Sarkozy visit to Damascus signals thaw in relationsIan ...



[pic]

Fri. 8 Apr. 2011

LATIMES

➢ Syrian leader seeks to calm Kurdish unrest……..…………..1

FINANCIAL TIMES

➢ Assad offers sop to head off protests………………………..3

ARAB NEWS

➢ Syrians in Kingdom want reform, but no turmoil……..…….5

FOREIGN POLICY

➢ Israeli president calls for democracy in Syria……………….7

THE NEW AGE

➢ Syria has reform option to stifle regime change…………...11

HAARETZ

➢ Wikileaks: Bahrain King boasted of intelligence ties with Israel……………………………………………………..…15

GUARDIAN

➢ US embassy cables: Arms smuggling into Lebanon and the Gaza Strip…………………………………………..………16

➢ Latest WikiLeaks cables reveal Israel's fears and alliances..20

WASHINGTON POST

➢ Amid the Arab Spring, Obama’s dilemma over Saudi Arabia…By Martin Indyk…………………………….……23

WALL ST. JOURNAL

➢ Egyptians Back Diplomat In Poll, Show Secular Bent.……26

HOME PAGE

Syrian leader seeks to calm Kurdish unrest

As minority Kurds join the pro-democracy movement, President Bashar Assad announces that the long suppressed community in the northeast will be given citizenship rights.

By Garrett Therolf and Alexandra Sandels,

Los Angeles Times

April 8, 2011

Reporting from Cairo and Beirut

Syrian President Bashar Assad made new concessions Thursday to the country's minority Kurdish population after some members joined pro-democracy demonstrators, threatening to create a new flank in Assad's political crisis.

The government said it would grant citizenship to hundreds of thousands of Kurds in the northeast who have been counted as illegal immigrants since a controversial census in 1962. That left them unable to secure public sector jobs, passports and other basic citizenship rights.

Kurds in the northeast demonstrated last Friday calling for citizenship, economic relief and the release of political prisoners.

On Tuesday, the government released 48 Kurdish political prisoners who had been held for a year, a Syrian human rights group said Thursday.

"What the regime is doing is a positive step toward the Kurds," said Sherkoh Abbas, a Kurdish human rights activist who also expressed solidarity with the larger pro-democracy movement. "Of course, all Syrians should be part of this process."

Meanwhile, the larger protest movement approached a potentially pivotal moment as organizers planned for renewed demonstrations despite an intense security crackdown that has left their ranks in the streets diminished.

Human rights activists cautioned that despite heightened hopes after the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, even the most optimistic advocates did not believe the Assad family's four-decade rule in Syria would come to a swift end.

"Syria's diversity and the decimated state of its civil society … create a different set of conditions that will make the pace of progress of the revolution not necessarily slow, but episodic," said Ammar Abdulhamid, a prominent Syrian human rights activist living in the United States.

Scattered protests were reported throughout the country Thursday — the 64th anniversary of the formation of the Baath Party, which has been in power here since 1963 — and larger demonstrations were expected Friday.

"All of Damascus' suburbs have caught the bug: to the north, At Tall; to the east, Kafar Batna, Duma, Harasta and Saqba; to the west, Mouaddamiyyah; and to the south, Kisweh," Abdulhamid said. "What has long been known as the Poverty Belt is now the Revolution Belt."

Some protests near the capital have focused on sectarian issues while others have pressed the religious agenda of conservative Sunni Muslims.

In response, state media reported this week that the government would close a controversial casino. It also announced the rehiring of schoolteachers dismissed last year for wearing a niqab, the veil that covers the entire face except the eyes.

Protests in other parts of the country — including the epicenter of Dara in the south, and Homs in the west —have focused on economic deprivation and government corruption.

The governor of Dara was dismissed several weeks ago, and state media reported Thursday the firing of the governor in Homs, a close friend of Assad.

"But the most important thing right now is the assurance of the right of the peaceful demonstration," said Radwan Ziadeh, a Syrian human rights advocate who teaches at George Washington University. "It's clear that Bashar Assad can't allow it."

HOME PAGE

Assad offers sop to head off protests

By Roula Khalaf in London

Financial Times,

April 7 2011

President Bashar al-Assad of Syria is doling out concessions to Kurds and religious conservatives in an attempt to mollify two groups that are seen by the Ba’athist regime as engines of mobilisation for pro-democracy protests.

