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West Coast PublishingOcean 2014NovemberEdited by Jim HansonResearchersAlex Zendeh, Alyssa Lucas-Bolin, Ben Menzies, Eric Robinson,Greta Stahl, Matt Stannard, William James TaylorThanks for using our Policy, LD, Public Forum, and Extemp Materials.Please don’t share this material with anyone outside of your schoolincluding via print, email, dropbox, google drive, the web, etc. We’re a small non-profit; please help us continue to provide our products.Contact us at jim@ Resolved: The United States federal government should substantially increase its non-military exploration and/or development of the Earth's oceans.WEST COAST DEBATEOCEAN 2014-2015NOVEMBERResolved: The United States federal government should substantially increase its non-military exploration and/or development of the Earth's oceans.Finding Arguments in this FileUse the table of contents on the next pages to find the evidence you need or the navigation bar on the left. 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All Rights Reserved.Visit our web page! Table of Contents TOC \o "1-3" \h \z \u Resolved: The United States federal government should substantially increase its non-military exploration and/or development of the Earth's oceans. PAGEREF _Toc403109029 \h 2WEST COAST DEBATE PAGEREF _Toc403109030 \h 3Table of Contents PAGEREF _Toc403109031 \h 4Desalination Neg PAGEREF _Toc403109032 \h 7States CP Solvency PAGEREF _Toc403109033 \h 8Conservation CP – Solvency PAGEREF _Toc403109034 \h 9Study Indicts PAGEREF _Toc403109035 \h 10Desal Plants Hurt Ocean Ecosystems PAGEREF _Toc403109036 \h 11Desal Plants Hurt Ocean Ecosystems PAGEREF _Toc403109037 \h 12Desal Plants Hurt Ocean Ecosystems PAGEREF _Toc403109038 \h 14Increases Water Costs PAGEREF _Toc403109039 \h 15Increases Climate Change / Fossil Fuels PAGEREF _Toc403109040 \h 16Increases Climate Change / Fossil Fuels PAGEREF _Toc403109041 \h 17Ocean Nanotech Bad PAGEREF _Toc403109042 \h 18Heidegger/Environmental Management Kritik Link PAGEREF _Toc403109043 \h 19Nanotech hurts marine life PAGEREF _Toc403109044 \h 20Most support a ban on nanotech for iron fertilization PAGEREF _Toc403109045 \h 21Nanotech for aquaculture is inevitable PAGEREF _Toc403109046 \h 22Nanotech is bad for the environment PAGEREF _Toc403109047 \h 23Nanotech is not ready for oil spill clean-up PAGEREF _Toc403109048 \h 25Nanotech is not ready for oil spill clean-up PAGEREF _Toc403109049 \h 26Nanotech is a bad option for oil spills PAGEREF _Toc403109050 \h 27Nanotechnology is destructive PAGEREF _Toc403109051 \h 28Antarctica: Key PAGEREF _Toc403109052 \h 29Antarctic Biodiversity is Valuable PAGEREF _Toc403109053 \h 30Antarctic Biodiversity is Valuable PAGEREF _Toc403109054 \h 31Antarctic Species Key: Krill PAGEREF _Toc403109055 \h 32Antarctic Species Key: Krill PAGEREF _Toc403109056 \h 33Antarctica Key to Warming Remedies PAGEREF _Toc403109057 \h 34Antarctica: Not Protected Now PAGEREF _Toc403109058 \h 35Antarctica Lacks Protection, Under Threat PAGEREF _Toc403109059 \h 36Antarctica Lacks Protection, Under Threat PAGEREF _Toc403109060 \h 37Whales Are at Risk in Antarctic Waters PAGEREF _Toc403109061 \h 38Antarctica: Protected Now PAGEREF _Toc403109062 \h 39Antarctica is Protected in the Status Quo PAGEREF _Toc403109063 \h 40Antarctica is Protected in the Status Quo PAGEREF _Toc403109064 \h 41Antarctica: Whaling Won’t Return PAGEREF _Toc403109065 \h 42Antarctica: International Cooperation Increasing Now PAGEREF _Toc403109066 \h 43Antarctica: Not Key PAGEREF _Toc403109067 \h 44Antarctic Species Not Threatened PAGEREF _Toc403109068 \h 45Antarctic Species Not Threatened PAGEREF _Toc403109069 \h 46Madrid Protocol Solves Environmental Threats in Antarctica PAGEREF _Toc403109070 \h 47International Space Elevator Consortium CP PAGEREF _Toc403109071 \h 48Obayashi CP PAGEREF _Toc403109072 \h 49No solvency – Laundry lists of barriers PAGEREF _Toc403109073 \h 50No solvency – Current materials are insufficient PAGEREF _Toc403109074 \h 51No solvency – (CNTs) Carbon nanotubes fail PAGEREF _Toc403109075 \h 52No solvency – Space radiation prevents PAGEREF _Toc403109076 \h 54No solvency – Space radiation prevents PAGEREF _Toc403109077 \h 55No solvency – Space debris prevents PAGEREF _Toc403109078 \h 56No solvency – Terrorists would attack the elevator PAGEREF _Toc403109079 \h 57Oil Supply in Bad Shape - Aff PAGEREF _Toc403109080 \h 58Yes—Price Spikes Coming PAGEREF _Toc403109081 \h 59Yes—Price Spikes Coming PAGEREF _Toc403109082 \h 60Yes—Price Spikes Coming PAGEREF _Toc403109083 \h 61Yes—Supply Declining Now PAGEREF _Toc403109084 \h 62Yes—Supply Declining Now PAGEREF _Toc403109085 \h 63Yes—Supply Declining Now PAGEREF _Toc403109086 \h 64Yes—Supply Declining Now PAGEREF _Toc403109087 \h 65Yes—Dependent Now PAGEREF _Toc403109088 \h 66Yes—Dependent Now PAGEREF _Toc403109089 \h 67Yes—Dependent Now PAGEREF _Toc403109090 \h 68Yes—Dependency Bad—Anti-American Regimes PAGEREF _Toc403109091 \h 69Yes—Dependency Bad—Anti-American Regimes/ Terrorism PAGEREF _Toc403109092 \h 70Yes—Dependency Bad—Environment/ Climate Chanage PAGEREF _Toc403109093 \h 71Yes—Impact to Oil Shocks—Economy PAGEREF _Toc403109094 \h 72Yes—Impact to Oil Shocks—Economy PAGEREF _Toc403109095 \h 73Oil Supply in Good Shape - Neg PAGEREF _Toc403109096 \h 74No—Price Spikes Not Coming—OPEC Regulates PAGEREF _Toc403109097 \h 75No—Price Spikes Not Coming—Temporary PAGEREF _Toc403109098 \h 76No—Price Spikes Not Coming—A/T Iraq PAGEREF _Toc403109099 \h 77No—Not Dependent Now PAGEREF _Toc403109100 \h 78No—Not Dependent Now PAGEREF _Toc403109101 \h 79No—Not Dependent Now PAGEREF _Toc403109102 \h 80No—Dependency Impact Defense PAGEREF _Toc403109103 \h 81No—Dependency Impact Defense PAGEREF _Toc403109104 \h 82No—Dependency Impact Defense PAGEREF _Toc403109105 \h 83No—Dependency Impact Defense PAGEREF _Toc403109106 \h 84No—Supply Not Decreasing Now PAGEREF _Toc403109107 \h 85No—Supply Not Decreasing Now PAGEREF _Toc403109108 \h 86No—Supply Not Decreasing Now PAGEREF _Toc403109109 \h 87No—Supply Not Decreasing Now PAGEREF _Toc403109110 \h 88No—No Impact to Oil Shocks PAGEREF _Toc403109111 \h 89No—No Impact to Oil Shocks PAGEREF _Toc403109112 \h 90Desalination NegStates CP SolvencyCalifornia is expanding desal nowPaul Rogers, Staff Writer, May 29, 2014, “Nation's largest ocean desalination plant goes up near San Diego; Future of the California coast?,” , Accessed 6/17/2014The crews are building what boosters say represents California's best hope for a drought-proof water supply: the largest ocean desalination plant in the Western Hemisphere. The $1 billion project will provide 50 million gallons of drinking water a day for San Diego County when it opens in 2016. Since the 1970s, California has dipped its toe into ocean desalination --talking, planning, debating. But for a variety of reasons -- mainly cost and environmental concerns-- the state has never taken the plunge. Until now. Fifteen desalination projects are proposed along the coast from Los Angeles to San Francisco Bay. Desalination technology is becoming more efficient. And the state is mired in its third year of drought. Critics and backers alike are wondering whether this project in a town better known as the home of Legoland and skateboard icon Tony Hawk is ushering in a new era.Conservation CP – SolvencyConservation is four times cheaper than desalinationPaul Rogers, Staff Writer, May 29, 2014, “Nation's largest ocean desalination plant goes up near San Diego; Future of the California coast?,” , Accessed 6/17/2014And its price tag is at least four times the cost of obtaining "new water" from conservation methods -- such as paying farmers to install drip irrigation, or providing rebates for homeowners to rip out lawns or buy water-efficient toilets. "We look out and see a vast ocean. It seems obvious," said Heather Cooley, water director for the Pacific Institute, a nonprofit research organization in Oakland. "But it's cost prohibitive for most places in California."Conservation is a better approach than desal. It is proven and costs lessEddie Scher, Staff Writer, March 27, 2010, “Desalination to Dramatically Increase the Cost of Water,” Op-Ed News, , Accessed 6/20/2014An analysis released by independent environmental scientist James Fryer estimates the cost of desalinated seawater in California will be $2,000 to $3,000 or more per acre-foot. Using cost data and production records from existing and proposed desalination plants and adjusting for California water conditions, current energy costs, financing costs, and other variables, the investigation found that there is no evidence to support cost projections by some desalination industry advocates of $800 to $1,000 per acre-foot. The report concludes that conservation measures are much less expensive, with a broad range of well-proven measures that cost well under $1,000 per acre-foot. The report also notes water recycling is a proven option that typically costs between $300 and $1,300 per acre-foot.Water conservation is a better approach than ocean desalinationKatie Francis, Staff Writer, March 13, 2013, “Desalination of Seawater Can Do More Harm than Good,” Greenopedia, , Accessed 6/17/2014For a long-term solution, you can make a personal effort to conserve water. For example, take shorter showers; eliminate leaks in faucets, sprinklers and hoses; turn off the faucet while brushing your teeth and shaving; and use the same water glass throughout the day to cut back on dish washing. If enough water is conserved, it may be possible to eliminate such extreme measures as ocean desalination.Study IndictsPro-desalination studies are not peer-reviewed or credibleDavid A. Roberts, Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, Et al., April 27, 2010, “Impacts of desalination plant discharges on the marine environment: A critical review of published studies,” Water Research, p. 10There is a dearth of basic toxicological information in the published literature pertaining to commonly used anti-scalants that are currently included in brine effluent. Studies that optimise the use of such anti-scalants in order to minimise their inclusion in brine are required. Experience suggests much of the research associated with the effects of desalination plants has been published only in the grey literature. It is important that these studies be published in peer-reviewed journals to further shape the design, location, and management of desalination plants to minimize or eliminate any potential impacts.Desal Plants Hurt Ocean EcosystemsMarine organisms will suffer at the hands of desal plants that contaminate oceansDavid Helvarg, executive director of Blue Frontier, an ocean conservation group, February 7, 2014, “Desalination could help California -- but only if it's done right,” Los Angeles Times, , Accessed 6/20/2014Desal plants also require intake pipes, which can result in large-scale trapping of millions of marine organisms. The plants can (and some do) bury intake pipes under sand or gravel, below the seafloor, to avoid the entrapment problem. This was the Coastal Commission's recommendation for Huntington Beach that Poseidon rejected as a "poison pill." That project is now on hold as the company regroups to "study" the problem. Another desalination issue is the outflow. The process requires the discharge of salt brine concentrate, sometimes contaminated with anti-corrosion cleaning agents from the pipes. The salt brine, which is heavier than seawater, can sink to the ocean bottom and harm ocean life and habitat. Its negative effects can be diluted by mixing it with wastewater or using a series of shower-head-like bottom diffusers to disperse it. The State Water Resources Control Board is formalizing a set of rules to address these issues.Desalination kills a host of different ocean speciesHeather Cooley, Senior Research Associate with the Pacific Institute’s Water Program, April 2010, “Seawater Desalination: Panacea or Hype?,” Action Bioscience, , Accessed 6/20/2014Desalination, like any other major industrial process, has environmental impacts that must be understood and mitigated. These include the effects associated with the construction of desalination plants, and especially the long-term operation of these plants—including the consequences of withdrawing large volumes of brackish water from an aquifer or seawater from the ocean. Large marine organisms, such as adult fish, invertebrates, birds, and even mammals, are killed on the intake screen (impingement); organisms small enough to pass through the intake screens, such as plankton, eggs, larvae, and some fish, are killed during processing of the salt water (entrainment). Impingement and entrainment effects are species and site specific, and only limited research has been completed on the impacts of desalination facilities on the marine environment.Desal Plants Hurt Ocean EcosystemsDesal plants kill marine organisms and destroys estuariesPhillip Reese, Staff Writer, February 11, 2014, “Is desalinization the answer to future droughts?,” Sacramento Bee, , Accessed 6/20/2014Desalination plants contain pipes that can trap marine organisms, harming the ocean’s ecosystem, according to a?recent LA Times op-ed?by David Helvarg, executive director of Blue Frontier, an ocean conservation group. The plants also produce heavy salt brine, which can be hard to eliminate back into the ocean without hurting the environment. “A lot of really salty water could devastate estuaries,” said?Robert Glennon, author of Unquenchable: America’s Water Crisis and What To Do About It.Desalination hurts the environment on multiple levelsRichard Mathews, Staff Writer, March 23, 2013, “Are Desalination Technologies the Answer to the World Water Crisis?,” , Accessed 6/21/2014In addition to its high cost,?desalination technologies?are harmful to the environment. Removing salt from seawater produces brine, which?contains?twice?the salt?of seawater; they also contain contaminants that can affect marine life when dumped back to the sea. If brine is disposed on land, it could seep through the soil and pollute?water reserves underground. The US?Environmental Protection Agency?found that desalination plants kill at least 3.4 billion fish and other marine life annually. This represents?a $212.5 million loss to commercial fisheries.?Desalination plants can also destroy up to 90 percent of plankton and fish eggs in the surrounding water.Desalination plants destroy marine life and use a lot of fossil fuelsMark Anslow, Staff Writer, June 1, 2008, “Desalination - pros and cons of a typically thorny issue,” Ecologist, , Accessed 6/21/2014, pure water from saltwater comensata price, however, and the biggest cost is in terms of energy. Twenty years ago plants used between 5kWh and 10kWh of energy to create one cubic metre (m3) of drinking water – roughly equivalent to the energy used by five to 10 washing machine cycles. Modern plants can do the same with only 2kWh, but even so most of the power demand for desalination is met through the use of fossil fuels. The second cost is one of pollution. Removal of pure water from a salty source creates a concentrated waste stream called brine. Up to twice as salty as sea water, and often containing process chemicals such as chlorine, anti-scaling and anti-caking agents, this discharge can have a significant effect on marine life.Desalination plants pose serious risks for marine lifeDavid A. Roberts, Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, Et al., April 27, 2010, “Impacts of desalination plant discharges on the marine environment: A critical review of published studies,” Water Research, p. 9From a review of the literature it is clear that there is a widespread belief and recognition that desalination plants pose a potentially serious threat to marine ecosystems. The evidence for salinity, thermal, and contaminant impacts of desalination brines upon receiving water quality is relatively clear, however, when brines are released to well-flushed environments impacts tend to be on a small-scale (10 s of meters). Laboratory-based experiments, toxicological investigations and manipulative field experiments clearly demonstrate the potential for brines and their constituents to illicit adverse impacts on aquatic organisms when present at sufficient concentrations. In some cases substantial toxicological effects of desalination brines have been detected on marine vertebrates and invertebrates, at dilutions likely to be encountered in the vicinity of desalination outfalls. Thus, our review of the literature does show that desalination plants may adversely impact the ecology of marine ecosystems. However, while some earlier studies found broad-scale impacts upon the ecology of receiving environments, recent research stresses that appropriate discharge site selection, modelling of ocean currents, and proper plant maintenance and operation will minimise the spatial extent of the ecological effects of desalination plant discharges.Desal Plants Hurt Ocean EcosystemsBrine water from desalination plants poison marine environmentsDavid A. Roberts, Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, Et al., April 27, 2010, “Impacts of desalination plant discharges on the marine environment: A critical review of published studies,” Water Research, p. 2Desalination plants extract large volumes of seawater and discharge hypersaline brine back into the marine environment. The urgent need for water in many parts of the world has meant that historically, marine environmental issues associated with desalination have been considered secondary concerns. Despite this, it is widely suggested that desalination plants have strong potential to detrimentally impact both physicochemical and ecological attributes of receiving marine environments. Considering the widespread use of desalination it is essential to review and synthesize research that has examined the environmental and ecological effects of desalination plants on marine ecosystems. The focal point for concern has been the potential impact of hypersaline discharges (hereafter referred to as ‘brine’) upon the salinity of seawater, and resultant effects to marine communities around discharge outlets. However, concern also exists regarding the use and release of toxic antifoulants and anti-scalants to maintain plant infrastructure and possible thermal stress associated with the release of heated effluent from some systems. Whilst studies have identified several potential mechanisms by which desalination plants may impact upon marine ecosystems many of the published review articles and case studies cite little or no peer reviewed literature, and present little or no empirical data to support statements regarding the environmental effects of desalination. Hence, it is unclear whether the potential impacts of desalination plants are assumed or have been determined through rigorous ecological research.Increases Water CostsDesal doubles water costs and trades off with alternativesPaul Rogers, Staff Writer, May 29, 2014, “Nation's largest ocean desalination plant goes up near San Diego; Future of the California coast?,” , Accessed 6/17/2014Almost every discussion about desalination begins and ends with cost. Desalinated water typically costs about $2,000 an acre foot -- roughly the amount of water a family of five uses in a year. The cost is about double that of water obtained from building a new reservoir or recycling wastewater, according to a 2013 study from the state Department of Water Resources.Massive energy needs for desalination increase water costsFelicity Barringer, Staff Writer, February 28, 2013, “In California, What Price Water?,” New York Times, 03/01/business/energy-environment/a-costly-california-desalination-plant-bets-on-future-affordability.html?