Dow Jones Industrial Average 1886-2004

The Monthly Effect

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1886-2004

Month Total Observations

Jan Febr Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 119 118 118 118 118 118 118 117 116 116 116 115

Up Month % of Total

77

58

70

67

61

56

71

76

49

64

69

81

64.7% 49.2% 59.3% 56.8% 51.7% 47.5% 60.2% 65.0% 42.2% 55.2% 59.5% 70.4%

Number of times market up for the year when month was up

60

43

48

48

45

41

50

54

32

43

52

53

Number of times market was up 11 months later

54

39

42

43

42

38

44

48

31

39

46

48

Probability of being up for year if month was up

77.9% 74.1% 68.6% 71.6% 73.8% 73.2% 70.4% 71.1% 65.3% 67.2% 75.4% 65.4%

Probability of being up 11 months later if month was up

70.1%

67.2%

60.0%

64.2%

68.9%

67.9%

62.0%

63.2%

63.3%

60.9%

66.7%

59.3%

Down Month % of Total

Number of times market down for the year when month was down

Number of times market was down 11 months later

Probability of being down for year if month was down

Probability of being down 11 months later if month was down

42

60

48

51

57

62

47

41

67

52

47

34

35.3% 50.8% 40.7% 43.2% 48.3% 52.5% 39.8% 35.0% 57.8% 44.8% 40.5% 29.6%

26

25

19

23

29

30

23

21

27

24

21

17

21

21

16

21

23

25

19

16

24

16

21

15

61.9% 41.7% 39.6% 45.1% 50.9% 48.4% 48.9% 51.2% 40.3% 46.2% 44.7% 50.0%

50.0% 35.0% 33.3% 41.2% 40.4% 40.3% 40.4% 39.0% 35.8% 30.8% 44.7% 44.1%

The Monthly Effect for January

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1886-2004

Sorted by Year

Change from

January Change

end of

Year Change for Year January

1886 -3.95% 4.78%

9.09%

1887 -3.85% -8.42%

-4.75%

1888 0.19% 4.80%

4.60%

1889 0.56% 5.52%

4.93%

1890 1.79% -10.58%

-12.15%

1891 3.26% 11.11%

7.61%

1892 -0.62% -3.35%

-2.75%

1893 1.95% -17.98%

-19.55%

1894 4.90% -0.50%

-5.15%

1895 -1.00% 1.68%

2.71%

1896 2.92% 4.07%

1.13%

1897 5.23% 22.17%

16.10%

1898 1.22% 22.46%

20.99%

1899 6.34% 9.20%

2.69%

1900 0.06% 7.00%

6.94%

1901 -5.52% -8.71%

-3.37%

1902 0.61% -0.40%

-1.01%

1903 1.38% -23.61%

-24.65%

1904 -0.42% 41.72%

42.31%

1905 2.47% 38.20%

34.87%

1906 4.67% -1.92%

-6.29%

1907 -2.81% -37.73%

-35.93%

1908 6.71% 46.63%

37.40%

1909 -2.39% 14.97%

17.79%

1910 -7.21% -17.86%

-11.48%

1911 4.40% 0.40%

-3.83%

1912 -1.84% 7.57%

9.58%

1913 -4.72% -10.35%

-5.90%

1914 5.16% -5.42%

-10.07%

1915 4.73% 81.66%

73.46%

1916 -8.64% -4.19%

4.88%

1917 0.45% -21.71%

-22.06%

1918 7.29% 10.51%

3.01%

1919 -1.93% 30.45%

33.02%

1920 -3.18% -32.90%

-30.70%

1921 5.81% 12.72%

6.53%

1922 0.25% 21.74%

21.44%

1923 -1.32% -3.25%

-1.96%

1924 5.38% 26.16%

19.72%

1925 2.25% 30.00%

27.14%

1926 0.50% 0.34%

-0.15%

1927 -0.50% 28.75%

29.40%

1928 -1.88% 48.22%

51.07%

1929 5.84% -17.17%

-21.74%

1930 7.51% -33.77%