Amid fresh calls for demonstrations on Friday in Kurdish areas and in Douma, a conservative suburb of Damascus, the president issued a decree granting citizenship to tens of thousands of Kurds, addres­sing a long-held grievance for a group that makes up 10-15 per cent of the population.

The concessions coincided with confirmation by a human rights group of the release of 48 Kurds arrested over the past three weeks in unprecedented protests inspired by Arab uprisings elsewhere.

Earlier this week, the government lifted a ban on teachers wearing the niqab, the face veil, reversing a decision that had been hailed last year as a symbol of Syria’s attachment to secular values.

In another sop to conservative Muslims, the government ordered the closure of a casino and is reportedly set to allow the establishment of a religious satellite television channel.

Faced with the threat of mass popular protests in a state where intelligence services have been able to control society, the regime appears to be trying to appease specific social forces to prevent the emergence of a nationwide movement.

“The regime has been in a state of shock in the face of people who are demanding freedom and they think that Kurds and Islamists are behind the protests,” says Masood Akko, a Kurdish activist. “The Kurds and the Islamists are part of the protests, but they do not account for everything that’s happening.”

Kurdish activists say the citizenship decree on its own is unlikely to satisfy their community and they will continue to press for freedom, as well as recog­nition of their national rights as a non-Arab minority.

In a country where the Sunni majority is ruled by a leadership drawn from the Alawite minority, an offshoot of Shia Islam, the secular nationalist Ba’ath regime claims to rise above sectarian divisions, which it considers a menace to ­stability.

The government says the pro-democracy protests are an attempt to sow sectarian strife.

“The regime says it’s against sectarianism and communal identity but it is dealing with the demands of protesters in a sectarian way that promotes different communal interests,” says Nadim Houri, Syria researcher for Human Rights Watch. “It’s the old divide-and-rule strategy.”

Protests have been met with a crackdown that has left more than 70 people dead. As demonstrations catch on in some towns, others are put down by the authorities. For the past week, the focus of the protests has been Douma, on the Damascus outskirts, where at least 10 people are believed to have been killed last Friday.

A statement from Douma residents on opposition websites said businesses were shut this week in protest at the killing of demonstrators. The residents outlined their demands, including an investigation into the violence and the freedom to protest peacefully.

HOME PAGE

Syrians in Kingdom want reform, but no turmoil, back home

JEDDAH: Syrians living in Saudi Arabia have expressed worry about the protests in Syria that started three weeks ago. They hope that President Bashar Assad would introduce political and economic reforms without sinking the country into turmoil.

By DIANA AL-JASSEM

ARAB NEWS

Apr 8, 2011

Most Syrians in the Kingdom say they did not know whether to believe media coverage of the large-scale protests.

After the president’s speech Syrians became optimistic and were happy to wait for reforms without protesting.

“We can realize our dreams because now we can express our opinion and voice our demands. I cannot deny that previously we were not free to express our views or press our demands, but this had been the situation in most Arab countries,” said Kamel Al-Shami, a Syrian teacher who has been working for a private intermediate school in Jeddah for 10 years.

“Actually, I want change, but with President Assad remaining in office. Since he became president 11 year ago I have been expecting many changes. There have been noticeable changes in the economy, as most employees are getting higher salaries. But this is not enough as we are looking to end corruption in the government.”

Nadia Mukhles, a Syrian engineer who has lived in the Kingdom for 20 years, believes the protests in Syria was the result of foreign meddling.

“Like many Syrians in the Kingdom, I watched with concern what was happening in the country on TV and on the Internet. I spoke with my relatives who live in Latakia and they said things were not as dark as portrayed in the media. The phone calls were the only way to make sure,” she said.

“The Syrian TV channels played a very important role in calming the Syrian people down, especially when they exposed information, videos and pictures that had come from other countries as fake.”

Dr. Rami Al-Rehani, a Syrian doctor who left the country 30 years ago to live in Saudi Arabia, confirmed that he was looking for change and revolution but the damage that occurred in Egypt and Libya left him frustrated.

“Unfortunately, most Arabs misunderstood the real meaning of revolution. They created damage everywhere in the country. President Assad realized that he should introduce changes and announced them in Parliament before discussing why he had delayed reforms that he had promised in 2005,” he said.

“As a Syrian citizen who loves his country and president, I prefer to wait and see. President Assad did announce a number of reforms one day after his latest speech. He also thanked the Syrian people who trust and support him. The president’s latest speech encouraged me and many Syrians to ask for reforms, not his resignation.”

