FIDELITY WEALTH MANAGEMENT WEBINAR
FIDELITY WEALTH MANAGEMENT WEBINAR
Today's markets and tomorrow's taxes
Our Speakers
Nicholas A. Beis VP, Advanced Planning, Fidelity Investments Nicholas Beis joined Fidelity in 2019 as a vice president of Advanced Planning. In this role, he educates both clients and the broader Fidelity organization regarding family wealth planning strategies, including estate, trust, gift, and charitable planning techniques. Prior to joining Fidelity, Nicholas worked as an attorney for Wilson & Wilson Estate Planning & Elder Law LLC, where he focused primarily on the areas of estate planning, trust administration, and business succession planning.
Alice Joe, CFA? VP, Federal Government Relations, Fidelity Investments Alice Joe is a vice president of Government Relations for Fidelity Investments, a leading provider of investment management, retirement planning, portfolio guidance, brokerage, benefits outsourcing, and other financial products and services to more than 35 million individuals, institutions, and financial intermediaries. Since joining Fidelity in 2017, Alice has worked to align policy outcomes with the firm's strategic objectives. She has advocated on behalf of the firm's interest in Washington on a range of legislative and regulatory policies before government officials. Her areas of expertise include financial services regulation, retirement and education savings policy, and tax.
Lars Schuster Institutional Portfolio Manager, Strategic Advisers LLC Lars Schuster is an institutional portfolio manager at Strategic Advisers LLC, a registered investment adviser and a Fidelity Investments company. Fidelity Investments is a leading provider of investment management, retirement planning, portfolio guidance, brokerage, benefits outsourcing, and other financial products and services to more than 35 million individuals, institutions, and financial intermediaries. In this role, he is a member of the investment management team, and is responsible for delivering Strategic Advisers' managed account investment philosophy, process, and ongoing activities to a wide range of investors.
Stocks Have Posted Solid Gains
Vaccinations and strong corporate profits helped drive stocks higher
Cumulative Returns (%)
40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0
5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 31-Aug-20
U.S. Stocks
Non-U.S. Stocks
Bonds
YTD 2021
30-Nov-20
28-Feb-21
31-May-21
U.S. Stocks YTD: +20.6% 1Y: +33.3% Non-U.S. Stocks YTD: +9.5% 1Y: +25.0%
Bonds YTD: -0.7% 1Y: -0.1%
31-Aug-21
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. U.S. Stocks = Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index; Non-U.S. Stocks = Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) All Country World Index ex-U.S. (Net MA); Bonds = Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Source: Fidelity Investments, as of 8/31/21.
Global Expansion Progressing in an Uneven Manner
Business Cycle Framework
Cycle Phases EARLY ? Activity rebounds (GDP, IP, employment) ? Credit begins to grow ? Profits grow rapidly ? Policy still stimulative ? Inventories low; sales improve
MID ? Growth peaking ? Credit growth strong ? Profit growth peaks ? Policy neutral ? Inventories, sales grow; equilibrium reached
Eurozone, U.K., U.S. Australia, Canada
Japan, Korea Brazil, India, Mexico
China
LATE
? Growth moderating ? Credit tightens ? Earnings under pressure ? Policy contractionary ? Inventories grow, sales
growth falls
RECESSION
? Falling activity ? Credit dries up ? Profits decline ? Policy eases ? Inventories,
sales fall
+ Economic Growth
?
Relative Performance of Economically Sensitive Assets
Green = Strong
Note: The diagram above is a hypothetical illustration of the business cycle, the pattern of cyclical fluctuations in an economy over a few years that can influence asset returns over an intermediate-term horizon. There is not always a chronological, linear progression among the phases of the business cycle, and there have been cycles when the economy has skipped a phase or retraced an earlier one. Source: Fidelity Investments (AART), as of 7/31/21.
Inflation Expectations Have Started to Fade
Currently, the bond market is not pricing in persistently high inflation
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE FALLING FROM THEIR PEAKS AND DID NOT REACH EXTREME LEVELS
5-YEAR ZERO-COUPON INFLATION SWAP*
3
2.5
2
Percent (%)
1.5
1
0.5
0 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
*A derivative used to transfer inflation risk from one party to another through an exchange of cash flows. In a zero-coupon inflation swap, only one payment is done at maturity where one party pays a fixed rate on a notional principal amount, while the other party pays a floating rate linked to an inflation index. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 6/30/2021.
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