-38.39%

Sorted by Performance

Change from

January Change

end of

Year Change for Year January

1976 14.41% 17.86%

3.01%

1975 14.19% 38.32%

21.13%

1987 13.82% 2.26%

-10.16%

1967 8.17% 15.20%

6.50%

1989 8.01% 26.96%

17.54%

1930 7.51% -33.77%

-38.39%

1934 7.33% 4.14%

-2.97%

1918 7.29% 10.51%

3.01%

1908 6.71% 46.63%

37.40%

1899 6.34% 9.20%

2.69%

1985 6.21% 27.66%

20.20%

1946 6.10% -8.14%

-13.42%

1994 5.97% 2.14%

-3.62%

1929 5.84% -17.17%

-21.74%

1921 5.81% 12.72%

6.53%

1951 5.70% 14.37%

8.20%

1997 5.66% 22.64%

16.07%

1996 5.44% 26.01%

19.52%

1924 5.38% 26.16%

19.72%

1961 5.25% 18.71%

12.80%

1897 5.23% 22.17%

16.10%

1943 5.18% 13.81%

8.21%

1914 5.16% -5.42%

-10.07%

1894 4.90% -0.50%

-5.15%

1915 4.73% 81.66%

73.46%

1963 4.72% 17.00%

11.73%

1906 4.67% -1.92%

-6.29%

1980 4.42% 14.93%

10.06%

1911 4.40% 0.40%

-3.83%

1979 4.25% 4.19%

-0.06%

1954 4.09% 43.96%

38.31%

1991 3.90% 20.32%

15.80%

1936 3.72% 24.82%

20.34%

1971 3.53% 6.11%

2.50%

1958 3.29% 33.96%

29.69%

1965 3.29% 10.88%

7.35%

1891 3.26% 11.11%

7.61%

1937 3.25% -32.82%

-34.94%

1964 2.93% 14.57%

11.31%

1896 2.92% 4.07%

1.13%

1983 2.79% 20.27%

17.01%

1905 2.47% 38.20%

34.87%

1925 2.25% 30.00%

27.14%

1893 1.95% -17.98%

-19.55%

1999 1.93% 25.22%

22.85%

The Monthly Effect for January

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1886-2004

Change from

January Change

end of

Year Change for Year January

1931 1.80% -52.67%

-53.51%

1932 -2.20% -23.07%

-21.34%

1933 1.62% 66.69%

64.04%

1934 7.33% 4.14% 1935 -2.26% 38.53%

-2.97% 41.73%

1936 3.72% 24.82%

20.34%

1937 3.25% -32.82%

-34.94%

1938 0.84% 28.06%

26.99%

1939 -7.11% -2.92%

4.51%

1940 -3.27% -12.72%

-9.77%

1941 -5.34% -15.38%

-10.61%

1942 -1.67% 7.61%

9.43%

1943 5.18% 13.81%

8.21%

1944 1.11% 12.09%

10.86%

1945 1946

0.89% 26.65% 6.10% -8.14%

25.54% -13.42%

1947 1.83% 2.23%

0.40%

1948 -3.37% -2.13%

1.29%

1949 1.03% 12.88%

11.73%

1950 0.83% 17.63%

16.66%

1951 5.70% 14.37%

8.20%

1952 0.54% 8.42%

7.84%

1953 -0.73% -3.77%

-3.06%

1954 4.09% 43.96%

38.31%

1955 1.10% 20.77%

19.46%

1956 -3.62% 2.27% 1957 -4.07% -12.77%

6.10% -9.07%

1958 3.29% 33.96%

29.69%

1959 1.77% 16.40%

14.38%

1960 -8.35% -9.34%

-1.08%

1961 5.25% 18.71%

12.80%

1962 -4.26% -10.81%

-6.84%

1963 4.72% 17.00%

11.73%

1964 2.93% 14.57%

11.31%

1965 3.29% 10.88%

7.35%

1966 1.47% -18.94%

-20.11%

1967 8.17% 15.20% 1968 -5.48% 4.27%

6.50% 10.32%

1969 0.24% -15.19%

-15.40%

1970 -7.03% 4.82%

12.75%

1971 3.53% 6.11%

2.50%

1972 1.34% 14.58%

13.06%

1973 -2.06% -16.58%

-14.83%

1974 0.55% -27.57%

-27.97%

1975 14.19% 38.32%

21.13%

1976 14.41% 17.86%

3.01%

Change from

January Change

end of

Year Change for Year January

1947 1.83% 2.23%

0.40%

1931 1.80% -52.67%

-53.51%

1890 1.79% -10.58%

-12.15%

1959 1992