_r=0, Accessed 6/17/2014The environmental group the Surfrider Foundation, which has fought the Carlsbad plant at every turn, expects the plant to be an object lesson in how not to guard against water shortages. Among other things, the foundation emphasizes the energy needs of the plant, which will consume 5,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity to produce an acre-foot of water. As electricity costs go up over time, the county’s water bill — already estimated to be $5 to $7 a month higher for each customer by 2016, thanks to Carlsbad — will rise in tandem. But authority officials noted that water delivered from the Southern California district also required energy, and its cost, too, would go up in such circumstances.Water costs will dramatically increaseHeather Cooley, Senior Research Associate with the Pacific Institute’s Water Program, April 2010, “Seawater Desalination: Panacea or Hype?,” Action Bioscience, , Accessed 6/20/2014The cost of desalination has fallen in recent years, but it remains an expensive water-supply option. Typical costs for water produced through desalination range from $1,200-2,000 per acre-foot—substantially more expensive than most other water supply and demand management options. The assumption that desalination costs will continue to fall may be false. Further cost reductions may be limited, and actually, future costs may increase.Increases Climate Change / Fossil FuelsMost desal plants use fossil fuels and increase warmingAlain Nellen, FDI Research Intern, Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme, July 28, 2011, “Desalination: A Viable Answer to Deal with Water Crises?,” , Accessed 6/19/2014The majority of desalination plants in operation (and planned future plants) use energy from fossil fuels or nuclear power. For countries in the Middle East, which have a huge quantity of domestic petroleum sources that seems the obvious choice. Energy generation from both these sources includes serious interlinked environmental concerns. Therefore, growth in the number of desalination plants could result in a larger reliance on fossil fuels and in an increase in greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Globally, the use of renewable energy technology as part of the main power supply is becoming more popular. Solar or wind generated energy can be used as a low temperature heat source. For example, by the end of 2011, Western Australia will derive about 30 per cent of its fresh water from two seawater RO desalination plants operated by renewable energy, such as wind. The construction of another plant of the same type for Esperance and Karratha is under consideration.Desal plants rely on fossil fuels that cause climate changeParis Tech Review, Editors, July 24, 2013, “Desalination: An Ocean of Hope,” desalination-hope/, Accessed 6/20/2014Most of the world’s desalination plants still tap fossil fuels, which makes them unsustainable long term environmentally and economically, no matter how efficient their energy use. In the Middle East and North Africa region, the obvious choice is to convert the plants from oil to solar power, which potentially is unlimited. The region could generate enough solar energy to meet current world demand several times over. Replacing fossil fuels would also significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions, a chief contributor to climate change.Seawater desalination is more energy intensive than alternativesHeather Cooley, Senior Research Associate with the Pacific Institute’s Water Program, April 2010, “Seawater Desalination: Panacea or Hype?,” Action Bioscience, , Accessed 6/20/2014Seawater desalination is an energy-intensive process. Energy is the largest single variable cost for a desalination plant, varying from one-third to more than one-half the cost of produced water.?Additionally, more energy is required to produce water from desalination than from most other water supply or demand-management options. Because of its energy intensity, desalinated water is more sensitive to changes in energy prices than other sources of water. Efforts to reuse energy or minimize energy demands will help reduce overall costs. Although opportunities for reducing energy use certainly exist, there are ultimate limits beyond which energy-efficiency improvements cannot be made. Increases Climate Change / Fossil FuelsDesal is too costly, energy intensive, and contributes to global warmingDavid Helvarg, executive director of Blue Frontier, an ocean conservation group, February 7, 2014, “Desalination could help California -- but only if it's done right,” Los Angeles Times, , Accessed 6/20/2014Desalination is more costly than other water sources. But improvements in the technology, combined with drought, general water scarcity and growing water demand, are beginning to make it commercially competitive. Aside from cost, obstacles to desalination include high energy use and the risks associated with what's pulled into the intake pipes and what's pumped back out. Both desalination processes are energy intensive , although reverse osmosis is more energy efficient. Critics argue that unless desalination is powered by clean, non-carbon energy sources, it will contribute mightily to the very process of global warming that is generating water loss and scarcity.Desalination increases fossil fuels and greenhouse gasesNuclear Energy Institute, Staff Writer, 2014, “Water Desalination,” , Accessed 6/19/2014Readily available drinking water is out of reach for as much as a fifth of the world’s population, a bar to human development. One solution is water desalination, which extracts salt from seawater to produce drinkable fresh water. Nuclear energy is being used for some desalination efforts, but the potential in this arena is enormous and has multiple benefits over the more common fossil-fuel based desalination. Desalination plants largely use fossil fuels, contributing to increased greenhouse gas emissions. There are about 15,000 plants producing desalinated water, most in the Middle East and North Africa—the largest is in Saudi Arabia. Ocean Nanotech BadHeidegger/Environmental Management Kritik LinkNanotechnology is the epitome of positivist science that seeks to remake NatureRobert Frodeman, Department of Philosophy and Religion Studies, University of North Texas, 2006, “Nanotechnology: The Visible and the Invisible,” Science as Culture, Vol. 15,?Issue 4, , Accessed 7/13/2014Of course, one must wary of speaking as if continental philosophy is univocal. Continental philosophy comes in many forms: phenomenology, existentialism, hermeneutics, structuralism and post-structuralism, post-modernism and deconstruction, critical theory, as well as the work of Hegel, Marx, Kierkegaard, and Nietzsche. Indeed, Brian Leiter has claimed that there no is such thing as “continental philosophy”—although this does not stop him from later describing continental philosophy as having been improved by the greater logical rigor of analytic philosophy. For our purposes, the common message of many species of continental philosophy is the suspicion of the positivist claim that modern science has rendered traditional philosophical concerns otiose. Rather, we are still – and in the case of nanotechnology, again with greater force – condemned to questions of metaphysics (what is the nature of the self?), aesthetics (what counts as a flourishing life?), and theology (are there more than prudential limits to what we should do?). Nanotechnology challenges our ideas concerning the nature of the self, the reality of the sensuous world, and our norms concerning the proper limits of our behavior. Reflecting upon these larger and more traditional philosophic concerns in the context of the nanotechnology revolution must become an integral part of public policy.Nanotech hurts marine lifeNanoparticles would escape and devastate marine lifeTom Levitt, Staff Writer, September 21, 2012, “Cleaning up oil spills with magnets and nanotechnology,” CNN, , Accessed 7/13/2014The use of tiny nanoparticles is seen by some as controversial. As well as being complex and difficult to use on a large-scale, there are concerns they could damage marine life, if accidentally released. While their impact on the environment is still largely unknown, scientists such as David Andrews from the U.S.-based Environmental Working Group (EWG), say their use should be limited.Nanomaterials can contaminate water and kill organismsY. R. Mahajan, Researcher at the Centre for Knowledge Management of Nanoscience & Technology, January 2011, “Nanotechnology-based solutions for oil spills,” Nanotech Insights, , Accessed 7/13/2014Unfortunately, in recent times, there has been a kind of hysteria about the harmful effects of nanotechnology being propagated by certain sections of the media, NGOs and the general public due to misinformation and/or lack of understanding?. In view of these environmental concerns, there is a clear need to carry out detailed studies and generate requisite data on toxicological effects of nanomaterials. Such data generation is especially pertinent in case of nano-dispersants, which may have the potential to cause damage to organisms in water bodies. In dealing with nanostructured materials such as CNT nanosponge, nanowire membranes etc., it is essential to ensure that individual nanotubes, nanowires etc. are not detached from the product to contaminate the water.Most support a ban on nanotech for iron fertilizationAlmost 200 countries support a ban on nanotech iron fertilizationFoE Australia, 2009, Friends of the Earth (FoE) International is the world’s largest federation of environmental organisations with member groups in?77 countries, “Using nanotechnology to 're-engineer' our environment? With federal funding?,” , Accessed 7/13/2014Geo-engineering took a blow in June when 191 countries, through the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), supported a de facto moratorium on ocean fertilisation. But this was no thanks to efforts from the Australian Government.?Reuters reports?that Australia, China and Brazil blocked the moratorium until the 11th hour. Australia's support for geo-engineering was despite several companies planning to dump large quantities of tiny, perhaps nanoscale, iron filings into the ocean to produce algal blooms that could supposedly suck up carbon dioxide - enabling the companies to claim carbon credits worth millions of dollars.Nanotech for aquaculture is inevitableNanotech in aquaculture is inevitable and solves all the advantagesGustavo A. Dominguez, Staff Writer, February 11, 2014, “Nanotechnology in the Aquaculture?Industry,” Sustainable Nano, , Accessed 7/13/2014Overall, the adoption of nanotechnology into different aquaculture procedures seems to be inevitable and will surely bring more advances to this activity in the future. Since nanotechnology may help aquaculture production by improving feeding formulation, disease control, biofouling control, and possibly many other processes, perhaps your next fish filet or shrimp cocktail will have been raised on the benefits of nanotechnology.Nanotech is bad for the environmentNanomaterials have high potential to disrupt ecosystems through bioaccumulationAlexis McGivern, Staff Writer, February 20, 2014, “Nanotechnology: New Innovation, New Concerns,” St. Andrew Foreign Affairs Review, , Accessed 7/14/2014Why have environmentalists flagged this innovation as a concern? The risk lies in the appeal of nanotechnology – the opening up of a new realm of materials. Materials at the nano scale have fundamentally different properties to the same materials at the ‘bulk level’ (non-nano), which is important for innovation and expanding the use of commonly used materials. However, these changing properties bring with them changing toxicological profiles. Studies have shown that the inhalation of carbon nanotubes (nano scale tubes of graphitic carbon, used in items like tennis rackets and baseball bats for their strength and light weight) can have the same effect on the lungs as asbesto. These changing toxicological profiles therefore create risks to human health and to the natural world. Many nanoparticles demonstrate potential for bio magnification and bioaccumulation in the environment, which allow toxins to build up within a food chain and threaten fragile ecosystems.Nanotech is a double-edged sword for the environment, with constant riskBengwei Zhang, PhD, Department of Mechanical Engineering at Wichita State University, Et al., 2011, Proceedings of the 2011 Midwest Section Conference of the American Society for Engineering Education, 2011/ASEE-MIDWEST_0030_c25dbf.pdf, Accessed 7/14/2014There is no doubt that nanotechnology will continue to be develop, be a benefit to society and improve the environment in various ways. Nanoscale materials will make the products better in terms of functionality, weight savings, less energy consumption and a cleaner environment. Shortcomings always exist when new unproven technology is released. Nanomaterial may help clean certain environmental wastes, but contaminate environment in other ways. Choosing the right nanoscale materials is one of the key parameters for the future direction of nanotechnology. Engineering ethics need to be defined before the commercial use of nanotechnology. Risk assessment on new nanomaterial based application is important to evaluate potential risk to our environment when the products are in use. Full life cycle evaluation and analysis for all difference applications should be conducted with constant attention.Manganese oxide nanowires are toxicMason Inman, Staff Writer, May 30 2008, “Nanotech 'tissue' loves oil spills, hates water,” New Scientist, , Accessed 7/13/2014The manganese oxide nanowires are normally very attractive to water. However, adding a silicon coating switches the material to being strongly water repellent. It also becomes able to guzzle oil. Tests showed the material can suck up 20 times its weight in motor oil, and 10 times its weight in gasoline. The new material is much more selective than other similar materials, such as those made of polymer or glass fibres, tests showed. Those materials all absorb some water as well as oil. "Our material can be left in water a month or two, and when you take it out it's still dry," Stellacci says. "But if that water contains some hydrophobic [oily] contaminants they will get absorbed." The membranes are tough, too, and can withstand being heated to evaporate off any oils. High temperatures remove the silicon coating, but once a new one is applied, the membrane is ready to use again, the researchers showed. The membrane has "extraordinary selectivity and capacity for the separation of oil from water," says?Joerg Lahann?of the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, US. But Lahann points out that manganese oxide may not be the best material for real-world applications because it could be toxic. He says, though, that the new material "clearly provides a blueprint that can guide the design of future nanomaterials for environmental applications."Nanomaterials can a host of health risks to people and the environmentJohn Balbus, program director, at Environmental Defense, Et al., November 27, 2013, “Getting Nanotechnology Right the First Time,” Issues in Science & Technology, , Accessed 7/14/2014At the same time, these novel properties may pose new risks to workers, consumers, the public, and the environment. The few data now available give cause for concern: Some nanomaterials appear to have the potential to damage skin, brain, and lung tissue, to be mobile or persistent in the environment, or to kill microorganisms (potentially including ones that constitute the base of the food web). This trickle of data only highlights how little is known about the environmental and health effects of engineered nanomaterials.?Nanotech is not ready for oil spill clean-upNanotechnology cannot clean up oil spills for at least ten yearsDiscovery News, Staff Writer, February 11, 2013, “Can Nanotechnology Help with the Oil Spill in the Gulf?,” , Accessed 7/13/2014So to get a sense of where we really are I wanted to get the perspective of my colleague,?Tim Harper, who in addition to being a noted expert on the commercialization of nanotechnologies also has devoted his attention to the use of nanotechnologies in cleantech including its remediation capabilities, leading him to his presentation this week in Australia at the conference?Cleantech Science and Solutions: mainstream and at the edge. "If you are looking for a quick fix from nanotechnology, forget it," says Harper. "Nanotech is already making an impact in reducing energy, and therefore oil use, it is also being used to create stronger lighter materials that can be used for pipelines, and enabling better sensors for early warning of damage, but in terms of cleaning up the mess, the contribution is minor at best." Clearly not the hopeful words that many would have hoped for, and the pity is that it might have been different, according to Harper. "As with all technologies, the applications take a while to develop," he says. "If someone had come up with some funding 10 years ago for this specific application then we may have had better tools to deal with it."It is too early to uses nanomembranes for oil spillsPrachi Patel, Staff Writer, June 2, 2008, “Nano Sponge For Oil Spills,” Technology Review, , Accessed 7/14/2014Researchers hope that the nanomembrane could reduce waste and lower the cost of cleaning oil spills from boats and in the petroleum industry. But Doug Helton, a scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, says that it might