Before the Bell
Before the Bell
Morning Market Brief
January 17, 2020
FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE THE DISCLOSURE PAGES AT THE END OF THIS DOCUMENT
MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY: Anthony M. Saglimbene, Global Market Strategist
? Quick Take: U.S. futures are pointing to another higher open, as multiple indexes continue to hit new highs; European markets are trading in the green; Asia ended higher overnight; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil trading at $58.81; 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up to 1.83%.
? U.S. Stocks At Record Highs -- But A Few Companies Cast A Very Large Shadow: As we noted on Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average `closed' above the 29,000 level for the first time in history on Wednesday. It did it again on Thursday, climbing another +0.9%. It took just 40 days for the Dow to rise 1,000 points. The move from 25,000 to 26,000 took only 8 days, while the move from 26,000 to 27,000 took 372 days. While the Dow's percentage move from 28K to 29K only equates to roughly +3.5%, we believe the speed and strength of recent market gains are impressive nonetheless. As the FactSet chart below shows, the Dow has traversed an impressive road of gains over recent years and considering several stumbling blocks along the way.
The Dow breaches 29,000
DJ 30 Industrials Average - Price
10964.90 59.81%
29297.64
The Dow took just seven trading days to move from 25,000 to 26,000, its fastest 1,000 point gain in more than a century of history. Since early 2018, the Industrials have added another 3,000 points. The Dow has soared more than 10,000 points
or roughly +60% since President Trump's 2016 election victory.
18332.74
1/17 4/17 7/17 10/17 1/18 4/18 7/18 10/18 1/19 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/20
30,000
2299,209070 .64
28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000
20,000
19,000
18,000
Notations:
? For further information on any of the topics mentioned, please contact your Financial Advisor.
? Unless specifically stated otherwise, comments contained in this document should not be construed as an investment opinion or
recommendation of any securities mentioned. Charts depicted are from FactSet unless otherwise noted.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
? 2020 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Page 1 of 9
Before The Bell
January 17, 2020
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
? In addition to the Dow's impressive run as of late, the S&P 500 Index, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 Index, and numerous sector indexes all sit at fresh highs today. Ten of eleven S&P 500 sectors have made new 52-week highs over the last thirty days. Only Energy has been left out in the cold and remains roughly 11% off its April 2019 high.
? With that said, the S&P 500 Index has grown top-heavy over recent years. In fact, at no other point since the year 2000 has the U.S. stock benchmark been so heavily weighted to just a few stocks, according to the chart below (sourced from Bespoke Investment Group data). Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft (MFST), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Facebook (FB) currently represent over 17% of the S&P 500's market cap. The only other year the S&P 500 approached such a lofty level of dominance across a handful of companies was in 2000.
? Twenty years ago, Microsoft (MFST), General Electric (GE), Cisco (CSCO), Walmart (WMT), and Intel (INTC) dominated the S&P 500. Only Microsoft remains in a top-five spot today, as Walmart and Intel have dropped into the top-twenty, CSCO stands at the 27th spot, and GE has fallen all the way down to the 66th largest stock in the S&P 500 by market-cap weight.
Five Largest S&P 500 Stocks as a % of Total S&P 500
Market Cap
20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0
8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
17.0
16.617.3
14.013.113.313.011.911.712.011.811.412.9
13.614.714.413.613.112.412.412.714.011.310.811.911.711.011.111.611.813.7
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
? Although the top spots in broad-based benchmarks evolve, and to a degree, reflect the corporate winners in a highly dynamic and changing economy -- we believe future equity gains in the S&P 500 are more contingent on the prospects of just a handful of companies.
? In our view, these five corporate `winners' may need to keep winning to push the S&P 500 higher from here. However, if participation can continue to broaden out into other cyclical areas such as Financials, Industrials, and Materials this year, then over time, the top-five exposure may decline. And particularly, without a more meaningful price disruption in the overall Index. Investors should continue to monitor their portfolio exposures and recognize the large stock, sector, and region drivers to performance.
? Asia-Pacific: Asian equities finished higher on Friday. Q4 China GDP held steady at +6.0% y/y, matching expectations, and helped push full-year 2019 GDP to +6.1%. Although the growth data was in line with what most expected, China's GDP still grew at its slowest pace in nearly three decades. For comparison, in 2018, China's GDP grew at +6.6%.