1.77% 16.40% 1.72% 4.17%

14.38% 2.41%

1933 1.62% 66.69%

64.04%

1986 1.57% 22.58%

20.69%

1966 1.47% -18.94%

-20.11%

1903 1.38% -23.61%

-24.65%

1972 1.34% 14.58%

13.06%

1898 1.22% 22.46%

20.99%

1944 1.11% 12.09%

10.86%

1955 1.10% 20.77%

19.46%

1949 1.03% 12.88%

11.73%

1988 2001

1.00% 11.85% 0.93% -7.10%

10.74% -7.95%

1945 0.89% 26.65%

25.54%

1938 0.84% 28.06%

26.99%

1950 0.83% 17.63%

16.66%

1902 0.61% -0.40%

-1.01%

1889 0.56% 5.52%

4.93%

1974 0.55% -27.57%

-27.97%

1952 0.54% 8.42%

7.84%

1926 0.50% 0.34%

-0.15%

1917 0.45% -21.71%

-22.06%

2004 1993

0.33% 3.15% 0.27% 13.72%

2.81% 13.42%

1922 0.25% 21.74%

21.44%

1995 0.25% 33.45%

33.12%

1969 0.24% -15.19%

-15.40%

1888 0.19% 4.80%

4.60%

1900 0.06% 7.00%

6.94%

1998 -0.02% 16.10%

16.13%

1904 -0.42% 41.72%

42.31%

1982 -0.45% 19.60%

20.14%

1927 -0.50% 28.75%

29.40%

1892 -0.62% -3.35% 1953 -0.73% -3.77%

-2.75% -3.06%

1895 -1.00% 1.68%

2.71%

2002 -1.01% -16.76%

-15.91%

1923 -1.32% -3.25%

-1.96%

1942 -1.67% 7.61%

9.43%

1981 -1.73% -9.23%

-7.63%

1912 -1.84% 7.57%

9.58%

1928 -1.88% 48.22%

51.07%

1919 -1.93% 30.45%

33.02%

The Monthly Effect for January

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1886-2004

Change from

January Change

end of

Year Change for Year January

1977 -5.00% -17.27%

-12.91%

1978 -7.37% -3.15%

4.56%

1979 4.25% 4.19%

-0.06%

1980 4.42% 14.93% 1981 -1.73% -9.23%

10.06% -7.63%

1982 -0.45% 19.60%

20.14%

1983 2.79% 20.27%

17.01%

1984 -3.02% -3.74%

-0.74%

1985 6.21% 27.66%

20.20%

1986 1.57% 22.58%

20.69%

1987 13.82% 2.26%

-10.16%

1988 1.00% 11.85%

10.74%

1989 8.01% 26.96%

17.54%

1990 -5.91% -4.34%

1.66%

1991 1992

3.90% 20.32% 1.72% 4.17%

15.80% 2.41%

1993 0.27% 13.72%

13.42%

1994 5.97% 2.14%

-3.62%

1995 0.25% 33.45%

33.12%

1996 5.44% 26.01%

19.52%

1997 5.66% 22.64%

16.07%

1998 -0.02% 16.10%

16.13%

1999 1.93% 25.22%

22.85%

2000 -4.84% -6.18%

-1.40%

2001 0.93% -7.10%

-7.95%

2002 -1.01% -16.76% 2003 -3.45% 25.32%

-15.91% 29.80%

2004 0.33% 3.15%

2.81%

Year

1973 1932 1935 1909 1907 1984 1920 1940 1948 2003 1956 1887 1886 1957 1962 1913 2000 1977 1941 1968 1901 1990 1970 1939 1910 1978 1960 1916

January Change

-2.06% -2.20% -2.26% -2.39% -2.81% -3.02% -3.18% -3.27% -3.37% -3.45% -3.62% -3.85% -3.95% -4.07% -4.26% -4.72% -4.84% -5.00% -5.34% -5.48% -5.52% -5.91% -7.03% -7.11% -7.21% -7.37% -8.35% -8.64%

Change for Year

-16.58% -23.07% 38.53% 14.97% -37.73%

-3.74% -32.90% -12.72%

-2.13% 25.32%

2.27% -8.42% 4.78% -12.77% -10.81% -10.35% -6.18% -17.27% -15.38% 4.27% -8.71% -4.34% 4.82% -2.92% -17.86% -3.15% -9.34% -4.19%

Change from end of January

-14.83% -21.34% 41.73% 17.79% -35.93%

-0.74% -30.70%

-9.77% 1.29% 29.80% 6.10% -4.75% 9.09% -9.07% -6.84% -5.90% -1.40% -12.91% -10.61% 10.32% -3.37% 1.66% 12.75% 4.51% -11.48% 4.56% -1.08% 4.88%

