YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast - Yardeni Research

YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.

February 7, 2022

Dr. Ed Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

jabbott@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

S&P 500 Earnings: YRI vs. Consensus Forecasts (2/7/2022)

Yardeni Research

Analysts' Consensus

Figure A: YardLeevenl i ReseaYrOcYh% S&P 500LevEelarningsYFOYo%recast

2009

60.80

-7.3

60.80

-7.3

2010

85.32

40.3

85.32

40.3

2011

97.82

14.7

97.82

14.7

2012

103.80

6.1

103.80

6.1

2013

109.68

5.7

109.68

5.7

2014

117.86

7.5

117.86

7.5

2015

117.46

-0.3

117.46

-0.3

2016

118.04 a

0.5

118.04 a

0.5

2017

131.98 a

11.8

131.98 a

11.8

2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

161.93 a 38.07 a 41.00 a 42.66 a 41.18 a

22.7 23.2 25.8 27.5 14.3

161.93 a 38.07 a 41.00 a 42.66 a 41.18 a

22.7 23.2 25.8 27.5 14.3

2019

162.97 a

0.6

162.97 a

0.6

Q1

39.15 a

2.8

39.15 a

2.8

Q2

41.31 a

0.8

41.31 a

0.8

Q3

42.14 a

-1.2

42.14 a

-1.2

Q4

42.00 a

2.0

41.99 a

2.0

2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

139.76 a 33.13 a 27.98 a 38.69 a 42.60 a

-14.2 -15.4 -32.3

-8.2 1.4

139.76 a 33.13 a 27.98 a 38.69 a 42.60 a

-14.2 -15.4 -32.3

-8.2 1.5

2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

210.00 e 49.13 a 52.75 a 53.89 a 55.00 e

50.3 48.3 88.5 39.3 29.1

207.63 e 49.13 a 52.75 a 53.89 a 53.12 e

48.6 48.3 88.5 39.3 24.7

2022 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

225.00 e 53.00 e 56.00 e 57.00 e 59.00 e

7.1

225.06 e

8.4

7.9

52.06 e

6.0

6.2

55.41 e

5.0

5.8

58.28 e

8.1

7.3

59.27 e

11.6

2023

250.00 e

11.1

248.02 e

10.2

e=estimate. * Historical earnings growth rates and earnings are not adjusted for accounting and index composition changes.

Source: Yardeni Research, Inc. and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 1 / February 7, 2022 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.

S&P 500: YRI Forecasts (1/17/2022)

Y/Y Revenue Growth (%)

Revenue

E/R (Margin %)

Earnings

Figure B: YRI S&P 500 Revenue, Earnings & Margin Forecast

2009

-12.9

908.40 a

6.7 a

60.80 a

2010

6.0

962.70 a

8.9 a

85.32 a

2011

9.4

1052.83 a

9.3 a

97.82 a

2012

3.8

1092.38 a

9.5 a

103.80 a

2013

2.2

1116.81 a

9.8 a

109.68 a

2014

4.2

1163.31 a

10.1 a

117.86 a

2015

-3.3

1124.39 a

10.4 a

117.46 a

2016

2.2

1149.18 a

10.3 a

118.04 a

2017

7.2

Q1

7.4

Q2

5.8

Q3

6.0

Q4

9.5

1231.57 a 292.78 a 300.98 a 308.22 a 329.59 a

10.7 a 10.6 a 10.8 a 10.9 a 10.9 a

131.98 a 30.90 a 32.58 a 33.45 a 36.02 a

2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

9.0 9.4 11.2 10.7 5.2

1343.01 a 320.39 a 334.64 a 341.27 a 346.71 a

12.1 a 11.9 a 12.3 a 12.5 a 11.9 a

161.93 a 38.07 a 41.00 a 42.66 a 41.18 a

2019

5.4

Q1

5.8

Q2

5.2

Q3

4.0

Q4

6.6

1415.20 a 338.85 a 351.91 a 355.02 a 369.42 a

11.5 a 11.6 a 11.7 a 11.9 a 11.4 a

162.97 a 39.15 a 41.31 a 42.14 a 41.99 a

2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

-3.9 -1.8 -10.3 -2.3 -0.5

1359.41 a 332.59 a 315.61 a 346.71 a 367.48 a

10.3 a 10.0 a

8.9 a 11.2 a 11.6 a

139.76 a 33.13 a 27.98 a 38.69 a 42.60 a

2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

14.4 9.5 21.8 13.9 11.6

1555.00 e 364.05 a 384.51 a 395.07 a 410.00 e

13.5 e 13.5 e 13.7 e 13.6 e 13.4 e

210.00 e 49.13 a 52.75 a 53.89 a 55.00 e

2022

7.7

1675.00 e

13.4 e

225.00 e

2023

6.0

1775.00 e

e=estimate. Source: Yardeni Research, Inc. and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

14.1 e

250.00 e

Page 2 / February 7, 2022 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.