Muthana Al-Battah, a mechanic, believed that Syrians could learn from reform movements in other countries without having to resort to violence.

“We didn't have to have a revolution. When people took to streets voicing their demands, President Assad immediately issued a number of quick decisions,” he said.

According to Al-Battah, Assad claimed he was unable to quickly implement reforms due to political instability and military conflicts in Iraq and Lebanon.

“Why don’t we wait till he implements what he announced last week?” Al-Battah asked.

“The second day after his speech, he created an authority to study the possibility of removing emergency laws. He also confirmed that this authority would finish its work before April 25. Salaries were increased on April 1.”

All Syrian people who spoke to Arab News were very optimistic following President Assad’s speech. They were also happy with the decisions he made after his speech. They also noticed a great change in Syria's state media.

“I have watched Syrian television for 30 years. Over the last three weeks I noticed a great change in the nature of its coverage,” said Aslan Qustanitine, a Syrian engineer who has been living in Saudi Arabia for two years.

“They became free to show the reality of Syrian streets. They visited people and asked them to say their demands loudly. Citizens were not hesitant in calling for an end to corruption and more media freedom.”

HOME PAGE

Israeli president calls for democracy in Syria

Josh Rogin,

Foreign Policy,

7 Apr. 2011,

Israeli President Shimon Peres on Tuesday called for the international community to support a transition to democracy in Syria and also called for support for other youth movements around the Middle East.

"I believe that finally a democratic system in Syria is our best bet for the future," Peres said at Tuesday night's dinner hosted at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP). CNN's Wolf Blitzer moderated a question and answer session and probed Peres to explain Israel's stance on a range of pressing regional issues.

"The president of Syria was self assured that the people are in love with him; well, it emerged as an illusion," said Peres. "In politics you have to distinguish between support and supporters. Support exists as long as you own the government, when you're in crisis the supporters disappear."

Peres said that Israel was ready to give up the Golan Heights as part of an overarching peace deal with Syria, but only if Damascus would totally reject its alliance with Tehran and its dependence on Iranian support.

"If Syria will divorce the Iranians and the Hezbollah we are very close. If they want to have it both ways then nothing will happen," he said.

The dinner event at the USIP's brand new landmark headquarters on Constitution Avenue was hosted by the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace and its executive director former Congressman Robert Wexler. Award-winning Israeli violinist Kobi Malkin performed for the audience of diplomats, lawmakers, officials, and journalists.

Speaking more broadly about the region, Peres repeated his call for advancing the Middle East peace process as a means of supporting and aligning with the wave of revolutions sweeping the Arab world.

"In order to enable the young generation to take over and go their way, we have to find a solution for the conflict between us and the Palestinians. I would like to see that our conflict will follow the nature of these awakenings," Peres said.

The Israeli president said that Israel supports the transition to democracy ongoing in Egypt, despite the possibility that the new government might not be as reliable as the old regime in supporting the peace process.

"I have to be fair and say that President Mubarak played one role that we appreciated very much and that was to prevent another war in the Middle East -- and we shall never forget it," he said. "But I think the fact that the young generation took over and tried to tell their people, we have to join in the new age of modern life and we cannot go on with corruption, division, dictatorship -- I think it's a good opening which is needed for the Egyptians and we welcome it very much.

Peres said that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt could very well be a large political player in the next Egyptian government -- but will never be the majority and do not represent the solution to Egypt's problems.

"Suppose they'll pray ten times a day. Will this solve the problems of Egypt? The problems of Egypt are not prayers, but poverty. And many of the young people understand this. And they may have overplayed their hand."

Peres's call for change and democracy did not extend to Jordan, however, where he said the international community should support and help King Abdullah II.

"He is a responsible leader who is trying to serve his people," he said. "He is in a very difficult situation economically. And if we are really serious, we have to help him to overcome the economic difficulties."

Peres also said that any Israelis who think that President Barack Obama isn't a strong supporter of Israel are wrong. He noted that Obama told him -- and has shown through his deeds -- that the U.S. president will always place Israel's security at the top of his priority list.

"I trust the president. I think he is serious. I think he has a dilemma that all of us have. The dilemma is between following the call of values, the primacy of the moral choice, and the realistic situation which is not necessarily as moral as you would like it to be," he said.