The Monthly Effect for February

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1886-2004

Sorted by Year

Change from

February Change

end of

Year Change for Year February

1886 1.30% 4.89%

3.54%

1887 2.62% -4.57%

-7.01%

1888 -2.04% 5.19%

7.38%

1889 -0.32% 6.81%

7.16%

1890 -3.00% -9.29%

-6.49%

1891 1.42% 6.94%

5.44%

1892 4.00% -0.85%

-4.66%

1893 -4.26% -15.61%

-11.85%

1894 -0.61% -6.10%

-5.52%

1895 -2.99% 5.70%

8.96%

1896 1.60% 6.42%

4.74%

1897 -1.99% 17.51%

19.90%

1898 -7.70% 28.66%

39.38%

1899 3.78% 2.76%

-0.98%

1900 -3.28% 1.03%

4.46%

1901 0.29% -2.78%

-3.06%

1902 -0.21% 0.36%

0.57%

1903 1.55% -24.96%

-26.11%

1904 -2.82% 45.83%

50.06%

1905 5.36% 41.17%

33.99%

1906 -6.70% -8.92%

-2.38%

1907 -1.27% -31.63%

-30.76%

1908 -3.44% 34.12%

38.90%

1909 -2.66% 9.30%

12.29%

1910 -0.62% -7.59%

-7.01%

1911 0.10% -5.59%

-5.68%

1912 1.52% 4.41%

2.85%

1913 -4.06% -1.04%

3.14%

1914 -0.71% -5.82%

-5.14%

1915 -3.46% 58.47%

64.15%

1916 0.50% 5.35%

4.83%

1917 -4.06% -16.38%

-12.84%

1918 0.74% 1.02%

0.27%

1919 5.21% 28.79%

22.41%

1920 -12.05% -26.67%

-16.62%

1921 -1.51% 6.79%

8.43%

1922 5.12% 19.84%

14.01%

1923 6.64% 3.32%

-3.12%

1924 -3.42% 22.41%

26.74%

1925 -0.41% 27.77%

28.30%

1926 -1.90% -0.65%

1.27%

1927 3.55% 26.97%

22.62%

1928 -1.92% 59.88%

63.01%

1929 -0.03% -15.86%

-15.84%

1930 1.49% -37.28%

-38.20%

Sorted by Performance

Change from

February Change

end of

Year Change for Year February

1931 13.20% -54.53%

-59.83%

1986 8.79% 37.37%

26.27%

1998 8.08% 18.37%

9.51%

1932 6.89% -20.07%

-25.22%

1923 6.64% 3.32%

-3.12%

1938 6.38% 17.96%

10.89%

1988 5.79% 19.61%

13.07%

1905 5.36% 41.17%

33.99%

1991 5.33% 17.80%

11.84%

1919 5.21% 28.79%

22.41%

1922 5.12% 19.84%

14.01%

1975 5.02% 38.60%

31.96%

1970 4.51% 16.72%

11.69%

1945 4.38% 33.19%

27.60%

1995 4.35% 40.36%

34.51%

1892 4.00% -0.85%

-4.66%

1899 3.78% 2.76%

-0.98%

1943 3.61% 9.41%

5.60%

1927 3.55% 26.97%

22.62%

1983 3.43% 13.47%

9.70%

1987 3.06% -9.26%

-11.95%

1981 2.88% -8.04%

-10.62%

1972 2.88% 10.74%

7.64%

1956 2.74% 1.79%

-0.93%

1887 2.62% -4.57%

-7.01%

1939 2.46% 1.09%

-1.34%

1961 2.14% 7.99%

5.73%

1964 1.88% 14.96%

12.84%

2002 1.88% -18.81%

-20.31%

1993 1.84% 20.19%

18.02%

1936 1.78% 24.25%

22.08%

1996 1.67% 26.28%

24.20%

1959 1.61% 4.83%

3.17%

1896 1.60% 6.42%

4.74%

1903 1.55% -24.96%

-26.11%

1912 1.52% 4.41%

2.85%

1930 1.49% -37.28%

-38.20%

1891 1.42% 6.94%

5.44%

1990 1.42% 5.63%

4.15%

1992 1.37% 2.69%

1.30%

1886 1.30% 4.89%

3.54%

1951 1.29% 8.79%

7.40%

1960 1.20% 4.11%

2.87%

1971 1.19% 3.88%

2.66%

1962 1.15% -2.45%

-3.56%

 ................
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