be too early to say whether the nanomembrane might be practical in cleaning up large oil spills. The heating technique needed to clean the membrane might prove “a fairly onerous process,” he says. Plus, the membrane’s oil-sopping capacity might diminish at a real spill. “Oil spills are pretty messy,” Helton says. “There might be a lot of debris. That might reduce the efficiency of the sorbent.” For now, Helton thinks the membrane could be good for removing water contaminants at factories or cleaning up smaller oil spills–in garages and machine shops.Nanomaterials for oil spill cleanup are still in the patent stageDiscovery News, Staff Writer, February 11, 2013, “Can Nanotechnology Help with the Oil Spill in the Gulf?,” , Accessed 7/13/2014At least four patents and/or innovations in nanomaterials address the cleanup or remediation of oil spills. But experts say the contribution will be minor at best. When I saw the initial news reports on the?oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, after I shook my head in despair for that region already struck by Hurricane Katrina just five years ago, I thought of how long it would take for people to turn to nanotechnology for a possible solution to clean up the mess. I guess I wasn't the only person to think this as the blog?Nanopatents and Innovations?pulled out at least four patents and/or innovations in nanomaterials that address the cleanup or remediation of oil spills. Now as anyone who is familiar with how technologies are developed knows it is a far cry from securing a patent to getting it do something in the real world.Nanotech is not ready for oil spill clean-upUsing nanotech for environmental remediation is still in research stages Paul G. Tratnyek and Richard L. Johnson, Oregon Health & Science University, Department of Environmental and Biomolecular Systems, May 2006, “Nanotechnologies for environmental cleanup,” Nano Today, , Accessed 7/14/2014The above discussion of the morphology, reactivity, and mobility of nanoparticles in the context of environmental remediation demonstrates that our current understanding of the basic processes involved in this technology is still evolving and incomplete. In addition to making it difficult to move forward with the engineering of full-scale implementations, these uncertainties make it very difficult to assess the risks that this technology might have to human or ecological health. Specifically with respect to in situ applications of nZVI (or related materials) to remediation of environmental porous media, there is not yet any research and development that directly and substantively addresses the issue of risk. Recognizing this, some groups have adopted the ‘precautionary’ position that in situ applications of nanoparticles for remediation should be prohibited, whereas others have recommended, in effect, that research on all fronts should proceed in parallel.Nanotech for oil spills is still in the development stageY. R. Mahajan, Researcher at the Centre for Knowledge Management of Nanoscience & Technology, January 2011, “Nanotechnology-based solutions for oil spills,” Nanotech Insights, , Accessed 7/13/2014Conventional techniques are not adequate to solve the problem of massive oil spills. In recent years, nanotechnology has emerged as a potential source of novel solutions to many of the world's outstanding problems. Although the application of nanotechnology for oil spill cleanup is still in its nascent stage, it offers great promise for the future. In the last couple of years, there has been particularly growing interest worldwide in exploring ways of finding suitable solutions to clean up oil spills through use of nanomaterials.Nanotech is a bad option for oil spillsThere are too many environmental concerns. Nanotech is not a quick fix for spillsDiscovery News, Staff Writer, February 11, 2013, “Can Nanotechnology Help with the Oil Spill in the Gulf?,” , Accessed 7/13/2014The situation is not without its irony, of course, since the reason we are not currently in a position to use nanomaterials for cleaning up this oil spill is in part environmental concerns. "It is somewhat ironic that we spend so much time and effort worrying about the safety of a variety of nanomaterials that most people are unlikely to ever come into contact with, while we don't seem to be able to avoid environmental catastrophes on the scale of the Gulf of Mexico oil spillage occurring," says Harper. The way forward, according to Harper, will not be a quick fix but dedicated and broad-based work. Nanotechnology is destructiveNanomachines could eat everything on the planet and make arms races more likely and unstableAnders Sandberg, James Martin Research Fellow at University of Oxford, June 11, 2014, “The five biggest threats to human existence,” Washington Post, , Accessed 7/14/2014Nanotechnology is the control over matter with atomic or molecular precision. That is in itself not dangerous – instead, it would be very good news for most applications. The problem is that, like biotechnology, increasing power also increases the potential for abuses that are hard to defend against. The big problem is not the infamous “grey goo” of self-replicating nanomachines eating everything. That would require clever design for this very purpose. It is tough to make a machine replicate: Biology is much better at it, by default. Maybe some maniac would eventually succeed, but there are plenty of more low-hanging fruits on the destructive technology tree. The most obvious risk is that atomically precise manufacturing looks ideal for rapid, cheap manufacturing of things like weapons. In a world where any government could “print” large amounts of autonomous or semi-autonomous weapons (including facilities to make even more), arms races could become very fast – and hence unstable, since doing a first strike before the enemy gets too large an advantage might be tempting. Weapons can also be small, precision things: A “smart poison” that acts like a nerve gas but seeks out victims, or ubiquitous “gnatbot” surveillance systems for keeping populations obedient, seem entirely possible. Also, there might be ways of getting nuclear proliferation and climate engineering into the hands of anybody who wants it. We cannot judge the likelihood of existential risk from? nanotechnology, but it looks like it could be potentially disruptive just because it can give us whatever we wish for.Antarctica: KeyAntarctic Biodiversity is ValuableInterference “dumbs down” species diversity in Antarctic climate, decreasing its resilience and genetic valueNational Oceanography Centre, March 30, 2011"Human impacts on the marine ecosystems of Antarctica," National Environment Research Council (UK), (accessed 7/25/2014)Biodiversity can be conceptualised in terms of its information content: the greater the diversity of species and interactions between them, the more ‘information’ the ecosystem has. “By damaging the ecological fabric of Antarctica, we are effectively dumbing it down – decreasing its information content – and endangering its uniqueness and resilience,” said lead author Professor Richard Aronson, a paleoecologist at the Florida Institute of Technology, USA.Oceans of Antarctica are under unique threat, warming is occurring rapidly there and icy shelf seabeds mean biodiversity collapse is likelyHuw J. Griffiths, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, August 2, 2010"Antarctic Marine Biodiversity – What Do We Know About the Distribution of Life in the Southern Ocean?" Public Library of Science, (accessed 7/26/2014)The seas to the northeast and the west of the Antarctic Peninsula are some of the fastest warming areas on Earth. The marine environment is also changing rapidly. The collapse of several floating ice shelves has dramatically altered coastal and shelf habitat on the Peninsula. Sea ice formation in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas has decreased by 10% per decade and has also shortened in seasonal length [40]. Because the frequency of ice scour on the shelf seabed is closely linked to sea ice duration, the catastrophic disturbance of shallow biodiversity is likely to significantly increase [16]. There has been an overall warming of surface waters (in the Bellingshausen and Scotia seas) by ~1°C in the last 50 years, but so far there is no evidence of any biologically meaningful temperature change in waters below about 100 m deep.Antarctic Biodiversity is ValuablePolar ecosystems are unique and unpredictablePete Convey, Ecologist at British Antarctic Survey, et al, 2010"Antarctic Ecosystems: Adaptations, Thresholds and Resilience," Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, (accessed 7/25/2014)Large-scale ecosystem processes depend on a cascade of organismal responses from the genomic through cellular to physiological. Recent studies have shown that evolutionary adaptation to the polar environment may constrain an organism’s ability to respond to environmental change. The extreme environment and marked difference in community complexity between the Polar Regions and much of the rest of the planet may mean that consequences of stress for ecosystem function and services, and their resistance and resilience, will differ from elsewhere. Polar ecosystem processes are therefore key to informing wider ecological debate about the nature of stability and change in ecosystems.Hundreds of unique species and sources of biomass are found in Antarctic seasClaire Christian, Director of the Secretariat of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition, et al, July 17, 2014"Antarctic Ocean Legacy: Towards Protection of the Weddell Sea Region," Antarctic Ocean Alliance, (accessed 7/25/2014)Two hundred and thirty different species of amphipods can be found on the eastern Weddell Sea continental shelf alone. Sponges contribute up to 96% of the biomass in undisturbed areas of the eastern Weddell Sea continental shelf and are represented by hundreds of different species. Other benthic organisms of note in the Weddell Sea region include echinoderms, such as sea urchins, sand dollars, sea cucumbers, sea stars, anemones, tunicates, bryozoa and corals. It has been reported that polychaete richness is even higher on the Weddell Sea continental shelf than on that of the Ross Sea.Antarctic Species Key: KrillWarming threatens KrillClaire Christian, Director of the Secretariat of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition, et al, July 17, 2014"Antarctic Ocean Legacy: Towards Protection of the Weddell Sea Region," Antarctic Ocean Alliance, (accessed 7/25/2014)Current predictions of warming in the Weddell Sea indicate that even under scenarios in which carbon emissions decrease below recent levels, krill populations are likely to decline.37,38 As this occurs, salp populations may increase, with unknown but likely negative consequences for the ecosystem, particularly higher trophic levels due to salps lower food value compared to krill.Krill are key to the survival of thousands of key speciesMarta Demarteau, Hydrobiologist at AQUON Instituut voor Wateronderzoek en Advies, August 13, 2013"Antarctic Krill: The Key to Survival," Orbica Blog, (accessed 7/25/2014)Krill are swimming marine herbivores belonging to the crustaceans. They are the little creatures beneath the deep blue ocean surface, gathering in huge numbers all around the world, and especially in the southern polar regions. They look a little bit like shrimps, though they are quite different in appearance when you take a closer look at them. Krill are about 6 centimeters long, and they carry their gills on the external skeleton, while the gills of shrimps are located within their body. Krill are a huge deal. They hold a key position in the Southern Ocean: countless animals survive on krill in very harsh polar conditions that most of us can't even imagine. Antarctic Species Key: KrillKrill are vital to Antarctic food chainMarta Demarteau, Hydrobiologist at AQUON Instituut voor Wateronderzoek en Advies, August 13, 2013"Antarctic Krill: The Key to Survival," Orbica Blog, (accessed 7/25/2014)Dr. Robert King, krill biologist at the Australian Antarctic Division in Hobart Tasmania, explains that krill consists of 85 different species of the order Euphausiacea. Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, is most famous and widely studied within Antarctic Research Programmes. This is no surprise when you consider their importance to Antarctic food chains: the majority of animals feed on krill, and the abundance of krill availability is therefore key to their survival (OU Frozen Planet S175-13D Activities, Activity 7.2, Clip 3). Millions of penguins, seals, sea birds, fish, squid and thousands of whales depend on krill to assemble by the billions in summer. Krill link lower and higher levels of the food webClaire Christian, Director of the Secretariat of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition, et al, July 17, 2014"Antarctic Ocean Legacy: Towards Protection of the Weddell Sea Region," Antarctic Ocean Alliance, (accessed 7/25/2014)Antarctic krill, considered one of the most important species in the Antarctic food web, plays the same critical ecosystem role as elsewhere in the Southern Ocean by linking primary production to higher levels of the food web. The northernmost region of the planning domain, which is closest to the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has the greatest concentration of krill, while areas further south have comparatively fewer krill.Antarctica Key to Warming RemediesAntarctic ocean regions serve as climate reference and refuge points for ice-dependent speciesClaire Christian, Director of the Secretariat of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition, et al, July 17, 2014"Antarctic Ocean Legacy: Towards Protection of the Weddell Sea Region," Antarctic Ocean Alliance, (accessed 7/25/2014)Although the deadline has passed, the South Orkneys MPA has been created and mature proposals for the Ross Sea and East Antarctic regions are close to designation. AOA's proposed 19 areas include ecosystems critical to the life history stages of endemic species including the toothfish--the region's top predatory fish. They contain the breeding and foraging grounds for animals high in the food web, such as penguins, seals and whales. Furthermore, regions such as the Ross Sea, East Antarctica and the Weddell Sea can serve as valuable climate reference areas and critical climate refugia for ice-dependent species.Antarctic fish key to ocean warming survivalEconomic Times (India), July 24, 2014"Antarctic fish might survive ocean warming: Study," economictimes., (accessed 7/27/2014)A species of Antarctic fish might be able to survive the predicted warming of its native waters over the next century if the warming is gradual enough, according to a New Zealand scientist. University of Canterbury researcher Charlotte Austin tested how the emerald rock cod adapted to warmer waters after being removed from its minus 1.9-degree centigrade habitat below the Antarctic ice, Xinhua reported. The fish were able to fully recover from short exposures to temperatures up to 6 degrees centigrade, but long periods of time at 4 degrees centigrade was fatal, Austin said in a statement Thursday. However, if the temperature increase was gradual, all fish tested survived the 56 days of the experiment at 3 degrees centigrade and were able to successfully digest food, a vital physiological process for survival, she said. The results provide some optimism for the survival of this species if ocean temperature in Antarctic does not exceed the predicted increase of 2 degrees centigrade over the next century. Austin said Antarctic cod dominated the Southern Ocean and were vital to the food-web and ecosystem due to a wide range of predators, including whales, orca, seals, penguins and other fish.Antarctica: Not Protected NowAntarctica Lacks Protection, Under ThreatHuman development is undermining Antarctic species nowNational Oceanography Centre, March 30, 2011"Human impacts on the marine ecosystems of Antarctica," National Environment Research Council (UK), (accessed 7/25/2014)A team of scientists in the United Kingdom and the United States has warned that the native fauna and unique ecology of the Southern Ocean, the vast body of water that surrounds the Antarctic continent, is under threat from human activity. Their study is published this week in the peer-reviewed journal Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. “Although Antarctica is still the most pristine environment on Earth, its marine ecosystems are being degraded through the introduction of alien species, pollution, overfishing, and a mix of other human activities,” said team member Dr Sven Thatje of the University of Southampton’s School of Ocean and Earth Science (SOES) based at the UK’s National Oceanography Centre.Pristine and diverse Antarctic ecosystems under threat from overfishing and climate changeGlobal Penguin Conservation, July 25, 2014"A Need for New Antarctic Protections," Pew Charitable Trusts, (accessed 7/27/2014)Spared from much of the widespread pollution, invasive species, and large-scale commercial fishing imperiling the world’s oceans, the waters surrounding Antarctica hold some of the most pristine and diverse marine ecosystems on earth. However, conditions are changing and there is an urgent need to protect the Southern Ocean from overfishing and to address the impacts of climate change.Antarctica Lacks Protection, Under ThreatExtremely low percentage of Antarctic geography is protectedMartin Perry, correspondent for Agence France Presse, June 28, 2014"Scientists warn of tourism threat to Antarctica," Japan Times, (accessed 7/25/2014)“Many people think that Antarctica is well protected from threats to its biodiversity because it’s isolated and no one lives there,” said Justine Shaw from the NERP of the study published in the journal PLOS Biology. “However, we show that there are threats to Antarctic biodiversity. Most of Antarctica is covered in ice, with less than 1 percent permanently ice-free.” “Only 1.5 percent of this ice-free area belongs to Antarctic Specially Protected Areas under the Antarctic Treaty System, yet ice-free land is where the majority of biodiversity occurs.”Antarctica under threat by tourism, invasive speciesMartin Perry, correspondent for Agence France Presse, June 28, 2014"Scientists warn of tourism threat to Antarctica," Japan Times, (accessed 7/25/2014)Steven Chown of Monash University, another collaborator in the study, said the ice-free areas contain very simple ecosystems due to Antarctica’s low species diversity. This makes its native wildlife and plants extremely vulnerable to