Ohio Job Outlook 2016-2026

TO STRENGTHEN OHIO'S FAMILIES WITH SOLUTIONS TO TEMPORARY CHALLENGES

2026 Ohio Job Outlook

Employment Projections

Table of Contents

Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................ 1 Overview ...................................................................................................................................... 2 Ohio Population Trends..............................................................................................................3 Ohio Industry Employment ......................................................................................................7

Industry Sectors.......................................................................................................................7 High-Growth Industry Groups ................................................................................................ 9 Most New Jobs ...................................................................................................................... 10 Ohio Occupational Employment............................................................................................12 Fastest-Growing Occupational Groups ............................................................................... 14 Occupational Groups with the Most New Jobs .................................................................. 14 Occupations with the Most Annual Openings .................................................................... 15 Self-Employment ................................................................................................................... 16 Education and Training ......................................................................................................... 17 Appendix Tables.......................................................................................................................20 A - Ohio Business Types by Industry Sector ....................................................................... 21 B - Ohio Employment Projections Report by Major Industry ............................................ 22 C - Ohio's Top 30 Industries with the Fastest Job Growth.................................................23 D - Ohio's Top 30 Industries with the Most New Jobs ....................................................... 24 E - Ohio's Industry Employment Projections Report .......................................................... 25 F - Ohio Occupational Employment Projections by Occupational Group.........................33 G - Ohio's Fastest Growing Occupations ............................................................................ 34 H - Occupations in Ohio with the Most Annual Openings ................................................. 35 I - Ohio Occupations with at least 1,000 Self-Employed .................................................... 36 J - Ohio Occupational Employment ..................................................................................... 37 K - Ohio Occupational Education and Training Classification ........................................... 54

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Overview

Ohio Job Outlook to 2026

Employment projections are a key product of the Bureau of Labor Market Information. The bureau completes 10-year employment projections every two years and two-year employment projections annually. The projections are based on the most current data available at the time they are made; they are estimates of future employment assuming there are no changes in the current situation. People who use this information include individuals planning their education, training and careers; educational program planners developing training courses and curricula; administrators and legislators responsible for government policies; and business executives planning marketing and personnel strategies.

One key use of the long-term employment projections is the identification of Ohio's indemand occupations. Statistical thresholds for wage, growth and annual openings determine the baseline list of occupations used.1 The list of in-demand jobs is for operational and implementation purposes, specifically to foster cross-agency alignment and to better target job-matching and career-planning services through .

This report presents Ohio employment projections from 2016 to 2026. It is divided into three sections. The "Ohio Population Trends" section presents population projections and historical labor force participation rates. The "Ohio Industry Employment" section presents employment projections for Ohio's goods-producing and service-providing industries. The "Ohio Occupational Employment" section presents employment projections for occupations and occupational groups.

Overall, the Ohio economy is expected to add 253,000 additional jobs between 2016 and 2026, with an expected 664,000 job openings annually.2 The health care and social assistance services industries are expected to add the most jobs, and a large portion of job growth will come from health care occupations. Read more to learn about the growth expectations for Ohio's industries and occupations.

1 Additional factors included are employment patterns for key industry clusters, employer job-forecasting survey data, and assessments by a review committee. 2 Read the New Annual Openings Methodology on page 12 to learn about how a newly adopted method of calculating separation rates has impacted the number of job openings.

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Ohio Population Trends

Ohio's population has been growing more slowly than the national average. While the U.S. population grew 30.3 percent from 1990 to 2017, Ohio's population grew only 7.3 percent (see Figure 1). Nationally, population growth has been trending slower. U.S. population grew 23.8 percent from 1990 to 2000, but only 15.4 percent since 2000. This trend is more pronounced in Ohio, where the state population grew 6.2 percent from 1990 to 2000, but only 2.6 percent since 2000. Figure 1. Population Growth as a Percentage from 1990

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Ohio's slower-than-average growth is likely to continue, as growth rates are expected to nearly flatten in the coming decade (Figure 2). The projected 10-year population growth rate for the U.S. is 8.1 percent, with the working-age population (age 16 and older) expected to grow at a rate of 9.6 percent. In comparison, the projected 10-year population growth rate for Ohio is 0.4 percent, with the working-age population expected to grow at a rate of 1.1 percent. The oldest population group (65 and older) is expected to grow 37.8 percent in the entire U.S. and 25.0 percent in Ohio. While the 25-to-64 age group is expected to increase nationally by 4.1 percent, it is expected to decline in Ohio by 5.5 percent.

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Figure 2. U.S. and Ohio Population Projections (in thousands)

2015

2020

2025

% change 2015-2025

U.S. Total Population Working-Age Population Age 25 to 64 Age 65 and over

Ohio Total Population Working-Age Population Age 25 to 64 Age 65 and over

321,369 256,107 168,689

47,830

11,549 9,228 6,006 1,795

334,503 268,750 173,379

56,441

11,575 9,273 5,874 2,011

Source: Ohio Development Services Agency and U.S. Census Bureau

347,335 280,749 175,664

65,920

11,599 9,328 5,678 2,244

8.1% 9.6% 4.1% 37.8%

0.4% 1.1% -5.5% 25.0%

Even though the total and working-age populations in Ohio have been growing, labor force participation rates have been declining. This means fewer people in the workingage population are working or actively looking for work. In 2000, the labor force participation rate for Ohio was 67.1 percent; by 2016 it had dropped to 62.6 percent.

Figure 3 shows the labor force participation rates for men, women, and the total workingage population from 1990 to 2016.

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