? While full-year GDP was within the government's target range of +6.0% to +6.5%, the current consensus sees growth slowing to +5.9% in 2020.
? In a batch of related China data, industrial production beat estimates in December, while fixed-asset investment and retail sales also surprised to the upside.
? Europe: Markets across the region are trading in the green at mid-day. In a recent Reuters poll, the majority of economists believe growth has bottomed in the Eurozone but do not see a material uplift either. Survey respondents
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
? 2020 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Page 2 of 9
Before The Bell
January 17, 2020
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
appear a little more upbeat about the economic outlook for Europe as well as trade sentiment. Importantly, any uplift in European growth would likely need to come from the industrial side of the economy and depend on how lasting the U.S./China trade truce is this year. Economists see Eurozone growth of +1.0% in 2020, and inflation below the ECB's 2.0% target
? U.S.: Equity futures are pointing to a positive open this morning. U.S. stocks are set to close another strong week of gains, led by Utilities, Real Estate, and Information Technology. At the start of the year and halfway through January, Tech, Communication Services, and Industrials have all added more than +3.0% to their strong 2019 performance. Only Energy and Materials are in the red for the year so far.
? Roughly 8% of the S&P 500 Index has reported Q4'19 earnings, with 20% of Financial reports now complete. Blended Q4'19 S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) is down 2.4% y/y on sales growth of +2.5%. Roughly 40 S&P 500 companies are on tap to report results next week.
? Following the completion of the `phase one' U.S./China trade agreement this week, most economists do not believe the U.S. will see a material bump in growth from the deal, per Bloomberg. Some forecasts, including our own, call for full-year GDP growth in 2020 to come in below the +2.5% pace U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin recently suggested. The Wall Street Journal noted that roughly two-thirds of surveyed economists believe the trade deal could add a small tailwind to U.S. GDP this year, but still forecast growth a tick below +2.0%.
? On Thursday, Mr. Mnuchin said the U.S. Treasury would begin issuing 20-year bonds in the first half of the year, per FactSet. In October, the U.S. Treasury indicated it was considering offering several new debt issuing options, including ultra-long bonds maturing in 50 to 100 years. Given the expanding budget deficits, we believe the U.S. Treasury is looking for ways to attract a larger pool of investors. As Bloomberg highlighted, 30-year bonds with roughly 20 years left to maturity currently yield approximately 2.2% and would offer a sizable premium over comparable foreign debt.
WORLD CAPITAL MARKETS
1/17/2020
As of: 8:30 AM ET
Americas
% chg. % YTD
Value Europe (Intra-day)
% chg. %YTD
Value
S&P 500
0.84% 2.74% 3,316.8 DJSTOXX 50 (Europe)
0.81% 1.71% 3,804.6
Dow Jones
0.92% 2.74% 29,297.6 FTSE 100 (U.K.)
0.95% 1.90% 7,681.9
NASDAQ Composite
1.06% 4.31% 9,357.1 DAX Index (Germany)
0.61% 1.98% 13,511.1
Russell 2000
1.36% 2.24% 1,705.2 CAC 40 (France)
0.98% 2.16% 6,098.4
Brazil Bovespa
0.72% 1.64% 117,541 FTSE MIB (Italy)
0.80% 2.66% 24,131.6
S&P/TSX Comp. (Canada) 0.40% 2.59% 17,484.8 IBEX 35 (Spain)
1.18% 1.73% 9,685.7
Mexico IPC
1.91% 4.06% 45,303.1 MOEX Index (Russia)
1.10% 5.07% 3,191.9
Note: International market returns shown on a local currency basis. Equity index data is total return, inclusive of dividends.