Government officials in attendance included Sens. Chris Coons, Frank Lautenberg, and Bill Nelson; Reps. Gary Ackerman, Shelley Berkley, Dan Burton, Steve Cohen, Ted Deutch, Jim Moran, Jerrold Nadler, Nancy Pelosi, David Price, and Jan Schakowsky; State Department Coordinator for International Energy Affairs Richard Morningstar Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Near East Affairs; Ronald Schlicker; Director of the State Department Office of Israel & Palestinian Affairs Paul Sutphin; and Deputy Secretary for Near East Affairs Jacob Walles.

Diplomats in attendance included Israeli Ambassador Michael Oren, Jordanian Ambassador Alia Hatoug-Bouran, E.U. Ambassador Jo?o Vale de Almeida, Azerbaijan Ambassador Yashar Aliyev, Cyprus Ambassador Pavlos Anastasiades, Georgian Ambassador Temuri Yakobashvili, Chief Representative of the PLO Maen Areikat, and representatives from the embassies of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Netherlands, Poland, Switzerland, Czech Republic, and Egypt.

Most of the guests were getting their first look at the lavish USIP building, which was built with more than $100 million in taxpayer funds and approximately $50 million in private donations. Several guests noted the irony of unveiling the new building right in the middle of a huge government fight -- in which Republicans passed a bill that would completely eliminate the $41 million annual budget of USIP.

The building itself represents the cooperation of Jews and Muslims from the Middle East. The building was designed by an Israeli architect, the huge dove-shaped sculpture that makes up a large part of the roof was designed by an Iranian artist, and a large chunk of the private funding came from a donor in the UAE.

HOME PAGE

Analysis: Syria has reform option to stifle regime change

Shannon Field

The New Age (South African newspaper),

8 Apr. 2011,

For all the talk under the Bush administration about Syria being part of the “axis of evil”, the Obama administration views Syria through a different paradigm – which sees rapprochement as more in line with US national interests.

Despite the calls for regime change accompanying the wave of anti-government demonstrations in a number of Syrian cities, the US and Israel may have more to gain by encouraging reform in the country as opposed to supporting the unseating of the regime.

For one, the Syrian-Israeli border has remained quiet for more than 40 years, and the US administration has reason to believe that the Syrian leader is ready to sign a peace deal with Israel, once Israel proves itself committed to real peace. Prior to Israel’s Gaza campaign in December 2008, Syria had been engaged in a year of negotiations over the Golan Heights with Israel through Turkish intermediaries – and they were reaching consensus.

In the wake of the Gaza campaign, Assad had reacted by calling on the Arab world to boycott Israel, close Israeli embassies and sever ties. In recent times, Assad confirmed his willingness to close a deal, but pointed to the absence of an Israeli partner in this regard. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has responded to developments on the ground in Syria by condemning the violence, urging restraint, but most importantly calling Assad a reformer, in stark contrast to her commentary on Hosni Mubarak.

The tacit support for Assad is also due to concern about what elements would fill the power vacuum were he to be deposed.

The Muslim Brotherhood has not enjoyed broad support in Syria following the massacre in Hama of about 25000 civilians by the regime, when the Muslim Brotherhood rose against the Baathists between 1976 and 1982.

With membership of the Muslim Brotherhood punishable by death under emergency legislation, the organisation has not had much opportunity to re-establish itself in Syria subsequent to the massacre in Hama.

Assessing the balance of forces in the country, the Muslim Brotherhood does not present itself as a serious contender for political power, but the regime does blame obscure Islamist groups with supposed links to al Qaeda for fomenting unrest in the country, such as Jund as-Sham and Fatah al-Islam.

The possibility of any combination of these elements coming to power in Syria – with even closer ties to Iran and holding even more hawkish attitudes towards Israel – is of great concern to the Americans.

If the current regime retains its hold on power it is a regime deeply committed to secularism. While the US knows that Assad is unlikely to sever support to Hamas or Hezbollah, the hope remains that he could play a moderating role with these movements, thereby diluting the influence of Iran.

It would also seem that the Syrian president is increasingly committed to move the reform agenda forward, despite the defiant tone of his March 30 speech in which he made it clear that Syria would not be dictated to – depicting Syria once again as the guardian of Arab dignity and sovereignty. Assad blamed the demonstrations in Syria as the work of foreign conspirators engaged in sedition – which had to be fought against by every patriotic Syrian.

Despite the allegations of conspiracies, real or imagined, Assad has already taken tangible steps to placate the demonstrators by firing his cabinet, establishing committees to examine the emergency laws, political pluralism, and to probe the deaths of civilian demonstrators.

