Dr. David Kelly, CFA

Global Market Insights Strategy team

Americas

Europe

Asia

Dr. David Kelly, CFA New York

Karen Ward London

Tai Hui Hong Kong

David Lebovitz New York

Gabriela Santos New York

Hugh Gimber, CFA London

Vincent Juvyns Luxembourg

Marcella Chow Hong Kong

Shogo Maekawa Tokyo

Jack Manley New York

Jordan Jackson New York

Mary Park Durham New York

Brandon Hall New York

Meera Pandit, CFA New York

Max McKechnie London

Stephanie Aliaga New York

Nimish Vyas New York

Natasha May London

Marina Valentini S?o Paulo

Kathleen Clum New York

Zara Nokes London

Tilmann Galler, CFA Frankfurt

Maria Paola Toschi Milan

Elena Domecq Madrid

Lucia Gutierrez Mellado Madrid

Ian Hui Hong Kong

Adrian Tong Hong Kong

Jennifer Qiu Hong Kong

Chaoping Zhu, CFA Shanghai

Arthur Jiang Shanghai

Sahil Gauba Mumbai

Agnes Lin Taipei

Kerry Craig, CFA Melbourne

S&P 500 Price Index

4,800 4,500 4,200 3,900

Characteristic Index Level P/E Ratio (fwd.) Dividend Yield 10-yr. Treasury

3/24/2000 10/9/2007 2/19/2020

1,527

1,565

3,386

25.2x

15.1x

19.2x

1.4%

1.9%

1.9%

6.2%

4.7%

1.6%

1/3/2022 4,797 21.4x 1.3% 1.6%

9/30/2023 4,288 17.8x 1.7% 4.6%

3,600

3,300

3,000

Jan. 3, 2022 P/E (fwd.) = 21.4x

4,797

Sep. 30, 2023 P/E (fwd.) = 17.8x

4,288

+114%

+20%

Feb. 19, 2020 P/E (fwd.) = 19.2x

3,386

-25%

Oct. 12, 2022 P/E (fwd.) = 15.7x

3,577

2,700 2,400

+401%

-34%

2,100 1,800 1,500 1,200

Mar. 24, 2000 P/E (fwd.) = 25.2x

1,527

+106%

-49%

Oct. 9, 2007 P/E (fwd.) = 15.1x

1,565

+101%

-57%

Mar. 23, 2020 P/E (fwd.) = 13.3x

2,237

900

Dec. 31, 1996 P/E (fwd.) = 15.9x

741 600

Oct. 9, 2002 P/E (fwd.) = 14.1x

777

Mar. 9, 2009 P/E (fwd.) = 10.4x

677

'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22

S&P 500 Index: Forward P/E ratio

28x

Valuation measure

Description

Latest 25-year avg.*

26x

P/E

Forward P/E

17.83x

16.76x

CAPE

Shiller's P/E

29.53x 27.73x

Div. Yield

Dividend yield 1.69%

1.98%

24x

P/B

Price to book

3.61x

3.10x

P/CF

Price to cash flow 13.54x 11.27x

22x

EY Spread

EY minus Baa yield -0.78%

0.33%

Std. dev. Over/under-Valued

0.32 0.29 0.85 0.63 1.03 0.58

20x +1 Std. dev.: 20.05x

18x

16x

25-year average: 16.76x

14x

-1 Std. dev.: 13.47x 12x

10x

8x

'98

'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

'16

'18

Sep. 30, 2023: 17.83x

'20

'22

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