invasion by outside species, which can be introduced by human activity. “Antarctica has been invaded by plants and animals, mostly grasses and insects, from other continents,” he said. “The very real current and future threats from invasions are typically located close to protected areas. Such threats to protected areas from invasive species have been demonstrated elsewhere in the world, and we find that Antarctica is, unfortunately, no exception.” The study said the current level of protection was “inadequate by any measure” with Shaw saying more was needed to guard against the threat posed by the booming tourism industry. “(We need) to protect a diverse suite of native insects, plants and seabirds, many of which occur nowhere else in the world,” she said. “We also need to ensure that Antarctic protected areas are not going to be impacted by human activities, such as pollution, trampling or invasive species.”Whales Are at Risk in Antarctic WatersJapan will resume Antarctic whale huntsMiguel Llanos, environment and weather news reporter for , July 16, 2014"Experts Concerned by Japan's Talk of Scientific Whaling," NBC News, (accessed 7/26/2014)Undeterred by a legal setback, Japan has given signs that it intends to restart whale hunts in the Southern Ocean off Antarctica, claiming that the hunts are for scientific purposes –- but experts around the world aren’t buying it. Whale experts and environmentalists outside Japan say that, even if the hunts are drastically reduced, the country uses the guise of research to effectively get around the moratorium on commercial whaling set in 1986 by the nations within the International Whaling Commission, Japan included.Japan will begin whaling in 2015Jenna Iacurci, staffwriter at Nature World News, July 8, 2014"Whale Hunts Will Resume in 2015, Says Japan Prime Minister," Nature World News, (accessed 7/25/2014)Whale hunts in the name of "scientific research" will resume in 2015, Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced Monday at a press conference - a declaration that is in direct opposition to a ruling from the UN's International Court of Justice (ICJ) earlier this year. Japan contends that their annual slaughter of whales in the Southern Ocean is necessary for study, but in March the ICJ ordered the country to halt all such whaling operations, concluding that "the special permits granted by Japan for the killing, taking and treating of whales... are not for scientific research," according to a press release. However, it seems that Prime Minister Abe is snubbing this court order with his announcement that Japan will indeed resume their whaling "research" program, but that the country is a "good international citizen" and will still adhere to the ICJ ruling.Antarctica: Protected NowAntarctica is Protected in the Status QuoSeveral integrated treaties protect both marine and terrestrial resources in AntarcticaHuw J. Griffiths, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, August 2, 2010"Antarctic Marine Biodiversity – What Do We Know About the Distribution of Life in the Southern Ocean?" Public Library of Science, (accessed 7/26/2014)Under the Antarctic Treaty System, several international agreements are in place to protect Antarctic wildlife and vegetation. Antarctica is protected by the Protocol on Environmental Protection, which came into force in January 1998. There are currently 67 Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs) and 7 Antarctic Specially Managed Areas (ASMAs), of which 6 are dedicated marine ASPAs, while 11 ASPAs and 4 ASMAs contain both marine and terrestrial habitat (Figure 9). More recently, CCAMLR adopted a proposal by Australia to declare two areas in the Southern Ocean as Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs) and to prohibit fishing in CCAMLR waters shallower than 550 m to protect benthic habitats. Fishing is currently prohibited in these VMEs until an appropriate management system for these areas is decided upon.1959 treaty empirically protects Antarctica from exploitation Nick Rowley, Professor, Sydney Democracy Network at University of Sydney, July 3, 2014"In Conversation: what does the future hold for Antarctica?" The Conversation, (accessed 7/25/2014)Under the Antarctic Treaty of 1959 Antarctica is the first continent to move beyond the modern doctrine of sovereign territorial states: “No acts or activities taking place while the present Treaty is in force”, states Article IV, “shall constitute a basis for asserting, supporting or denying a claim to territorial sovereignty in Antarctica or create any rights of sovereignty in Antarctica.” Thus far the Antarctic Treaty system has produced a peaceful regime for scientific and multi-State cooperation. Tourism is regulated by international monitoring, and tourists do not pose a threatHuw J. Griffiths, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, August 2, 2010"Antarctic Marine Biodiversity – What Do We Know About the Distribution of Life in the Southern Ocean?" Public Library of Science, (accessed 7/26/2014)Tourism in Antarctica is a growing and lucrative industry, much of which is based on the wildlife of the region, and recent visitor numbers have increased year on year from less than 7,000 per year in 1992 to around 35,000 in 2007. Antarctic tourism is regulated by the International Association of Antarctic Tour Operators, a voluntary organization made up of private-sector tour operators. Although tourist levels are increasing, they do not seem to pose a major threat to the region at current levels, other than localized incidents of pollution.Antarctica is Protected in the Status QuoTreaty system has empirically protected Antarctica from commercial exploitation and territorial claimsJulia Jabour, Lecturer, Ocean and Antarctic Governance Research Program at University of Tasmania, July 3, 2014"In Conversation: what does the future hold for Antarctica?" The Conversation, (accessed 7/25/2014)Even if Antarctic governance has challenged some key metaphors, why does this matter? And what good and harm has it done? The important question is whether the Treaty and the system that it has given rise to over the past 50 years or so has been effective. By and large, it has. The Treaty has done two key things extraordinarily well: it has protected the continent from commercial exploitation, and it has set aside sovereign claims that were a real source of international tension post 1945. It is incumbent on anyone who criticises the working of the current system to set out what sort of system might prove a more effective way for states and peoples to take decisions about the continent.Threat to Antarctica is overstatedTony Press, CEO, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC at University of Tasmania, July 3, 2014"In Conversation: what does the future hold for Antarctica?" The Conversation, (accessed 7/25/2014)The threat to the Antarctic by new powers is, in my view, overstated. Recent public commentary has raised the issue of “mining post-2048”. Much of this commentary is ill-founded. The Antarctic mining ban does not expire. In my view there is little chance of the prohibition on Antarctic mining being challenged from within or outside the Antarctic Treaty. None-the-less, many commentators see the increased interest by some countries in Antarctica as their assertion of a basis for claim, yet the provisions of Article IV will apply for as long as the Antarctic Treaty exists. And it won’t be easy to amend the Treaty: that requires unanimity of all signatories. So, as we say, “if it ain’t broke, why fix it?”. Within the workings of the ATS there is very little appetite from any country to fundamentally change the system. One should not be too complacent, but it is likely that this situation will continue.Antarctica has empirically been kept pristine by treaties that are still in placeChristopher C. Joyner, Professor of Government at Georgetown University and Guest Investigator, Marine Policy Center, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Fall 1994"Fragile Ecosystems: Preclusive Restoration in the Antarctic," Natural Resources Journal, vol. 34, (accessed 7/26/2014)In the case of the Antarctic ecosystem, no pervasive manmade eco-catastrophe has yet occurred that might warrant massive restoration. As a fragile ecosystem the Antarctic has not yet been so severely disrupted as to necessitate large-scale restoration efforts. The Antarctic remains relatively pristine. Yet this situation is not one wholly of happenstance or natural occurrence. It has been brought about by intentional, human design. The Antarctic continent and its circumpolar seas have been purposefully protected through a nexus of treaty arrangements by certain states having direct interests in and commitments to the region. Antarctica: Whaling Won’t ReturnU.S. and other opposition will block a return to whalingMiguel Llanos, environment and weather news reporter for , July 16, 2014"Experts Concerned by Japan's Talk of Scientific Whaling," NBC News, (accessed 7/26/2014)Don't expect a return to commercial whaling any time soon given the strong opposition from the United States, Australia and many other nations. An IWC management system does exist on paper that would typically set commercial catch limits at half a percent of population size. “So for minke whales in the Southern Ocean one would expect a catch limit of at least hundreds of whales, maybe a couple of thousand,” said Philip Hammond, a marine mammal biologist at Scotland’s University of St. Andrews. Whale populations are stable nowPeter Rejcek, editor of Antarctic Sun, July 25, 2014"Leaping into new territory," Antarctic Sun, (accessed 7/26/2014)Once upon a time – but not so long ago – humpback whales External U.S. government site in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica and elsewhere were heavily exploited, decimating populations before a hunting ban was put into effect in the 1986. Today, this baleen whale species is making a comeback, with estimates from the International Whaling Commission (IWC) External Non-U.S. government site saying that humpbacks are approaching pre-commercial whaling populations. The IWC reports there are at least 60,000 humpbacks in the Southern Hemisphere. Their return as one of the main predators in the polar food web has prompted researchers with the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) External Non-U.S. government site program to add yet another level of sophistication to the National Science Foundation External U.S. government site-funded project.Antarctica: International Cooperation Increasing NowNGOs and parties to Antarctic Treaty are increasing cooperation and coordination nowAntarctic Ocean Alliance, May 8, 2014"Annual Antarctic Treaty meeting Paves Way for Consensus on Marine Protection in Southern Ocean," , (accessed 7/26/2014)As the 2014 Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM), closes today in Brasilia, there is renewed optimism amongst organizations working for marine protection in the Antarctic, after key countries committed to work together in the lead up to this October’s Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) meeting in Hobart. The Antarctic Ocean Alliance attended as part of the delegation of it’s partnering organization, the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition (ASOC), who has recognised NGO status at the ATCM and CCAMLR. Parties to the Antarctic Treaty this week encouraged CCAMLR to continue their fruitful discussions on marine protected areas (MPAs) in the months leading up to their annual meeting, during which two MPA proposals in the Southern Ocean will be considered. Antarctic Ocean Alliance pushing for protections in the status quoAntarctic Ocean Alliance, May 8, 2014"Annual Antarctic Treaty meeting Paves Way for Consensus on Marine Protection in Southern Ocean," , (accessed 7/26/2014)The partners of the Antarctic Ocean Alliance, including The Pew Charitable Trusts, ASOC, WWF, and Greenpeace, are calling on CCAMLR to create the world’s two largest marine protected areas (MPAs) in the Ross Sea and East Antarctica, at the October meeting. CCAMLR is an international organization established under the Antarctic Treaty, which is made up of 24 member countries and the European Union. CCAMLR is responsible for protecting the marine life of Antarctica’s Southern Ocean, and [i] operates by consensus, meaning all 25-member governments must agree in order for conservation measures to be approved. All 25 CCAMLR members had previously committed to establishing a representative system of MPAs in the Southern Ocean by 2012. At a meeting in November 2013, however, they again failed to agree on two MPA proposals for East Antarctica (proposed by Australia, the EU and France), and the Ross Sea (proposed by New Zealand and the United States).Antarctica: Not KeyAntarctic Species Not ThreatenedAntarctic species are resilient; empirically they survive system shocksAustrialian State of the Environment Committee, 2011"Resilience of the Antarctic environment," Independent report to the Australian Government Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, (accessed 7/26/2014)Natural disturbances are part of life in Antarctic ecosystems and the endemic species are generally capable of surviving shock events because they have evolved strategies that allow their populations to rebuild after mass mortalities. Longevity among seabirds, and the ability of plant seeds to survive for long periods and to disperse, are among those strategies.Australia will clean up and remediate impacted areasDepartment of the Environment, Australian Government, April 3, 2012"Human Impacts in Antarctica," Australian Antarctic Division, (accessed 7/25/2014)The main concerns for environmental management are how to ameliorate past environmental impacts and how to reduce current and future impacts. Within the Australian Antarctic program we are developing procedures for the clean-up and remediation of abandoned work sites and disused tip sites. In the early days of Australia's Antarctic program waste management consisted of disposal to open tips and the practice of sea-icing which involved pushing waste onto the sea ice. Sea-iced material would travel out with the ice as it broke up at the beginning of summer to be dispersed among the marine environment. Commitment to the Madrid Protocol confers the obligation to clean-up abandoned work sites and waste tips so long as the process of clean-up does not cause greater adverse impacts or cause the removal of historic sites or monuments. Research is currently underway by Australian scientists to develop cleanup and remediation procedures that will not cause greater impacts. Methods for detecting and monitoring impacts, particularly in the adjacent marine environment are also being developed.Antarctic Species Not ThreatenedEnvironmental auditing, protected areas and impact reduction are all occurring under Australian policyDepartment of the Environment, Australian Government, April 3, 2012"Human Impacts in Antarctica," Australian Antarctic Division, (accessed 7/25/2014)Environmental auditing, compulsory environmental impact assessments, a permitting system and a system of protected areas are among the arsenal of management tools available for reducing current and future impacts of activities in Antarctica. Environmental audits are used to assess our activities. A system of environmental impact assessment is included in the Madrid Protocol (and Australian legislation). The system, adopted by all nations operating in Antarctica, involves a preliminary assessment to determine the scale of impact likely to occur and whether more detailed assessment is necessary. A permit system has also been established to regulate and monitor certain activities such as entry to protected areas and the collection of samples. Treaties ensure preclusive restorationChristopher C. Joyner, Professor of Government at Georgetown University and Guest Investigator, Marine Policy Center, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Fall 1994"Fragile Ecosystems: Preclusive Restoration in the Antarctic," Natural Resources Journal, vol. 34, (accessed 7/26/2014)Preclusive restoration for the Antarctic ecosystem recently culminated in fashioning an agreement for effecting comprehensive environmental protection for the region. As a result, the strategy of preclusive restoration, coupled with the promotion of scientific cooperation and peaceful uses only of the region, became explicit principles driving the evolution of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS).Antarctic Treaty requires international consultation and consensus on development projectsChristopher C. Joyner, Professor of Government at Georgetown University and Guest Investigator, Marine Policy Center, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Fall 1994"Fragile Ecosystems: Preclusive Restoration in the Antarctic," Natural Resources Journal, vol. 34, (accessed 7/26/2014)The Antarctic Treaty also provides that the contracting parties should function as a special decisionmaking group, which has become known as the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties (ATCPs).n Included in this group are those signatory states that have acquired policymaking authority under the Treaty. This group and its legal activities are self-creating, self-implementing and self-administering.Madrid Protocol Solves Environmental Threats in AntarcticaMadrid Protocol protects Antarctic areas of environmental, scientific, historic, aesthetic and wilderness valueDepartment of the Environment, Australian Government, April 3, 2012"Human Impacts in Antarctica," Australian Antarctic Division, (accessed 7/25/2014)The Madrid Protocol established a system for area protection and management, which will be used to protect areas of outstanding environmental, scientific, historic, aesthetic or wilderness value. This system replaces the system of Specially Protected Areas and Sites of Special Scientific Interest previously designated by Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings.Madrid protocol requires environmental impact statements and international cooperation on activitiesKristen M. Fletcher and Tim Wilson, JDs and researchers at Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Legal Program, 1998"Antarctica Treaty Purports to Protect Ocean," Water Log, Vol. 18 no. 1, (accessed 7/25/2014)The Madrid Protocol on the Protection of the Antarctic Environment took effect on February 14. Signed in 1991, it took effect when the 26 member nations ratified it. The Protocol is part of the larger Antarctic Treaty System which was created "to ensure that Antarctica is used for peaceful purposes, for