Global
% chg. % YTD
MSCI All-Country World Idx 0.55% 2.12%
Value Developed International 576.9 MSCI EAFE
% chg. %YTD
Value
0.11% 0.61% 2,048.7
S&P 500 Sectors Communication Services Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Materials Real Estate Technology Utilities
% chg. 0.66% 0.90% 0.31% 0.12% 0.77% 0.52% 1.01% 0.58% 0.79% 1.40% 0.61%
% YTD 4.54% 1.69% 1.26% -1.02% 0.44% 2.52% 3.55% -0.96% 2.13% 5.17% 2.49%
Value 189.4 1,002.9 654.9 451.7 513.1 1,217.0 711.8 382.1 245.4 1,693.7 336.6
Equity Income Indices JPM Alerian MLP Index FTSE NAREIT Comp. TR DJ US Select Dividend DJ Global Select Dividend S&P Div. Aristocrats
Bond Indices Barclays US Agg. Bond Barclays HY Bond
% chg. 0.41% 0.81% 0.90% 0.29% 0.72%
% YTD 4.48% 2.01% 1.18% 0.63% 0.84%
Value 228.0 21,780.9 2,317.2 237.5 3,093.3
% chg. -0.06% 0.06%
% YTD 0.60% 0.71%
Value 2,238.3 2,198.3
Asia/Pacific (Last Night) Nikkei 225 (Japan) Hang Seng (Hong Kong) Korea Kospi 100 Singapore STI Shanghai Comp. (China) Bombay Sensex (India) S&P/ASX 200 (Australia)
Emerging International MSCI Emerging Mkts
Commodities Futures & Spot (Intra-day) CRB Raw Industrials NYMEX WTI Crude (p/bbl.) ICE Brent Crude (p/bbl.) NYMEX Nat Gas (mmBtu) Spot Gold (troy oz.) Spot Silver (troy oz.) LME Copper (per ton) LME Aluminum (per ton) CBOT Corn (cents p/bushel) CBOT Wheat (cents p/bushel)
% chg. 0.45% 0.60% 0.11% 0.09% 0.05% 0.03% 0.32%
%YTD 1.63% 3.07% 2.41% 1.81% 0.83% 1.68% 5.69%
Value 24,041.3 29,056.4
2,250.6 3,281.0 3,075.5 41,945.4 7,064.1
% chg. %YTD
Value
0.23% 2.36% 1,140.6
% chg. 0.24% 0.60% 0.57% -2.26% 0.25% 0.70% -0.02% 1.23% 0.67% 0.27%
% YTD 3.49% -3.59% -1.53% -7.26% 2.58% 1.21% 1.66% 0.86% -2.51% 1.43%
Value 467.6
58.9 65.0
2.0 1,556.4
18.1 6,251.0 1,796.5
378.0 566.8
Foreign Exchange (Intra-day) % chg. % YTD
Value
Euro (/$)
-0.32% -1.00%
1.11 Japanese Yen ($/?)
British Pound (?/$)
-0.24% -1.58%
1.30 Australian Dollar (A$/$)
Data/Price Source: Bloomberg. Equity Index data is total return, inclusive of dividends, where applicable.
% chg. % YTD -0.03% -1.43% -0.15% -1.89%
Value 110.19
0.69
Canadian Dollar ($/C$) Swiss Franc ($/CHF)
% chg. -0.06% -0.36%
% YTD -0.46% -0.17%
Value 1.31 0.97
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
? 2020 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Page 3 of 9
Before The Bell
January 17, 2020
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee U.S. Equity Sector - Tactical View
Sector
S&P 500 Index Weight
1) Communication Services 10.5%
2) Consumer Discretionary 9.7%
3) Consumer Staples
7.2%
4) Energy
4.3%
5) Financials
13.1%
GAAC Tactical View Underweight
Overweight Equalweight Equalweight Equalweight
GAAC Tactical Overlay
GAAC Recommended
Weight
- 2.0%
8.5%
+2.0%
11.7%
-
7.2%
-
4.3%
-
13.1%
Sector 6) Health Care 7) Industrials 8) Information Technology 9) Materials 10) Real Estate 11) Utilities
S&P 500 Index Weight 14.2% 9.1% 23.1% 2.6% 2.9% 3.3%
GAAC Tactical View Equalweight Equalweight Equalweight Equalweight
Overweight Underweight
GAAC
GAAC
Tactical Recommended
Overlay
Weight
-
14.2%
-
9.1%
-
23.1%
-
2.6%
+1.0%
3.9%
- 1.0%
2.3%
Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee Global Equity Region - Tactical View
Region 1) United States 2) Canada 3) United Kingdom 4) Europe ex U.K.
