 1998 and 2001. The spill downstream in 1998 caused inundation of small islands in the river, caused damages to the riverbanks and some other structures such as bridge piers. Hence, though large-scale inundation might not be expected, the main concern lies on the stability of such structures. The inundation of the small inhabited islands is also a potential problem.
There are seven barrages downstream of the HAD; they are used mainly to regulate flow into the canals. Some barrages are used also to generate hydropower. The barrages include Esna barrages (old Esna at Km 166.65 from Aswan Dam (HAD), and new Km 167.85), Naga Hammadi Barrage at Km 359.45, Assyut Barrage at Km 544.75, Damietta and Rosetta Barrages at Km 952.92, Zifta Barrage on Damietta branch at Km 1046.7, and Idfina Barrage on Rossetta branch at Km 1159.0. Construction is ongoing for a new barrage at Naga Hammadi. It is clear that these structures are very vital hydraulic structures of the water distribution system downstream of the HAD. After the construction of the HAD, water that flows downstream is more sediment free than compared to the conditions before the construction of the dam. This, when coupled with excess discharge, as may occur during flood season, causes more scour around the barrages (upstream and downstream). Observed scour depths range from about 2.5 m, which occurs for some of the barrages at discharges of about 1390 m3/s to more than 10 m for higher discharges. Scouring of the river bed can cause undermining of the barrage foundation and, in some cases, my even adversely affect the stability of the structure.
Egypt Flood Damages
Before the construction of High Aswan Dam (HAD) in 1964 all barrage gates during the flood season were completely opened with the barrage acting as a bridge section with constriction scour only expected. In the rising period of the flood, scour occurred while in the falling period filling of the scoured holes occurred by the flood sediment laden water. Therefore, it is thought that the current observed scour holes are due to conditions after HAD where the water is almost clear of sediment. These conditions are resulting from high velocity jets either from high head difference on the barrage or high unit width discharge due to gate operation schemes.
The Nile Research Institute has compiled damage data downstream of the HAD due to scours around bridge piers, which were caused by the floods. Some studies by the NRI indicate that the reach between the Asuyt and Delta Barrages (known as reach 4) is the most adversely affected by the increased flow in the river.
Annex 2: Major Related Projects Financed by the Bank and/or other Agencies
Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
(FPEW I)
The World Bank has not undertaken any major flood projects within the EN countries. A series of master plans/mapping exercises were undertaken in these countries which include flood aspects as a component. These include:
Ethiopia
• Aerial reconnaissance and mapping of approximate extents of flooding on the Gambella plains of the Baro-Akobo river system following a major flood in 1988 (Selkhozpromexport, 1990);
• Rudimentary flood risk mapping for parts of Ethiopia based on anecdotal advice and limited topographic information (Bekele, 1997);
• Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan (TAMS-ULG, 1997);
• Abbay River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan (BCEOM, 1999);
• Tekeze River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan (NEDECO/DHV, 1998);
• Plans to reduce flooding at Bahir Dar through improved drainage (SZABD/Devecon Oy, 1999 and MCE, c2001).
Sudan
• Delineation of flood extents in Khartoum from satellite imagery of the 1998 and 2003 floods (Remote Sensing Authority, date unknown);
• Photogrammetry, orthophotos and digital elevation model covering the Nile River Valley from upstream of the Merowe Dam site at Abu Hamed to downstream near Dongola (Dams Implementation Unit, date unknown but c2006);
• River channel cross-sections for the Blue Nile from downstream of Roseires and for the White Nile downstream of Jebel Aulia Dam (available through MIWR, c1998);
• Photogrammetric data for Khartoum State (MPPPU, in preparation);
• Aerial photography of parts of Greater Khartoum city (MPPPU, date unknown);
• Collection of anecdotal information about past flood and preparation of flood risk area maps as part of the ProVention program (Sudanese Red Crescent Society, in preparation);
• Hydrologic analysis undertaken as part of feasibility studies for Merowe Dam (Monenco, 1992);
• Investigation of the flood mitigation effects of Merowe Dam (Hydroproject Institute, 2001).
• Development of the Sudan flood warning system (Delft Hydraulics, 1994);
Egypt
• Hydrologic analyses undertaken as part of a study on flood and drought control involving the operation of HAD (Delft Hydraulics, 2002);
• Hydrologic and hydraulic analysis and update of flood ‘management line’ maps downstream of HAD (NRI, in progress and Attia & el Saeed, 2001).
Small bodies of work undertaken by the World Bank and others within the EN and relevant to this project include:
• Background reports on flood management in Sudan and Ethiopia (Bakhiet, 2004; Golla, 2004);
• A detailed background report (with references) on flood management and related issues in Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia (Seid, 2004);
• Baseline social surveys in Sudan targeting selected communities along the Blue and Main Niles (Abdel Ati, 2005) and in Ethiopia concentrating on the area around Lake Tana (Teshome, 2005);
• Consolidation of the above two baseline social surveys and delivery of operational guidelines for social assessment work to be undertaken as part of the FPEW project (Bush, 2005);
• A preliminary rapid assessment of flood damages in Sudan (Cawood, 2005).
Annex 3: Results Framework and Monitoring
Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
(FPEW I)
|PDO |Outcome Indicators |Use of Outcome Information |
| | | |
|Establish a regional coordination |RFCU established and resourced, pilot flood |YR1 |
|mechanism and strengthen the capacities|preparedness |a) Monitor establishment of the RFCU (office, staff, |
|of the EN countries in flood mitigation|emergency response activities trialed and assessed, |systems, etc) and provide guidance as required. |
|and management, promote regional |detailed specification prepared for a regional flood |YR2 |
|cooperation, and enhance the readiness |forecast, warning and communication system. |a) 1st annual flood conference and study visits/workshops |
|of the EN countries to subsequent (i.e.| |should be in advanced planning stage; |
|Phase II) implementation of the FPEW | |b) Draft training program should be available; |
|project. | |c) Monitor progress on pilot activities & outcomes; |
| | |d) Special studies should be in progress; |
| | |e) Confirm linkages to/with other projects are recognized.|
| | |YR3 |
| | |a) Input should have been provided to drafts of the |
| | |detailed specification and preparation of a final version |
| | |well advanced for flood forecasting; |
| | |b) Reports with clear outcomes and recommendations should |
| | |have been sighted for all piloting activities and all |
| | |special studies. |
|Intermediate Results |Results Indicators for Each Component |Use of Monitoring Results |
|Component One: Regional Coordination |
|RFCU established at ENTRO initially in |(a) Office logistics in place: |YR1 |
|Addis Ababa and later moved to |Office space created with sufficient supplies and with |a) Identify, investigate and address reasons for any hold |
|Khartoum to serve as a platform for and|operating hardware/software in place; |ups in establishment of the RFCU and initiation of project|
|to assist strengthening of national |Staff contracts and ToRs prepared and signed; |activities; verify plans for the coming year. |
|flood warning centers through |Administrative systems established; |YR2 |
|facilitation of : |Office files – memos, meeting minutes, emails – show |a) Investigate any hold ups in the planning of the 1st |
|(a) exchange and dissemination of |record of correspondence and information exchange |annual flood conference and study visits/workshops; |
|flood-related information for use at |between 3 EN countries facilitated by the RFCU; |b) Flag and initiate follow up on any issues relating to |
|National level in EN countries; | |hosting, design, establishment and population of the flood|
|(b) experience sharing and capacity |(b) Institutional |information database; |
|building. |arrangements/data-information-experience sharing |c) Check process in place for refinement of operational |
| |process/procedures in place: |data and training needs; |
| |RFCU operational guidelines and protocols established; |d) Verify that the draft training workshop program is |
| |Report of Annual Flood Forum produced; |viable; |
| |Host website for flood information database identified;|e) Review pilot activity and special study plans for |
| |Protocols and metadata for flood information database |focus, linkages, cost, etc; |
| |established; |f) Verify that outcomes from special studies are beginning|
| |Key data loaded to database; |to flow into Phase 2 implementation; |
| |Links established to other relevant websites; |g) Appraise RFCU plans for the coming year. |
| |Operational data/information needs established and |YR3 |
| |documented on file; |a) Investigate any delays in acquiring and loading data to|
| |(c) Capacity building/training mechanism are in place:|the flood information database; |
| |Training needs analysis completed and review process |b) Determine extent to which the flood information |
| |established; |database is meeting needs; |
| |Training modules developed; |c) Evaluate training workshop program against needs and |
| |Training courses undertaken with invoices and course |feedback; |
| |material on file; |d) Review study visits/workshops program against |
| |Study visits/workshops undertaken within and external |objectives and learning outcomes, feedback, cost/value, |
| |to the EN region; |etc; |
