Education Series Volume III

[Pages:5]Education Series Volume III:

Educational Enrolment and Achievement, 2016

THE SOUTH AFRICA I KNOW, THE HOME I UNDERSTAND

STATS SA

STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA

Education Series Volume III

Educational Enrolment and Achievement, 2016

Report No. 92-01-03

THE SOUTH AFRICA I KNOW, THE HOME I UNDERSTAND

Statistics South Africa

PJ Lehohla Statistician-General

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Education Series Volume III: Educational Enrolment and Achievement, 2016/Statistics South Africa

Published by Statistics South Africa, Private bag X44, Pretoria 0001 Statistics South Africa, 2017 Users may apply or process this data provided Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) is acknowledged as the original source of the data; that is specified that the application and/or analysis is the result of the user's independent processing of the data; and that neither the basic data nor any reprocessed version of application thereof may be sold or offered for sale in any form whatsoever without prior permission from Stats SA. Report No. 92-01-03 ISBN: 978-0-621-45114-6 A complete set of Stats SA publications is available at Stats SA Library and the following libraries: National Library of South Africa, Pretoria Division National Library of South Africa, Cape Town Division Natal Society Library, Pietermaritzburg Library of Parliament, Cape Town Bloemfontein Public Library Johannesburg Public Library Eastern Cape Library Services, King William's Town Central Regional Library, Polokwane Central Reference Library, Nelspruit Central Reference Collection, Kimberley Central Reference Library, Mmabatho This report is available on the Stats SA website .za For technical enquiries, please contact: Seble Worku Tel.: 012 3108480 Email: seblew@.za

Education Series Volume III: Educational Enrolment and Achievement, 2016/Statistics South Africa Report 92-01-03

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Contents

List of figures ............................................................................................................................................. iv List of tables .............................................................................................................................................. vi List of maps ..............................................................................................................................................viii Abbreviations and acronyms ..................................................................................................................... ix Glossary of concepts.................................................................................................................................. x Foreword ..................................................................................................................................................xiii Chapter 1: Introduction...............................................................................................................................1

1.1 Objective of the report ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Background....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 The National Development Plan in relation to education outcomes ................................................. 3 1.4 The Sustainable Development Goals and Education 2030 agenda ................................................. 4 1.5 Trends in enrolment..........................................................................................................................5 1.6 Progression ratios...........................................................................................................................10 1.7 Summary and conclusion ............................................................................................................... 14 Chapter 2: Educational output..................................................................................................................15 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 15 2.2 Educational attainment ................................................................................................................... 15 2.3 Literacy ........................................................................................................................................... 35 2.4 Labour market outcomes ................................................................................................................ 43 2.5 Ordered logit analysis ..................................................................................................................... 45 2.5 Summary and conclusion ............................................................................................................... 47 Chapter 3: Access to education ............................................................................................................... 48 3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 48 3.2 Enrolment at educational institutions .............................................................................................. 48 3.3 Out-of-school children.....................................................................................................................59 3.4 Enrolment by educational attainment of the household head ......................................................... 64 3.4 Expenditure on education ............................................................................................................... 67 3.5 Estimated duration of schooling......................................................................................................67 3.6 Mode of transport used to go to educational institutions ................................................................ 71 3.7 Summary and conclusion ............................................................................................................... 79 Chapter 4: Intergenerational educational mobility .................................................................................... 80 4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 80 4.2 Participation in post-secondary education by education level of the parents ................................. 80 4.3 Educational attainment by parents' education level........................................................................83 4.4 Pattern of dependence between parents' and children's educational levels .................................. 88 4.5 Levels of association between children's educational levels and demographic and other factors . 89 4.6 Summary and conclusion ............................................................................................................... 92 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 93 Appendix .................................................................................................................................................. 94 References ............................................................................................................................................. 104

Education Series Volume III: Educational Enrolment and Achievement, 2016/Statistics South Africa Report 92-01-03

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List of figures

Figure 1. 1: Attendance of pre-school, 2002?1015 .............................................................................. 5 Figure 1. 2: Attendance of Grade R and Grade 1, 2010?2015 .......................................................... 6 Figure 1. 3: Attendance of pre-school by children aged 0?4, 2016 ................................................... 6 Figure 1. 4: Distribution of people aged 15 and above who have completed Grade 12 by single age ............................................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 1. 5: Distribution of people aged 15 and above who have completed post-secondary schooling by single age ............................................................................................................................ 8 Figure 1. 6: Number of students enrolled in post-secondary education in a given academic year per 100 000 inhabitants ............................................................................................................................ 9

