Weekly Report on NYC 2020 Census Self-Response

Weekly Report on NYC 2020 Census Self-Response

Rates as Issued on May 21st, 2020

New York City Department of City Planning Population Division

Weekly Report on 2020 Census Self-Response (Rates Issued on May 21) New York City Department of City Planning--Population Division

The self-response rate measures the percentage of housing units that self-responded to the 2020 Census either online, by mail, or by phone.

Why We Care If an area has a low self-response rate, it means:

? More census enumerators will need to knock on doors to count residents in-person; and ? It is more likely people in the area may be missed or counted inaccurately.

How does New York City Compare to New York State and the U.S.? New York City's response rate stands at 49.6 percent, compared to 54.6 percent for New York State, and 59.8 percent for the U.S. (figure 1). Over the past week (May 14 ? May 21), New York City was up 1.2 percentage points, compared to 0.9 for New York State and 0.7 the nation. Over the past two weeks (May 7 ? May 21), New York City was up 3.2 percentage points, compared to 2.6 for New York State and 2.1 for the nation. Figure 1. Comparison of 2020 Census Self-Response Rates

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The city's self-response rate as a percentage of U.S. self-response has increased throughout April and May, in the midst of a pandemic. Response rate growth in the city continues to outpace growth for the nation, with New York City's response rate now at 82.9 percent of the U.S. self-response (figure 2). It is possible that self-response for the U.S. may be plateauing, but the city still has relatively more room for improvement. Figure 2. NYC Self-Response as a Percentage of U.S. Response Rate in 2020

Within New York City, Staten Island had the highest self-response, with 55.9 percent of households responding, while Brooklyn had the lowest, at 46.9 percent (figure 3). Three boroughs (The Bronx, Manhattan, and Staten Island) now have response rates above 50 percent.

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Figure 3. New York City Self-Response Rates* as Issued on May 21 by Census Tract

A Detailed Look at Self-Response in New York City The Census Bureau concluded their scheduled mailings to housing units with a final reminder postcard sent on May 9th. By now, all housing units for which there was no response have received a paper questionnaire, thus offering a mail-in paper option for all households, including those previously limited to the internet and to phone options. The hope was that this would boost self-response, especially in areas where rates were very low and internet access was less than optimal. Given the proposal not to send out field enumerators until the middle of

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August, as part of the proposed 120 day extension of the census, it is likely that additional "reminder" mailings will arrive at housing units that have failed to respond.

Self-Response by Neighborhood While the ninth week of the self-response period reveals a continuation of the pattern of lower self-response in neighborhoods that are predominantly black, the gap with overall rates continues to narrow modestly. There are 23 neighborhoods where 60 percent or more of the population is black nonhispanic. The response rate for these 23 neighborhoods is 44.3 percent, compared to the citywide rate of 49.6 percent, a gap that shrunk slightly over the past week (from 5.5 to 5.3 percentage points). Self-response in these 23 neighborhoods ranges from a high of 53.7 percent (Cambria Heights, Queens) to a low of 38.9 percent (Rugby-Remsen Village, Brooklyn).

A large number of black communities in the Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn remain in the lowest two intervals of self-response (figure 4). These include Stuyvesant Heights, Ocean Hill, Rugby-Remsen Village, Erasmus, Canarsie, and East New York in Brooklyn; South Jamaica, Baisley Park, Springfield Gardens, Rosedale, St. Albans, and Far Rockaway in Queens; and Williamsbridge, Eastchester, and Wakefield in the Bronx (see Appendix A for a reference map of neighborhoods).

While overall self-response for black neighborhoods is low, several communities with a majority or plurality of black residents continue to be above the city average, including Cambria Heights in Queens, Harlem in Manhattan, Flatbush in Brooklyn, and Co-op City and Parkchester in the Bronx.