international cooperation in scientific research, and does not become the scene or object of international discord." The Protocol purports to protect the Antarctic Ocean. It provides rules for waste disposal at sea, requires environmental impact statements for proposed activities, designates Antarctica as a natural reserve, and bans mining.International Space Elevator Consortium CPParticipants of the International Space Elevator Consortium should jointly establish an ocean-tethered space elevator.The International Space Elevator Consortium is on the cutting edge of research and design. The CP avoids government pitfalls and ensures a future in spacePatrick J. Kiger, National Geographic staff writer, June 16, 2011, “Escaping Earth: Could a Space Elevator Work?, Inside NGC, , Accessed 7/19/2014Advocates of the space elevator concept continue to gather new research data and to make the case that it’s something we not only could build, but should. The key group is the?International Space Elevator Consortium,?which sponsors an?annual conference?that will be held in August at the Microsoft Conference Center in Richmond, WA.?In an era when government budget woes are endangering rocket-powered space flight, a space elevator might be a way to sustain the space program without arousing the ire of austerity-conscious taxpayers and politicians.?Private sector development of a space elevator is practicalAnnalee Newitz, PhD in English and American Studies from UC Berkeley, May 6, 2013, “The Sixth Mass Extinction Is Upon Us. Can Humans Survive?,” Newsweek, , Accessed 7/22/2014The problem is that we can’t just put our belongings into a cart and hightail it out of Rome, like my ancestors did when things got ugly in the first century C.E. Currently we don’t have a way for people to escape the gravity well of planet earth on a regular basis. The only way to get to space right now is in a rocket, which takes an enormous amount of energy and money—especially if you want to send anything bigger than a mobile phone into orbit. Rockets are useless for the kind of off-world commuter solution we’ll need if we’re going to become an interplanetary civilization, let alone an interstellar one. That’s why an international team of scientists and investors is working on building a 62-mile-high space elevator that would use very little energy to pull travelers out of the gravity well and up to a spaceship dock. It sounds completely preposterous, and yet it is no longer a proposal merely for the sci-fi imagination.Obayashi CPThe Government of Japan will fully support the Obayashi Corporation’s development of a space elevator.The Obayashi Corporation can construct a space elevator by 2050The Japan Times, Staff Writer, February 23, 2012, “Obayashi planning nanotube ‘space elevator’ in 2050,” , Accessed 7/22/2014A space trip using an elevator may come true in 2050, as general contractor Obayashi Corp. is planning to construct a “space elevator” stretching 96,000 km above the ground. While the concept of such an elevator has been described in science fiction novels, the construction has become possible after the 1991 discovery of carbon nanotube, a lightweight material more than 20 times stronger than steel, the company said. Under the plan announced this week, the company will build an orbital station at an altitude of 36,000 km, a final destination for space travelers and housing experimental and development facilities utilizing the space environment.Obayashi can use carbon nanotubes to build a space elevator by 2050Tim Hornyak, Staff Writer, February 24, 2012, “Japan plans snail-paced space elevator for 2050,” CNet, , Accessed 7/22/2014Japanese construction company Obayashi wants to build an elevator to space and transport passengers to a station about a tenth the distance to the moon. The elevator would use super-strong carbon nanotubes in its cables and could be ready as early as 2050, according to Tokyo-based Obayashi. The cables would stretch some 60,000 miles, about a quarter the distance to the moon, and would be attached to Earth at a spaceport anchored to the ocean floor. The other end would dangle a counterweight in space.Obayashi’s experience makes them perfect to build space elevatorsEdvard Glücksman, EGU Science Communications Fellow, March 5, 2012, “Geosciences Column: Promise and challenges of space elevators for tourism,” The European Geosciences Union, , Accessed 7/22/2014Despite the daunting task of overcoming these major practical challenges, Obayashi Corp. remains confident of their ability to deliver humanity’s first space elevator. “We were inspired by the construction of Sky Tree. Our experts on construction, climate, wind patterns, design, they say it’s possible. Humans have long adored high towers. Rather than building it from Earth we will construct it from space,” commented Satomi Katsuyama, the project’s leader,?at a recent press conference.No solvency – Laundry lists of barriersWe should be skeptical of lofty space elevator dreamsDavid Appell, Staff Writer, September 4, 2012,?“Space Elevator Enthusiasts Push On despite Lengthy Time Frames and Long Odds,” Scientific American, , Accessed 7/19/2014Peter Swan, retired from over 40 years building space systems and now serving as ISEC's vice president, calls a space elevator a way to “make the human condition better.” His altruism was shared by many of the conference attendees. But it's not all starry-eyed optimism. “I'm trying to tackle a project that a lot of people think is science fiction,” says Laine, who has gone into foreclosure seven times over nearly a decade to keep his company, and his dream, alive. “It's appropriate to be skeptical, even at this stage.”Even if we solved radiation, there are fundamental barriers to a space elevatorWaddell Robey, eighteen years of aerospace engineering and management experience and thirty plus years in health and human services research, January 31, 2011, “The Space-Elevator Radiation Shielding: Dream or Reality,” Lab Spaces, The_Space_Elevator_Radiation_Shielding__Dream_or_Reality, Accessed 7/19/2014Long before the radiation issue is critical, the overall system must overcome other major hurdles such as safety from space junk, safety from violent Earth weather events, and the proven functional safety of the nanotube ribbon. Additionally, the power systems that support the laser propulsion technology must be powerful enough to also support some form of radiation shielding. Lastly, the entire package must be designed in a compact and weight sensitive manner if the space-elevator is to achieve its 13+ ton cargo/passenger lift capacity.Radiation and instability risks mean we wouldn’t survive multiple threats in the elevatorDaily Kos, Staff Writer, June 5, 2010, “Beyond The Space Elevator: A Glimpse Of Alternative Methods For Space Launch,” , Accessed 7/19/2014Even if you can achieve this, the safety margins in space elevators are appallingly low, with countless threats to their integrity. ?The transit time in the radiation belt is high. ?And recent simulations show that space elevators may likely be dynamically unstable. ?While space elevators are electrically powered, which is quite efficient, they have to transmit that power from the surface to the climbers. ?Small-receiver power beaming is grossly inefficient over the distances involved -- single-digit percent. ?Sadly, I cannot endorse this beautiful concept. ?The one thing I can say in their favor is that, contrary to popular perception, a falling space elevator poses no threat to anyone. ?By their very nature, they must have?extremely?low mass per unit length. ?A space elevator tether falling on you won't hurt any more than a nylon stocking falling on you.No solvency – Current materials are insufficientWe would need to double the tensile strength of current materialsDaily Kos, Staff Writer, June 5, 2010, “Beyond The Space Elevator: A Glimpse Of Alternative Methods For Space Launch,” , Accessed 7/19/2014Unfortunately, space elevators have a number of huge problems. ?The first one is tensile strengh. ?Technically, you can make a space elevator with any tensile strength. ?But to make one?practical, you need a tensile strength of at least 100GPa, and preferably 120GPa or more, with the density of graphite. ?Single-walled carbon nanotubes have been theorized to be that high with that density, but the strongest ones ever measured are barely over 60GPa. ?And these are individual tubes; the strength of bulk fabrics is far lower than that of its component fibers. ?The tubes form ropes held together weakly by pi bonding and van der waals force. ?These are themselves strung together to form fabrics. ?Achieving 10GPa at the density of graphite on a fabric that long would be quite the feat. ?100GPa may ultimately prove to be be physically impossible.No solvency – (CNTs) Carbon nanotubes failDespite research and investment, we can’t use carbon nanotubes for a space elevatorMichael van Baker, Staff Writer, September 6, 2012, “Space Elevator Race Still Waiting for a Super Strong Cable,” The Sun Break, , Accessed 7/19/2014You might think the hard part in inventing a space elevator would be the motor, but in practice the sticking point has turned out to be the cable. At the?2012 Space Elevator Conference?held at Seattle’s?Museum of Flight, the Strong Tether Competition was postponed. The organizers say they weren’t able to give?participants enough time to prepare for the conference, but that there will be a?2013 Strong Tether Challenge. NASA?has been offering a $2-million prize to the person who can “exceed the strength of the best available commercial tether by 50 percent with no increase in mass,” but as of 2011, the competition had gone five years without a winner, despite?incremental advances?being made. In 2009, I?spoke with LaserMotive’s Jordin Kare?about their laser-powered climber’s world-record pace, which netted his team a $900,000 prize, but the climber challenge had ended up using a 4300-foot,?3/16-inch steel cable, held aloft by a helicopter. It was emblematic of the gap in development. Despite all of the hype about the?tensile strength of carbon nanotubes, CNTs have remained frustratingly resistant to being woven together in strength at length, which is what needs to happen if the space elevator is to travel non-nano distances. (It’s enough to make people turn to?boron nitride nanotubes.)We cannot develop carbon nanotubes strong enough for a space elevatorRobert T. Gonzalez, Staff Writer, February 24, 2012, “Why Japan Probably Won't Have a Space Elevator by 2050,” i09, , Accessed 7/22/2014If it sounds a little fanciful, that's because it is... at least, for now. Getting carbon nanotubes into this ribbon configuration is a significant technical hurdle. Translation: we can't do it yet, and it's possible that we never will; for the last five years,?NASA has offered $2 million dollars?to anyone who can come up with a carbon nanotube tether strong enough to bring us significantly closer to making space elevators a reality. The prize money has gone unclaimed. That's not saying it never will, but the challenge may call for a brand new material altogether — maybe even one we haven't discovered yet.Carbon nanotubes aren’t strong enough without massive research breakthroughsRachel Feltman, Staff Writer, March 7, 2013, “Why Don't We Have Space Elevators?,” Popular Mechanics, science/space/nasa/why-dont-we-have-space-elevators-15185070, Accessed 7/19/2014The biggest problem is finding a material strong enough to serve as the elevator's cable. Carbon nanotubes, the most commonly proposed solution, aren't stable enough when used in such great lengths. Keith Henson, engineer and co-founder of the National Space Society,?told io9 in an interview?that the?hexagonal bonds that make carbon nanotubes so strong?would come apart like "a run in a lady's stocking" if laid out for even a fraction of the distance needed. So far, scientists have only produced carbon nanotubes a few inches long and one nanometer wide.?"Carbon nanotubes have a few basic problems," admits Michael Laine, founder of would-be elevator builder?LiftPort. "So you don't just need one breakthrough—you need six."Even if it is the best, carbon nanotubing isn’t strong enoughDavid Horn, ISEC’s Conferences Chair, July 25, 2012, “Space Elevators To The Cosmos: 'Next Stop, Low Earth?Orbit',” Forbes, , Accessed 7/19/2014The biggest technical challenge is the materials science to create long strands of high-strength, light-weight material to construct the ribbon. CNTs are the most promising material. Its high strength-to-weight ratio makes a space elevator technically possible. The challenge is to weave carbon nanotubes into threads, ribbons, and cables and still keep that high ratio. An individual CNT shell has a tensile strength of some 100 Giga-Pascals (GPa); more than enough to build a space elevator that could run 20-ton climbers.No solvency – Space radiation preventsDespite advances, we can’t protect the space elevator from radiationWaddell Robey, eighteen years of aerospace engineering and management experience and thirty plus years in health and human services research, January 31, 2011, “The Space-Elevator Radiation Shielding: Dream or Reality,” Lab Spaces, The_Space_Elevator_Radiation_Shielding__Dream_or_Reality, Accessed 7/19/2014Introduce a topic about space elevators within a group of space travel enthusiasts and you will usually get a variety of reactions from eye-rolls, to snickers, to nods of acceptance and interest. Although there is continuing encouragement, especially from NASA, for design research into the total space elevator concept, there remains several critical areas that pose serious barriers. One of the most important and the most challenging to address is the exposure of the space elevator to intense radiation. Anchored to an ocean platform on the equator and to a geo-synchronous space terminal 100,000 kilometers above the Earth, the space elevator, driven by high-powered lasers, rises along a carbon-nanotubular1?ribbon to its space terminal. Sounds dramatic and fascinating; and it is.All the passengers would die from radiationEdvard Glücksman, EGU Science Communications Fellow, March 5, 2012, “Geosciences Column: Promise and challenges of space elevators for tourism,” The European Geosciences Union, , Accessed 7/22/2014Although the space elevator concept is alluring, the project faces important scientific challenges. For example, without improved protection for travelers, they would be subjected to lethal doses of ionising radiation as they travel through two concentric rings of charged particles surrounding the Earth, known as Van Allen belts. Van Allen belts span a range of?approximately?1,000-20,000 km altitude from Earth’s surface. Therefore, in the proposed space elevator, passengers would spend several days within the belts, exposing them to over 200 times the radiation experienced by the Apollo astronauts. “They would die on the way through the radiation belts if they were unshielded,” said Anders Jorgensen to New Scientist. He is the author of a new study on the subject and a technical staff member at Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico, USA.Van Allen radiation dooms fast travel through a space elevatorWaddell Robey, eighteen years of aerospace engineering and management experience and thirty plus years in health and human services research, January 31, 2011, “The Space-Elevator Radiation Shielding: Dream or Reality,” Lab Spaces, The_Space_Elevator_Radiation_Shielding__Dream_or_Reality, Accessed 7/19/2014In the course of its travel, the space elevator will pass through the Van Allen Belts. The belts are a space travel hazard. It is dangerous when systems and humans are directly exposed to their radiation. This would certainly be the case for the passengers, cargo and the space-elevator itself. Yes, Lunar bound astronauts passed through the belts, but at a speed that sharply reduced the length of time of their exposure. High-speed passage through the belts by the space-elevator is currently not an option. If it were, travel could be like?this description.No solvency – Space radiation preventsLack of shielding and slow rate means everyone would die in the space elevatorKelly Young, Staff Writer, November 13, 2006, “Space elevators: 'First floor, deadly radiation!',” New Scientist, , Accessed 7/22/2014Space elevators are touted as a novel and cheap way to get cargo, and possibly people, into space one day. So far, they have barely left the drawing board, but ultimately robots could climb a cable stretching 100,000 kilometres from Earth's surface into space. But there is a hitch: humans might not survive thanks to the whopping dose of ionising radiation they would receive travelling through the core of the Van Allen radiation belts around Earth. These are two concentric rings of charged particles trapped by Earth's magnetic fields. "They would die on the way through the radiation belts if they were unshielded," says Anders Jorgensen, author of a new study on the subject and a technical staff member at Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico, US. Space elevators had been planned to be anchored on an ocean platform near the equator, with the other end tied to a counterweight in space. At the equator, the most dangerous part of the radiation belts extends from about 1000 to 20,000 kilometres in altitude. The region did not hurt the Apollo astronauts in the 1960s and 1970s because their rockets delivered them swiftly through it. For a space elevator travelling at the current proposed speed of 200 kilometres per hour, however, passengers might spend half a week in the belts. That would hit them with 200 times the radiation experienced by the Apollo astronauts.No solvency – Space debris preventsSpace debris is a major barrier to the space elevatorRachel Feltman, Staff Writer, March 7, 2013, “Why Don't We Have Space Elevators?,” Popular Mechanics, science/space/nasa/why-dont-we-have-space-elevators-15185070, Accessed 7/19/2014However, Clarke also pointed to difficulties ahead. “I don’t quite know how we’re going to solve the issue of space debris. That’s going to be a major problem in making the space elevator practical,” he advised. With so much orbiting clutter, including spent rocket stages, dead or dying satellites, zipping around Earth all the way up to stationary orbit, damage to the space elevator is a worry, Clarke said.We’d have to clean up all space debris before the elevatorGeorge Dvorsky, Chair of the Board for the?Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies?(IEET), February 15, 2013, “Why we'll probably never build a space elevator,” iO9, , Accessed 7/19/2014There's also the hazardous stuff in orbit to consider. "Even if you solve those problems you still have another problem to deal with — and that's all the space junk and active satellites," says Henson. "You've got to find it all and clean it up — and then you have to install dodging capabilities in all the existing satellites, except for the ones in geosynchronous orbit." Henson says violent impacts with the cable would be a regular occurrence, and that most satellites and junk would be fast enough to "vaporize six or eight feet of the elevator." Creating satellites with dodging capabilities is not a big problem, he says, it's just that every pre-existing one would have to be retired or re-configured. "But you've got to clean all the old junk out as well because you can't move the cable around in any practical sense of the term — and there's 6,000 tons of junk up there," he says.No solvency – Terrorists would attack the elevatorSpace elevators would be prime targets for terroristsGeorge Dvorsky, Chair of the Board for the?Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies?(IEET), February 15, 2013, “Why we'll probably never build a space elevator,” iO9, , Accessed 7/19/2014There are non-technical aspects to consider as well. While these are not deal-breakers per se, they do present challenges for the planning and eventual construction of a space elevator. It's quite possible, for example, that a space elevator could be the target of a terrorist attack. A successful operation would be extremely costly and result in tremendous damage. Defense measures and 24/7 surveillance would likely have to run in tandem with each elevator.Terrorist attacks on the space elevator are inevitableRachel Feltman, Staff Writer, March 7, 2013, “Why Don't We Have Space Elevators?,” Popular Mechanics, science/space/nasa/why-dont-we-have-space-elevators-15185070, Accessed 7/19/2014There is also concern, Clarke added, that the heavenly elevator is sure to become a target for terrorism. “We need to remove economic and other grudges. But, of course, you could never cope with total lunatics that could do anything.” Although he advocates keeping the lawyers out of space, part of making the elevator reality is hammering out international agreements to utilize the facility for the benefit of all, Clarke said, “and the sooner the better.”Oil Supply in Bad Shape - AffYes—Price Spikes Coming Price spiking now because of oil speculationBernie Sanders, US Senator from Vermont, June 26, 2014, “Senators Call for Emergency Action to Stop Price Spikes Caused by Oil Speculators”, Accessed July 20, 2014, . Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) today introduced legislation cosponsored by 14 senators to give federal regulators emergency power to stop speculators from taking advantage of turmoil in Iraq to drive up oil prices and make motorists pay more for gasoline. “I am getting tired of big oil companies and Wall Street speculators using Iraq as an excuse to pump up oil and gas prices,” said Sanders, a member of the Senate energy committee. “The fact is that high gasoline prices have less to do with supply and demand and more to do with Wall Street speculators driving prices up in the energy futures market.” Wall Street has pushed up the price of crude oil by more than 5 percent since June 12, when militants attacked and took control of several Iraqi cities. In the longer term, oil prices rose 53 percent since 2009. While developments in Iraq have had no impact on the supply of gasoline in the United States today, gas is more expensive now than it’s been in six years at the beginning of the summer driving season, according to AAA. The increase has occurred despite the fact that the supply of gasoline is 4.3 percent higher and demand is 1 percent lower than it was five years ago, when national gas prices averaged $2.69 a gallon. Yes—Price Spikes Coming Price spikes coming—Iraq instability and supply vulnerability Ken Blackwell, former Secretary of State in Ohio, is the Senior Fellow for Family Empowerment at the Family Research Council. He serves on the board of directors of the Club for Growth and the National Taxpayers Union, June 23, 2014, “Iraq Crisis: Latest Sign of U.S. Vulnerability to Oil Price Spikes”, Accessed July 20, 2014 ongoing conflict in Iraq has serious implications for vital U.S. interests, the extent of which are difficult to decipher at this early stage. Who ends up holding the keys to power within Iraqi territory? What happens to the regional balance of power? How will Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons-and our efforts to stop them-be affected? One immediate effect of the turmoil, however, is painfully obvious: oil prices have already hit a nine-month high. Brent crude reached $115 per barrel this week, a level our country has not experienced since the height of U.S. tensions with Syria in September 2013. As a result, a number of market analysts now expect U.S. gasoline prices to surpass their highest levels for the month of June since 2008, rising from today's level of $3.68 per gallon to as much as $3.80 per gallon by the end of the month. If that were not troubling enough, Iraq's vital importance to the global oil market could mean that today's rising prices may be just the beginning. Markets are already reeling from a series of oil production outages in countries across the globe-from Nigeria, Libya, and South Sudan to Iraq, Iran, and Syria. Any additional loss of supplies from Iraq could stress the system to its limit and send oil prices to levels that many of America's political leaders had hoped were a thing of the past. A recent analysis by the Commission on Energy and Geopolitics, a group of former high-ranking military and civilian government officials, found that a partial disruption to Iraq's oil supplies-1 mbd, or about a third of Iraq's current production-would cause oil prices to rise by more than $30 per barrel, amounting to an approximate 50 cent per gallon increase at the pump for American consumers. With the United States consuming close to 20 million barrels of oil per day, it doesn't take a trained economist to understand that we would take a serious economic hit.Yes—Price Spikes Coming Long term trends are up—price spikes coming SAFE (Securing America’s Energy Future), is an action-oriented, nonpartisan organization dedicated to reducing America’s dependence on oil by educating policymakers and advocating for comprehensive energy reform, Accessed July 20, 2014, “Further Social and Political Fragmentation and Descent into Civil War in Iraq Could Send Global Oil Prices Skyrocketing”, Accessed July 20, 2014, situation in Iraq has deteriorated rapidly over the past week, with significant implications for regional security and oil markets. Sunni militants aligned with former Baathist elements and tribal groups have captured major portions of Iraq’s north and west over the past month, culminating in the fall of Mosul last week. Though the militants’ progress toward Baghdad has slowed, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) continues to capture new territory in the north, solidifying its gains. In Iraq’s Shia south, militias have formed to augment government forces in preserving security. Meanwhile, Iraqi government forces have ceded significant control over the Kurdish autonomous region, raising the specter that the country is dividing into three homogenous political units. Near term oil market implications are potentially serious. Crude exports from Iraq’s Kurdish north, which were as high as 460,000 barrels per day in 2009, were effectively ceased on March 2, contributing to total global oil supply outages of 3 million barrels per day (mbd). Nearly 100 percent of Iraq’s 2.5 mbd of crude exports currently exit the country through its southern oil complex centered on Basra. While the predominantly Shia south has remained relatively secure, political disintegration in Iraq along sectarian lines would add to the current oil price risk premium and the potential for significant upside would remain. Any meaningful disruption to Iraqi crude exports would lead to a sharp elevation in oil prices. OPEC spare production capacity currently stands at just 2 mbd, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), with the bulk concentrated in Saudi Arabia. While this buffer could replace a portion of lost Iraqi exports, this must be placed in context. Numerous global market forecasts suggest that OPEC—principally Saudi Arabia—will already have to pump an additional 900,000 barrels per day in Q3 2014 versus April levels to meet rising global demand. Therefore, the loss of even one third of total Iraqi production—1 mbd—would essentially eliminate global spare production capacity. In that event, oil prices would likely reach or exceed the highs reached in July 2008. This is consistent with prior work by SAFE and the Commission on Energy and Geopolitics, which found that the loss of 1 mbd of Iraqi oil supplies in 2014 would generate an oil price increase of $37 per barrel relative to the base case. Longer-term market implications are potentially more concerning. It is difficult to overstate the importance of Iraq to the long term outlook for oil markets. In its baseline scenarios, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts Iraqi crude oil production to grow from 3.3 mbd in 2014, reaching nearly 6 mbd by 2020 and nearly 8 mbd by 2035. Between today and 2020, the IEA expects Iraq to account for 60 percent of the increase in OPEC crude oil production capacity. After 2020, Iraq accounts for the majority of oil production growth within OPEC, is the major driver of crude oil production growth globally, and is effectively a necessary component to meeting rising global demand growth in an even modestly cost-effective way.Yes—Supply Declining NowGlobal oil supply is declining , is the optimal, one-stop global financial resource for traders and investors. The web portal provides streaming, real-time data and financial analytics related to currencies, commodities, bonds and stocks, July 9, 2014, “U.S. oil trades near 1-month low ahead of weekly supply data”, Accessed July 21, 2014, Texas Intermediate oil futures were little changed near a one-month low on Wednesday, as investors awaited the release of weekly supply data out of the U.S. later in the session to gauge the strength of oil demand from the world's largest consumer. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in August dipped 0.01%, or 1 cent, to trade at $103.39 a barrel during European morning hours. Futures held in a tight range between $103.30 and $103.59 a barrel. U.S. oil futures fell to $103.01 a barrel on Tuesday, the lowest since June 9, before trimming losses to settle at $103.40, down 0.13%, or 13 cents. New York-traded oil futures were likely to find support at $101.89 a barrel, the low from June 9 and resistance at $105.53 a barrel, the high from July 2. Wednesday's government report was expected to show that U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by 2.2 million barrels last week, while gasoline stockpiles were forecast to decline by 0.3 million barrels. After markets closed Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said that U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended July 4, compared to expectations for a decline of 3.0 million barrels.Yes—Supply Declining NowUS Oil supply decreasing now—impacts future supply and prices Mark Shenk, writer for Bloomberg News, May 21, 2014, “WTI Oil Falls on Ample U.S. Crude Supply”, Accessed July 21, 2014, Texas Intermediate crude rose to a one-month high after an industry report showed U.S. stockpiles tumbled last week. Brent oil increased on unrest in Libya. Futures advanced as much as 0.9 percent in New York. Crude supplies dropped by 10.3 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute reported yesterday. A government report today will probably show inventories were unchanged near a record high, according to a Bloomberg survey. The U.S. moved a Marine contingent to Italy yesterday to prepare for the possible evacuation of American personnel from Libya. “The 10 million-barrel draw caught us by surprise,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “If we get confirmation of the API data from today’s report, prices are headed higher and we’ll probably be testing the year’s highs before long.”Yes—Supply Declining NowGlobal demand for oil will increase but supply can’t keep upPost Carbon Institute, provides individuals, communities, businesses, and governments with the resources needed to understand and respond to the interrelated economic, energy, environmental, and equity crises that define the 21st century. We envision a world of resilient communities and re-localized economies that thrive within ecological bounds, July 2, 2014, “The Peak Oil Crisis: Iraq on the Precipice”, Accessed July 21, 2014, in mind that global demand for oil has recently been increasing at a rate of about 1.2 million b/d or so every year, while depletion of existing oilfields requires that another 3-4 million b/d be brought into production each year just to keep even. Many people, including government forecasters, are looking to increasing U.S. shale oil production and more deepwater oil from the Gulf of Mexico to keep the world’s supply and demand in balance without sharp price increases. Somewhere down the line there may be more oil produced from the Arctic; from Kazakhstan; from off the coast of Brazil; from East Africa; and even significant shale oil production from other than in the U.S. But it will be many years before these new sources can start producing significant amounts of crude, and none of these are likely to make up for any shortages that develop in the next few years.Yes—Supply Declining NowPeak oil is a reality—production cannot keep up with demand. Prices will spike , a strictly non-commercial & non-affiliated news aggregation and a message-board social networking news site, July 14, 2014, “Oil Abundance? Not So Fast – Drilling holes in the energy boom story”, Accessed July 21, 2014, key question about oil is whether we will have enough oil available at prices that will allow us to operate and grow the economy and society. We will never run out of oil, but rather soon the rate of extraction of oil priced to support prosperity will decline, and the energy profit we enjoy will shrink from current levels. “Peak Oil” will occur when society is using – or the nations of the earth are extracting – oil at the highest rate ever, and at a higher rate than can be sustained in the future. High prices can have an impact on the economy even before the “peak” is reached, and the “peak” is likely to look more like a plateau than a sharp rise and decline. For “peak oil” to be “dead,” as some optimists claim, the supply of affordable oil would have to continue to grow for decades to come. The following section outlines why we think that is unlikely. Yes—Dependent NowAmerica is not oil independent—lowering trends in imports don’t solve dependency Adm. Dennis C. Blair, a former director of National Intelligence and former commander in chief of the United States Pacific Command, and Gen. Michael W. Hagee, the 33rd commandant of the United States Marine Corps, serve as co-chairmen of the Commission on Energy and Geopolitics, a project of Securing America’s Future Energy, February 25, 2014, “Tempering Oil Dependence”, Accessed July 20, 2014, , America’s energy landscape again appears abundant. Improved production technologies have unlocked vast sources of domestic oil. American crude production is projected to approach a historical record as soon as 2015, and net liquid fuel imports are expected to account for less than 30 percent of American oil supplies this year, down from nearly 60 percent in 2008. This dramatic turnaround has led many to suggest that the era of oil insecurity is over. Don’t be fooled: Despite advances in energy and automotive technologies, we remain as vulnerable as ever. Since 1973, our transportation sector’s reliance on oil has dropped by just 3 percent, to 93 percent from 96 percent. Unless we act, 90 percent of our transportation will remain oil-dependent through 2030, according to the Department of Energy. And we must expect interruptions to global oil supplies, oil-price spikes and market manipulation by OPEC. If America is to remain prosperous and secure in the 21st century, we must make significant progress toward ending our oil dependence. Improvements in fuel economy are a valuable move in the right direction, and President Obama’s announcement of tougher rules for trucks last week should be applauded. But efficiency alone is not enough. We need fuel diversity in the transportation sector to shield our economy from swings in global oil prices.Yes—Dependent NowUS dependent now—importing too much oil Daniel Mills, writer for Economy in Crisis—a non-profit organization dedicated to restoring America’s industrial base, June 25, 2014, “We Must End Our Dependence on Foreign Oil”, Accessed July 20, 2014, turmoil continues in Iraq with rebel groups taking over significant portions of the country, gas prices are on the rise again. Oil has again topped over $114 a barrel and could climb higher. Iraq is one of the countries we receive a significant portion of our oil supply from. This instability in Iraq has continued for some time now which is why gasoline prices have increased from $3.24 a gallon to $3.63 in the last few months. The U.S. imports over 8 million barrels of oil a day to fulfill our needs. This increases our trade deficit and sends jobs overseas. This continues our dependence on foreign producers to keep us going which makes us weaker. We must decrease our dependence on foreign oil in order to restore America.Yes—Dependent Now US dependent now—hooked on foreign oil for decades Don Briggs, president of the Louisiana Oil & Gas Association, July 19, 2014, “Briggs: Support oil and gas, bolster U.S. security”, Accessed July 20, 2014, independence is the popular talk at the water cooler. However, it is vital to understand that energy independence walks hand and hand with energy security. It is a marriage that is a necessity for the future of the United States’ national security. Why does the current instability in Iraq cause our gas prices to jump? Why should anything going on in Libya affect the United States energy market? One simple reason: The United States has been dependent on foreign resources for several decades. Our dependence has not been on just any ol’ country. Specifically, we have been dependent on the Organization of Exporting Countries for our yearly imports of petroleum. To be more specific, the latest data from the United States Energy Information Administration shows