MSCI All-Country World Index Weight 55.6% 3.0% 4.8% 14.3%
GAAC Tactical View
Overweight Equalweight Equalweight Equalweight
GAAC Tactical Overlay
GAAC Recommended
Weight
+3.3%
58.9%
-
3.0%
-
4.8%
-
14.3%
Region 5) Latin America 6) Asia-Pacific ex Japan 7) Japan 8) Middle East / Africa
MSCI All-Country World Index Weight 1.4% 12.4% 7.2% 1.3%
GAAC Tactical View Equalweight Equalweight Underweight Underweight
GAAC Tactical Overlay
GAAC Recommended
Weight
-
1.4%
-
12.4%
- 2.0%
5.2%
- 1.3%
-
BY THE NUMBERS: ECONOMIC ACTUALS AND FORECAST:
Current Projections:
Quarterly
Real GDP (YOY) Unemployment Rate CPI (YoY) Core PCE (YoY)
Actual 2015 2.9% 5.0% 0.1% 1.3%
Actual 2016 1.6% 4.7% 1.3% 1.7%
Actual 2017 2.4% 4.1% 2.1% 1.6%
Actual 2018 2.9% 3.9% 2.4% 1.9%
Est. 2019 2.3% 3.5% 1.8% 1.7%
Est. 2020 2.1% 3.5% 2.1% 1.9%
Actual Actual Actual Est. Q1-2019 Q2-2019 Q3-2019 Q4-2019
3.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6%
Est. Q1-2020
1.5% 3.5% 2.3% 1.9%
Sources: Historical data via FactSet. Estimates (Est.) via American Enterprise Investment Services, Inc.
YoY = Year-over-year, Unemployment numbers are period ending. GDP: Gross Domestic Product; CPI: Consumer Price Index
PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. Core excludes food and energy
Last Updated: Jan u ary 13, 2020
ECONOMIC NEWS OUT TODAY:
Economic Releases for Friday, January 17, 2020. All times Eastern. Consensus estimates via Bloomberg.
Time 8:30 AM 8:30 AM 8:30 AM 8:30 AM 9:15 AM 9:15 AM 9:15 AM 10:00 AM 10:00 AM
Period DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC Jan P NOV
Release Housing Starts (annualized) Housing Starts (MoM) Building Permits (annualized) Building Permits (MoM) Industrial Production (MoM) Capacity Utilization Manufacturing Output (MoM) U. of M. Consumer Sentiment Job Openings (JOLTs Report)
Consensus Est. 1380k +1.1% 1460k -1.5% -0.1% 77.0% -0.1% 99.3 7.26M
Actual 1608k +16.9% 1416k -3.9%
Prior 1365k +3.2% 1482k +1.4% +1.1% 77.3% +1.1% 99.3 7.27M
Revised to 1375k +2.6% 1474k +0.9%
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
? 2020 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Page 4 of 9
Before The Bell
January 17, 2020
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Economic Perspective: Russell T. Price, CFA ? Chief Economist
? No matter which way you slice it, home building activity has been improving over recent months in reflection of very low mortgage rates, a general shortage of housing in many markets around the country, strong consumer confidence, and very supportive consumer income /debt metrics.
? However, today's exceptionally strong report on December new home building should be taken with a large grain of salt. The numbers were very likely boosted by a combination of very accommodating weather for a month that typically sees the second strongest seasonal adjustment of any month of the year. Simply put, average temperatures in December 2019 were warmer than normal over much of the country, and there were generally fewer weather events such as snow, ice, or heavy rain.
? Single-family home construction experienced an exceptional 12.5% month-over-month gain, largely due to the factors cited above, in our opinion. But new construction of multi-family units, which can be very volatile as the start of one large apartment complex can inflate the numbers notably, was up nearly 30% versus November levels. On a NONSEASONALLY adjusted basis, new single-family starts were flat and multi-family starts were up 16%.
? The influence of weather and seasonal adjustment factors aside, the positive trends in the sector supports the recent strength in Homebuilder Sentiment (which is generally at its highest levels in more than 20 years). Earlier this week the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) reported that their Sentiment Index for the month of January camein at 75, just a point off the reading of 76 as recorded in December (its highest level since June 1999).
? Builders have been reporting strong foot-traffic of potential buyers and their expectations of sales over the next 6 months has seen a boost over recent months as well.
FIXED INCOME NEWS & VIEWS: Brian M. Erickson, CFA, Fixed Income Research & Strategy
Please see our Morning Research Notes report for today's fixed income commentary. Fixed Income News & Views will return to this space on Monday.
