Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 and DJIA 1921-Now
Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 and DJIA 1921-Now
Yardeni Research, Inc.
May 31, 2023
Dr. Edward Yardeni
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Joe Abbott
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Mali Quintana
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Dow & S&P 500
1-5
May 31, 2023 / Market Corrections: S&P 500 and DJIA 1921-Now
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Dow & S&P 500
45040 36040
27040
Figure 1.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE (ratio scale)
18040
9040
45040
May
36040
27040
18040
9040
40
40
1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Source: The Wall Street Journal.
Figure 2.
6004
5004 4004
S&P 500 INDEX
3004 (ratio scale monthly)
2004
1004
6004
5004
May
4004
3004
2004
1004
4
4
1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Blue shaded areas are correction declines of 10% to less than 20%. Yellow areas are bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 1 / May 31, 2023 / Market Corrections: S&P 500 and DJIA 1921-Now
Yardeni Research, Inc.
60040 50040 40040 30040
20040
Dow & S&P 500
Figure 3.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE* WITH 4%-6% CAGR PATHS (base period price Dec 1917 = 74.38, ratio scale)
10040
Latest (32908)
6%
May
5%
4%
60040 50040 40040 30040 20040
10040
40
40
1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032
* Compounded monthly using base value. Source: The Wall Street Journal.
Figure 4.
7519
7519
6019 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS* AVERAGE 2%-6% CAGR PATHS
6019
4519 (base period price Dec 2016 = 19,763, ratio scale divided by 1000)
4519
3019
3019 6%
1519
1519 5%
4%
3%
2%
5/31
19
19
2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057 2062 2067 2072 2077 2082 2087 2092 2097 2102 2107 2112 2117
* Compounded monthly using base value. Source: Yardeni Research Inc.
Page 2 / May 31, 2023 / Market Corrections: S&P 500 and DJIA 1921-Now
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Dow & S&P 500
50040 40040
30040
Figure 5.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE* WITH 2%-6% CAGR PATHS (base period price Dec 1920 = 75.09, ratio scale)
20040
10040
DJIA Index (32908) Index/CPI (2136)
6% May
5%
4%
50040 40040 30040 20040
10040
3% 2%
40
40
1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
* Compounded monthly using base value. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Wall Street Journal.
Figure 6.
60.05
45.05 S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHARE*
30.05
(dollars, quarterly, ratio scale)
15.05
5004 Q1 4004
3004 2004
1004
S&P 500 Reported EPS (49.5) S&P 500 Index (4146.2)
.05
4
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25
* Q4-2008 not shown because of large negative value. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 3 / May 31, 2023 / Market Corrections: S&P 500 and DJIA 1921-Now
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Dow & S&P 500
Figure 7.
1260000000..55 12000.5
S&P 500 INDEXES WITH
8000.5 3%-11% CAGR GROWTH PATHS
4000.5
(Dec 1935 = 1, ratio scale)
11%
Nominal S&P 500 Index
10%
Total Return Price Index* (6285.1)
Price Index (311.2)
9%
8%
7%
6% 5%
4% 3%
1260000000..55 12000.5 8000.5 May 4000.5
May
.5
.5
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30
* Dividends reinvested quarterly until January 4, 1988, then daily. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's.
300009 240009 180009 120009
60009
Figure 8.
S&P 500 TOTAL RETURN INDEX WITH 6% TO 11% CAGR GROWTH PATHS
(base period Dec 1935 = 14.96, ratio scale)
S&P 500 Total Return Index* (92180) Total Return Index/CPI** (4214)
11% 10%
9% 8% 7% 6%
300009 240009 180009 120009 Q1 60009
Q1
9
9
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
* Includes reinvested dividends. ** Using last month of quarter CPI. Compounded monthly using base value.
Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 4 / May 31, 2023 / Market Corrections: S&P 500 and DJIA 1921-Now
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Dow & S&P 500
Figure 9.
700.9 600.9 500.9
S&P 500 INDEXES WITH
400.9 7%-15% CAGR GROWTH PATHS
300.9
(Dec 1979 = 1, ratio scale)
200.9
Nominal S&P 500 Index
100.9
Total Return Price Index* (118.7)
Price Index (38.7)
15%
13% May
11% 9% May 7%
700.9 600.9 500.9 400.9 300.9 200.9
100.9
.9
.9
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
* Dividends reinvested quarterly until January 4, 1988, then daily. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Figure 10.
445284...000555 36.05
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHARE*
30.05
(dollars, quarterly, ratio scale)
24.05
18.05
12.05
6.05
Q1 445284...000555 36.05 30.05 24.05 18.05 12.05
6.05
.05
.05
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25
* Q4-2008 not shown because of large negative value. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 5 / May 31, 2023 / Market Corrections: S&P 500 and DJIA 1921-Now
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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