that we imported 5.83 million barrels of petroleum a day from OPEC countries — or 55 percent of our net imports for 2012. This fact quickly answers the previous question of why our market is disrupted by Middle Eastern instability.Yes—Dependency Bad—Anti-American RegimesUS dependency on oil fuels anti American regimes Amy Klobuchar, US Senator from Minnesota, Accessed July 21, 2014, “National Security”, Accessed July 21, 2014, our dependence on foreign oil. Our national security is held hostage by oil-producing nations whose policies and objectives often diverge from our own. Fostering stable and sustainable homegrown energy sources has great potential to increase our national security. Our energy agenda should include expanded incentives for biofuels, wind power, solar, and other sources of renewable energy, as well as domestic drilling, natural gas, hydropower, nuclear, geothermal, and waste-to-energy technology. Minnesotans know that the renewable fuels industry creates good jobs and strengthens our economy, in addition to reducing our dependence on foreign oil. We should be investing in the farmers and workers of the Midwest, not the oil cartels of the Middle East.Yes—Dependency Bad—Anti-American Regimes/ TerrorismUS dependence on foreign oil fuels anti-American regimes and terrorism Salomon Rayek, former executive editor of the Jewish Tribune, July 3, 2014, “Foreign money fuels oil opposition”, Accessed July 21, 2014, ’s oil reserves are estimated to be larger than all those of the Middle East. Therefore, it is in the best interest of OPEC countries that Canada not extract or export its oil. OPEC dictates oil prices worldwide. Its best allies are well-intentioned environmental troublemakers, who are naive and easily indoctrinated – the same people Lenin used to call “useful idiots,” referring to Communist sympathizers who used to make trouble in the West on behalf of the U.S.S.R. That is why the international community has demonized the oilsands. As an example, Rev. Desmond Tutu went to Alberta to lecture Canadians about the oilsands. Who does he think he is? Ironically, you would expect a social rights activist like him, an ordained minister, to fight the persecution of Christians and torture of women in oil-exporting countries like Saudi Arabia or Iran. Why don’t people lecture Arab countries about their oil money? Simple: it is easier, more comfortable, safer and trendier to lecture Canadians. A lot of money has been funnelled from the Middle East to the U.S. to pressure Obama to stop the XL pipeline. The pipeline would end U.S. dependence on oil from dictatorships. Oil prices would drop, cutting in half the revenue of countries that threaten the West with terrorism. As a bonus, it would create many well-paid jobs the U.S. needs.Yes—Dependency Bad—Environment/ Climate ChanageUS oil dependency hurts the environment—encourages more fossil fuel usage which causes climate change Arkansas Matters, Arkansas news/ media outlet, February17, 2014, “Environmental groups say new fuel economy standards will reduce US oil dependence and air pollution”, Accessed July 21, 2014, groups praised the change as much needed to curb climate change and an effective way to reduce American oil dependence. A sampling of their statements, with details about the new standards, below: The American College and University Presidents Climate Commitment “The signatory Presidents of the American College and University Presidents Climate Commitment (ACUPCC) welcomed the action today by the federal government to establish new fuel efficiency standards for model years 2017 to 2025, ” said Tim White, chancellor of the University of California, Riverside, and chair of the Steering Committee of the ACUPCC. “More than 650 college university presidents have worked together for the last five years to help craft solutions to counteract the unprecedented scale and speed of global warming and its potential for large-scale, adverse health, social, economic and ecological effects. They recognize the scientific consensus that global warming is real and is largely caused by humans. And they recognize the need to reduce the global emission of greenhouse gases by 80% by mid-century at the latest, in order to avert the worst impacts of global warming. “Sound national policy, based on the best science, is essential to the cost-effective reduction of human caused greenhouse gases — the dominant cause of the climate change we have experienced over the last 50 years. This action makes it far easier for the colleges and universities of the ACUPCC to meet their commitments to achieve climate neutrality. “This action is based on both sound science and common sense, as well as good economics. For example, schools will save about $8000 in fuel costs over the life of every vehicle purchased beginning in 2025. ”Yes—Impact to Oil Shocks—Economy Oil shocks wreck the stock market and crush American wealth reserves—negative relation with economic wellbeing Abderrazak Dhaoui, PhD economics University of Reims Champagne Ardenne, and Naceur Khraief, professor at Université de Nice-Sophia Antipolis, March 20, 2014, “Empirical Linkage between Oil Price and Stock Market Returns and Volatility: Evidence from International Developed Markets”, Accessed July 21, 2014, pdf online The relation between oil price changes and macroeconomic factors has received considerable attention over the period starting the tremendous oil crisis of 1973. In recent years, researchers have attached more specifically a great deal of attention to the connections between oil price shocks on stock market returns. This paper investigates whether oil prices impact returns and volatility. Using monthly data for eight international stock markets over the period starting in January 1991 to end in September 2013, we estimate an EGARCH-in-M model to supervise in addition to the effects of oil price on returns the asymmetry in stockprice behaviour. We find that stock market return and oil price are negatively correlated whereas the oil price changes increase the volatility of returns. Indirect effects of the oil price changes on stock returns and volatility are supervised by introducing industrial production and short-term interest rates. Findings based on our model support direct and indirect oil price effects on stock markets returns and their volatility with some differences in significance. Our results confirm those found in previous studies such as those of Jones and Kaul (1996), Sadorsky (1999), Huang et al. (1996), El-Sharif et al. (2005), Naifar and Al Dohaiman (2013), and Chang and Yu (2013). The explanation of the negative connections between oil price shocks and the stock returns and the positive effects on the volatility is intuitive. Since oil constitutes a substantial input for many industries, the increase in oil price leads to economic crises by creating significant cost-push inflation and higher unemployment. Consequently a rise in oil prices acts as inflation tax and increases risk and uncertainty, and this affects seriously the stock price and reduce wealth.Yes—Impact to Oil Shocks—Economy Oil shocks could devastate the US economy—too much wealth invested Kshitija Bhandaru, economic analyst and writer for Market Realist, July 17, 2014, “Why it’s important for the US to reduce imported oil dependency”, Accessed July 21, 2014, of the major reasons driving fuel economy standards is less dependency on petroleum imported from other countries. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (or DOE), nearly 40% of the oil consumed in the U.S. is imported, costing ~$300 billion annually. Additionally, according to the U.S. Energy Security Council, oil imports constitute half of the U.S. trade deficit. Better fuel economy will cut down this dependency to an extent, and help the U.S. reduce the impact of oil price shocks and cartel market control—mostly by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (or OPEC). Oil price shocks may have serious economic consequences on the U.S. as significant amounts of U.S. wealth is transferred to oil exporters. This holds true in the light of the recent crisis and disruptions of oil supply in the Middle East. It demonstrates the importance of relying less on foreign oil.Oil Supply in Good Shape - NegNo—Price Spikes Not Coming—OPEC Regulates Price spikes are short term—OPEC steps in to decrease price/ supply strain Sam Ro, editor of Money Game.? He has been published on Forbes, DealBreaker, and The Fiscal Times.? He was the senior equity analyst for the Forbes Special Situation Survey and Forbes Growth Investor equity newsletters, July 17, 2014, “Oil Prices Are Up After The US Sanctions The World's Largest Publicly-Traded Oil Company”, Accessed July 20, 2014, crude is up 1.0% to $102.19/barrel and Brent crude is up 0.6% to $107.81/barrel. The moves come in the wake of new U.S. sanctions against Russian financial and energy firms including Rosneft, the world's largest publicly-traded oil company. Rosneft produces 4.2 million barrels of oil per day. Energy experts seem to agree that the sanctions really aren't that big of a deal. “OPEC will step up and export more to replace the lost Russian crude and calm these oil-price spikes,” said Nomura's Gordon Kwan via Bloomberg. “The U.S. and EU are smart enough not to risk derailing the global economic recovery by choking off Russia’s oil exports.” That seems obvious. No one wants to shoot themselves in the foot. "OPEC’s spare capacity is estimated at 3.25 million barrels a day, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report on July 11," reported Bloomberg's Ben Sharples. "Russia exported about 6.14 million barrels a day of crude in May, said the Paris-based agency, an adviser to developed nations. Commercial oil inventories held by members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development rose by 44.2 million barrels in May to 2.639 billion, its report shows."No—Price Spikes Not Coming—Temporary Oil shocks are temporary—part of the ebb and flow of a globally traded commodity. No long term spike coming Sarah Gordon and Jane Wild in London, writers for Financial Times economic publication, June 22, 2014, “Oil price volatility hits European airlines”, Accessed July 21, 2014, analysts estimate that a $5 a barrel increase in the spot crude price will reduce operating profits for European airlines this year by between 1 and 52 per cent. Norwegian Air Shuttle, Europe’s third-largest low-cost carrier after Ryanair and easyJet, does not hedge any of its fuel requirements. Ryanair dismissed the prospects of a long-term rise in oil prices on Friday. “This short-term thing happens all the time,” said Howard Millar, chief financial officer. “It was Ukraine, now it’s Iraq, it will be something else. Every week that goes by in the fuel markets there is an event, this is just one in a long sequence.”No—Price Spikes Not Coming—A/T Iraq Iraq won’t cause long term price spike—not important to global supply or price Arjun Sreekumar, writer for The Motley Fool—a firm that helps investors understand their options. Named best medium sized business to work for in 2014, July 8, 2014, “Big Oil Shareholders Shouldn't Worry About Operations in Iraq?”, Accessed July 21, 2014, the long term, however, continued violence that leads to a deterioration in Iraq's security situation could prompt Exxon, BP, and Occidental to exit the country. Indeed, Occidental has been marketing a 40% stake in its Middle East/North Africa (MENA) assets, which includes its Iraq operations, since last year to reduce its exposure to geopolitical risk and focus on west Texas' Permian Basin -- its most profitable operation. Another potential threat Moody's identifies is a regime change that could result in the voiding of existing contracts between the Western oil companies and Iraqi officials. Such a move would jeopardize Iraq's oil production growth prospects and likely result in a higher long-term Brent price since oil price stability is largely predicated upon Iraqi volumes growing at a rapid pace over the rest of the decade. Investor takeaway Overall, Exxon, BP, and Oxy shareholders needn't worry too much about their exposure to Iraq, which is relatively insignificant in terms of production and even less significant in terms of earnings. Further, a deterioration in Iraq's security situation that hampers its long-term production growth probably wouldn't be so bad since it would keep crude oil prices elevated, boosting these companies' oil revenues and earnings.No—Not Dependent NowUS oil dependence decreasing now—domestic efforts lower degree and impact of dependence Jason Furman, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, & Gene Sperling, the Director of the National Economic Council, August 29, 2013, “Reducing America’s Dependence on Foreign Oil As a Strategy to Increase Economic Growth and Reduce Economic Vulnerability”, Accessed July 20, 2014, are three basic elements to achieving this goal: Increasing domestic production of oil. Government funded research supplemented private industry’s work to develop the technology that sparked the boom in oil and gas production. Crude oil production has grown each year the President has been in office to its highest level in 17 years in 2012 (see chart above). In fact, over the past four years, domestic oil supply growth has accounted for over one-third of global oil production growth. Developing substitutes for oil. This includes almost doubling the production of biofuels since 2007 – to a near all-time high – and the substitution as a transportation fuel of oil with natural gas, production of which increased by 25% to an all-time high in 2012. Increase energy efficiency to reduce the use of oil overall. With a combination of the stronger fuel efficiency standards and investments in cutting edge technologies, we currently have the most fuel efficient light-duty vehicle fleet ever, and we are working to increase the efficiency of the medium- and heavy-duty fleet as well. As a result of these changes, in 2012, net petroleum imports had fallen by one-third since 2008 to the lowest level in 20 years. And imports are continuing to fall this year as well. We will shortly be at the point where domestic crude oil production exceeds imports on a sustained basis for the first time since the early 1990s. The increased domestic supply combined with increased oil efficiency of the economy reduces vulnerability to global supply disruptions and price shocks, enhancing our national security.No—Not Dependent NowUS dependency on foreign oil is decreasing now—US production increases have lessened our reliance on foreign oil The OTC Journal Newsletter, is an electronic publication committed to providing our readers with useful information on publicly traded companies, Accessed July 21, 2014, “Drill Baby Drill Calms Oil Markets”, Accessed July 21, 2014, call it Geopolitical Risk in the stock market. That's a fancy way of saying some isolated terrorism incident or conflict related event in the Middle East could disrupt the markets- especially the oil markets, causing oil prices to rise and equity markets to fall. Of late, we've had the potential for major disruptions of global oil supplies. Iraq is now mired in a nasty civil war. Oil refineries are burning. Iraq is the 7th largest oil producing nation, accounting of 3.4 million barrels per day, or 3.75% of the world's production in 2013. You might ask who's first? One would automatically think Saudi Arabia- but not so. Russia is the #1 oil producing nation in the world, delivering 10.9 million barrels or 13.5% of the world's daily needs. So- isn't it great Russia is so stable? But wait- isn't there a lot of violence and turmoil in Russia of late with Russian military intervention in the Ukraine? If this were 5 years ago, I believe oil prices would be screaming up the charts. However, Friday's close on West Texas Crude was about $107. With all the turmoil in Global oil producing nations, I would expect oil to be $130 to $140. So, why are prices so less sensitive to Geopolitical Risk? I believe the answer is simple- it's America's new found leadership in oil production. The US is now the 3rd largest producer of oil in the world. We produce about 8.5 million barrels per day, which represents about 10% of the world's needs. And, while we consume about 18 million barrels per day, our production is every growing thanks to high prices and the new fracking technologies. As the US's dependence on foreign oil diminishes each and every year, so does the propensity for volatility with all this nasty geopolitical turmoil. Here's the point- Drill Baby Drill is working. It's diminishing our dependence on foreign oil, and thereby taking a lot of the volatility out of the equation.No—Not Dependent NowUS oil dependency is declining now—fracking lets us get more oil out of the ground Paul Davidson, writer for USA TODAY new outlet, February 9, 2014, “U.S. may be inching toward oil independence”, Accessed July 21, 2014, . oil imports are down 17% since 2010, helping narrow the trade deficit. U.S. oil imports fell sharply again in 2013 while petroleum exports rose, leading some analysts to proclaim that a new era of energy independence is just a few years away. Experts largely credit new drilling techniques that have unearthed vast troves of previously inaccessible oil embedded in shale deposits in states such as North Dakota and Texas. "We're at the beginning of a long upswing," says Citigroup analyst Eric Lee. Crude oil imports declined 9% last year to 2.8 billion barrels, lowest since 1995, and are down 17% since 2010, according to the Census Bureau. Meanwhile, exports, mostly of refined gasoline and diesel, rose about 11%, narrowing the country's petroleum deficit by about $59 billion, or 20%, to $233 billion. Lee attributes the exports' increase to the abundance of U.S. oil and reduced U.S. consumption as fuel-efficient vehicles proliferate. The shrinking petroleum gap was almost entirely responsible for a $63 billion decline in the nation's overall trade deficit last year to $471.5 billion, the lowest since 2009, Census said.No—Dependency Impact DefenseUS oil dependency being a threat to national security is a myth—not dependent now and OPEC doesn’t use oil as a weapon John Kaufmann,was energy specialist and policy analyst for 30 years with the Oregon Department of Energy. His career also included stints with the Scientists' Institute for Public Information and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. He continues to write and speak on energy and climate issues. John is a Fellow of Post Carbon Institute, April 29, 2014, “The Energy Independence Illusion”, Accessed July 21, 2014, , let’s look at foreign policy