Quarterly Market Perspective - Fidelity Investments
Fourth Quarter 2023
SUMMARY
The following pages provide greater detail into some of the themes discussed in the Quarterly Market Perspective video:
1.
MARKET SUMMARY: Stocks and bonds fell, as persistently elevated inflation stoked concerns about whether the U.S. Federal
Reserve intends to keep interest rates "higher for longer."
2.
BUSINESS CYCLE: The U.S. economy continued to grow but at a slowing pace, as higher interest rates and decreased
willingness of banks to lend may have started to weigh on economic activity.
3.
INVESTMENT STRATEGY: We maintained risk levels within client portfolios below their long-term targets; bouts of volatility have
historically been more common during late-cycle expansions.
4.
DIVERSIFICATION: Bonds offered attractive levels of yield while stock valuations were above their long-term average, suggesting
investors may benefit from owning both asset classes.
5.
STAYING INVESTED: We believe that by staying with their investment plan, investors may be best positioned to achieve their
financial goals.
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS / QUARTERLY MARKET PERSPECTIVE / FOURTH QUARTER 2023
2
1. MARKET SUMMARY
Global stocks and bonds fell as investor concerns rose about interest rates remaining "higher for longer"
? Despite corporate earnings exceeding analyst expectations, U.S. stocks fell, as higher interest rates weighed on valuations.
? International stocks also fell, as tight monetary policies across most major central banks continued to weigh on developed- and emerging-market economies.
? Bond prices fell as interest rates rose, with rates likely driven by investor concerns around persistent inflation.
Global markets took a pause in the third quarter but remain higher for the year
Hypothetical growth of $100,000
$180,000
U.S. Stocks
International Stocks
Bonds
$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
Q3 2023
$153,931
$114,509 $100,514
$80,000
$60,000 9/18
9/19
9/20
9/21
9/22
9/23
This chart illustrates the performance of a hypothetical $100,000 investment made in the indexes noted above. Index returns include reinvestment of capital gains and dividends, if any, but do not reflect any fees or expenses. This chart is not intended to imply any future performance of the investment product.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. All indexes are unmanaged. Please see Important Information for index definitions. Source: Fidelity Investments, as of 09/29/2023. U.S. stocks--Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index; international stocks--MSCI All Country World Ex-US Index (Net MA); bonds--Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index.
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS / QUARTERLY MARKET PERSPECTIVE / FOURTH QUARTER 2023
3
1. MARKET SUMMARY
U.S. stocks are up over 15% since consumer sentiment hit an all-time low in June 2022
? The Consumer Sentiment Index measures attitudes and expectations of consumers toward personal finances, business conditions, and market conditions.
? After hitting an all-time low in June 2022, the index readings have trended higher but are still well below the long-term average.
? However, as is typical with other low points reached in the past, U.S. stock returns rose over 15% since June 2022, indicating that stocks can perform well even when consumer sentiment is low.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (September 1978?September 2023)
120
100
80
60
62.0
51.7
40
67.5 63.9
55.3 55.8
Average
50.0
20
0 9/78
9/83
9/88
9/93
9/98
9/03
9/08
9/13
9/18
9/23
Total Returns
Date of Low Reached
5-Year Cumulative
5-Year Annual
05/31/80
118.0%
16.9%
03/31/82
224.0%
26.5%
10/31/90
121.4%
17.2%
01/31/92
88.1%
13.4%
11/30/08
124.8%
17.6%
08/31/11
95.8%
14.4%
Median 5-Year Return
119.7%
17.1%
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., University of Michigan, 09/29/23. Gray columns represent National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) recession dates.
Five-year total returns (dividends reinvested) of S&P 500 for the five-year periods beginning at the dates shown. S&P 500 average annual total return (dividends reinvested), 12/31/27?09/29/23. It is not
possible to invest directly in an index.
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS / QUARTERLY MARKET PERSPECTIVE / FOURTH QUARTER 2023
4
1. MARKET SUMMARY
Rising interest rates have challenged bond performance but may be providing an opportunity going forward
? Interest rates have risen to their highest levels in over 15 years, with short-term rates remaining slightly above longer-term rates, driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation.
? Currently, the overnight federal funds borrowing rate is higher than the rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which historically has reversed before entering a recession.
? Investing in higher-yielding, longer-term fixed income securities today may reward investors if history repeats itself, and both short- and longer-term interest rates decline.
Higher interest rates across the maturity spectrum support diversification among fixed income investments
U.S. federal funds rate and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, September 29, 1993?October 3, 2023
U.S. Recession
Federal Funds Rate
10 Year UST Yield
9%
8%
7%
6%
5.3%
5%
4.7%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0% 9/93
9/96
9/99
9/02
9/05
9/08
9/11
9/14
9/17
9/20
9/23
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Sources: Bloomberg, U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, U.S. Treasury. Recession and expansion dates defined buy the National Bureau of Economic Research. As of 10/03/23.
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS / QUARTERLY MARKET PERSPECTIVE / FOURTH QUARTER 2023
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