PRINCIPLES OF MACROECONOMICS
PRINCIPLES OF MACROECONOMICS
Term: Fall 2004
Course Number: ECO 2013-168
Meeting Times Tuesday/Thursday @ 9:25-10:40
and Location: 042-1020
Course Description No prerequisites. This course cannot be used to satisfy upper-level
and Prerequisites: requirements for a degree in business administration and/or economics.
The course is intended to provide students with an introduction to the
theory of income determination and national income accounting. The
approach to the materials is both diagnostic and prescriptive. A primary
focus of analysis is on the use of monetary and fiscal policy to accomplish
the goals of full employment, economic growth and price stability.
Instructor: L.A. Woods
Office Hours: Tuesday & Thursday – 8:30 to 9:25; 12:15 to 1:30; and by appointment.
Phone: [904] 646-2641
E-mail: lwoods@unf.edu
Required Texts: N. Gregory Mankiw. 2004. Principles of Macroeconomics, Third Edition.
Mason, OH: Thomson/South-Western.
Outside Readings: In addition to the assigned reading material in the text, each student is
expected to read a total of ten (10) articles (not editorials or book reviews) from scholarly journals over the term. Time, Businessweek, Fortune, etc. are all popular periodicals and do not qualify as scholarly journals. Several examples of scholarly journals are Harvard Business Review, Business Economics, Journal of Developing Areas, Land Economics, Journal of Marketing. Some students may prefer to read the daily articles found on the Mises Institute website () or Economic Insights found at the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank’s website (). Each of the articles should be reviewed, summarized or outlined as a written report on 5" x 8" note-cards. These reports are to be turned in on a weekly basis, beginning the week of September 7th.
Additional Each student is expected to be well informed on current economic issues --
Requirements: both domestic and international -- by reading the Investor=s Business Daily
(especially the Monday issues, which are sold on the newsstands on Saturday) or the Wall Street Journal; and by viewing Market Wrap on CNBC, Nightly Business Report (PBS), or Lou Dobbs on CNN on a daily
basis.
Course Outline and
Schedule:
Aug. 24 Introduction/background/housekeeping
Aug. 26- Introduction to economics and key issues:
Sept. 16 What is economics? What are the tools that are used in economics?
What are the critical elements of macroeconomics and of economic
reasoning? Production possibilities, economic growth, benefits of
specialization and exchange/trade. The role of markets, supply and
demand. Market equilibrium. Macroeconomic concepts. Overview of
Gwartney and Stroup’s [What Everyone Should Know About Economics
and Prosperity.1993. James Madison Institute] “Ten Key Elements of
Economics”. Major definitions and relationships. Time – the measure of
many things. National income accounts; inflation and techniques for
adjustment. Mankiw, Chapters 1-4; 10-11. SKIM Chapter 5.
Aug. 27 Last day for Drop/Add
Sept. 7 First of the article reviews is due. One is due each week for the next 10
weeks.
Sept. 21 FIRST QUIZ
Sept. 23 - Preliminary issues and long-run fundamentals
Oct. 14 Changes through time, economic growth, productivity and wealth creation
(as opposed to wealth re-distribution). Long-tern growth and theories of
growth. Savings or consumption, Ah, that Is the question (present vs. future – instant vs. delayed gratification). [See: The Road Less Traveled]. Investment and capital; interest rates and GDP. The underpinnings of financial decisions.The nature and operation of labor markets; employment, unemployment, and wages. Myths and realities – Is it really the worst economy since the Great Depression? [For verification, go to: the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics website: . Look at the Unadjusted and adjusted unemployment rates for 1986 through 2004 – pay particular attention to 1993-1994; 1996 in comparison with 2002 through 2004] Money supply growth, inflation.
Mankiw, Chapters 12 -17.
Oct. 19 SECOND QUIZ
Oct. 21 Mid-term grades available
Oct. 21 - Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply. Short and long term
Dec. 2 fluctuations. Monetary and fiscal policies. Tradeoff between inflation and
unemployment and growth. International issues. Business cycles and cycle
theory. Current policy issues. Spatial specialization (comparative
advantage) and the gains from trade.
Mankiw, Chapters 9; 18-23.
