Tribeca Trade Group



The Tribeca Trade Group The Week in Review by Christian Fromhertz @cfromhertz US Index performance (5d): SPX -0.4%, DJIA -0.2%, RTY -1.4%, NDX -1.4%, TLT +0.8%. US Markets declined for a second week in a row, but managed to rally on Friday after a dismal jobs report (160k vs 200k expected) reduced expectations of further rate hikes this year. FANG stocks performed particularly well on Friday as AMZN +2.3%, FB +1.4%, GOOGL +1.5%, and NFLX +1.6% all had nice gains. Gold ended the week on a positive note +0.91% after falling Monday – Thursday. Investors took advantage of the weakness in Gold and added +$1.2B in assets to the GLD ETF last week. Crude oil also finished the week with three consecutive positive days after falling a combined 5% on Monday and Tuesday. On Friday night, China reported monthly trade data where exports gained +4.1% vs exp of +4.3% and imports fell -10.1% vs exp of -4.0%.The last two weeks I talked about bearish technicals in the QQQs, which continued their fall by 1.4% last week. In this week’s newsletter, I want to talk about the SPX or S&P futures (ESM6). While many technical studies including the Williams %R, the MACD, and Stochastics provided bearish signals in the last week, it is too soon to tell if the signals will be short lived or if there may be more downside ahead. Further, the S&P closed on its high Friday, and maintained key support which is a win for the bulls. I am watching the bottom of the value area at 2,041.75 as key support. If the S&P breaches this support, the next level of support I see is 2015.5. If the S&P has follow through price action from Friday, I see 2,087 as short term resistance. Another area to watch is fund flows. Equity ETF lost -$14.4B last week, which wiped out more than six weeks of inflows (Bloomberg). Source: ThinkorSwimHere are last week’s sector performers: Best 5d: Worst 5d: Here are last week’s largest International performers: Best 5d: Worst 5d: The Week AheadNext week China reports CPI and PPI figures on Monday, and the Eurozone finance ministers will hold a special meeting on Greece. On Thursday, the Bank of England meets with expectations that they will hold interest rates steady. In the US, Retail Sales, PPI, and U. of Michigan data is out on Friday. ETF Flows for the WeekOverall: Last week Equity ETFs lost a colossal -$14.4B in assets (prior week -$734M). In addition, High Yield ETFs lost -$2.8B. This is a big change in trend from this beginning of this year. SPY, the largest ETF by size, was the chief contributor to the outflows, losing -$6.4B in assets. Next on the list was the QQQs ETF which lost -$2.8B. International ETF lost -$2.9B and in sectors, Health Care -$649M, Tech -$611M, and Industrials -$415M led outflows. Gold (+$1.6B) and gold mining ETF (+$510M) led inflows. On the Fixed Income side, TIP, the iShares TIPS ETF attracted +$538M and LQD, the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF, added +$503M in assets. In International ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs broke the streak of 10 weeks of inflows. Meanwhile European and Japanese ETF continue to shed assets, see below for more details. US / Sectors (5d): Large Caps -$12.7B, Small Caps -$737M, Mid Caps -$342MSector Highlights (largest movers included) Largest Inflows: - Materials +$675M: GDX +$322M, GDXJ +$189M, XME -$49M - REITs +$406M: VNQ +$274M, SCHH +$55M, REM +$52M, IYR -$91M Largest Outflows: - Health Care -$649M: XLV -$446M, IBB -$122M - Tech -$611M: XLK -$245M, SMH -$135M, SOXX -$69M, IYW -$61M, IGM -$33M- Industrials -$415M: XLI -$412M- Utilities -$279M: XLU -$225M, XLE +$70M, AMLP -$63M - Consumer Discretionary -$184M: XRT -$122MInternational (5d):International ETFs -$2.9BCountry/ Region specific ETFs:Largest Inflows:- NONELargest Outflows:- Europe -$1.2B: EZU -$603M, EWG -$208M, HEDJ -$170M, VGK -$150M, FEZ -$44M- China -$531M: FXI -$535M- Japan -$377M: EWJ -$256M, DXJ -$173M, HEWJ +$68M- Mexico -$154M: EWW -$154M- South Korea -$148M: EWY -$148MLargest Flows by Fund ETFs of the Week:UUP (the US Dollar ETF): In last week’s newsletter, UUP was profiled for breaking support. However, last week it gained +0.9% and is trying to get back above support. Something to keep an eye on because of the implications the US Dollar has on commodities and multi-national corporations. Source: ThinkorSwimEZU (iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF): European shares climbed on Friday, but examining a weekly chart in EZU shows a failure at the bottom of value. In addition, the ETF continues to see outflows. Last week the EZU lost -$603M in assets or 5% of the fund. FXI (iShares China Large-Cap ETF): Similar to the EZU chart, FXI also failed to climb into value and lost -4.2% last week. The China ETF has moved sideways the 2 months and has not seen much activity in the ETF market, until last week when the FXI ETF saw -$534M in outflows. After not hearing much from China in the last two months it may be an area to short. Source: ThinkorSwimStocks to Watch (from Pat Harris @pharris667)POOLPool Corporation distributes swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products in North America, Europe, South America, and Australia. The company offers approximately 160,000 national brand and its own-branded products. Long set-up just added to IBD 50EWEdwards Lifesciences Corporation provides products and technologies to treat structural heart disease and critically ill patients worldwide. It offers transcatheter heart valve therapy products. Signs of nice reversal Fri afternoon.ULTAUlta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer in the United States. Its stores provide cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, and salon styling tools. One of the best retailers not named Amazon.MHKMohawk Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures, sources, distributes, and markets flooring products for remodeling and new constructions of residential and commercial spaces worldwide. One of the most upgraded stocks in the last 2 weeks.AGNAllergan plc, a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes medical aesthetics, biosimilar, and over-the-counter pharmaceutical products worldwide. It operates through US Brands, Big reversal Friday afternoon Reports May 10. LMTLockheed Martin Corporation, a security and aerospace company, engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of technology systems, products, and services worldwide. Long set-up.MKTXMarketAxess Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates an electronic trading platform that enables fixed-income market participants to trade corporate bonds and other types of fixed-income instruments worldwide. Long set-up thing that impressed me was trended higher from Wed. thru Fri.WYNNSteve Wynn has this company on the way back regardless of WFC downgrade on Fri-Insider Purchases here.AMWDAmerican Woodmark Corporation manufactures and distributes kitchen cabinets and vanities for the remodeling and home construction markets in the United States. Form 4 filings and nice set-up coming into summer.Other stocks I'm watching for this week SBUX CSCO MSFT. TSLA Possible short as company bonus' paid and Black-out period ends Monday.Copyright ? Tribeca Trade Group. All of the information in this newsletter is for entertainment and educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or trading advice. 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