| |Special studies identified, scoped, costed, documented,|e) Confirm that complete and valid documentation exists |
| |planned and delivered. |for all pilot activities and special studies; |
| | |f) Appraise RFCU plans for the coming year. |
| | | |
|Intermediate Results |Results Indicators for Each Component |Use of Monitoring Results |
|Component Two: Pilot Flood Preparedness and Emergency Response |
|Reduced vulnerability of flood prone |(a) Flood Risk Mapping initiated: |Year 1 |
|communities. |Pilot mapping areas identified through RFCU[3]; |a) Confirm pilot areas identified4; |
| |Topographic data collected and loaded to GIS; |b) Alleviate any blocks to data collection through the |
| |Initial hydrologic (and hydraulic) analyses completed; |RFCU and/or ENTRO; |
| |Initial digital flood risk maps prepared; |c) Confirm pilot communities identified for flood |
| |Flood risk maps ground truthed; |preparedness/response activities[5]; |
| | |Year 2 |
| |(b) Community Preparedness Plans Developed and |a) Confirm initial hydrologic and other analyses |
| |evaluated: |completed; |
| |Communities targeted for piloting of improved local |b) Facilitate discussion of ground truthing of flood risk |
| |flood response identified[4]; |mapping results with countries as appropriate; |
| |Information needed to support an effective response |c) Confirm that Ethiopian and/or Sudanese agencies are |
| |determined for pilot communities; |effectively engaged in the facilitation process; |
| |Community response plans developed and supporting tools|d) Confirm plans are complete and that all support and/or |
| |developed and/or provided6; |enabling tools[6] have been provided in a manner that |
| |Evaluation program (looking at processes used, |meets individual community needs; |
| |resulting plans and on-ground results and experiences) |e) Confirm development of evaluation program with |
| |developed and supporting resources allocated; |appropriate sign-offs; |
| |Immediately following flood, initiate the evaluation |f) Workshop/share lessons learnt from pilot activities |
| |program; |with the EN countries through the RFCU; |
| |Feed pilot activity experiences into Phase 2 |g) Ensure Phase 2 activities and program benefit from |
| |implementation activities and program. |piloting experiences. |
| | |Year 3 |
| | |a) Confirm progress with and results of flood risk |
| | |mapping; |
| | |b) Workshop to share lessons learnt from pilot activities |
| | |with the EN countries through the RFCU; |
| | |c) Ensure Phase 2 activities and program benefit from |
| | |pilot. |
|Intermediate Results |Results Indicators for Each Component |Use of Monitoring Results |
|Component Three: Flood Forecasting, Warning and Communication System |
|National flood forecast and warning |a) Design of flood forecasting system completed: |YR1 |
|systems strengthened/new set up |Project preparation outputs on national flood forecast,|a) Confirm refinements identified and incorporated into |
|(Ethiopia) and detailed design of the |warning and communication systems refined following |documentation; |
|Regional Flood Forecast, Warning and |further consultations with riparian experts; |b) Verify that national and local flood forecast, warning |
|Communication System completed. |Local community flood forecast, warning and |and community needs have been identified and incorporated |
| |communication system needs assessed in terms of |into documentation. |
| |information, delivery, timing, requirements; |YR2 |
| |Approaches, technologies, equipment, etc appropriate to|a) Review documentation identifying approaches, equipment |
| |service needs identified; |etc for trailing and plans for such trails; |
| |Documentation prepared to support trialing: |b) Verify that orders have been placed and filled and |
| |Various hardware and software purchased to enable pilot|equipment installed as intended; |
| |trials of approaches; |c) Confirm that trials are proceeding as planned. |
| |Equipment installed and operational; |YR3 |
| |Performance assessed and documented along with |a) Review trial approach, equipment, etc performance |
| |recommendations and lessons learnt; |reports; |
| |Functional specifications arising from project |b) Workshop and share lessons learnt with the EN countries|
| |preparation refined to accommodate pilot project |through the RFCU; |
| |recommendations; |c) Confirm field surveys completed as required; |
| |Field surveys to support system upgrade and/or |d) Workshop detailed system design through RFCU and obtain|
| |development completed; |RWG sign-off; |
| |Detailed system design completed; |e) Review and refine tender documents prior to release for|
| |Tender documents prepared and ready for issue. |bidding. |
Arrangements for results monitoring
| | |Data Collection and Reporting |
|Project Outcome Indicators |Baseline |YR1 |YR2 |YR3 |Frequency and |Data Collection |Responsibility for Data |
| | | | | |Reports |Instruments |Collection |
|Intermediate Outcome Indicators | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|(ii) Pilot flood preparedness and|None |(a) community |(a) implementation of |(a) Effectiveness of |ENTRO project |Surveys, ENTRO/ | |
|emergency response activities | |information needs |community development |community plans and |progress reports |Country assessments | |
|trialed and assessed, | |identified |plans facilitated |process evaluated |(bi-annual) | | |
| | | |(b) Digital flood risk | | | | |
| | | |maps prepared | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|(iii) Detailed specification |None |(a) Pilot plans for |(a ) Community development|(a) Flood forecasting|ENTRO project |Surveys, ENTRO/ | |
|prepared for a regional flood | |community development |plans for flood |detailed design for |progress reports |Country assessments | |
|forecast, warning and | |plans for flood |preparedness implemented |the EN countries |(bi-annual) | | |
|communication system. | |forecasting prepared |and evaluated |completed. | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | |Centers in Sudan and | | | | | |
|(iv) National Flood Forecasting | |Egypt strengthening | |All centers fully | | | |
|and Warning Centers | |initiated and a new |Centers in Sudan and Egypt|operational |ENTRO project |Surveys, ENTRO/ | |
|strengthened/initiated | |centre initiated in |strengthening completed | |progress reports |Country assessments | |
| |Centers exist in |Ethiopia |and new centre completed| |(bi-annual) | | |
| |Sudan and Egypt. | | | | | | |
| |None in Ethiopia | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
Annex 4: Detailed Project Description
Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
(FPEW I)
FPEW I comprises of three key components, namely, regional coordination (US$ 1.69 M), pilot flood preparedness and emergency response ($1.26 M), and flood forecasting warning and communication (US$ 1.02 M).
1. Component 1: Regional Coordination (US$ 1.69 M)
The hydrologic setting in the EN is such that most of the flow causing damages in Sudan originates in the Ethiopian highlands in the east. Current flood forecasting systems in operation in Egypt and with limited capabilities in Sudan rely on satellite observation of Cold Cloud Cover (and duration) over the Ethiopian highlands and flow gauging stations within Sudan. Although it is estimated that getting rainfall and flow data from Ethiopia in real-time could increase the lead-time by about 2 – 3 days, there is currently no mechanism for such data sharing. An increase in flood forecast lead times would greatly benefit flood emergency response activities in Sudan, especially for sites relatively far upstream from Khartoum. The experience of Sudan in flood mitigation and management could be beneficially shared with Ethiopia, where flood disaster management is not well developed.
Several regulation dams are contemplated in Ethiopia with potential benefits for flood mitigation downstream. Moreover, the EN countries of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan are currently working on a number of projects targeting watershed management, irrigation and drainage development, regional power trade, as well as a Joint Program for multipurpose development (JMP) of the EN waters. It is expected that the JMP will result in projects that will have transboundary impact in all three EN countries. The planning and design of such projects will require the assessment of downstream impacts including with respect to flood mitigation, reduced flood risk and damage, mutual benefits, etc. While the countries have agreed in principle to share data in real time to facilitate the analysis of impacts and to enable projects to operate effectively, the protocols to be employed have not yet been determined.
The immediate objective of this key component is to put in place a mechanism for enhancing regional cooperation in the areas of flood management and flood forecasting, and for sharing regional experiences and information. It is clear that regional cooperation will evolve over time and this first step will lay the foundation for future transboundary management of flood disasters in the EN. It is envisaged that a regional unit will be established to manage the day-to-day implementation of the project components, in addition to providing a platform to enhance regional cooperation in flood management. The outputs and activities under this component are described briefly below.
Output 1 - EN Regional Flood Coordination Unit Established
The main aim of this unit is to play a key role in coordinating project implementation and management. It will manage and implement day to day current and future implementation phases of FPEW and liaise between donors, consultants and EN countries. It will also play an important role in coordinating the common activities between FPEW and other IDEN projects. It will also help in coordinating data collection and analysis from the EN countries, together with other IDEN projects. The unit will also serve the EN countries in the exchange and dissemination of vital flood-related information for use at national level; and will function as a platform for experience sharing and capacity building.