Nov. 8 Deadline to withdraw from Fall term
Nov. 11 HOLIDAY – Veteran’s Day
Nov. 25 HOLIDAY – Thanksgiving
Dec. 3 LAST DAY OF CLASSES
Dec. 4 – EXAM PERIOD
Dec. 10
Dec. 7 FINAL QUIZ [Please note: This is Pearl Harbor Day]
Note: The final quiz will be held in the regular classroom from
9:00 to 10:50.
Grading: Three, equally weighted quizzes will comprise 86% of the final grade. The
remaining 14% of the final grade will be determined by the outside readings and summaries. The following aggregate grading scale will be used:
350 to 323 (100% to 93%) ............... A
322 to 298 (92% to 86%) ................. B
297 to 270 (85% to 77%) ................. C
269 to 242 (76% to 70%) ................. D
Less than 242 (69%) ..................... F
Things to
Ponder:
James D. Gwartney and Richard L. Stroup. 1993. What Everyone Should Know About
Economics and Prosperity. Tallahassee, FL: The James Madison Institute.
Purpose of using this book – eliminate economic ignorance! Many notions that people hold about economics are in error, largely because they have been given the theoretical mechanics, but not the broader rudimentary concepts that form the structural framework, e.g., the ‘law of demand’ vs. ‘incentives matter’. It also adheres to the military’s KISS [Keep It Simple, Stupid] principle.
The authors’ open with a simple statement that incorporates one of the ‘key elements of economics’ – “there’s no such thing as a free lunch’ (TANSTAAFL). “We realize that your time is valuable.” (iv) Embedded in this statement is the recognition that: (i) resources, including your time, are scarce (the ‘law of scarcity’; and (ii) they can be put to alternative uses (they have an alternative or opportunity cost). One of the primary reasons that learning the ‘basic’ economic principles outlined in the book is that they: “…enhance your ability to differentiate between sound arguments and economic nonsense, i.e., separate the truth from the BS that constantly presented in the media. Often the media elite make misleading statements such as: “Gasoline prices are at an all time high.” Which is true, if you fail to discount prices for the influence of inflation, brought to us by the government’s ability to print (create) money without constraint. Ask yourself, what has happened to the five-cent Hershey bar. Equally misleading is their confusion over Revenue and Profit when reporting “Oil companies profits are up 350 percent!”, when the true metric was Gross Revenue. And, again, “Health care costs (prices) are too high in the United States,” implying that this is a result of greedy businesses and medical professionals, without inquiring further about WHY they are high! Without too much effort, it is possible to deduce several reasonable reasons that account for the high costs, though not necessarily in order of importance:
i) the role of Medicare;
[by setting reimbursements to doctors, hospitals and other
medical professionals at below market clearing
(equilibrium) prices, the unfunded costs are shifted
onto consumers with insurance or who pay cash.
This raises the premiums on health insurance, as
well.]
(ii) the ‘greed’ of tort lawyers (Fast Eddy Farah and John Edwards);
[skimming-off 33%, PLUS costs from the gross award,
results in higher premiums paid by doctors for mal-practice
insurance, translating into even higher bills to health
insurance companies and consumers. Transfer wealth from
those that have to themselves.] and
iii) a gradually aging population:
[the need for medical care increases with age, placing greater demand on the healthcare system.]
Economic ignorance seems to stem from a concentration on the theoretical mechanics rather than focusing on the basic principles. This results in a tuning-out of students. The key principles have been provided to people from the cradle onward, but without simple approaches to the messages, e.g.,
Aesop’s fable of the ‘Grasshopper and the Ants’ – what is the message of the
fable? Simply, it is self-reliance and self-responsibility! Rather than
accepting responsibility it is easier (more convenient?) to seek self-
absolution by passing the blame or responsibility onto others or society
as a whole, e.g., the old Flip Wilson character (Geraldine) – “The Devil
made me do it!” Place reliance on some third party to take responsibility –
the government, disregarding its inability to effectively/efficiently solve
real human problems because of its propensity to distort markets and to
create unintended consequences.
The child’s story, “Chicken Little,” has a message, too: THINK, don’t be
stampeded into life-(changing) threatening decisions on the basis of faulty
information, no matter how loud the message is shouted or how often!
“The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Would Turkey Lurky and Ducky
Lucky and all the other barnyard critters have been better-off had they just
sat down and thought Chicken Little’s foolishness through. But, what did
they do? They followed a self-appointed false prophet (Foxy Loxy) to
there doom. Are there many ‘self-appointed false prophets’ out there?