This space intentionally left blank.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
? 2020 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Page 5 of 9
Before The Bell
January 17, 2020
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Ameriprise Investment Research Group
Ameriprise Financial 1441 West Long Lake Road, Suite 250, Troy, MI 48098 investment.research.group@ For additional information or to locate your nearest branch office, visit
RESEARCH & DUE DILIGENCE LEADER Lyle B. Schonberger - Vice President
Business Unit Compliance Liaison (BUCL) Jeff Carlson, CLU, ChFC ? Manager
Investment Research Coordinator Kimberly K. Shores
Sr Administrative Assistant Jillian Willis
STRATEGISTS
CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST David M. Joy ? Vice President
GLOBAL MARKET STRATEGIST Anthony M. Saglimbene ? Vice President
Thomas Crandall, CFA, CMT, CAIA ? Sr Director, Asset Allocation
Gaurav Sawhney ? Research Analyst
Amit Tiwari ? Sr Research Associate
EQUITY RESEARCH
CHIEF ECONOMIST Russell T. Price, CFA ? Vice President
Equity Research Director Justin H. Burgin ? Vice President
Consumer Goods and Services Patrick S. Diedrickson, CFA ? Director
Energy/Utilities William Foley, ASIP ? Director
Financial Services/REITs Lori Wilking-Przekop ? Sr Director
Health Care Daniel Garofalo ? Director
Industrials/Materials Frederick M. Schultz ? Director
Technology/Telecommunication Curtis R. Trimble ? Director
Quantitative Strategies/International Andrew R. Heaney, CFA ? Director
MANAGER RESEARCH
Michael V. Jastrow, CFA ? Vice President
Jeffrey R. Lindell, CFA ? Director ? ETFs & CEFs
Mark Phelps, CFA ? Director ? MultiAsset Solutions
Equities Christine A. Pederson, CAIA, CIMA ? Sr Director ? Growth Equity, Infrastructure & REIT
Benjamin L. Becker, CFA ? Director ? International/Global Equity
Alex Zachman, CFA ? Analyst ? Core Equity
Cynthia Tupy, CFA ? Director ? Value and Equity Income Equity
FIXED INCOME RESEARCH & STRATEGY Fixed Income Research Brian M. Erickson, CFA ? Vice President
High Yield and Investment Grade Credit Jon Kyle Cartwright ? Sr Director Stephen Tufo ? Director
INVESTMENT DUE DILIGENCE Justin E. Bell, CFA ? Vice President Kurt J. Merkle, CFA, CFP?, CAIA ? Sr. Director Kay S. Nachampassak ? Director Peter W. LaFontaine ? Sr. Analyst James P. Johnson, CFA, CFP? ? Sr. Analyst David Hauge, CFA ? Analyst Bishnu Dhar ? Sr. Research Analyst Parveen Vedi ? Sr. Research Associate Darakshan Ali ? Research Process Trainee
INNOVATION AND DEVELOPMENT Allen Rodrigues ? Vice President Nidhi Khandelwal ? Director Dan Burns ? Sr. Manager Matt Morgan ? Sr. Manager Natasha Wayland ? Sr. Manager
Fixed Income & Alternatives Jay C. Untiedt, CFA, CAIA ? Sr Director ? Alternatives
Steven T. Pope, CFA, CFP? ? Director ? Non-Core Fixed Income
Douglas D. Noah, CFA ? Analyst ? Core Taxable & Tax-Exempt Fixed Income
Blake Hockert ? Associate ? Reporting & Analytics
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
? 2020 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Page 6 of 9
Before The Bell
January 17, 2020
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The content in this report is authored by American Enterprise Investment Services Inc. ("AEIS") and distributed by Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. ("AFSI") to financial advisors and clients of AFSI. AEIS and AFSI are affiliates and subsidiaries of Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Both AEIS and AFSI are member firms registered with FINRA and are subject to the objectivity safeguards and disclosure requirements relating to research analysts and the publication and distribution of research reports. The "Important Disclosures" below relate to the AEIS research analyst(s) that prepared this publication. The "Disclosures of Possible Conflicts of Interest" section, where applicable, relates to the conflicts of interest of each of AEIS and AFSI, their affiliates and their research analysts, as applicable, with respect to the subject companies mentioned in the report.