The RFCU unit will enhance flood-related information and data exchange among the EN countries and strengthen transboundary flood management. It is planned that initially the RFCU will be established and will be equipped with basic facilities (basic IT equipment, office facilities, dedicated line for internet connection, etc). The unit will be headed by the Regional Flood Coordinator[7] (also driving the FPEW project) supported by two other full time staff, all competitively hired from the region, (a Regional Flood Coordinator, a Hydrometeorologist and an IT/GIS person). Functions such as finance, procurement, and administration; formal external communication; protocols; and donor liaison; will be undertaken within the existing ENTRO organization according to existing modes of operation. ENTRO’s administrative support cost amounting to US$330,000 includes costs related to FRCU office support (including the additional funding to shift the office to Khartoum) such as electricity, telephones, internet, office space, fax, photocopying, as well as procurement, financial and administrative support. This anticipated requirement for the project period is approximately 8% of the project cost and appears reasonable. ENTRO will charge these on a reimbursable basis from the project.
It is envisaged that the unit will serve as a data repository, provide flood-risk maps (where and when available), satellite remote sensing and GIS-based information on flood extents (where and when available), conduct flood behavior analyses, facilitate exchange of experiences, information among different national flood forecasting centers, provide forums for riparian and international experts to exchange experiences, provide useful information in the planning of regional projects with potential impacts on flood mitigation such as the ENPM and the Nile DSS, and coordinate preparation/implementation of future phases of FPEW projects etc.
Activities:
Activity 1.1: Establish RFCU protocols and operational guidelines – establish the rules for how the RFCU will operate; consult with the EN countries to ensure support for the RFCU remains strong; establish operating protocols with ENTRO in line and in consultation with the development under the Water Resources Planning and Management Project under the SVP; and secure policy-related guidance and approvals from ENCOM/ENSAPT as required.
Activity 1.2: Establish, staff , equip and operate the RFCU – refurbish office accommodation as required, recruit staff, procure and install equipment (computers, communication, dedicated/broadband internet line, transport, etc), maintain and operate the RFCU over the life of the project, and finalize internal organizational issues with ENTRO, etc.
Output 2 – Annual Flood Forums Conducted
EN Annual Flood Forums will be conducted to facilitate sharing of experiences among practitioners, planners, and scientists within the region and (where possible) from other river basins world-wide. It is envisaged that topics addressed will include all aspects of flood management, including current and emerging practices, the use and effectiveness of recent ICT technologies in flood forecasting and risk assessment, flood damage assessment and damage prediction, assessment of socio-economic impacts of floods, etc.
Activities:
Activity 2.1: Build professional network and share knowledge through annual forums - organize and conduct annual flood forums and in so doing assist in the building and maintenance of a professional network of flood management practitioners, and scientists in the EN, line agencies, international organizations, etc.
Activity 2.2: Facilitate participation of Eastern Nile flood forecasting specialists in international flood forums – support and facilitate the participation and publication of joint research of Eastern Nile flood forecasting specialists in international flood forecasting conferences, for the purpose of upgrading their knowledge and experience.
Output 3 – Database of Flood Information Established and Maintained
A web-based database of flood related data and information will be developed, established, and maintained within the RFCU. All riparians will have access to the database which is expected to be used in the planning and implementation of flood management measures (e.g. floodplain land use management, assessment and reduction of the vulnerability of communities residing in the floodplain, planning of flood damage mitigation measures, etc).
Activities:
Activity 3.1: Design and establish a web-based database – will involve the development of protocols and metadata for the database (and perhaps also for the website hosting the database), for data upload and its use as well as for riparian access, the upload of flood-related data (e.g. meteorology, hydrology, topography, channel/floodplain and other characteristics, land use, historical floods, existing and planned/potential regulations and other interventions, etc), creation of links to other good practice and relevant websites, as well as to other ENSAP projects such as the Eastern Nile Planning Model, etc.
Activity 3.2: Collect, collate, process quality assured data and load data in the database – the collection and collation of data to be loaded to the database and its upload in line with agreed protocols, selected analyses aimed at identifying data gaps, quality etc.
Output 4 –Information and Experience Exchange
Work to date has indicated that while resource constraints (e.g. data collection and information dissemination systems) are an impediment to the implementation of flood mitigation and management practices, difficulties with access to and incomplete local knowledge of such measures and how they could be implemented within the EN are further impediments. Capacity, focused on all elements of integrated floodplain management, can however be built relatively quickly through the pooling and sharing of knowledge within and external to the EN. Study visits/workshops, for both technical specialists and high level managers, to centers successfully tackling issues faced within the EN countries will assist in building regional capacity. Contact and involvement with the EU-funded network and partnerships on ‘Flood Awareness and Prevention Policy in border areas’ (FLAPP) formed in European river systems are also envisaged. Appropriate linkages to Nile DSS and ENPM will be developed to ensure synergy in these development and compatibility of the data base developed under each project.
Activities:
Activity 4.1: Identify key knowledge gaps – an analysis of data required within the database to support flood forecast and warning operations as well as wider floodplain management needs together with an assessment of training/experience sharing needs and opportunities. Will include identification of target groups.
Activity 4.2: Develop training modules and deliver workshops – follows from activity 4.1 with training to also cover the web-based database as well as flood management and mitigation.
Activity 4.3: Conduct selected study visits – aimed at gaining broader international and regional experience in flood management and mitigation measures and involving both technical and senior managers within the EN countries (e.g. flood forecast centers in Mekong or Bangladesh, Egypt, Sudan, the Drought Monitoring Center in Nairobi, Kenya, Mur River in Graz, Austria and site visits to places of relevance to the FPEW project within the EN countries (e.g. trial equipment sites, national forecast centers, etc)).
Output 5 – Regional Analysis and Special Studies Conducted
FPEW 1 implementation of the FPEW project will run in parallel with project preparation for the first half year of the FPEW-II project. During this period, it is expected that the preparation study will highlight areas that require further investigation. It is proposed that special studies that could be expected to have a direct and positive impact on subsequent implementation activities (i.e. FPEW II implementation) will be conducted the social and environmental framework of which will be taken care of in FPEW II. These may include such regional studies as: development of a robust regionally-based methodology for flood damage assessment; assessment of the effectiveness of existing and planned regulation works on flood mitigation and their implications for reservoir operation; determining the incidence and characteristics of flash floods; development of a flood risk reduction strategy for flood-prone areas along the Baro-Akob-Sobat rivers; facilitated development of State and local flood response plans, etc.
Activities:
Activity 5.1: Identify the need for special studies – project preparation and national consultations will assist in the identification of areas that require further investigation.
Activity 5.2: Conduct special studies as required.
Component 1: Time frame and Budget:
Time frame: 3 years (2007 – 2009)
Budget and cost sharing:
Component Cost: US $ 1.69 M
National (in-kind) contribution: US $ 0.10 M
Other (ENTRO) US $ 0.20 M
Financing needed: US $ 1.39 M
2. Component 2: Pilot Flood Preparedness and Emergency Response (US$1.26 M)
Identifying and mapping at-risk communities, including the extent of flooding and the location of high risk areas, is a basic input to flood response planning as well as to analyses aimed at identifying appropriate flood mitigation measures. It is also a major input to determining vulnerability - the ability of the community to anticipate, cope with, and recover from floods (i.e. their susceptibility and resilience).
Increased flood preparedness and improved response (i.e. reduced vulnerability) are key drivers of flood damage reduction. While flood proofing assets likely to be affected by floods can be effective in reducing vulnerability (and thus damage), a prior knowledge of the likely extent and depth of expected flooding as well as knowledge of the types of assets and activities located within the floodplain are essential. Without such information and the plans to guide response in the event of a flood, the full benefits of river height forecasts cannot be realized. Flood emergency response in the EN is currently, by and large, reactive and ad hoc.
The immediate focus of this component is therefore on reducing the vulnerability of flood prone communities.
Output 1 - Flood risk mapping commenced
Flood risk maps will be produced together with other related mapping products to support flood management in the EN. Mapping activity will initially be restricted to selected (pilot) areas such as those around Lake Tana and Gambella (around 14 sq km) in Ethiopia, and around Tuti island, Dongola, and Khartoum (around 58 sq km) in Sudan. The final identification will be done through country consultations. The maps will support a range of activities including: flood-risk assessment of communities; land-use planning of floodplains; flood emergency (contingency) planning; flood-damage assessment; and assessment of the impact of future/planned interventions. It is envisaged that two types of maps will be prepared: a (GIS-based) base map showing all flood prone areas and communities with a linked data base containing the major features, and a detailed flood-risk map. These maps will be prepared using topographic survey and existing digital terrain data coupled with the results of hydrologic and hydraulic analyses, and compiled into a suitable digital format.