Count on it! Global warming, the population bomb has exploded (Thomas Malthus and Paul Ehrlich) genetically modified (GM) foods (Jeramy Rifkin), and vaccines will harm children, to name a few!
“The Little Red Hen” provides an additional example of a child’s story with a
profound message – the role of incentives and property rights (physical/ intellectual and individual/group) in a well-ordered barnyard or society. We are always and everywhere constrained by scarcity, whether of resources or of time. This reality means that ALL human needs/wants cannot be satisfied at a moment in time, consequently some individuals have more than others – an uneven distribution of looks, income, wealth, land…. Those that have less would always like to have more. Hence laws and their enforcement are necessary. An unspoken truth of the tale, expressed by the Little Red hen is a property right to her and her children’s labor – ‘we worked to produce the final product, and it is ours to use as we see fit.’ Keep in mind the Three Inalienable Rights espoused by the Founding Fathers – ‘Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness,’ remember they were barrowed from John Locke’s ‘Life, Liberty and Property’. Contrast this with the nonsense that everyone should have ‘equal shares’ à la Karl Marx, “From each according to his ability, to each according to his need,” and Stalin’s re-write, “From each according to his ability, to each according to his work’!
Gwartney & Stroup point out the fact that “political rules and policies” affect the economy – largely as a result of the ‘law of unintended consequences’. Decisions are made and policies implemented with utter disregard to potential future outcomes, which have probabilities that must be estimated and the consequences calculated. Consider their admonition:
…we are a nation of economic illiterates. In a democratic setting, the consequences of economic
illiteracy can be disastrous. People who do not understand the sources of economic prosperity are
susceptible to schemes that conflict with the attainment of that prosperity. (v)
Ten Key Elements of Economics
1. Incentives Matter. In simple terms, if you want more of a certain activity or behavior,
reward it, if you want less, the penalize it. The ‘reward’ may be profits (sales), an
ice cream cone (a child minding his/her parents), or a kindly word (a ‘Thank
you’) for a good deed done. The penalty may be a higher tax on the activity, a
spanking, or deprivation of a pleasurable activity (watching a favorite TV
program for a naughty child) or a rebuke for bad behavior. Responses are not
instantaneous, but require time for behavioral adjustments (a lagged effect). Uses
market adjustment to a change in price (buyers/sellers). A change in tax rates
behaves the same way, households must adjust their expectations and spending
behaviors to both higher and lower rates. Please note the comment (4):
….market prices will coordinate the actions of both buyers and sellers.
The example provided of ‘higher gasoline prices of the 1970s is both timely and telling. The connection between voters and political candidates is also worthy of comment – see: Robert L. Formaini. 2003. “James M. Buchanan – The Creation of Public Choice Theory,” Economic Insights, 8 (2); available at:
research/ei/ei0302
The insight that incentives also matter in socialist/communist societies is significant in avoiding wishful thinking and the belief that certain economic laws may be repealed by caring politicians – ‘Let’s impose price controls’ – in the mistaken belief that there will be no consequences! [SHORTAGES]
Gwartney & Stroup field a common notion: “…economic analysis only helps explain the actions of self-centered, greedy materialists.” (5) By observing that “This view is false.”
2. There is No Such Thing as a Free Lunch. (or, more crudely: TANSTAAFL) The factor
underpinning this statement is the so-called ‘law of scarcity’, which gives rise to
the principle of alternative (or opportunity) costs. These costs are associated with
the facts that we must contend with limited resources and unlimited wants (and,
perhaps, needs). Money spent on lighting bridges for the Super Bowl are no longer available to add classrooms to public schools. This means that if we want more of one item, it will be necessary to forego or give up alternative items as we transfer resources into the production of the item desired. We must make choices between/among various alternatives because of scarcity. This principle applies to government, as well as individuals. You may remember this basic idea from the Production Possibilities Curve found in all Principles of Economics texts. Of all costs, it is the costs that reflect ‘lost alternatives’ that are most frequently ignored by individuals (if I go partying tonight, how will it affect my grade on tomorrows test?), businesses (if we allocate investment dollars to this product, what alternative investments must be give-up?) and government bureaucrats (if we provide public housing to this group, what services must be foregone by other groups?) The Congress consistently ignores this principle (TANSTAAFL)! They can always raise taxes, impose user-fees, impose price-controls, and, thereby, distort markets, i.e., divert spending on PRIVATE sector goods and channel it into the production of PUBLIC sector goods. This does not reflect the desires of consumers, but the wishes of special interest groups, i.e., it represents rent-seeking behavior. (go to: research/ei/ei0302 ) Such costs are a critical force in directing scarce resources to their ‘highest and best uses’ and avoiding mal-investment! See: Robert L. Formaini. 1999. “Hayek – Social Theorist of the Century,” Economic Insight, 4 (1); also available at: research/ei/ei9901; Mises ei; Roger W. Garrison.2001. Time and Money: The Macroeconomics of Capital Structure. London: Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group, esp. Chapter 3; Ludwig von Mises, 1998. Human Action: A Treatise on Economics. Auburn, AL: Ludwig von Mises Institue, esp. Chapter XX.
