Projections of Education Statistics to 2022

Projections of Education Statistics to 2022

Forty-first Edition

2001188 2200119922002200 2200221122002222

NCES 2014-051

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

Projections of Education Statistics to 2022

Forty-first Edition FEBRUARY 2014

William J. Hussar National Center for Education Statistics Tabitha M. Bailey IHS Global Insight

NCES 2014-051

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

U.S. Department of Education Arne Duncan Secretary

Institute of Education Sciences John Q. Easton Director

National Center for Education Statistics John Q. Easton Acting Commissioner

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reporting data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze, and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish reports and specialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in improving their statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries.

NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, and accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high-quality data to the U.S. Department of Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public. Unless specifically noted, all information contained herein is in the public domain.

We strive to make our products available in a variety of formats and in language that is appropriate to a variety of audiences. You, as our customer, are the best judge of our success in communicating information effectively. If you have any comments or suggestions about this or any other NCES product or report, we would like to hear from you. Please direct your comments to

NCES, IES, U.S. Department of Education 1990 K Street NW Washington, DC 20006-5651

February 2014

The NCES Home Page address is . The NCES Publications and Products address is .

This report was prepared in part under Contract No. ED-08-DO-0087 with IHS Global Insight. Mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Suggested Citation Hussar, W.J., and Bailey, T.M. (2013). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022 (NCES 2014-051). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

For ordering information on this report, write to

ED Pubs, U.S. Department of Education P.O. Box 22207 Alexandria, VA 22304

or call toll free 1-877-4ED-PUBS or order online at .

Content Contact William J. Hussar (202) 502-7359 william.hussar@

Foreword

Projections of Education Statistics to 2022 is the 41st report in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and postsecondary degree-granting institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 and projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2022.

In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2022 at the state level. The projections in this report were produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared for individual states.

Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics. NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state, or local education policies that may affect education statistics.

Appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodology and describes the models and assumptions used to develop the national and state projections. The enrollment models use enrollment data and population estimates and projections from NCES and the U.S. Census Bureau. The models are based on the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future. The models also use projections of economic variables from IHS Global Insight, an economic forecasting service.

The projections presented in this report are based on the 2010 census and assumptions for the fertility rate, internal migration, net immigration, and mortality rate from the Census Bureau. For further information, see appendix A.

John Q. Easton, Acting Commissioner National Center for Education Statistics

Projections of Education Statistics to 2022 iii

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Contents

Page Foreword. iii List of Tables. vii List of Figures. xi

About This Report. 1 Projections .................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Limitations of Projections ............................................................................................................................................. 1

Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment .........................................................................................................3 Introduction. 3 Accuracy of Projections. 3 National. 4 State and Regional (Public School Data)................................................................................................................... 6

Section 2. High School Graduates.7 Introduction. 7 Accuracy of Projections. 7 National. 8 State and Regional (Public School Data). 10

Section 3. Elementary and Secondary Teachers.11 Introduction. 11 Accuracy of Projections. 11 Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools. 12

Section 4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education.15 Introduction. 15 Accuracy of Projections. 15 Current Expenditures. 16

Section 5. Enrollment in Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions..........................................................................19 Introduction. 19 Accuracy of Projections. 19 Total Enrollment. 20 Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution. 21 First-Time Freshmen Enrollment ................................................................................................................................ 24

Projections of Education Statistics to 2022 v

Page Section 6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred.25

Introduction. 25 Accuracy of Projections. 25 Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient. 26 Reference Tables.29 Technical Appendixes.75 Appendix A. Introduction to Projection Methodology..................................................................................................77 A.0. Introduction to Projection Methodology. 77 A.1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment. 84 A.2. High School Graduates. 94 A.3. Elementary and Secondary Teachers. 99 A.4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education. 106 A.5. Enrollment in Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions. 110 A.6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred....................................................................................................................... 128 Appendix B. Supplementary Tables.131 Appendix C. Data Sources.139 Appendix D. References.155 Appendix E. List of Abbreviations...............................................................................................................................157 Appendix F. Glossary.159

viContents

List of Tables

Table 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20.

Page

Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades preK?12, preK?8, and 9?12 in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 31

Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by grade: Fall 1997 through fall 2022................................................................................................................................... 32

Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 33

Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades preK?8 in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 34

Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades 9?12 in public schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 35

Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades preK?12 in public elementary and secondary schools, by region and state: Fall 2004 through fall 2022. 36

Actual and projected percentage changes in grades preK?12 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region and state: Fall 2004 through fall 2022....................................................................................... 38

Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades preK?8 in public schools, by region and state: Fall 2004 through fall 2022. 40

Actual and projected percentage changes in grades preK?8 enrollment in public schools, by region and state: Fall 2004 through fall 2022................................................................................................................................... 42

Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades 9?12 in public schools, by region and state: Fall 2004 through fall 2022. 44

Actual and projected percentage changes in grades 9?12 enrollment in public schools, by region and state: Fall 2004 through fall 2022. 46

Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 1997?98 through 2022?23. 47

Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: School years 1997?98 through 2022?23. 48

Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region and state: School years 2004?05 through 2022?23. 50

Actual and projected percentage changes in public high school graduates, by region and state: School years 2004?05 through 2022?23. 52

Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary teachers and elementary and secondary new teacher hires, by control of school: Fall 1997 through fall 2022............................................................................. 53

Actual and projected numbers for the pupil/teacher ratios in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 54

Actual and projected numbers for current expenditures and current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment for public elementary and secondary education: School years 1997?98 through 2022?23. 55

Actual and projected numbers for current expenditures and current expenditures per pupil in average daily attendance (ADA) for public elementary and secondary education: School years 1997?98 through 2022?23. 56

Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions, by sex, attendance status, and control of institution: Fall 1997 through fall 2022. 57

Projections of Education Statistics to 2022 vii

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