Dividend Aristocrats - S&P Dow Jones Indices
[Pages:9]Dividend Aristocrats
Sam Stovall, September 14, 2017
Dividend Aristocrats vs. S&P 500
Relative Price Return of the S&P Dividend Aristocrat vs. S&P 500 and FOMC Rate Tightening Cycles Since 1989
0.55 0.50
Rate Hikes
0.45
0.40
S&P 500 Dividend
0.35
Aristocrats Index Divided by the S&P
500 Index
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
Dec-89 Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Source: CFRA, S&P DJ Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data 12/31/1989-9/11/2017.
2
Dividend Aristocrats vs. S&P 500
Company Count Distribution by Sector Within the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats and the S&P 500 Index
30%
25% 25%
Dividend Aristocrats
20% 17%
S&P 500
18%
15% 12%
10%
5%
0% CD
13% 14% 12%
10%
7%
6%
4%
13% 13%
10%
6% 5%
6%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
CS
E
F
HC
I
IT
M
RE
TS
U
Source: CFRA, S&P DJ Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data 12/31/1989-9/11/2017.
3
S&P Indicated Dividend Rate Changes
Annual Growth in S&P 500 Indicated Dividend: The Decline is Likely Over
30% 25% 20%
17.9%
26.5%
20.2%
20.4%
17.5%
15% 10%
13.1%
12.0%
10.5%
5%
0% 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 2017 YTD
Source: CFRA, S&P DJ Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data as of 8/11/17.
4
Consistency: The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats
Cumulative Returns Since 1999 for The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Outpaced the S&P 500 Index by a More Than 3:1 Margin With Lower Annual Volatility
500% 450% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100%
50% 0%
Cumulative Total Returns Standard Deviation of Monthly Returns
139%
14.7% S&P 500 Index
443%
13.5% S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats
Source: CFRA, S&P DJ Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data: 12/31/1999- 9/11/2017.
5
S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats: Relative Valuations
The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats' Relative P/E Ratio is Projected to Drop Below its Long-Term Average
1.20
1.10
Projected
1.00
Relative P/E Ratio
0.90
Average Since 2004
(1.04X)
0.80
Source: CFRA, S&P DJ Indices, Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data as of 9/11/17.
6
Income-Oriented Investors: Think Like Landlords
Fluctuations of Price and Annual Income of Exxon Mobil (XOM $81 ***)
$110 $100
$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30
$3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $-
XOM price (Left Scale)
12-Month Income Stream (Right Scale)
Source: CFRA, S&P DJ Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. CFRA STARS and share price as of 8/31/17.
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Disclosures
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The content of this presentation and the opinions expressed herein are those of CFRA based upon publicly-available information that CFRA believes to be reliable and the opinions are subject to change without notice. This analysis has not been submitted to, nor received approval from, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission or any other regulatory body. While CFRA exercised due care in compiling this analysis, CFRA AND ALL RELATED ENTITIES SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, to the full extent permitted by law, regarding the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of this information and assumes no liability with respect to the consequences of relying on this information for investment or other purposes. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of CFRA. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. CFRA and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content.
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