Prices provide signals to both consumers and producers: higher prices – buy less and produce more; and lower prices – buy more and produce less [revealed in the demand/supply relationship]. In this process, increased consumer demand for a good, stimulates producers to attempt to increase output. Output expansion requires producers to bid resources away from their use in the production of other goods (their alternative uses). It is always necessary to remember Mises admonition: in a free market, the consumer is king and that all production is for consumption! Note the emphasis that Gwartney & Stroup place on the provision of so-called ‘free’ goods to an ‘individual or group’ and the opportunity costs that these ‘free’ goods impose on others. (7) They are emphatic in their assessment:
…this merely shifts the costs; it does not reduce them. Politicians often speak of ‘free’
education’, ‘free medical care,’ or ‘free housing’. The terminology is deceptive. None
of these things are free.
Something to ponder, the Bush II administration’s proposed Medicare Prescription Drug Bill, what are the likely opportunity costs? And, what are the potential unintended consequences? In spite of many government attempts, none have been able to repeal the ‘Law of Scarcity’. However, its restrictive nature has been loosened over the long haul by the activities of the innovative actions of the ‘entrepreneur’. See: W. Michael Cox. 2001. “Schumpeter – In His Own Words,” Economic Insights, Vol. 6, No. 3; available at: htm/pubs/ei/ei6_3_01. For example, as demand for copper has grown and prices have risen, it has been displaced in many uses by cheaper and more efficient substitutes, i.e., optical fiber and/or aluminum cable. Other examples include the longer term shift in energy sources: wood, coal, liquid fuel stock, gaseous fuels, to WHAT next?
Library Scholarly journals may be located in the periodical section of the library
Assignments: (The Third Level).
Written The individual article summaries will comprise one of the written
Communication communication requirements in this course. Please note that the cards=
Requirements: format, particularly the Bibliographic material, should conform to those found in the Chicago Manual of Style.
Oral Class participation constitutes the demonstration of oral
Communication communication skills. At all times, class discussion and class
Requirements: participation is strongly encouraged.
Computer Use of the Internet for data searches, articles from scholarly journals
Applications: and data manipulation are encouraged. The need for students to access the
instructor=s home page to download syllabi, class materials, and project
instructions serves as an additional set of computer applications.
International Mankiw devotes several chapter to international issues. Lectures and Coverage: handouts are used to augment the international component of this course.
Environmental Externalities/market failures, as well as government policies, are used
Issues Covered: to examine environmental issues. In addition, the regulatory response and
burden on private markets are discussed. The role of private property in a
free-market economy and its implications for economic efficiency vis-a-vis
the public provision of goods and services are examined in the so-called
>tragedy of the commons=.
Ethical Issues Ethical issues related to illegal or immoral activity within the economy will Covered: be discussed where and as appropriate. This is particularly appropriate,
given recent scandals—Enron, Global Crossing, etc. and elected
governmental officials. Since the course addresses aggregates, aggregate
behavior of producers, consumers, regulators will be considered.
Academic Integrity: Each student is expected to do his/her own work on assigned activities and on all quizzes. An understanding of what constitutes plagiarism and abuse
of copyright >fair use= laws is expected of each student.
Students With Students with a disability, as defined under the Americans with Disabilities Disabilities: Act (ADA), who may require special classroom accommodations, should
inform the instructor of any special needs during the first week of class.
Students should also contact the Office of Disabled Services Programs
(646-2769) immediately.
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