December 30, 2011



March 10, 2017

 

Dear Investors,

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower for only the third time this year on a weekly basis. However, it was a very interesting week on Wall Street as markets’ internals were much weaker than the price action suggests. The number of stocks hitting new 52-week lows on the New York Stock Exchange has been increasing daily. The broadening divergence between the markets’ prices and their 10-day advance/decline line is frightening. All of this is happening as we approach another Fibonacci phi mate turning point ideally pegged for March 20th. However, we are inside a Fibonacci cluster, which is a series of smaller mathematical turning points. In addition, the markets tend to have a significant trend change around the spring equinox. All of these factors are converging when the major rising bearish wedge that began last year is at extreme over-bought levels.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped its six-week winning streak by falling 102.73 points, or -0.5%, to close at 20,902.98 this week, and is up 5.8% this year. The S&P 500 Index lost 10.52 points, or -0.4%, to close this week at 2,372.60, and is up 6.0% this year. The NASDAQ Composite slipped 9.02 points, or -0.2%, this week to close at 5,861.73, and is up 8.9% this year. The Russell 2000 dropped 28.87 points, or -2.1%, this week to close at 1,365.26, and is up just 0.6% this year. It was a tough week for gold inside its corrective price decline falling $30.50, or -2.5%, this week to close at $1,204.50 an ounce, but it is still up 13.5% year to date.

The big economic news of the week was a stronger than expected February Jobs Report. This may come as a surprise to many of you but Trump had nothing to do with the continued bogus government survey. It is not based on any facts. Historically, the January and February reports are better than expected because people that are filling out the survey expect tax season hiring. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 235,000 jobs were added last month. But more than half of them were the result of the purely hypothetical assumption of new businesses created. The best news of the survey is that the labor participation rate ticked up to its highest level in a year. Perhaps tax season hiring had something to do with it or it is pure coincidence.

This week the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates, as they promised many times before. In 2015, the economy was terrible and the Fed did not want to admit it and then in 2016, they did not want to raise rates during an election year. Now, I believe that they will raise rates by at least 0.25%, and I would not be surprised if rates were raised by 0.5%. The economy and economic data do not support such a move, but the Fed appears to make decisions based on the stock market and sentiment.

I appreciate your feedback and referrals over the last two months. Over the last year, we have helped clients realize that they can retire sooner than they expected. If you or someone you know is contemplating retirement, but think that you may not be able to retire comfortably, then I encourage you to come in and see how our B.E.L.I.E.V.E. Wealth Management process can clarify your retirement goals. Our no-obligation consultation could be the first step toward your retirement goal.

Please call our office or email info@.

Vincent Pallitto, CPA, CFP®   

Summit Asset Management, Inc.



973-301-2360

973-301-2370 Fax

A branch office of, and securities offered through LPL Financial

Member FINRA SIPC

 

You cannot invest directly in a market index, market indices are for benchmark purposes.  The information in this market commentary is obtained from various news sources, and . 

Fibonacci Phi Date (also known as Fibonacci Time Extensions) is a technical indicator used to seek to identify the timing of significant price movement in the market, and is based on the Fibonacci Number Sequence.

The Hindenburg Omen is a combination of technical factors that attempt to measure the health of the NYSE, and by extension, the stock market as a whole.  The goal of the indicator is to signal increased probability of a stock market crash.

The McClellan Oscillator is a market breadth indicator used in technical analysis by financial analysts of the New York Stock Exchange to evaluate the balance between the advancing and declining stocks.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.  To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you consult your financial advisor prior to investing.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors.

The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market.

The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 index, which represents approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.

The Blue Chip Index is a stock index that tracks the shares of the top-performing publicly traded companies.  These indices are unmanaged, which cannot be invested into directly.

Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.

Past performance is no guarantee of future result.

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