7. Portfolio Simulation and Pick of the Day - AIQ Systems

7. Portfolio Simulation and Pick of the Day

Overview

Two special functions are incorporated into the AIQ Portfolio Manager for users who base their trading selections on Expert Design Studio (EDS) analysis. These functions allow you to create and test strategies and perform EDS analysis within the Portfolio Manager application. The first function, Portfolio Simulation, is used for creating and back testing mechanical strategies for entering and exiting stock and mutual fund positions. The second function, Pick of the Day, is used to generate stock and mutual fund selections on a daily basis. In this section you will find instructions on how to set up and use the Portfolio Simulation and Pick of the Day functions. Overall, the procedure is as follows:

1. First, create a simulation strategy based on an EDS strategy file. (Several pre-built simulation strategies are delivered with TradingExpert.)

2. Use the Portfolio Simulation function to back test and refine the strategy.

3. Run Pick of the Day to screen for tickers meeting your strategy criteria.

Once you have completed the testing phase and developed confidence in a simulation strategy, the daily process of analyzing your data to find trading candidates requires very little effort. You simply open Pick of the Day, confirm that the simulation strategy and date of analysis are correct, enter available cash, and then click the Run command. A list of tickers meeting your strategy criteria, and any other constraints that you have specified, will quickly appear on your screen.

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Note New users who do not have a good understanding of Expert Design Studio may find the next section, An example of creating a simulation strategy, a helpful tutorial.

A word about simulation strategies

A Portfolio Manager simulation strategy is a group of procedures that is used to control a simulation back test or a Pick of the Day screening. These procedures perform several different functions. They define both how your data is screened for new positions and how position exit points are determined.

In addition, trading rules can be incorporated into your simulation strategy. You can specify how much of your capital can be invested in a single trade and the maximum number of trades that can be open. Procedures to compute entry and exit prices that include slippage can also be specified and you can limit the tickers that will be analyzed for positions to a particular source or security type.

Although simulation strategies include some elements that apply only to simulation back testing, these same strategies are used by the Pick of the Day function to choose real-time trading positions. Simulation strategies can be created or edited from either the Portfolio Simulation function or from the Pick of the Day function.

When you create a simulation strategy, you first designate an EDS (Expert Design Studio) strategy file. This file, which is then linked to the simulation strategy, contains your EDS entry rule and any other EDS procedures such as exit rules or UDFs (User Defined Functions) that you want to incorporate. The file can either be selected from the many EDS files furnished with AIQ TradingExpert or you can create your own file. However, EDS files, rules, and UDFs can only be created or modified within the Expert Design Studio (EDS) application and a good understanding of EDS is needed to create or modify an EDS file.

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1. Creating a simulation strategy

To create a simulation strategy, the user starts by selecting an EDS (Expert Design Studio) strategy file. You can select any of the EDS strategy files that were included with the TradingExpert program or any strategy you have created within the Expert Design Studio application. Once a simulation strategy has been created, that strategy is always available for use in either the Portfolio Simulation or Pick of the Day functions. The procedure to create a simulation strategy takes you through a series of screens where you first enter a name and select an EDS file for the strategy. You then select the entry and exit rules that will be used, any capitalization rules you want to employ, and, if the analysis is not to be run on your entire data base, the list of tickers that the selection will be made from. The following types of special procedures can be included in a simulation strategy:

Procedures for exiting positions. Procedures for ranking positions when multiple positions pass a

screen. Procedures for breaking ties when multiple positions receive

the same ranking score. Procedures for computing entry or exit prices (e.g., next days

open plus 10% of difference between next days closing and opening prices).

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? To create a simulation strategy, follow these steps:

1. From the toolbar, select the New Simulation button. The Portfolio Simulation dialog box will appear on your screen. If Accounts View is selected, the view will change to Simulations.

Portfolio Simulation dialog box 2. Click the button labeled New. The first data entry screen that appears, entitled Strategy, is used to name the strategy you are creating and to select the EDS file that will be linked to this strategy. 3. To complete entries in this screen, proceed as follows: In the text box labeled Strategy Name, type a name for the simulation strategy you are creating and click Next. The name that you enter here is the name that you will select to run a Portfolio Simulation and Pick of the Day analysis.

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Strategy screen

Note If the EDS File box does not contain a valid path and file name, you will not be able to create a simulation strategy. You can, however, create an exit strategy, which is a procedure for determining stops on positions held in your portfolio accounts. The distinction between the two types of strategies is that a simulation strategy requires linkage to an EDS file while an exit strategy does not. In fact, the only way to create an exit strategy is to intentionally leave the EDS file selection blank.

To select the EDS file that contains the rules and UDFs (User Defined functions) that will be used in the strategy, do the following:

To find the EDS file you want to use, click the button with three dots (...) which is located at the right end of the EDS File text box. The Open dialog box will be displayed.

Use this dialog box to display the contents of the winTes32\EDS Strategies folder. TradingExpert stores the EDS strategies that were included with the program in this folder together with any strategies you have created within the EDS application.

Find the folder containing the strategy you want, double click to open, and then click to select the individual strategy file (.EDS file). Some categories are subdivided into sub-categories and placed into sub-folders, in which case you may need to look one level further down to find the individual strategy files.

With the EDS strategy file name displayed in the box labeled File name, click Open to return to the Strategy screen. The path to and name of the EDS file should now appear in the EDS File text box.

When you have completed entries in the Strategy screen, click Next. Continue with step 3 (next page).

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