Figure 2. 1: Educational attainment among individuals aged 25?64 by population group, 2016 ..............16 Figure 2. 2: Educational attainment among individuals aged 25?64 by gender, 2016 ..............................16 Figure 2. 3: Post-secondary educational attainment among individuals aged 25?64 by province, 2016 ..........................................................................................................................................................17 Figure 2. 4: Educational attainment among individuals aged 25?64 by metropolitan municipality, 2016 ..........................................................................................................................................................20 Figure 2. 5: Educational attainment among individuals aged 25?64 by disability status, 2016.................22 Figure 2. 6: Percentage of adults aged 20 and more who attained an upper secondary education by age group and gender, 2016 .....................................................................................................................22 Figure 2. 7: Upper secondary completion rate by population aged 15 and older by province, 2016 ........23 Figure 2. 8: Upper secondary completion rate by population aged 15 and older by population group, 2016 ..........................................................................................................................................................24 Figure 2. 9: Upper secondary completion rate by age, 2016 ....................................................................25 Figure 2. 10: Upper secondary completion rate among individuals aged 25 years and younger by metro and district, 2016.............................................................................................................................26 Figure 2. 11: Upper secondary completion rate among individuals aged 25 years and younger by province, 2016...........................................................................................................................................27 Figure 2. 12: Highest illiteracy rates for adults aged 35?64 by district, 2016 ............................................36 Figure 2. 13: Adult (age 35?64) literacy rates by disability status, 2016 ...................................................38 Figure 2. 14: Distribution of the adult population aged 25?64 by gender, geo-type and literacy status, 2016 ..........................................................................................................................................................40 Figure 2. 15: Highest illiteracy rates for youth aged 15?34 by district, 2016 .............................................41 Figure 2. 16: Distribution of the population aged 15?34 by geo-type, gender and literacy status, 2016...43 Figure 2. 17: Labour force participation and absorption rates by level of education among population aged 15?64, 2015 .....................................................................................................................................44 Figure 3. 1: Gross enrolment rate in ECD, primary, secondary and post-secondary institutions by

province, 2015 ......................................................................................................................48 Figure 3. 2: Percentage attendance at pre-primary, primary, and secondary institutions by institution type, 2016 .................................................................................................................................................50 Figure 3. 3: Current attendance at post-secondary institutions for individuals aged 17?40 by age, 2016 ..........................................................................................................................................................52 Figure 3. 4: Current attendance at post-secondary institutions among individuals aged 17?40 by gender, 2016 .............................................................................................................................................53 Figure 3. 5: Current attendance at post-secondary institutions for individuals aged 17?40 by population group, 2016 .............................................................................................................................54 Figure 3. 6: Percentage of students at post-secondary institutions by type of institution, 2016 ................55

Education Series Volume III: Educational Enrolment and Achievement, 2016/Statistics South Africa Report 92-01-03

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Figure 3. 7: Distribution of TVET attendance by field of study, 2016 ........................................................57 Figure 3. 8: Distribution of university attendance by field of education, 2016 ...........................................58 Figure 3. 9: Out-of-school children aged 3?15 years by single age, 2016 ................................................60 Figure 3. 10: Out-of-school children aged 3?15 years compared to total children by population group and province, 2016....................................................................................................................................61 Figure 3. 11: Percentage of individuals aged 15?34 by enrolment status and type of settlement, 2016 ..........................................................................................................................................................62 Figure 3. 12: Percentage of individuals aged 15?34 by enrolment status, metro and district, 2016 ........63 Figure 3. 13: Trends in the percentage of enrolments of individuals aged 15?34 by enrolment status, 1996?2016 ................................................................................................................................................64 Figure 3. 14: Household expenditure on education by population group of household head, 2015 .........67 Figure 3. 15: Expected years of schooling for primary, secondary and post-secondary levels by population group, 2016 .............................................................................................................................68 Figure 3. 16: Mean years of schooling by province, 2016 .........................................................................69 Figure 3. 17: Mean years of schooling by population group, 2016............................................................69 Figure 3. 18: Mean years of schooling by metro and district, 2016 ...........................................................70 Figure 3. 19: Percentage of students who walked to educational institutions by geographical area and province, 2016....................................................................................................................................74 Figure 3. 20: Percentage of students who used a hired vehicle to get to educational institutions by province and geographical area, 2016 ......................................................................................................75 Figure 3. 21: Percentage of students who used a private vehicle to get to educational institutions by province and geographical area, 2016 ......................................................................................................76