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Figure 4. New York City 2020 Self-Response Rates* as Issued on May 21 by Neighborhood Tabulation Area

Also consistent with previous patterns, most of Staten Island exhibits high levels of selfresponse, though Stapleton-Rosebank and West New Brighton-St. George continue to be exceptions, with the latter actually losing ground over the past week. Most areas of Manhattan are showing relatively high self-response, though the Upper East Side-Carnegie Hill, Midtown, and SoHo-Tribeca are still lagging. (While there is no definitive way to tell at this point, the persistence of low response in these areas may be related to temporary dislocation due to the pandemic.) Finally, Borough Park and Williamsburg in Brooklyn continue to have low levels of self-response, but there continues to be encouraging news (see discussion on change in neighborhood self-response rates below). In the Bronx, over the past three weeks, a pattern of

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low response has emerged in Van Nest-Morris Park, West Farms, and Soundview-Bruckner, along with Belmont to the west. Additionally, a persistent pattern over the past several weeks is a corridor of low response in Maspeth and Ridgewood in Queens, and just across the border in Brooklyn, in Bushwick North and Bushwick South.

As noted in previous reports, a higher share of foreign-born residents in a neighborhood is associated with lower levels of self-response, though the relationship is neither strong nor straightforward. This pattern continues to be true; neighborhoods with large foreign-born concentrations lie on both ends of the self-response spectrum. Some neighborhoods with large concentrations of immigrants have relatively high response, most notably in a corridor from Washington Heights South, Washington Heights North, and Marble Hill-Inwood in Upper Manhattan, extending to Kingsbridge Heights and Van Cortlandt Village in the Bronx. In fact, a pattern of response at or higher than the city average can now be seen over a large swath of the west and south Bronx, including areas with large Dominican, African, and central/south American populations. Especially notable is the relatively high response in the East and West Concourse and in Highbridge.

A sizable number of immigrant neighborhoods also show low self-response: North Corona, Corona, East Elmhurst, East Flushing, Queensboro Hill, and College Point in the northern section of Queens, and Richmond Hill, South Ozone Park, and Jamaica in the southern part of the borough. In Brooklyn, a corridor of low response starts in Sunset Park East, Dyker Heights, and Bensonhurst, and runs through Homecrest and into Brighton Beach -- all neighborhoods with large immigrant populations. Finally, several neighborhoods characterized by black West Indian populations continue to have low response, including Erasmus, RugbyRemsen Village, East Flatbush-Farragut, Flatlands, and Canarsie in Brooklyn, as well as Springfield Gardens South, St. Albans and Rosedale in Queens.

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Neighborhood Differentials by Borough

Over the past several weeks, neighborhoods with relatively low self-response have remained essentially the same, populating the lowest two categories of the NTA map (figure 4). More than two months into the self-response period, it continues to be important to identify neighborhoods that are on the top and, especially, the bottom of the response spectrum. This allows local outreach efforts to not only target areas of low response for specialized messaging, but it allows those on the ground to learn from neighborhoods where organization and messaging are working best.

In the Bronx, Co-op City has a stellar rate of 62.3 percent, a full 21 points above the lowest response area ? Williamsbridge, which stands at 41.3 percent (see Appendix B). This gap is surprising, given that both areas are majority black, have a similar socioeconomic profile, and are in relatively close proximity to each other in the northern section of the borough. Moreover, Williamsbridge is not alone, but is part of a cluster of adjacent neighborhoods with self-response between 17 and 20 points lower than in Co-op City. Other than Co-op City, Spuyten DuyvilKingsbridge, North Riverdale-Fieldston-Riverdale, and Parkchester each have a self-response rate of 60 percent or more.

In Brooklyn, Starrett City, another large development, tops the list with a response rate of 61.8 percent, a full 25 percentage points higher than Cypress Hill-City Line, which is at 36.5 percent. Other Brooklyn neighborhoods with a self-response rate below 40 percent include Williamsburg, Sunset Park East, Borough Park, and Rugby-Remsen Village. These areas represent a diverse array of populations, including a large Asian concentration in Sunset Park East, an Orthodox population in Borough Park and Williamsburg, black West Indian immigrants in Rugby-Remsen Village, and a range of Hispanic and black ethnicities in CypressCity Line. The only other neighborhood to top 60 percent in Brooklyn is Windsor Terrace.

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