Each of AEIS and AFSI have implemented policies and procedures reasonably designed to ensure that its employees involved in the preparation, content and distribution of research reports, including dually registered employees, do not influence the objectivity or timing of the publication of research report content. All research policies, coverage decisions, compensation, hiring and other personnel decisions with respect to research analysts are made by AEIS, which is operationally independent of AFSI.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES As of December 31, 2019 The views expressed regarding the company(ies) and sector(s) featured in this publication reflect the personal views of the research analyst(s) authoring the publication. Further, no part of research analyst compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this publication.
A part of a research analyst's compensation may be based upon overall firm revenue and profitability, of which investment banking, sales and trading, and principal trading are components. No part of a research analyst's compensation is based on a specific investment banking transaction, nor is it based on sales, trading, or principal trading. A research analyst may have visited the material operations of one or more of the subject companies mentioned in this research report. No payment was received for the related travel costs.
Additional information and current research disclosures on individual companies mentioned in this research report are available on our website at legal/disclosures in the Additional Ameriprise research disclosures section, or through your Ameriprise financial advisor. You may also submit a written request to Ameriprise Financial, Inc., 1441 West Long Lake Road, Troy MI, 48098. Independent third-party research on individual companies is available to clients at research-market-insights. SEC filings may be viewed at .
Tactical asset class recommendations mentioned in this report reflect The Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee's general view of the financial markets, as of the date of the report, based on then current conditions. Our tactical recommendations may differ materially from what is presented in a customized long-term financial plan or portfolio strategy. You should view our recommendations in conjunction with a broader long-term portfolio strategy. Not all products, services, or asset classes mentioned in this report may be available for sale at Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Please consult with your financial advisor.
Diversification and Asset Allocation do not assure a profit or protect against loss.
RISK FACTORS Dividend and interest payments are not guaranteed. The amount of dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce or eliminate dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific
industry or issuer. Should a company be unable to pay interest on a timely basis a default may occur and interruption or reduction of interest and principal occur.
Investments in a narrowly focused sector may exhibit higher volatility than investments with broader objectives and is subject to market risk and economic risk.
Income Risk: We note that dividends are declared solely at the discretion of the companies' boards of directors. Dividend cuts or eliminations will likely negatively impact underlying company valuations. Published dividend yields are calculated before fees and taxes. Dividends paid by foreign companies to ADR holders may be subject to a withholding tax which could adversely affect the realized dividend yield. In certain circumstances, investors in ADR shares have the option to receive dividends in the form of cash payments, rights shares or ADR shares. Each form of dividend payment will have different tax consequences and therefore generate a different yield. In some instances, ADR holders are eligible to reclaim a portion of the withholding tax.
International investing involves increased risk and volatility due to political and economic instability, currency fluctuations, and differences in financial reporting and accounting standards and oversight. Risks are particularly significant in emerging markets.
Market Risk: Equity markets in general could sustain significant volatility due to several factors. As we have seen recently, both economic and geopolitical issues could have a material impact on this model portfolio and the equity market as a whole.
Quantitative Strategy Risk: Stock selection and portfolio maintenance strategies based on quantitative analytics carry a unique set of risks. Quantitative strategies rely on comprehensive, accurate and thorough historical data. The Ameriprise Investment Research Group utilizes current and historical data provided by third-party data vendors. Material errors in database construction and maintenance could have an adverse effect on quantitative research and the resulting stock selection strategies.
PRODUCT RISK DISCLOSURES Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value.
For additional information on individual ETFs, see available third-party research which provides additional investment highlights. SEC filings may be viewed at
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
? 2020 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Page 7 of 9
Before The Bell
January 17, 2020
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
All fixed income securities are subject to a series of risks which may include, but are not limited to: interest rate risk, call risk, refunding risk, default risk, inflations risk, liquidity risk and event risk. Please review these risks with your financial advisor to better understand how these risks may affect your investment choices. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities. This means you may lose money if you sell a bond prior to maturity as a result of interest rate or other market movement.
Any information relating to the income or capital gains tax treatment of financial instruments or strategies discussed herein is not intended to provide specific tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional.