Education Series Volume III: Educational Enrolment and Achievement, 2016/Statistics South Africa Report 92-01-03

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List of tables

Table 1. 1: South African school phases ............................................................................................... 2 Table 1. 2: Adult Basic Education and Training school level.............................................................. 2 Table 1. 3: Course equivalence............................................................................................................... 3 Table 1. 4: Attendance of pre-school by children aged 0?4 by population group, 2016 ................ 7

Table 2. 1: Educational attainment among individuals aged 25?64 by population group, 2016 ...............15 Table 2. 2: Educational attainment among individuals aged 25?64 by province, 2016.............................17 Table 2. 3: Ten districts with highest educational attainment among individuals aged 25?64, 2016 ........18 Table 2. 4: Ten districts with the lowest educational attainment among individuals aged 25?64, 2016 ...19 Table 2. 5: Percentage of adults aged 20 and more who have attained post-secondary TVET qualification by type of programme and age group, 2016 .........................................................................28 Table 2. 6: Percentage of adults aged 20 and older who have attained a post-secondary TVET qualification by type of programme and population group, 2016...............................................................29 Table 2. 7: Percentage of adult individuals aged 20 and older who have attained a post-secondary university qualification by type of programme and age group, 2016 .........................................................30 Table 2. 8: Percentage of adult individuals aged 20 and older who have attained a post-secondary university qualification by type of programme and population group, 2016 ..............................................31 Table 2. 9: Percentage of adult individuals aged 20 and older who have attained a post-secondary university qualification by type of certificate and population group, 2016 .................................................30 Table 2. 10: Adult (age 35?64) literacy rates by province, 2016 ...............................................................35 Table 2. 11: Distribution of the adult population aged 25?64 by language and literacy status, 2016 .......39 Table 2. 12: Youth (age 15?34) literacy rates by province, 2016..............................................................40 Table 2. 13: Distribution of the population aged 15?34 by literacy status and language, 2016 ................42 Table 2. 14: Unemployment rate by level of education among population aged 15?64, 2008?2015........44 Table 2. 15: Predictor variables affecting educational attainment .............................................................45 Table 2. 16: Odds ratio estimates affecting educational attainment..........................................................46 Table 3. 1: Gross enrolment rate in ECD, primary, secondary and post-secondary institutions by population group, 2015 .............................................................................................................................49 Table 3. 2: Type of educational institution attended by geographical area and gender, 2016 ..................50 Table 3. 3: Type of educational institution attended by geographical area, 2016 .....................................51 Table 3. 4: Individuals aged 15?24 by school attendance status and disability status, 2016 ...................51 Table 3. 5: Student headcount enrolments from 2009 to 2015 at public universities ................................56 Table 3. 6: Individuals aged 15?24 by school attendance status and level of education of the household head, 2016...............................................................................................................................65 Table 3. 7: Individuals aged 15?24 by educational institution attendance status and relationship with the household head, 2016.........................................................................................................................66 Table 3. 9: Mode of transport used by students to get to educational institutions, 2016...........................71 Table 3. 10: Time taken (in minutes) walking to educational institutions by type of geographical area, 2016 ..........................................................................................................................................................72 Table 3. 11: Time taken (in minutes) to drive to educational institutions using hired vehicles, by geographical area, 2016............................................................................................................................72 Table 3. 12: Time taken (in minutes) to drive to educational institutions using private vehicles, by geographical area, 2016............................................................................................................................73 Table 3. 13: Percentage of students who walked to educational institutions by province, geographical area and duration, 2016.......................................................................................................76 Table 3. 14: Percentage of students who used a vehicle hired by a group of parents/students to drive to educational institution by province, geographical area and duration, 2016 ..................................77

Education Series Volume III: Educational Enrolment and Achievement, 2016/Statistics South Africa Report 92-01-03

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Table 3. 15: Percentage of students who used private vehicles to drive to educational institutions by province, geographical area and duration, 2016 .......................................................................................78 Table 3. 16: Time taken (in minutes) to reach educational institutions by walking, or driving in hired or private vehicles by province, 2016 ........................................................................................................78

Education Series Volume III: Educational Enrolment and Achievement, 2016/Statistics South Africa Report 92-01-03

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