Quarterly Market Perspective - Fidelity Investments
Second-Quarter 2024
SUMMARY
The following pages provide greater detail into some of the themes discussed in the Quarterly Market Perspective video:
1.
MARKET SUMMARY: Stocks in most regions across the globe moved higher on improved economic activity, but interest rates rose,
which weighed on bond returns.
2.
BUSINESS CYCLE: The U.S. economy remains in the late phase of an expansion, supported by a strong job market
and robust consumer spending.
3.
INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Within client portfolios, we maintained relatively low risk levels compared to long-term targets due to
the wide range of potential outcomes that accompanies the late phase of expansions.
4.
DIVERSIFICATION: The global stock market rally appears to be broadening into different stock types and regions, driven by improved
manufacturing activity and rising leading economic indicators.
5.
STAYING INVESTED: We believe that by staying with their investment plans, investors may be best positioned to achieve their
financial goals.
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS / QUARTERLY MARKET PERSPECTIVE / SECOND-QUARTER 2024
2
1. MARKET SUMMARY
Improved economic activity spurred global stocks higher, but interest rates rose, which weighed on bond returns
? While higher interest rates remain a concern, U.S. stocks experienced strong gains for the quarter, supported by a healthy jobs market, positive wage growth, and high household net worth that may further support spending and the economy.
? International stocks also experienced gains, supported by historically low unemployment, improving wage growth, and stable corporate profits.
? Bonds fell slightly this quarter as interest rates rose in response to increased economic activity and continued concerns about elevated inflation.
Stocks rose in the first quarter of 2024, but bonds were down slightly due to higher interest rates
Hypothetical growth of $100,000
$220,000.00
U.S. Stocks
International Stocks
Bonds
Q1 2024
$200,000.00 $180,000.00
$194,486
$160,000.00
$140,000.00 $120,000.00 $100,000.00
$134,705 $101,823
$80,000.00
$60,000.00
This chart illustrates the performance of a hypothetical $100,000 investment made in the indexes noted above. Index returns include reinvestment of capital gains and dividends, if any, but do not reflect any fees or expenses. This chart is not intended to imply any future performance of the investment product.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. All indexes are unmanaged. Please see Important Information for index definitions. Source: Fidelity Investments, as of 3/31/2024. U.S. stocks--Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index; international stocks--MSCI All Country World Ex US Index (Net MA); bonds--Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index.
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS / QUARTERLY MARKET PERSPECTIVE / SECOND-QUARTER 2024
3
1. MARKET SUMMARY
Stocks have historically achieved above-average returns after reaching an all-time high
? The orange line on this chart shows cumulative monthly stock returns.* The blue lines represent the all-time highs that occurred during this period.
? Historically, stocks have tended to continue to rise further after reaching all-time highs, with selloffs being unusual. In fact, average total returns one year after an alltime high stood at 12.7%, versus 12.4% over other 12-month periods.
? That is why we believe it is important to stay invested in stocks even after they have reached an all-time high.
Cumulative S&P 500? Index total return Index and its all-time highs
(1950?2023)
10,000
All-time highs
S&P 500 Index
1,000
100
Cumulative S&P 500 ? index total return index
10 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
* Stocks are represented by S&P 500? index total returns from 1950 to 2023. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., from 12/31/1949 to12/31/2023, daily data. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. All indexes are unmanaged. Please see Important Information for index definitions. Average one-year total return was 12.4% over this time period.
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS / QUARTERLY MARKET PERSPECTIVE / SECOND-QUARTER 2024
4
2. BUSINESS CYCLE
The U.S. economy remains in the late phase of an expansion and exhibited some signs of reacceleration
? The late phase of the business cycle has historically been good for stock market performance, but returns have been more muted, and bouts of volatility have been more common. The business cycle is just one of several important inputs our investment team uses to manage risk within client accounts.
Four phases of an economy's business cycle
? Economic growth typically slows in the late phase, as higher interest rates and inflation can lead to softer economic activity.
? This analysis extends to other major economies around the world, most of which are also in late-cycle expansion and showed signs of stabilization.
Asset classes*
30% 20% 10%
0% -10% -20%
U.S Stocks International Stocks Bonds High-Yield Bonds Short-Term Commodities
Early
Mid
Late
Recession
*Asset class total returns are represented by indexes from the following sources: Fidelity Investments, Morningstar, and Bloomberg. Fidelity Investments source: a proprietary analysis of historical asset class performance, which is not indicative of future performance. From 1950?2022, as of 3/31/24. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
A growth recession is a significant decline in activity relative to a country's long-term economic potential. Note: The diagram above is a hypothetical illustration of the business cycle--the pattern of cyclical fluctuations in an economy over a few years that can influence asset returns over an intermediate-term horizon. There is not always a chronological, linear progression among the phases of the business cycle, and there have been cycles when the economy has skipped a phase or retraced an earlier one. Source: Fidelity Investments (AART), as of 3/31/24.
Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index--U.S. stocks; MSCI All Country World Ex US Index (Net MA)--international stocks; Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index--high-quality bonds; ICE BofA US High Yield Index--high-yield bonds; Bloomberg 3?6 Month US Treasury Bill Index--short-term investments; Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return Index--commodities. Please see Important Information for index definitions.
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS / QUARTERLY MARKET PERSPECTIVE / SECOND-QUARTER 2024
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