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US Economic Indicators: Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

Yardeni Research, Inc.

May 28, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni

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Debbie Johnson

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

1-3

May 28, 2021 / Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

Figure 1.

300

300

280

CITIGROUP

260 ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

240

(percent)

Latest (4.4)

280

260

240

220

220

200

200

180

180

160

160

140

140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

5/28

0

-20

-20

-40

-40

-60

-60

-80

-80

-100

-100

-120

-120

-140

-160 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

-140 -160

2021 2022

Note: Blue shaded areas are first half of each year. Source: Citigroup.

Figure 2.

290

290

270 CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

270

250 & 10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELD: 2003-PRESENT

250

230

230

210

Surprise Index

210

190

(percent)

190

170

10-Year Yield*

170

150 130

(13-week change, basis points)

150 130

110

110

90

90

70

70

50

50

30

5/21 30

10

5/28 10

-10

-10

-30

-30

-50

-50

-70

-70

-90

-90

-110

-110

-130

-130

-150

-150

-170

-170

-190

-190

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

* Average for the week ending Friday. Source: Federal Reserve Board and Citigroup.

Page 1 / May 28, 2021 / Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

Figure 3.

150

CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX 130 & 10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELD: 2003-2009

110

90

70

50

30

10

-10

-30

-50

-70

-90

Surprise Index

-110

(percent)

-130

10-Year Yield*

-150

(13-week change, basis points)

-170

-190

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

* Average for the week ending Friday. Source: Federal Reserve Board and Citigroup.

150 130 110 90 70 50 30 10 -10 -30 -50 -70 -90 -110 -130 -150 -170 -190 2009

Figure 4.

290

290

CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

250 & 10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELD: 2009-PRESENT

250

210

210

170

170

130

130

90

90

50

50

10

5/28 10

-30

-30

-70

-70

Surprise Index

-110

(percent)

-110

10-Year Yield*

-150

(13-week change,

-150

basis points)



-190

-190

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

* Average for the week ending Friday. Note: Blue shaded areas denote first half of each year. Source: Federal Reserve Board and Citigroup.

Page 2 / May 28, 2021 / Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

Figure 5.

300

280

CITIGROUP

260 ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

240

(percent)

300

Latest (4.4)

280

260

240

220

220

200

200

180

180

160

160

140

140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

5/28 0

-20

-20

-40

-40

-60

-60

-80

-80

-100

-100

-120

-120

-140

-140

-160

-160

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Note: Blue shaded areas are first halves of each year. Source: Citigroup.

Page 3 / May 28, 2021 / Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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