YRI S&P 500 Revenue, Earnings & Margin Targets

Figure 1.

1800

1800

S&P 500 REVENUES & YRI FORECASTS

1700

(dollars per share, ratio scale)

1700

1600

1500

YRI Forecasts

2021 (1555.00)

1400

2022 (1675.00) 2023 (1775.00)

22 23

Q3

1600 1500 1400

1300

Consensus Forecasts

1300

2022 (1668.13)

2023 (1759.96)

1200

1200

1100

1100

S&P Actual RPS

RPS* (1511.11)

1000

1000



Latest data thru 01/27/22

900

900

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Four-quarter trailing sum of revenues per share. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 2.

275

275

250 S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE & YRI FORECASTS

250

(dollars per share, ratio scale)

225

23

225

200

YRI Forecasts

2021 (210.00)

175

2022 (225.00)

2023 (250.00)

150

Q3

200

22

175

150

Consensus Forecasts

125

2022 (225.03)

125

2023 (248.02)

100

100

I/B/E/S Actual EPS

75

EPS* (198.37)

75



Latest data thru 02/03/22

50

50

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Four-quarter trailing sum of operating earnings per share. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 3 / February 7, 2022 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.

YRI S&P 500 Revenue, Earnings & Margin Targets

Figure 3.

15

15

S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN & YRI FORECASTS

14

(percent)

23

14

13

YRI Forecasts

22

Q3

13

2021 (13.5)

12

2022 (13.4)

12

2023 (14.1)

11

Consensus Forecasts

11

2022 (13.2)

2023 (13.8)

10

10

9

9

8

8

Actual Margin

7

Profit Margin* (13.1)

7

6

6



Latest data thru 01/27/22

5

5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Four-quarter trailing operating profit margin. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor's.

Figure 4.

290

290

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL

240

(I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv)

(dollars per share, ratio scale)

240 2/3

190

YRI Forward Earnings Forecast

2022 (250.00)

140

2023 (265.00)

Q3 190 140

90

90

Earnings Per Share

Forward* (227.24) Operating** (4Q sum) (198.37)



40

40

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, then weekly. ** From S&P until Q4-1993, then from I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 4 / February 7, 2022 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.

YRI S&P 500 Revenue, Earnings & Margin Targets

Figure 5.

25

24 S&P 500 FORWARD P/E*

25

Latest (19.8) 24

23

23

22

22

21

20

YRI Forward

P/E Forecast

19

2022 (19.2)

18

2023 (19.6)

21

2/4

20

19

18

17

17

16

16

15

15

14

14

13

13

12

12

11

11

10

10



9

9

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Standard & Poor's and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 6.

7000

6500 6000

S&P 500 INDEX & YRI FORECASTS

5500

(ratio scale)

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

YRI Forecasts (red line)

7000

6500

5200 5600 4800

6000 5500

5000

2/4

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000



500

500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 5 / February 7, 2022 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.

YRI S&P 500 Revenue, Earnings & Margin Targets

Figure 7.

185

185

165

S&P 500 ACTUAL & FORWARD REVENUES (ratio scale)

1/27

165

Q3

145

145

125

125

105

105

85

Actual Revenues

85

Divided by 10

(quarterly, annualized, nsa) (158.0)

Forward

65

Revenues* Divided by 10 (168.1)

65

4% Growth Rate**



45

45

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly. ** Compounded monthly to yield 4% annually.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 8.

310

260

S&P 500 ACTUAL & FORWARD EARNINGS & REVENUES

210

(ratio scale)

310

260 2/3

210

160

160

110

110

60

60

Forward Earnings* (227.2)

Forward Revenues* Divided by 10 (168.1)

7% Growth Rate**



10

10

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly. ** Compounded monthly to yield 7% annually.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 6 / February 7, 2022 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.

YRI S&P 500 Revenue, Earnings & Margin Targets

Figure 9.

310

260 S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE

WITH 5%-7% CAGR* PATHS

210

(Dec 1978 = 13.07, ratio scale)

310

260

7%

Jan

210

160

160

110

6%

110

5%

60

60



10

10

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Compounded annual growth rate from base value using monthly data. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 10.

8090

7090 S&P 500 INDEX PRICE WITH 8%-10% CAGR GROWTH PATHS

6090 (base period Dec 1978 = 96.11, ratio scale)

5090

4090

3090

10%

2090

9%

Latest (4573.82)

8% 1090

8090 7090 6090 5090 Jan 4090 3090

2090

1090



90

90

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 7 / February 7, 2022 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download