The base map will be prepared using existing and freely available satellite imagery together with topographic data (such as the SRTM 90-m DEM, etc ) and will cover the Lake Tana area and flood-prone areas in Gambella (both in Ethiopia), and flood-prone areas along the Blue Nile – Main Nile rivers in Sudan. The detailed maps will be produced for selected flood prone areas and will be based on a detailed topographic survey using current technologies (such as LIDAR). The aim will be to produce topographic contour maps with contour elevations of about 0.20 – 0.25 m.
Activities:
Activity 1.1: Prepare digital flood risk maps – will involve the preparation of a base/detailed digital terrain model and the overlay of the results of hydraulic analyses within selected areas.
Output 2 – Community flood preparedness and response plans
An integrated approach, involving consideration of non-structural measures in terms of capacity building at community level, is required in order to achieve a sustainable reduction in flood risk and effective long term flood management. Successful interventions (i.e. those that result in a long term and sustainable reduction in flood risk and improved coping mechanisms) will most likely involve National, State and Local governments as well as the at-risk communities. Implementation of key elements at pilot level will enable various strategies and measures for enhancing community capacity to better manage flood disasters to be explored. Results will provide valuable ground-truthing and learning opportunities for implementation on a larger scale as part of FPEW II implementation. Pilot activities could include: facilitating and assisting selected communities develop local and higher level flood management and response plans; piloting warning dissemination methodologies within selected communities with regard for timeliness and delivery to those who need to know; improving community understanding and interpretation of warning information etc. Further possible pilot implementation activities will be added as more information is generated through on-going project preparation. However, during this phase no structural measures for flood mitigation are envisaged.
Activities:
Activity 2.1: Determine information needed by the community for effective response – aimed at ensuring that flood forecast and warning system development is bottom up as well as top down driven and that it delivers what is needed to enable an effective response ahead of expected flooding. This will involve eh following steps:
• identify the pilot communities (a maximum of 4 per country, Ethiopia and Sudan), in due consultation with DPPC, CDO;
• organize the community through the help of local NGO’s, DPPC, CDO etc;
• identify issues/problems related to floods through a participatory process with the communities.
Activity 2.2: Facilitate development of community response plans – will involve the provision of technical and other assistance to streamline local development of plans.
• develop mitigation plans specific to the communities (these planes could include activities such as establishment of level indicators, areas of temporary shelters, storage areas, communication channels, evacuation planes etc.) by the national focal point institutions with due participations from staff of DPPC, CDO, and NGOs;
• develop understandable and user friendly training materials and tools including its procurement;
• impart training to the community and implement the plans.
Activity 2.3: Evaluate effectiveness of plans and process – this will involve a process of participatory evaluation and address the effectiveness of the activities in terms of flood damages avoided (in comparison with previous years and as against non-targeted communities) and community well-being. This could be carried out by designing an appropriate questionnaire and filling it up through participatory process among the targeted communities and holding a focused discussion with selected members of the targeted communities. In case there is an existing plan, the project would try to come up with ways of improving and updating them.
Component 2: Time frame and Budget:
Time frame: 3 years (2007 – 2009)
Budget and cost sharing:
Component Cost: US $ 1.26 mill
National (in-kind) contribution: US $ 0.20 mill
Financing needed: US $ 1.06 mill
3. Component 3: Flood Forecasting Warning and Communication System (US$ 1.02 M)
This component aims at improve flood forecasting institutions and develop a detailed design for the EN flood forecasting, warning and communication system. The communication element of a flood forecast and warning system is essential to its operation and the reduction of flood damages. Data has to be acquired and transmitted to the forecast center (and in some cases to the at-risk communities as well) and the resulting forecast transmitted to the local area for interpretation, value addition, and disseminated to those who need to take action. The effectiveness of the system depends not only on the accuracy of the raw data and forecast but also on the lead time available to take action before the flood begins to affect the area.
In Egypt, the Nile Forecasting Centre was set up in the Planning Sector of MWRI in 1990 with assistance from NOAA (US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Agency), and is well-equipped and skilled. It has developed models for short and medium term forecasting of inflows to HAD, and long-term simulation models for investigations of reservoir operations. It has facilities to receive satellite data, including half-hourly CCD information and imagery from METEOSAT. It also receives meteorological observations and weather forecasts from the ECMWF, which provides, inter alia, recent rainfall observations from five or six synoptic stations in the Ethiopian highlands. The Centre is, therefore, able to make near real-time estimates of rainfall in the upper Blue Nile basin from CCD data using established techniques that have been calibrated to the ground observations available. Data from selected river gauging stations upstream of HAD (in Sudan and Uganda) are also transmitted to the Forecasting Centre. A variety of techniques are also used to make seasonal stream flow estimates of inflows to Lake Nasser, and these are refined every 10 days as data from observation stations become available. Flood mapping are carried out manually in Egypt up to now. Digitizing existing flood maps and automating the flood mapping in the future is mandatory.
In Sudan there is a systematic arrangement for flood forecasting, warning and communication. The flood forecasting system uses the Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) developed with World Bank assistance (Dutch consultants) after the devastating floods of 1988 and the Galway Flood Forecasting System (GFFS). This system is currently not operational, due to lack to trained staff and availability of funds to further sustainability and upgrading of the system. There is no capability to estimate likely inundation extents. Forecasts are disseminated through official media (TV, radio, newspapers) but are generally not received by many of the (rural) flood prone communities.
In Ethiopia there is no systematic real-time flood forecasting system although some forecasting is done in the Awash basin using statistical techniques. Seasonal and short-term forecasts of rainfall by the National Meteorological Services Agency are frequently used to issue warnings regarding the likelihood of flooding. However, these warnings are often too general to be used to plan emergency response activities. The warning messages are issued through the mass media. Flood forecasts for the Lake Tana area would need to be based on expected rainfall as lead times are extremely short and river rises rapidly.
Regionally available forecasts of flood peaks and volumes for the EN would help reduce vulnerability and flood plain management response in Sudan as well as improve operation of the HAD. This would reduce the risk of releasing excess water downstream while assisting in keeping flows below critical levels.
Output 1 – Strengthen national flood forecast and warning systems and initiate new one in Ethiopia.
The strengthening of national flood forecasting and warning capabilities and systems is one of the priorities of the FPEW I project. Support will be provided across the EN in the form of enhanced data acquisition, capacity building and communication equipment. In addition, in the case of Ethiopia, support will be needed to initiate the formation of a unit (possibly) at the Ministry of Water Resources dedicated to generating and disseminating flood forecast and warning information. An important element of project implementation will be the determination of basic data needed to support flood forecast and warning activities at national and regional level as well as at the local community level. This will necessitate the piloting of communication equipment for disseminating warning information to selected flood-prone communities.
Activities:
Activity 1.1: Prepare/enhance flood forecast, warning and communication system requirements – will involve refinement of project preparation outputs following further consultation with riparian experts as well as assessment of local community needs in terms of what information is required, with what lead time, how will they receive it, etc (i.e. a consideration of top down and bottom up needs).
Activity 1.2: Identify appropriate approaches, technologies and equipment – likely to include a mix of technologies from manually read staff gauges upwards aimed at meeting identified needs.
Activity 1.3: Procure for pilot communities (same communities as indicated under component 2 activity 1.2) – aimed at experimenting approaches so that final performance best matches needs. This activity could be shifted to FPEW II depending on the workload on the side of ENTRO.
Activity 1.4: Enhancing current institutions and initiate a new one in Ethiopia - one major activity will be strengthening national forecasting center and initiate a new one in Ethiopia. The main output of this component will be to sustain the institutional capacities among the three countries and upgrade existing centers. In a next phase (FPEW II), one of these national centers can be upgraded to be the regional forecasting center for the EN region. If the EN countries agree at the end of FPEW I about important need for implementing a Regional Flood Forecasting Center (RFFC), in this case the RFFC will be operated by specialists from the three national center and will require special institutional arrangements that can be made clear at the end of FPEW I and can be implemented as part of FPEW II.
Output 2 - Detailed design of regional flood forecast, warning and communication system
Flood forecasting, warning and communication is one of the four components the FPEW project. During FPEW I, analysis will be made on current systems, decide about new modules that can upgrade on the current system to serve as region system or deliver a conceptual design that can serve the EN. It is proposed that as part of the FPEW I implementation, the conceptual design of the EN Flood Forecasting, Warning and Communication System will be developed into a detailed design. This will include software and hardware aspects for real time data acquisition and transmission, the types of forecast information to be generated and the communication systems including the format and type of information to be delivered to end users.
Activities:
Activity 2.1: Prepare/enhance functional specifications from project preparation – will aim to look at existing specifications and address specific additional or new requirements in terms of data and information needs in order to support and enhance local response activities.
