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CHILDREN AND FAMILIES EDUCATION AND THE ARTS ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE
INFRASTRUCTURE AND TRANSPORTATION
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY
POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TERRORISM AND
HOMELAND SECURITY
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This product is part of the Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS) dissertation series. PRGS dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world's leading producer of Ph.D.'s in policy analysis. The dissertation has been supervised, reviewed, and approved by the graduate fellow's faculty committee.
Dissertation
Three Essays on Education Reform in the United States
Ethan Scherer
COR PORAT ION
Dissertation
Three Essays on Education Reform in the United States
Ethan Scherer
This document was submitted as a dissertation in July 2014 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Jim Hosek (Chair), Paco Martorell, and Jennifer McCombs.
PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL
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Table of Contents
Figures............................................................................................................................................. v Tables ............................................................................................................................................ vii Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgements........................................................................................................................ xi 1. Does Information Change Voter Behavior? An Analysis of California's School Board
Elections.................................................................................................................................... 1
Abstract .................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background on California School Board Elections and Accountability ............................................ 6
1.1.1. California School Board Elections ............................................................................................. 6 1.1.2. Standardized Tests and Accountability in California ................................................................. 9 1.2. Information and Election Timing Framework ................................................................................. 10 1.2.1 Retrospective Voting and Accountability/Information ............................................................. 11 1.2.2. Election Timing ........................................................................................................................ 12 1.3. Data ................................................................................................................................................. 14 1.4. Basic Empirical Model .................................................................................................................... 17 1.5. Results ............................................................................................................................................. 18 1.5.1. The effect of PSAA on incumbent reelection rates in odd years.............................................. 18 1.5.2. The effect of PSAA on incumbent reelection rates in even years ............................................ 19 1.5.3. Robustness checks .................................................................................................................... 21 1.5.4. Decomposition of the treatment effects.................................................................................... 23 1.5.5. The effect of print media on the implementation of PSAA...................................................... 24 1.5.6. The effect of newly elected school board members on API..................................................... 26 1.6. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................... 28
2. Can recruitment and retention bonuses attract teachers to low performing schools? Evidence from a policy intervention in North Carolina ......................................................................... 46
Abstract .................................................................................................................................................. 46 2.1. The structure of the Mission Possible program ............................................................................... 50
2.1.1. Recruitment, Retention, and Performance Bonuses ................................................................. 50 2.1.2. Staff Development.................................................................................................................... 52 2.1.3. Performance Accountability..................................................................................................... 52 2.1.4. Structural Support..................................................................................................................... 52 2.2. Data and methods ............................................................................................................................ 53 2.3. Results ............................................................................................................................................. 59 2.3.1. Description of observable high school teacher changes ........................................................... 59 2.3.2. Difference-in-difference model of Mission Possible ............................................................... 60 2.3.3. Difference-in-difference specification check ........................................................................... 62
iii
2.3.4. The entry and exit of Algebra I teachers .................................................................................. 63 2.4. Conclusion and policy implications ................................................................................................ 64 References .............................................................................................................................................. 67
3. Can principal and teacher bonuses improve student achievement? Evidence from a policy intervention in North Carolina ................................................................................................ 81
Abstract .................................................................................................................................................. 81 3.1 The structure of the Mission Possible program ................................................................................ 85
3.1.1 Recruitment, Retention, and Performance Bonuses .................................................................. 86 3.1.2 Staff Development..................................................................................................................... 87 3.1.3 Performance Accountability ...................................................................................................... 88 3.1.4. Structural Support..................................................................................................................... 88 3.1.5 Comparison of Incentive Design with Prior Random Control Trial Research .......................... 88 3.2. Data and methods ............................................................................................................................ 90 3.3. Results ............................................................................................................................................. 94 3.3.1 Simple difference-in-difference model of Mission Possible on Algebra I test scores .............. 94 3.3.2. Year-by-year difference-in-difference specification ................................................................ 95 3.3.3. Variation in the program's impacts .......................................................................................... 96 3.3.4 Evidence that the size of the recruitment/retention bonus matters ............................................ 97 3.4. Discussion and policy implications ................................................................................................. 98 References ............................................................................................................................................ 101
iv
Figures
Figure 1.1: Turnout rate among registered voters from 1995-2006.............................................. 35 Figure 1.2. Incumbent reelection rates by odd election years since accountability reform.......... 36 Figure 1.3. Incumbent reelection rates by even election years since accountability reform ........ 38 Figure 1.4 ? Articles on the "Academic Performance Index" in California ................................. 43 Figure 2.1: Average percent of teachers with three years or less experience over time by whether
the school is a Mission Possible school. ............................................................................... 73 Figure 2.2: Average percent of teachers fully licensed over time by whether the school is a
Mission Possible school. ....................................................................................................... 74 Figure 2.3: Average turnover rates over time by whether the school is a Mission Possible school.
............................................................................................................................................... 75 Figure 2.4: Distribution of teacher value-added for MP and non-MP schools, before and after the
implementation of MP. ......................................................................................................... 76 Figure 2.5 Difference-in-difference estimates of MP on standardized teacher effectiveness by
year with clustered standard errors and placebo confidence intervals.................................. 78 Figure 3.1: The estimated impact of Mission Possible reform on Algebra I standardized test
scores................................................................................................................................... 109 Figure 3.2: The estimated impact of Mission Possible reform on black students' Algebra I
standardized test scores....................................................................................................... 110 Figure 3.3: The estimated impact of Mission Possible reform on free/reduced price students'
Algebra I standardized test scores....................................................................................... 111 Figure 3.4: The estimated impact of Mission Possible reform on English I standardized test
scores................................................................................................................................... 112
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