Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
January 11, 2023
Dr. Edward Yardeni
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Joe Abbott
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Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333 djohnson@
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Bulls & Bears Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 AAII Sentiment Bull & Bears
1 2 3 4 5 6-12
January 11, 2023 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Bulls & Bears
Figure 1.
6
6
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS
5
Ratio
Ratio
5
Bull/Bear
Dec 27
NA
4
Ratio*
Jan 3
1.08
Jan 10
1.26
4
3
3
2
2
1/10
1
1
0
0
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
80
80
75
Percentage
Bulls Bears
75
70
Bulls
Dec 27
NA
NA
Jan 3
36.6
33.8
70
65
Bears
Jan 10
41.4
32.9
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
1/10
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
50
50
45
Percentage
Correction
45
Correction
Dec 27
NA
40
Jan 3
29.6
40
Jan 10
25.7
35
35
30
30
25
1/10
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Blue shaded areas are correction declines of 10% to less than 20%. Yellow areas are bull markets. Source: Investors Intelligence.
Page 1 / January 11, 2023 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
Figure 2.
5200
4700 4200
3700
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE* (ratio scale)
3200
2700
2200
1700
1200
700
5200
4700
1/10
4200 3700
3200
2700
2200
1700
1200
700
200
200
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Standard & Poor's and Investors Intelligence.
41600 36600 31600 26600
21600
Figure 3.
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE* (ratio scale)
16600
11600
41600 36600 1/10 31600 26600 21600
16600
11600
6600
6600
1600
1600
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Page 2 / January 11, 2023 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
Figure 4.
5200
4700 4200
3700
S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*
3200
(daily, ratio scale)
2700
2200
1700
1200
700
5200
4700
1/10
4200 3700
3200
2700
2200
1700
1200
700
200
200
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Standard & Poor's and Investors Intelligence.
41600 36600 31600 26600
21600
Figure 5.
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS* (ratio scale)
16600
11600
41600 36600 1/10 31600 26600 21600
16600
11600
6600
6600
1600
1600
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Page 3 / January 11, 2023 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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