Activity 2.2: Undertake necessary field work – will involve field surveys to review existing monitoring systems, the location of additional data collection and transmission systems, etc.
Activity 2.3: Prepare detailed design and tender documents – this activity will deal with undertaking detailed design either for upgrading one of the existing systems to serve regional purposes or set a detailed design for a new one if current systems cannot serve regional requirements. These detailed designs will be based on the conceptual framework to be proposed by the preparation consultants of FPEW II.
Component 3: Time frame and Budget:
Time frame: 2 years (2008– 2009)
Budget and cost sharing:
Component Cost: US $ 1.02 M
National (in-kind) contribution: US $ 0.10 M
Funding required: US $ 0.92 M
Projected Work Plan (Timeline)
| Quarters (1-12) |1 |2 |3 |
|Output/Activity[pic] | | | |
|Regional Coordination |0.30 |1.39 |1.69 |
|Pilot Flood Preparedness and Emergency Response |0.20 |1.06 |1.26 |
|Flood Forecasting Warning & Communication Sys. |0.10 |0.92 |1.02 |
| | | | |
|Total Baseline Cost |0.60 |3.37 |3.97 |
|Physical and Price Contingencies |0.00 |0.11 |0.11 |
|Total Project Costs |0.60 |3.48 |4.08 |
|Total Financing Required | |3.48 | |
Justification for Contingencies:
In the project costs, unallocated costs for physical and price contingencies account for 2.7 % of the base costs which is somewhat of a lower order as compared to 6.7 to 9.6% adopted for similar projects funded in Ethiopia with longer duration of five years as in the case of Pastoral Community Development Project and Rural Capacity Building Project. However this is considered adequate due to (a) the project has a short implementation period of three years; and (b) the project will have an overlap with the FPEW-II project for 2 years and hence reallocation could be considered later while detailing the linkages between FPEW I and II.
Detailed Project Cost by Category
|Categories |Total |
| |US $million |
|(i) Goods and Equipments |0.67 |
|(ii) Consultancy |1.92 |
|(iii) Workshop/Training |0.45 |
|(iv) Operation and maintenance cost | |
|(a) external funding (0.33 million) | |
|(b) Country/ENTRO contribution ((0.60 million) | |
|( c) Operation and maintenance cost (Total) |0.93 |
|(v) Unallocated |0.11 |
|Total Project Costs1 |4.08 |
|Total Financing Required |3.48 |
Some of the highlights of the cost elements are:
• Consultancies constitute 47% of the total cost followed by operating cost (24%); equipment (16%); and workshop/training (11%). This is generally in conformity with what could generally be expected in an institutional development/knowledge management kind of project.
• ENTRO’s administrative support cost (see the table below for details) amounting to $ 330,000 office operation and maintenance costs (including the additional costs to shift the RFCU office to Khartoum) such as electricity, telephone costs, internet, advertising expenses, bank charges, communication material, printing and dissemination, office space rental, office maintenance and refurbishment, fax, and photocopying; travel and additional staff costs for procurement, financial management and administrative support provided exclusively for the implementation of the Project. This anticipated requirement for the project period is approximately 8% of the project cost and appears reasonable. ENTRO will charge these amounts from the project on reimbursable basis as it will have a budget line for FPEW-I related expenditure.
ENTRO Administrative Support Cost
|Item |Unit |Rate ($) |Number |Cost ($) |
|RFCU secretary and staff |1 |5,000 |2.5 |12,500 |
|RFCU Office fit-out (carpet, |LS |15,000 |1 |15,000 |
|furniture etc. | | | | |
|RFCU Office fit-out |LS |10,000 |1 |10,000 |
|(painting, cabling etc) | | | | |
|RFCU office running cost |LS per year |8,000 |2.5 |20,000 |
|(power, internet, water, | | | | |
|phone, hospitality etc) | | | | |
|RFCU Office and equipment |LS per year |5,000 |2.5 |12,500 |
|consumables (paper, printer, | | | | |
|cartridges, stationery etc) | | | | |
|Vehicle Running Cost |LS per year |20,000 |2.5 |50,000 |
|Project support (financial |LS |210,000 |1.0 |210,000 (see Annex 1 : need|
|management, procurement, | | | |for $87600 for close to 2.5 |
|administrative, auditing etc)| | | |years: rounded off) |
|Total | | | |330,000 |
• There is a provision of 100 person months of interns (students working in the field of flood management) @ $100 per month to provide support to the National Focal Point Institutions (NFPIs) in each of the country during project implementation. It is expected that this would improve the capacity of the countries and provide them with trained junior level staff to be absorbed later to ensure sustainability of project benefits.
Annex 6: Implementation Arrangements
Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning - Phase 1
(FPEW I)
ENTRO is established in Addis Ababa under a Headquarters Agreement with the Government of Ethiopia, which awards to ENTRO the legal personality, privileges and immunities of a regional organization. The ENCOM approved legal status of ENTRO (December 2002) and invested ENTRO with the legal personality to perform the functions entrusted to it, including the power to receive and administer grant funding, in the territories of all three EN countries. ENTRO has been designed as an NBI institution by Nile-COM (Extraordinary Nile-COM Meeting, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, September 12, 2003).
ENTRO will sign a Grant Agreement with the World Bank and thus be responsible together with all the EN Countries for the coordination of all activities, procurement of equipment and consultants, and management of funds. ENTRO will have final responsibility for the quality of outputs and will work in close cooperation with both the Bank’s Nile Team in supervising the activities and with the already identified National Flood Coordinators in the MoIWR (Sudan), MoWR (Ethiopia) and MoIWR (Egypt).
The Regional Flood Coordination Unit (refer section II C 1) will be established and equipped with basic facilities (basic IT equipment, office facilities, dedicated line for internet connection, etc). The unit will be headed by the Regional Flood Coordinator (also driving the FPEW project) with support provided by two full time staff (long term consultants - a Hydrometeorologist and an IT/GIS person), who will be competitively hired from the region. The day to day management of the project will however be coordinated by the Regional Flood Coordinator. Functions such as finance, procurement, and administration; formal external communication; protocols; and donor liaison; will be undertaken within the existing ENTRO organization according to existing modes of operation.
Activities at national level would be supported by the National Focal Point Institutions (NFPIs) in the respective Ministries of Water Affairs and will be headed by the National Flood Coordinator (which is part of the overall ENSAP arrangement). The NFPIs will suitably interact with other national level institutions (through committees/working groups) to implement the project at country levels. The data sharing/logistics commitment from each country would be ensured through a formal commitment letter by each country. Countries will provide counterpart staff to support project activities within their territories, as agreed in a letter of commitment from each country. The detailed implementation arrangements will be as below:
• Initial implementation through RFCU will be conducted at ENTRO through its Ethiopia office at Addis Ababa until around the completion of the first year of the project. ENTRO will recruit a Regional Flood Coordinator (FCU); Hydrometeorologist; and IT/GIS specialist for managing RFCU. RFCU’s mandate will mainly be overall project implementation and management.
• RFCU will be later be transitioned to Khartoum (legal, institutional, technical and financial arrangement will be in place within a year of the project). ENTRO will make sure that all arrangements are in place before moving.
• Regional Flood Coordinator will be responsible for managing day to day implementation matters of the project, both at regional and national levels.
• Regional Flood Coordinator will liaison with NFPI represented by national coordinators, who will manage and supervise the implementation mechanisms within their respected countries.
RFCU will report to ENTRO and receive financing and technical support from ENTRO main office. Regional Flood Coordinator will report to the senior coordinator (the regional flood coordinator/senior coordinator) at ENTRO main office.
• NFPI (located in ministries of water affairs in each country) will be responsible for implementing the project’s activities at national level; NFC (currently the manager of national flood forecasting center in each country) will be representing the NFPI in the implementation process. NFPI will work closely with RFCU of the project.
• NFPI will report to ENSAPT team leader in each country about issues, progress, and needed support. ENSAPT team leader will reflect these aspects in ENSAPT regional meetings.
• ENTRO will keep track of all records of the project.
• M&E specialist will be hired at ENTRO level and he will consider all M&E activities for all ENSAP projects.
• Auditing of the project will be part of annual ENTRO Auditing activities.
• ENTRO will report to ENSAPT leaders about the progress, issues and needed actions during project implementation.
• ENSAPT will report to ENCOM and receive guidance as well.
In addition, a technical advisory group of regional/international advisors/peer reviewers will be formed at ENTRO level to provide technical guidance during project implementation. This group will provide the advice to all ENSAP project. This cost will be reflected in overall ENTRO budget and not on this project.
The implementation setup is illustrated below.