and national security. The argument is that energy independence will ensure that our national security is not jeopardized by oil price or supply problems emanating from abroad. It will also allow us more flexibility in foreign policy, especially in the Middle East. OPEC hasn’t used oil as a political weapon in 35 years. They apparently recognize that embargoes and price spikes hurt them as well as importing nations. That’s not to say something couldn’t happen. The Gulf monarchies are aging and autocratic, and face upheaval sooner or later. If they are replaced by anti-Western radicals, world oil security will be destabilized and/or threatened. However, this is a danger to the world, not just to the US. We prop up the Gulf monarchies. That may be distasteful, and one may wish it weren’t so. But if we withdrew, the alternative could easily be worse – not only for western energy security, but for terrorism, peace and stability around the region and beyond, and perhaps even for the prosperity of the region and hopes for democracy. It’s a case of damned if we do, damned if we don’t. Second, the U.S. is relatively energy independent already. We are self-sufficient in coal and mostly self-sufficient in natural gas (we import about 15 percent of our natural gas from Canada). We do import about half of our oil – but our major suppliers are Canada and Mexico. Only a small portion is from the Middle East.No—Dependency Impact DefenseUS is using less oil because of enforced efficiency standards—checks impact to dependency Kshitija Bhandaru, writer for Yahoo Finance, July 18, 2014, “Overview: US fuel economy standards reduce foreign oil dependence”, Accessed July 20, 2014, Environmental Protection Agency (or EPA) and the Department of Transportation (or DOT) have established a National Program that further enhances the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (or CAFE) standards and consists of new standards for light-duty vehicles that will help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve fuel economy. Automobile companies that need to follow these standards include Ford Motors (F), General Motors (GM), Honda Motors (HMC), and Tata Motors (TTM). It’s important to note that most of these companies are a part of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS). This program applies to light duty cars and trucks in two phases—model year 2012–2016 and model year 2017–2025. The first phase was effective from July, 2010. It was targeted to result in ~960 million metric tons of total carbon dioxide (or CO2) emissions reduction and ~1.8 billion barrels of oil savings over the lifetime of vehicles sold in model years (or MY) 2012–2016. It’s important to note that according to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (or NHTSA) estimates, MY 2011 standards would have required fuel economy levels of 30.4 miles per gallon (or mpg) for passenger cars, 24.4 mpg for light trucks, and 27.6 mpg for the combined fleet. The previous chart provides average required fuel economy under CAFE standards for MY 2012–2016. The overall average CAFE level is expected to be 34.1 mpg in MY 2016. These standards represent a 4.3% average annual rate of increase relative to the MY 2011 standards. In August, 2012, the EPA and NHTSA extended the national program further. They raised fuel economy standards for MY 2017–2025. This second phase of the program is projected to save approximately four billion barrels of oil and two billion metric tons of greenhouse gas (or GHG) emissions, with net benefits up to $451 billion. These savings and reductions come on top of those that are being achieved through the MYs 2012–2016 standards.No—Dependency Impact DefenseUS doesn’t have a dependency problem—we produce most of our own energy. Reduction in oil imports won’t make America more independent or secure Gal Luft & Anne Korin, co-directors of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, October 15, 2013, “The Myth of U.S. Energy Dependence”, Accessed July 20, 2014, first U.S. energy secretary, James Schlesinger, observed in 1977 that when it comes to energy, the United States has “only two modes -- complacency and panic.” Today, with the country in the middle of an oil and gas boom that could one day crown it the world’s largest oil producer, the pendulum has swung toward complacency. But 40 years ago this week, panic ruled the day, as petroleum prices quadrupled in a matter of months and Americans endured a traumatic gasoline shortage, waiting for hours in long lines only to be greeted by signs reading “Sorry, no gas.” The cause of these ills, Americans explained to themselves, was the Arab oil embargo -- the decision by Iran and the Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut off oil exports to the United States and its allies as punishment for their support of Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. And the lessons they drew were far-reaching. The fear that, at any given moment, the United States’ oil supply could be interrupted by a foreign country convinced Washington that its entire approach to energy security should center on one goal: reducing oil imports from that volatile region. But Americans were wrong on both counts. The embargo itself was not the root cause of the energy crisis. Contrary to popular belief, the United States has never really been dependent on the Middle East for its supply of oil -- today only nine percent of the U.S. oil supply comes from the region. At no point in history did that figure surpass 15 percent. Rather, the crux of the United States’ energy vulnerability was its inability to keep the price of oil under control, given the Arab oil kingdoms’ stranglehold on the global petroleum supply. Nonetheless, for the last four decades, Washington’s energy policy has been based on the faulty conclusion that the country could solve all its energy woes by reducing its reliance on Middle Eastern oil.No—Dependency Impact DefenseThere is no such thing as US oil dependence—the price of oil is determined by global commodities and demand not the amount the US imports. Your authors use flawed economics when discussing dependence Prepare and Prosper, economic think tank that writes primarily about America’s rising debt levels, Accessed July 21, 2014, “America’s economic myths exposed”, Accessed July 21, 2014, myth suggests that the problem with oil prices is due to America’s “dependence” on foreign oil. The high price of oil has nothing to do with its origin; the price of oil is determined in international markets. Even if the United States were to produce 100 percent of the oil it consumes, the price would be the same if the worldwide supply and demand of oil were to remain the same. Oil is a commodity, so the price of a barrel produced in the United States is basically the same as the price of a barrel of oil produced in any other country, but the costs of labor, land, and regulatory compliance are usually higher in the United States than in third-world countries. Lowering these costs would help increase supply. Increasing supply, whether in the United States or elsewhere, will push prices lower. Importing a product does not mean you “depend” on it. This is like saying that when we “import” food from our local supermarket we “depend” on that supermarket. The opposite is usually true; exporters depend on us, since we are the customers. Also, importing a product usually means buying at lower prices, whereas producing in the United States often means consuming at higher prices. This point is proven when we see the cheap imports we can purchase from China and the higher prices of many of these same products manufactured in the United States. The amazing thing is that the protectionists claim, on the one hand, that America should be “protected” from cheap imports, but when it comes to oil, they say we should be “protected” from “expensive imported” oil. Most, if not all, of the higher price of oil can be explained by the expansion of the money supply or the debasement of the dollar. The foreign producers are not at fault; our national central bank is the culprit.No—Supply Not Decreasing NowGlobal oil supply holding stable now—prices decreasing as demand lessens Reuters, news organization, July 15, 2014, “Oil crushed by oversupply; WTI ends at 2 month low under $100”, Accessed July 21, 2014, Oil prices slumped by more than $2 per barrel on Tuesday, deepening their biggest slide this year as rising Libyan supplies and downbeat economic data sharpened concerns that the global market was heading into a near-term glut. World oil prices have rapidly erased a geopolitical risk premium that had been pushing prices up since April, and selling has accelerated in recent days as traders shift their focus from violence in Iraq and Libya to weak global fundamentals. Despite ongoing fighting between militias in Tripoli, Libya's oil output has risen to 588,000 barrels per day (bpd), an increase of around 25 percent since the weekend, the acting oil minister told Reuters. Brent crude dropped more than $2 to under $105 a barrel, the lowest since April 3. Prices have declined almost 7 percent since the beginning of July, an abrupt sell-off that has caught many analysts off guard. The front-month August contract expires on Wednesday, putting further pressure on prices as investors liquidate positions, analysts said. U.S. crude fell 95 cents to settle at $99.96 a barrel, its lowest since May 9. The contract briefly broke its 200-day moving average of $99.92, a key technical indicator closely watched by traders. As global oil supply remains solid, the oil markets are coming under pressure from weaker-than-expected economic data from some of the world's largest economies. In China, lower global refining activity and weaker buying have decreased demand for crude oil, London-based consultancy Energy Aspects said in a note. Investors are awaiting June growth figures, due on Wednesday, to understand whether the world's top net oil importer needs further stimulus support. Despite higher supplies from Libya, concerns mounted over rising violence after militia clashes in Tripoli closed the country's main airport and prompted the United Nations to evacuate its staff. No—Supply Not Decreasing NowUS oil production is increasing now—peak oil theory of supply, production, and price is wrong Philip Mause, a Senior Advisor with the Pacific Economics Group, focusing on energy, regulatory and valuation issues. He retired from 40 years of law practice earlier this year, July 7, 2014, “What Happened To 'Peak Oil'?”, Accessed July 21, 2014, Oil Production - Using Energy Information Agency (EIA) data, it appears that US oil production is on the increase and total production (including natural gas liquids) is on the threshold of exceeding the 1970 peak. The table below provides an "all in" average daily production number in thousands of barrels per day for the old peak year of 1970, and the bottom year (2006) through 2013. This number includes natural gas plant liquids (NGPL). I have also provided crude production and NGPL production separately. Looking at these numbers, we may be about to prove the peak oil production prediction wrong. Even narrowly defined crude oil field production is on the increase and this is inconsistent with Hubbert's prediction of a steady downturn in production after the peak. The year to date 2014 numbers are 8,206 for crude, 2,806 for NGPL and 11,012 for the total. We are creeping back up to the 1970 "peak" for the total although we still have a way to go to get there for crude. At any rate these numbers do not look anything like the curve posited by peak oil advocates which would have required a gradual decline from the 2008 crude oil bottom rather than a rebound of more than 50% off that bottom.No—Supply Not Decreasing NowNot running out of oil—prices won’t spike either—high but stable prices will be locked in. Technology pushes peak oil to the very distant future Felicity Duncan|, Columnist for Money Web online economics news outlet, July 17, 2014, “Remember peak oil?”, Accessed July 21, 2014, “The market is becoming very different. It is likely that most new sources of oil production involve relatively high marginal costs. Shale fracking is expensive and tar sands production is very expensive. A decline in the oil price will lead to a reduction in production from these sources relatively quickly. As more expensive oil production plays a bigger role in the market, the amount of production that will be driven off line by a price decline will increase. In economists’ terms, the supply of oil will become more price elastic - especially on the down side. As a result, prices will tend to stabilise with a floor set by the price incentive necessary to sustain this more expensive production. This price level is probably somewhere in the $65 - $80 range today. It is unlikely that we will ever see $30 a barrel oil again unless there is a major global economic depression.” In other words, the oil market has changed a lot. Consumers can expect oil to remain at the relatively high prices it is currently trading at. There will be fewer oil shocks in the future, and oil and gas companies will be less exposed to the vagaries of the oil price. Extraction technology will become more important than finding oil fields, and companies with a technological advantage will outperform. Finally, the spectre of peak oil now seems much more distant, as we are able to exploit new sources of oil. It’s a brave new world.No—Supply Not Decreasing NowSupply doomsday predictions ignore extraction technology innovations—peak oil won’t happenMichael Lynch, Forbes contributor: researcher at the Energy Laboratory and Center for International Studies, spent several years at what is now IHS Global Insight and was chief energy economist, and currently president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc., he also lectures MBA students at Vienna University. He’s been president of the US Association for Energy Economics, July 7, 2014, “Peak Oil 4: The Urban Legend Of Inadequate Discoveries”, Accessed July 21, 2014, supporting data was ever presented to confirm this argument, and it has been refuted again and again by others in the industry, including the source of the data, a company now part of the IHS corporation, which Campbell and Laherrere relied on for their reserve data. Efforts to refute this, by arguing that there is no new technology or that production trends can provide accurate field reserve estimates, have ranged from incorrect to laughable. This explains why, despite the fact that “discoveries” have been deficient in replacing production for so long without any decline in proved reserves for decades: reserve additions to existing fields typically outpaces new discoveries in any given year. The practice of postdating these additions to the year of the initial discovery in some data sets, so as used in the graph shown, misleads the novices into thinking that oil supplies are becoming more scarce, when in fact they are easily keeping pace. Peak oil advocates try to undermine this argument by pointing to the late-1980s reserve revisions in some Middle East producers as being ‘spurious’ and intended to lead to higher production quotas within OPEC. (They mistakenly believe that OPEC adopted a formula using reserves and capacity, among other things, to set quotas. It was considered, but never adopted.) However, they tend to completely ignore the fact that excluding those revisions still leaves us with increasing reserves. Thus, one of the major pillars of the peak oil movement, inadequate discoveries, is shown to be nothing more than a misinterpretation of a technical term used by the industry, plus gullibility by the supporters of peak oil advocates.No—No Impact to Oil Shocks Things have changed—oil shocks don’t spell doom for the US economy anymore, we’ve diversified Sam Ro, editor of Money Game. He has been published on Forbes, DealBreaker, and The Fiscal Times. He was the senior equity analyst for the Forbes Special Situation Survey and Forbes Growth Investor equity newsletters, June 30, 2014, “Oil Price Shocks Aren't As Harmful As They Used To Be”, Accessed July 21, 2014, is a critical source of energy. In the past, a major oil price shock meant devastation for economic growth. "Our obsession with oil prices comes with good reason," writes Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner. "Abrupt and sharp increases in oil prices have played a key role in precipitating recessions in 1973-75, 1980-81, 1990-91, 2001 and 2008-09." Recent turmoil in Iraq has sent oil prices much higher. But economists aren't ready to freak out just yet. "Over time, however, those shocks to the relative price of oil have spurred innovations that have led to a more efficient use of energy inputs," continued Zentner. "Alongside growing use of other energy inputs, those innovations have reduced the world economy’s dependence on oil." Zentner presented this chart showing how a decreasing amount of energy has been needed to generated a dollar's worth of GDP in the world.No—No Impact to Oil Shocks Small magnitude to oil shocks—US energy dependence checks the impact. Iraq and Ukraine volatility disprove your shock args Natalie Trunow, Chief Investment Officer, Equities, Calvert Investment Management, Inc., July 7, 2014, “Market View: Equities Despite Geopolitical Tensions, the Market Proved Resilient in Q2”, Accessed July 21, 2014, the current crisis in Iraq intensified, oil prices spiked in June, however they retreated toward the end of the month following reports that the situation was coming under control. In the past, this might have coincided with a sell-off in equity markets and rise in volatility, but this time investors seemed to shrug it off. This was likely due to the fact that America has reduced its dependence on foreign energy and that investors perceive the conflict as being a short-term dislocation rather than a long-term risk to the supply of oil, thus concluding that the economic impact is likely to be minimal. Markets have been re-awakened to the real possibility of an oil shock, and this threat alone can increase volatility going forward. For now, markets are betting that the situation is likely to be controlled and will not impede global economic growth. At the same time, simmering unrest in the Ukraine lingered during the quarter. But with a relatively remote chance of escalating into a broader regional conflict, market participants again determined the economic impact on global growth is likely minimal, and equity markets marched upward with emerging markets posting an impressive come back. ................
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