A real estate investment trust or REIT is a company that owns and operates income-producing real estate. In addition, some REITs participate in the financing of real estate. To qualify as a REIT, a company must: I) invest at least 75% of its total assets in real estate assets, II) generate at least 75% of its gross income from real property or interest, and III) pay at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders in the form of distributions. A company that qualifies as a REIT is permitted to deduct the distributions paid to shareholders from its corporate taxes. Consequently, many REITs target to payout at least 100% of taxable income, resulting in virtually no corporate taxes.
An investment in a REIT is subject to many of the same risks as a direct investment in real estate including, but not limited to: Illiquidity and valuation complexities, redemption restrictions, distribution and diversification limits, tax consequences, fees, defaults by borrowers or tenants, market saturation, balloon payments, refinancing, bankruptcy, decreases in market rates for rents and other economic, political, or regulatory occurrences affecting the real estate industry.
Mortgage Corp. (Freddie Mac) Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB).
Beta: A measure of the risk arising from exposure to general market movements as opposed to company-specific factors. Betas in this report, unless otherwise noted, use the S&P 500 as the market benchmark and result from calculations over historic periods. A beta below 1.0, for example, can suggest the equity has tended to move with lower volatility than the broader market or, due to company-specific factors, has had higher volatility but generally low correlations with the overall market.
Corporate Bonds ? Are debt instruments issued by a private corporation. Non-Investment grade securities, commonly known as "high-yield" or "junk" bonds, are historically subject to greater risk of default, including the loss of principal and interest, than higher-rated bonds, which may result in greater price volatility than experienced with a higher-rated issue.
Mortgage Backed Securities ? Bonds are subject to prepayment risk. Yield and average lives shown consider prepayment assumptions that may not be met. Changes in payments may significantly affect yield and average life. Please contact your financial advisor for information on CMOs and how they react to different market conditions.
Municipal Bonds ? Interest income may be subject to state and/or local income taxes and/or the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Municipal securities subject to AMT assume a "nontaxable" status for yield calculations. Certain municipal bond income may be subject to federal income tax and are identified as "taxable". Gains on sales/redemptions of municipal bonds may be taxed as capital gains. If the bonds are insured, the insurance pertains to the timely payment of principal (at maturity) and interest by the insurer of the underlying securities and not to the price of the bond, which will fluctuate prior to maturity. The guarantees are backed by the claims-paying ability of the listed insurance company.
Ratings are provided by Moody's Investors Services and Standard & Poor's.
Non-Investment grade securities, commonly known as "highyield" or "junk" bonds, are historically subject to greater risk of default, including the loss of principal and interest, than higher-rated bonds, which may result in greater price volatility than experienced with a higher-rated issue.
Securities offered through AFSI may not be suitable for all investors. Consult with your financial advisor for more information regarding the suitability of a particular investment.
For further information on fixed income securities please refer to FINRA's Smart Bond Investing at , MSRB's Electronic Municipal Market Access at emma., or Investing in Bonds at .
Treasury Securities ? There is no guarantee as to the market value of these securities if they are sold prior to maturity or redemption. Price/Book: A financial ratio used to compare a company's market share price, as of a certain date, to its book value per share. Book value relates to the accounting value of assets and liabilities in a company's balance sheet. It is generally not a direct reflection of future earnings prospects or hard to value intangibles, such as brand, that could help generate those earnings.
Price/Earnings: An equity valuation multiple calculated by dividing the market share price, as of a certain date, by earnings per share. Trailing P/E uses the share price divided by the past four-quarters' earnings per share. Forward P/E uses the share price as of a certain date divided by the consensus estimate of the future four-quarters' EPS.
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS Agency ? Agency bonds are issued by Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE), but are NOT direct obligations of the U.S. government. Common GSE's are the Federal Home Loan
Price/Sales: An equity valuation multiple calculated by dividing the market share price, as of a certain date, by the company's sales per share over the most recent year.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
? 2020 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Page 8 of 9
................
................
In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.
To fulfill the demand for quickly locating and searching documents.
It is intelligent file search solution for home and business.
Related searches
- time before the roman empire
- before the roman empire history
- nasdaq ringing the bell schedule
- what was the dow before the coronavirus
- hitler before the holocaust
- life before the neolithic revolution
- life before the 14th amendment
- before the universe nothing
- original 2nd amendment before the constitution
- what came before the big bang
- what existed before the universe began
- what was before the universe