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Note: RFC: Regional Flood Coordinator; NFC: National Flood Coordinator; NI: National Institutions
Annex 7: Financial Management and Disbursement Arrangements
Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
(FPEW I)
Financial Management
Introduction
The financial management assessment was carried out in accordance with the Financial Management Practices Manual issued by the Financial Management Board on 3 November 2005. The objective of the assessment was to determine whether the implementing entities have acceptable financial management arrangements, which will ensure: (1) the funds are used only for the intended purposes in an efficient and economical way, (2) the preparation of accurate, reliable and timely periodic financial reports, (3) safeguard the entities’ assets; and the existing capacity of ENTRO is capable of handling the Trust Fund financial transactions. The FM assessment was done in May and December 2006.
Summary of Project Description
The development objective of the overall FPEW project (FPEW I and II) is to reduce human suffering and damages, as well as to capture the benefits of excess flood waters resulting from flooding in the Eastern Nile. FPEW I will contribute directly to the development objective of the FPEW. The specific objective of FPEW I is to establish a regional institutional basis and to strengthen the existing capacities of the EN countries in flood forecasting, mitigation and management, promoting regional cooperation as well as to enhance the readiness of the EN countries to subsequent implementation of the FPEW project (i.e. FPEW II). It will prepare the foundation for FPEW II implementation in terms of institutional settings and data/information collections/sharing at community and national levels, together with enhancing regional coordination and cooperation.
Risk Assessment and Mitigation
|Risk |Risk Rating |Risk Mitigating Measures incorporated into|Conditions of |Remarks |
| | |the Project Design |Negotiations, Board or| |
| | | |Effectiveness (Yes or | |
| | | |No) | |
|Inherent Risk | | | | |
|Entity Level |M | The Grant includes a component to further|N |The grant is implemented |
| | |build the capacity of ENTRO and the | |by the three countries |
| | |National Flood Focal Points in each of the| |(Ethiopia, Sudan and |
| | |three countries | |Egypt) and ENTRTO |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
|Control Risk | | | | |
|Budgeting |L | |N |ENTRO prepared a five-year|
| | | | |strategic plan, which is |
| | | | |the basis for annual |
| | | | |budget |
|Accounting |L | |N |One additional finance |
| | | | |officer to be hired to |
| | | | |strengthen the finance |
| | | | |section of ENTRO |
|Internal Control |M |ENTRO will establish an Internal Audit | |Currently, there is no |
| | |Unit in calendar year 2007 | |internal audit section in |
| | | | |ENTRO |
|Funds Flow |L | | | |
|Financial Reporting |L | | | |
|Auditing |L | | | |
In view of the issues mentioned above, the overall financial management risk rating for ENTRO is medium.
Strengths and Weaknesses
ENTRO is now managed by a fairly strong management team. The Finance and Administration Department (FAD) has well experienced and qualified staff. The Finance Unit has four staff, including the Head of FAD. ENTRO will hire one additional finance officer with basic procurement knowledge to further strengthen its capacity in the financial area. ENTRO is in the process of updating its accounting system by installing new accounting software-Microsoft Solomon and also revising its financial management manual. ENTRO has already installed the new accounting software and is in the process of testing the new system by running it in parallel with the old system. The new accounting system will be fully operational in calendar 2007. The complete revision of the FM manual is included in the work program of calendar year 2007.
As the activities of ENTRO increase, there is a need to strengthen its internal control system. One of the means to strengthen the internal control system is to establish a strong Internal Audit Unit. ENTRO is planning to establish an Internal Audit Unit in calendar year 2007. The establishment of the Unit will improve the internal control system of ENTRO.
Implementation Entities
FPEW I will be executed by ENTRO. The Finance and Administration Department of ENTRO will be responsible for the overall financial management of the Grant. ENTRO will have final responsibility for the quality of outputs and will work in close cooperation with both the Bank’s Nile Team in supervising the activities and with the already identified National Flood Coordinators in the MoIWR (Sudan), MoWR (Ethiopia) and MoIWR (Egypt).
Staffing
ENTRO has now four finance staff responsible to undertake the financial transactions of the program as a whole. The Head of the Finance and Administration is responsible for the overall financial management of ENTRO. The Head of the Finance Unit, supported by an accountant and cashier/secretary handles the day-to-day financial activities of ENTRO. One additional finance officer will be hired to strengthen the Finance Unit of ENTRO. All of the finance staff have a long period of relevant experience and adequate qualifications.
Budgeting
Each year, ENTRO prepares its annual budget and the budget is approved by the Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Plan Team (ENSAP Team) and the Eastern Nile Council of Ministers (ENCOM). ENTRO is moving towards basing its annual budget on the five-year strategic plan (2006-2010). The sources of finance and expenditure details will be shown in the annual budget.
Accounting
ENTRO uses double entry accounting system based on cash basis of accounting. All revenue and expenditures are accounted for on cash basis of accounting. Cost of fixed assets and stock are expensed at the time of purchase, but memorandum records are maintained to control the assets and stock. ENTRO has developed a Financial Manual, which is concise and clear, used as a reference guide for the staff working in the Finance Unit. So as to record the financial transaction of the Gant, the Finance Unit of ENTRO will assign a code for the grant.
ENTRO has recently installed new accounting software, Microsoft Solomon, as part of upgrading its accounting system. The new accounting system is being tested and will be fully operational at the beginning next year (2007). The old accounting software, Peachtree, is being used in parallel with the new accounting software until ENTRO is fully satisfied with the new accounting software to record and process financial transactions. Staff of ENTRO have received the required training on both of the accounting softwares.
According to the work program of ENTRO, the financial manual will be revised in calendar year 2007 to reflect changes in recent years.
Internal Control
Internal control comprises the entire system of control, financial or otherwise, established by management in order to (a) carry out the project activities in an orderly and efficient manner, (b) ensure adherence to policies and procedures; and (c) safeguard and the assets of the project and secure as far as possible the completeness and accuracy of the financial and other records.
The project is expected to design and install internal control systems which will help the management of the project in achieving the project objectives in an orderly and efficient manner. Since the project will not have an internal audit section, the control systems to be designed should compensate for the non-existence of the internal audit. Thus, the main focus of the internal control is placed on the following:
• Segregation of duties;
• Physical control of assets;
• Authorization and approval;
• Clear channels of command;
• Arithmetic and accounting accuracy;
• Integrity and performance of staff at all levels;
• Supervision.
In order to further strengthen its internal control system, ENTRO will establish an Internal Audit Unit in calendar year 2007.
Fund Flows and Disbursement Arrangements
Funds flow
ENTRO will open a Designated Account (DA) in US dollars at a commercial Bank on terms and conditions that are satisfactory to the Bank for the receipt of grant proceeds and will communicate banking details to the World Bank. The DA will be managed by ENTRO. The authorized amount of the DA will be US$250,000
From the DA, ENTRO will advance a reasonable amount (estimated to be USD 5,000 during appraisal) to each of the three countries’ flood coordinators as a revolving fund to cover operating costs. The revolving fund will be replenished on submission of utilization report and original supporting documents. ENTRO will issue a one page guideline, acceptable to the Bank, on how to manage the revolving fund. Any other payment, which could not be made from the revolving fund, will be paid from the DA. ENTRO will maintain original supporting documents at its Head Quarters.
Disbursement Methods
The project will start with the disbursement methods based on designated Account Advance, Direct Payment and Special Commitment. At the beginning of the project, the designated account will be replenished on the basis of statements of expenditures. It is possible to use the interim un-audited financial reports for the replenishment of the DA after the Bank is satisfied with the adequacy of the financial arrangements.
Minimum Value of Applications
The minimum value for Direct Payment and Special Commitment will be USD 50,000.
Reporting on Use of Grant Proceeds
The supporting documentation for reporting eligible expenditures paid from the designated account should be a summary report of the Statements of Expenditure (SOEs) and records evidencing eligible expenditures for payments against contracts valued above USD 100,000 for goods, USD 100,000 for consulting firms, and USD 50,000 for individual consultants.
The supporting documentation for direct payment should be records evidencing eligible expenditures (copies of receipt, supplier’s invoices, etc).
The project will submit a bank statement and a reconciliation of the designated account together with the withdrawal application at least on quarterly basis.
All supporting documentation for SOEs will be retained at ENTRO and must be made available for review by periodic World Bank review missions and external auditors.
The format of the interim un-audited financial report is attached.
Counterpart Funding
ENTRO and the three beneficiary countries will provide contribution in-kind amounting to USD 600,000. In-kind contribution will include office space, staff time, etc.
