S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Internet & Direct Marketing Retail

S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Internet & Direct Marketing Retail

Yardeni Research, Inc.

December 31, 2021

Dr. Ed Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

S&P 500 Internet & Direct Marketing Retail

Stock Price Index

1

Forward Revenues & Earnings with Annual Squiggles

2

Annual Growth Squiggles

3

Margins & NERI

4

Forward Growth & Valuation

5

December 31, 2021 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Internet & Direct Marketing Retail

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Stock Price Index

18075 15075 12075

9075

Figure 1.

S&P 500 INTERNET & DIRECT MARKETING RETAIL STOCK PRICE INDEX* (AMZN EBAY ETSY)

6075

3075

12/31

18075 15075 12075 9075 6075

3075



75

75

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

200-day moving average. * Ratio scale.

Source: Standard & Poor's and Haver Analytics.

20025 16025 12025 8025

4025

Figure 2.

S&P 500 INTERNET & DIRECT MARKETING RETAIL INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALx7U5ATION

Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Index

12/31/21

x45

Blue Angels Implied Price Index* 12/23/21

x10

20025 16025 12025 8025

4025



25

25

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 1 / December 31, 2021 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Yardeni Research, Inc.



Forward Revenues & Earnings with Annual Squiggles

Figure 3.

4650

4650

S&P 500 INTERNET & DIRECT MARKETING RETAIL REVENUES PER SHARE

12/23

3900 (analysts' average forecasts, ratio scale)

22

3900

3150

21

3150

2400

Consensus Forecasts

2400

Annual estimates

1650

Forward revenues*

1650

900

900



150

150

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 4.

351.5

301.5 S&P 500 INTERNET & DIRECT MARKETING RETAIL OPERATING EPS 251.5 (analysts' average forecasts, ratio scale)

201.5

151.5

Consensus Forecasts

101.5

Annual estimates

Forward earnings*

51.5

22 21

12/23

351.5 301.5 251.5 201.5 151.5 101.5

51.5



1.5

1.5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 2 / December 31, 2021 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Yardeni Research, Inc.



Annual Growth Squiggles

Figure 5.

50

50

S&P 500 INTERNET & DIRECT MARKETING RETAIL ANNUAL REVENUE GROWTH FORECASTS*

(based on analysts' consensus estimates, percent, weekly)

40

11

40

30

30

16

17

18

12

20

13

21

20

14 15

20

19

22

2011 (40.2)

2017 (28.4)

10

2012 (24.9)

2018 (27.9)

10

2013 (22.2)

2019 (17.9)

2014 (20.4)

2020 (25.2)

2015 (19.1)

2021 (21.9)

Latest data thru 12/23/21

2016 (27.0)

2022 (17.8)



0

0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 6.

160

160

S&P 500 INTERNET & DIRECT MARKETING RETAIL ANNUAL EARNINGS GROWTH FORECASTS*

140 (based on analysts' consensus estimates, percent, weekly)

140

2011 (-0.1)

2017 (8.8)

120

2012 (-14.5)

2018 (95.8)

120

2013 (41.9)

2019 (13.4)

100

2014 (12.4)

2020 (-2.2)

2015 (23.4)

2021 (-1.8)

18

100

80

2016 (44.3)

2022 (25.6)

80

60

60

40

13

16

40

20

15

22 20

14

17

19

0

11

20 21

0

12

-20

-20

-40

-40

Latest data thru 12/23/21



-60

-60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 3 / December 31, 2021 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Yardeni Research, Inc.



Margins & NERI

Figure 7.

9

9

S&P 500 INTERNET & DIRECT MARKETING RETAIL PROJECTED PROFIT MARGIN

(using analysts' average earnings and revenues forecasts)

8

21

8

22

7

7

6

6

5

5

12/23

4

4

Consensus Forecasts

Annual estimates

3

Forward profit margin* (4.8)

3



2

2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 8.

80

80

S&P 500 INTERNET & DIRECT MARKETING RETAIL NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

0

-20

-20

Dec

-40

-40

NERI

-60

Oct -19.8

-60

Nov -25.8

Dec -30.1 -80

-80

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 4 / December 31, 2021 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Yardeni Research, Inc.



Forward Growth & Valuation

Figure 9.

100

100

S&P 500 INTERNET & DIRECT MARKETING RETAIL STRG, STEG, & LTEG*

(percent)

80

80

LTEG (37.5)

STEG (25.6)

STRG (17.8)

60

60

40

40

12/23

20

20

0

0



-20

-20

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* STEG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term earnings growth. STRG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term revenue growth. LTEG is five-year consensus expected long-term earnings growth. Monthly data through 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 10.

90

90

S&P 500 INTERNET & DIRECT MARKETING RETAIL VALUATION

80

80

70

70

12/23

60

Forward P/E* (66.3)

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

4.0

4.0

Relative P/E** (3.0)

3.5

PEG Ratio*** (1.8)

3.5

3.0

12/23

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

.5

.5

Relative P/E and PEG capped at 3.



.0

.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast.

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 5 / December 31, 2021 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Yardeni Research, Inc.



Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2021. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted on , bhltotpg:./y/barlodgen.yi.acrodmen,odmYRI's Apps are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company's stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.

The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc. product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of , bhltotpg:./y/barlodgen.yia.crodmen,odmYRI's Apps may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company's emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request.s@

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download