Vehicle Sales Forecasting
[Pages:22]Vehicle Sales Forecasting
Mannard Hunter, Technical Account Manager May 6, 2011
Copyright ? 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
During this session, you will learn how...
Statistical Forecasting can synchronize consumer demand and vehicle production
Manufacture the right types and numbers of vehicles at the right time (Demand-Driven Forecasting)
Predictive Models can synchronize consumer demand and Dealer inventory Determine the right mix of models and options to deliver the right vehicles to the right dealers at the right time (Fastest Moving Vehicle).
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Copyright ? 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Benefits
Match customer demand with plant production Match vehicle configuration with plant capacity
restrictions Optimize plant production schedules Improve Dealer Order Management Improve Inventory Management (reduce Days
on Lot)
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Copyright ? 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
What is Forecasting?
The process of coming up with a best unbiased guess about the future.
Estimating future trends by examining and analyzing available information.
Estimating in unknown situations.
Estimating how a condition will be in the future.
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Copyright ? 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Whats different about Statistical Forecasting ?
Ability to separate signal from noise. Remove human bias/prejudice/"gut instinct." Tease out subtle patterns in the data. Bound uncertainty about the future: confidence
intervals. Identify important "drivers" to enable "what if"
scenario modeling ability. Assess the impact and repeatability of events. Address data issues. Address structural issues (hierarchies).
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Copyright ? 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Results Of Poor Forecasting
Forecast Error
Over-forecast
Under-forecast
Excess Inventory Inventory Holding Cost
Transshipment cost Obsolescence Reduced Margin
Order Expediting Cost Higher Product Cost
Lost "Sales" Cost Lost Companion Product Sales Reduced Customer Satisfaction
Taken from: "How to measure the impact of a forecast error on an enterprise?" by Kenneth B. Kahn
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Copyright ? 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Best In Class Companies in Demand Forecasting are...
2X as likely to have increased market share 56% more likely to have improved gross profit
margin 1.5X more likely to improve order fulfillment 3X more likely to have forecast accuracy > 70%
Source: Aberdeen Group, June 2010
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Copyright ? 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
How Important is a Good Forecast?
A rather simple view that sums it all ...
+ Forecasting Accuracy
? 15%
Inventory
+ 17% Perfect Order
+ 5%
? 35% Cash-to-Cash
EPS
(Earning Per Share)
+ 2.5%
ROA
(Return On Assets)
Profit Margin
Source: AMR/Gartner, January 2005
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Copyright ? 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
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