Table C: Allocation of Credit proceeds
|Category |Amount ($ million) |Financing Percentages |
|Equipment |0.67 |100 |
|Consultancy |1.92 |100 |
|Workshop and Training |0.45 |100 |
|Operation and maintenance cost |0.33 |100 |
|Unallocated |0.11 |100 |
|Total |3.48 |100 |
The project will be implemented over a period of three (3) years, which includes the estimated time for establishment of accommodation for the RFCU, mobilization of consultants and for the sourcing and delivery of equipment. The yearly disbursement is expected to be as below:
|Calendar Year |Disbursement ($ million) |Fiscal Year |Disbursement ($ million) |
|2007 |0.30 |2007 |0.10 |
|2008 |1.30 |2008 |0.85 |
|2009 |1.40 |2009 |1.35 |
|2010 |0.48 |2010 |1.18 |
Reporting and Monitoring
According to the financial manual of ENTRO, quarterly and annual financial statements will be produced. The statements mainly include statement of cash receipts and payments, budget utilization and trial balance. These statements are presented to management of ENTRO and to the external auditors for review. ENTRO produces regular financial reports on timely basis to be used by various stakeholders, including the Bank.
For the grant, ENTRO will produce Interim Un-audited Financial Reports (IFRs) and will submit the IFRs to the Bank 45 days after the end of each quarter. At a minimum, the financial reports must include the sources and uses of funds, expenditures by main expenditure classifications, beginning and ending cash balances and other supporting schedules. The formats of the IFRs are attached.
The financial year of ENTRO is from 1 January to 31 December.
External Audit
In order to enhance the credibility of the financial statements, the annual financial statements are subject to external audit. The annual financial statements of ENTRO have been audited by an independent audit firm. Currently, there are no outstanding reports. The audit will be carried out in accordance with international standards issued by the International Federation of Accountants (IFAC). The terms of reference for the external audit had been cleared by the Bank for other Trust Funds and that will be applicable for this Grant as well. The annual audited financial statements, along with the management letter, will be submitted to NBTF not later than six months after the end of the fiscal year. According to the audit policy of the Bank, external auditors are expected to issue a single audit opinion on the consolidated financial statements of ENTRO, including financial transactions of the Grant.
Action Plan
| |Action to be taken |Expected completion date |Responsibility |
|1 |Recruitment of one additional finance |End of May 2007 |ENTRO |
| |officer to strengthen the Finance | | |
| |Department of ENTRO | | |
|2 |Issuance of one page guideline on how to |End of April 2007 |ENTRO |
| |mange the revolving funds to be established| | |
| |in each of the three countries | | |
Conditions
None
Financial covenants
ENTRO shall submit audited project financial statements no later than six months after the close of each fiscal year. ENTRO will submit IFRs 45 days after the end of each calendar year.
Supervision plan
Considering the nature of the project, the Bank’s supervision mission should be as regular as possible. Each year, there will be at least two main supervision missions
Attachment 1-
Formats of Interim Un-audited Financial Reports
(a) Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO)
Flood preparedness and Early Warning in the Eastern Nile (FPEW I)
Sources and Uses of fund
For the Quarter ending ………
In US$
| |Current Quarter |Cumulative to-date |
|Opening cash balance | | |
| | | |
|Add: Sources | | |
|World Bank | | |
|ENTRO contribution | | |
|Countries contribution | | |
| | | |
|Cash Available | | |
|Less: Uses of funds | | |
|Goods/equipments | | |
|Consultancy | | |
|Workshop and training | | |
|Operating Cost | | |
|Total Expenditures | | |
|Cash available less expenditures | | |
| | | |
|Closing cash balance | | |
(b) Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO)
Flood preparedness and Early Warning in the Eastern Nile (FPEW I)
Sources and Uses of fund
For the Quarter ending ………
In US$
|Project Component |Actual |Planned |Variance |PAD provision |
| |Current Quarter |Cumulative to date|Current Quarter|Cumulative to date |
|1. |Employment of Procurement Assistant |In process |08/2006 |This position will be financed through JMP trust |
| | | | |fund (TF055685) |
|2. |Creation of permanent tender committee at |In process |On going |Due to the regional specific of the program each |
| |ENTRO | | |tender committee for different tenders is created |
| | | | |on case by case basis. Two members (out of 6-7) |
| | | | |of each committee are permanent. Chairperson is a|
| | | | |Project Coordinator for relevant project. |
|3. |Finalize the Procurement Manual |In process |09/2006 |Final draft has been prepared. An independent |
| | | | |international consultant has been hired (through |
| | | | |Finnish bi-lateral funds) to review the draft. |
|4. |Additional needs for training to be assessed |In process |1st quarter |Procurement training will be a part of ENTRO |
| |and conducted as required | |2007 |training needs currently being assessed by an |
| | | | |independent consultant (financed through Finnish |
| | | | |bi-lateral funds). Procurement Officer will get |
| | | | |additional training (possibly through NBTF). |
4. Staff. Three (3) core staff (long term consultants other than the Regional Flood Coordinator who is already in place) will be hired to run the proposed RFCU (until such time it is operated from Addis). Additional administrative staff will be needed when the RFCU will be shifted to Khartoum. These positions will be advertised within the Eastern Nile region. Recruitment procedures will be on the basis of competition and follow standard World Bank procedures established for such situations.
One finance management staff with procurement experience would be employed at ENTRO initially at its head quarter in Addis Ababa. After transition to Khartoum separate procurement and finance staff (even a finance-cum-procurement staff in case it is possible to get one) will be recruited who would be primarily responsible for handling procurement under the project at ENTRO and monitoring and supervising the procurement activities at the NFPIs. The staff would also be responsible for maintaining all procurement documents.
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Prior Review: The World Bank will conduct a prior review of the following procurement documentation: (i) Procurement of Goods where the contract value is equal or greater than US$ 100,000; (ii) Consulting Firms where the contract value is equal or greater than US$100,000; (iii) Individual Consultants where the contract value is equal or greater than US$50,000; and (iv) All Direct contracting and Single Source Selection will be subject to prior review by the Bank.
Post Review. All contracts not subject to prior review will be subject to post review.
The overall project risk for procurement is Average.
(C) Procurement Plan
ENTRO, at appraisal, developed a Procurement Plan for project implementation which provides the basis for the procurement methods. This plan has been agreed between the ENTRO and the Project Team on January 1, 2007 and is available at ENTRO office located in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. It will also be available in the Project’s database and in the Bank’s external website. The Procurement Plan will be updated in agreement with the Project Team annually or as required to reflect the actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity.
(D) Frequency of Procurement Supervision:
In addition to the prior review supervision to be carried out from Bank offices, the capacity assessment of the Implementing Agency has recommended twice yearly supervision missions to visit the field to carry out post review of procurement actions.
Attachment 1
Procurement Packages with Methods and Time Schedule
(A) Goods/Equipments
|1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |7 |8 |
| | | | | | | |Implementing |
|Ref. No. |Description of Assignment |Estimated |Selection |Review |Expected |Comments |Agency |
| | |Cost |Method |by Bank |Proposals Submission | | |
| | | | |(Prior / Post) |Date | | |
|I |Consulting Firm | | | | | | |
|1 |Consultancy Service for Flood |200,000 |QCBS |Prior |September 2007 |12 months |ENTRO |
| |Risk Mapping - Ethiopia | | | | | | |
|2 |Consultancy Service for Flood |432,500 |QCBS |Prior |September 2007 |12 months |ENTRO |
| |Risk Mapping - Sudan | | | | | | |
|3 |Consultancy Service for |50,000 |SSS |Prior |June 2007 |3 months |NFP |
| |installing ETA[15] Model with | | | | | | |
| |Training –Sudan | | | | | | |
|4 |Consultancy Service for |60,000 |SSS |Prior |June 2007 | |ENTRO |
| |installing ETA[16] Model with | | | | | | |
| |Training –Ethiopia | | | | | | |
|5 |Consultancy Service to |80,000 |SSS |Prior |September 2007 | |NFP/ ENTRO |
| |Fine-tune Nile forecast system | | | | | | |
| |with Training –Ethiopia | | | | | | |
|6 |Consultancy Service to provide |40,000 |SSS |Prior |December 2007 | |NFP/ ENTRO |
| |Training on updated | | | | | | |
| |Systems-Egypt | | | | | | |
|7 |Consultancy Service to update |60,000 |SSS |Prior |September 2007 | |NFP |
| |the hydrologic model estimation| | | | | | |
| |system in Nile forecast | | | | | | |
| |Center-Egypt | | | | | | |
|II |Individual Consultant | | | | | | |
|1 |Regional Flood Coordinator |140,100 |IC |PRIOR |Nov 2006 |30 months |ENTRO |
|2 |WR/ |90,000 |IC |PRIOR |June 2007 |30 months |ENTRO |
| |Hydro meteorologist | | | | | | |
|3 |WR/ |90,000 |IC |Prior |June 2007 |30 months |ENTRO |
| |IT/GIS/DB | | | | | | |
| |Specialist | | | | | | |
|4 |Consultancy Service for |50,000 |IC |Post |September 2007 | |ENTRO |
| |Regional analysis and Studies | | | | | | |
|5 |Consultancy Service for |50,000 |IC |Post |September 2007 | |ENTRO |
| |Regional analysis and Studies | | | | | | |
| |for future project | | | | | | |
| |implementation | | | | | | |
|6 |Consultancy Service to train |42,000 |IC |Post |October 2007 | |NFP |
| |Pilot communities – Ethiopia | | | | | | |
|7 |Consultancy Service to train |42,000 |IC |Post |October 2007 | |NFP |
| |Pilot Communities - Sudan | | | | | | |
|8 |Consultacy Service for FPEW-II |Total: 50,000 |IC |Post |June 2007 | |ENTRO |
| |Proejct Implementation Proposal| | | | | | |
| |improvements (could be split up| | | | | | |
| |into two or three individual | | | | | | |
| |consultants)* | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
* any change in package would need Bank’s prior approval
Annex 9: Project Preparation and Supervision
Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
(FPEW I)
| |Planned |Actual |
|PCN review |- |01/12/2005 (for the overall FPEW) |
|Initial PID to PIC | |05/02/2005 |
|Initial ISDS to PIC | |07/26/2005 |
|Appraisal | |December 26-29, 2006 |
|Begin Grant Negotiations | |February 23, 2007 |
|Board/RVP approval (Grant Approval) | |May 1, 2007 |
|Planned date of effectiveness | |May 31, 2007 |
|Planned date of mid-term review | |October, 2008 |
|Planned closing date | |March, 2010 |
Key institutions responsible for preparation of the project:
i) The Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
ii) The Federal Ministry of Water Resources, Government of Ethiopia
iii) The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, Government of Sudan
iv) The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, Government of Egypt
v)
Bank staff and consultants who worked on the project included:
|Name |Title |Unit |
|E.V. Jagannathan |Senior Water Resources Engineer (TTL) |AFTNL |
|Barbara Miller |Lead Water Resources Specialist (Cluster |AFTNL |
| |Leader) | |
|Astrid Hiller |Senior Water Resources Specialist |AFTNL |
|Roxanne Hakim |Senior Anthropologist |AFTS2 |
|Michel Cawood |Consultant (Flood Specialist) | |
|Dr Selvarajan |Consultant (Economist) | |
|Zaure Schwade |Operational Analyst |AFTNL |
|Sophie Herrmann |Consultant |AFTNL |
|Eshetu Yimer |Senior Financial Management Specialist |AFTFM |
|Samuel Haile Selassie |Procurement Specialist |AFTPC |
Bank funds expended to date on project preparation:
Bank resources:
Trust funds:
Total:
Estimated Approval and Supervision costs:
Remaining costs to approval:
Estimated annual supervision cost:
Annex 10: Documents in the Project File
Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
(FPEW I)
|Reference |Brief description of contents |
|NBI Overview |This document describes the NBI, which is the transitional mechanism formed by the nine Nile riparian |
| |countries to promote cooperation among these countries for the joint development of their shared water |
| |resources. |
| |The NBI has two complementary programs that are designed to realize the shared vision of the riparian |
| |countries: the SVP and the SAP, which are investment programs involving two or more of the riparian |
| |countries. There are two subsidiary action programs—the Eastern Nile SAP and the Nile Equatorial Lakes |
| |SAP. |
| |Summary information is provided in Annex 1. The full document is available (electronically, by e-mail) |
| |from ENTRO, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia |
|ENSAP Project Identification Document |ENSAP, whose members are Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, has identified a joint project, the IDEN Project. The|
|(PID) |project is a mix of seven subprojects; the FPEW Project is one of these subprojects. The PID describes in|
| |detail the seven subprojects in the IDEN as agreed in Mach 2001. This document provides useful background|
| |information, although the nature of some of the projects has evolved. This document is available |
| |(electronically, by e-mail) from ENTRO. |
|Project Concept |This document provides an overview of the FPEW Project concept, including the strategic context, scope |
| |and focus, and potential components. It is provided as Annex 2 to these terms of reference. |
|Overview of Flooding in Eastern Nile |This is a summary of flooding in the three countries, which has been prepared from a set of three |
|Countries |documents produced by the NFCs in the three countries. The documents discuss nature of flooding in the |
| |countries including major flood-prone areas, existing institutional arrangements for flood damage |
| |mitigation, etc. |
| |The summary is provided in Annex 3 and the full country reports are available from ENTRO (electronic, by |
| |e-mail). |
|Baseline Technical Assessment and |This reference is a preliminary compilation of background information on the nature of floods, flood |
|Information Inventory |forecasting, and existing coping mechanisms in Eastern Nile countries. The background report also |
| |includes an inventory of pertinent available information. |
| |The full background report will be made available to short-listed firms interested in submitting |
| |proposals from ENTRO (electronically, by e-mail). |
|Baseline Social Analysis of |It is planned that a preliminary social analysis of representative affected communities will be |
|Representative Flood-prone Communities|undertaken before this consultancy so that the findings can feed into project design (specifically |
|in the Eastern Nile |concerning the role and organization of the community) as well as provide important input to the EMF and |
| |RPF. |
| |The scope of work for the social analysis will be made available to short-listed firms interested in |
| |submitting proposals. The full study will be will be available at the time of the consultancy. |
|Samples of PIPs |The PIP is the client’s document which will be used to implement the project. The PIP also provides input|
| |to the financier’s appraisal documents. Key elements of a PIP are provided in Annex 4. Examples of PIPs |
| |from other projects can be obtained from ENTRO. |
Annex 11: Country at a Glance
Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
(FPEW I)
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Annex 12: Map
Flood Preparedness and Early Warning in the Eastern Nile - Phase 1
(FPEW I)
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[1] Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. Eritrea is an observer.
[2] Water Resources Sector Strategy: Strategic Direction for World Bank Engagement, adopted by the World Bank Board, February 25, 2003.
[3] The identification of pilot mapping areas will consider and respond to recent flood events.
[4] See tabulations of Recommended Target Areas for Lake Tana and Sudan on pages 21 & 23 respectively in “Social Baseline Analysis – Operational Guidelines” by Jennifer Bush, The Food Economy Group, December 2005 and note that these target areas have been further refined during Project Preparation (SMEC, 2007).
[5] The rationale and criteria for selecting communities for training and sub-projects and the identification of such communities will be based on criteria developed during Project Preparation (SMEC, 2007) and will take into account a range of factors such as severity of flood, accessibility, capacity in the community and at local administration level, eligibility of proposed interventions within the FPEW envelope and objectives., etc.
[6] Tools are likely to include local colour coded flood totem poles, river staff gauges, locally relevant flood response plans and associated training.
[7] The competitively hired Regional Flood Coordinator will charge the Project for the services rendered.
[8] Goods required to upgrade National forecast centers include Hand tools, Computers including Net work and Software
[9] Goods required to upgrade National forecast centers include Hand tools, Computers including Net work and Software
[10] Goods required to upgrade National forecast centers include Hand tools, Computers including Net work and Software
[11] Goods required to strengthen local communities to increase their preparedness for flood e.g. include Hand tools, shelters, warehouses, communication tools ..etc.
[12] Goods required to strengthen local communities to increase their preparedness for flood e.g. include Hand tools, shelters, warehouses, communication tools ..etc.
[13] Goods required to strengthen local communities to increase their preparedness for flood e.g. include Hand tools, shelters, warehouses, communication tools ..etc.
[14] Goods required to strengthen local communities to increase their preparedness for flood e.g. include Hand tools, shelters, warehouses, communication tools..etc.
[15] Rainfall forecasting model
[16] Rainfall forecasting model
-----------------------
Invoice Payments
Invoice Payments
National Procurements
Goods, Equipments
National Institutions
Consultancy
National Focal Point Inst
Manage, Supervise, Approve Works
ENTRO
ENSAPT
Local Support Staff
IT, Secretary, Procurement/Finance,
junior technical staff, ..etc.
ENTRO Branch Office
Khartoum (RFCU),
Regional Flood Coodinator
Regional IT/GIS Specialist
ENTRO Main Office
Addis Ababa,
Projects Coordination Unit (Senior Coordinator, presently the regional coordinator for the flood and model))
Regional Hydro meteorologist
NFPI Represented
by NFC in
Each Country (supported by national flood forecasting centers)
Donor
World Bank
NBTF
Independent Audit
ENSAPT Leader
In Each Country
Board of Regional/International
Advisors/Peer Reviewers
for ENSAP projects
Monitoring and Evaluation
ENCOM
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