In his speech, he acknowledged the grievances of his citizens, referring to their unfulfilled material needs, the calls for real political and governance reforms, and action against corruption.

Preferring, as always, to focus on economic discontent as opposed to political, he has announced increases to the salaries of civil servants and suggested that Syria has learnt from what he perceives to be the lessons of the Tunisian revolution – that being the need for a fairer distribution of wealth.

In terms of a prognosis, we can expect a continuation of economic reforms, with a greater opening up of the economy, and at least some political ones. But the fundamentals of the police state are likely to remain as the regime feels under increasing pressure from its perceived enemies.

Assad went into great detail in his speech about the well-coordinated strategy being deployed by Syria’s enemies, who initially used the social media to call for a “Day of Rage,” which fizzled out despite the country’s burgeoning youth who are enduring similar socio-economic challenges to those in Egypt and Tunisia.

Assad then alleged that when the campaign against the government failed to escalate, the strategy evolved to stoking sectarian divisions between the country’s ruling Alawite minority (a sect of Shia Islam) and its majority Sunni population.

This was supposedly done through smses warning that one group was planning armed attacks against another. The regime argues that there are highly organised support groups in the various governorates that are linked to groups abroad.

If pressed, senior Syrian officials would probably point to Saudi Arabia as one of the culprits.

Fuelling suspicions has been the fact that Saudi-backed Al Arabiya has been found to have fabricated footage of demonstrations within Syria.

There are also the old fears of Western plots, particularly given the regime change plans of 2003 that American neo-conservatives wanted carried out – following what they hoped would be a successful invasion of Iraq.

For as long as the regime believes it is under seige from outside forces, which has been its mantra for decades, it is unlikely to rein in the power and influence of its Mukhabarat (intelligence) and security forces.

There may be a return to some of the tenets of what was called the Damascus spring of 2000, when Assad took over power from his father and allowed lively social debate as well as dialogue forums to flourish.

There may even be some concessions on allowing the formation of political parties outside of the National Progressive Front, a block of 10 parties dominated by the Baath party.

But, for as long as approximately 20% of the population remain on the payroll of the intelligence agencies, and human rights abuses remain a reality to many, such reforms may not be enough for the country’s youth, even if it is for the Americans.

Shannon Field is an independent political analyst.

HOME PAGE

Haaretz Wikileaks exclusive / Bahrain King boasted of intelligence ties with Israel

According to latest trove of documents revealed by WikiLeaks, the Bahraini King instructed that official statements stop referring to Israel as the 'Zionist entity' or 'enemy.'

By Yossi Melman

Haaretz,

8 Apr. 2011,

The Bahraini King bragged about intelligence contacts with Israel, and instructed that official statements stop referring to Israel as the "Zionist entity," according to the latest trove of documents revealed by WikiLeaks.

On February 15, 2005, U.S. ambassador to Bahrain William Monroe met with the leader of the small kingdom, Hamad ibn Isa Al Khalifa - the same king whose position is now threatened by popular protests.

After that meeting, Monroe wrote to Washington that "He [the king] revealed that Bahrain already has contacts with Israel at the intelligence/security level (ie with Mossad) and indicated that Bahrain will be willing to move forward in other areas."

Monroe also said the meeting was amiable and that the two sat near the fireplace on a cold and unusually wet day. Their conversation lasted about an hour and a half, and at some point moved to the subject of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The king said he was pleased with the developments in the peace process.

He also revealed to the ambassador that he had instructed his public information minister to stop referring to Israeli in official statements of the kingdom as the "enemy" or the "Zionist entity."

Monroe asked the Bahraini king whether he would agree to have trade relations with Israel. According to the telegram, the king thought it was too early and that the matter would have to wait until after a Palestinian state was established.

HOME PAGE

US embassy cables: Arms smuggling into Lebanon and the Gaza Strip

Guardian,

7 Apr. 2011,

Cable dated:2009-11-18T14:32:00

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002501

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2019

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MOPS, PTER, KWBG, EG, IR, LE, IS

SUBJECT: 40TH JPMG: COUNTERSMUGGLING TECHNICAL DISCUSSION (PART 2 OF 4)

Classified By: A/DCM Marc Sievers, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (S) Summary: Concurrent to the Joint Political Military Group (JPMG) Executive Session, IDF J5 and Israel Defense Intelligence (IDI) officers briefed U.S. JPMG delegation members on current arms transfers and weapons smuggling into Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. IDF J5 and IDI officers first focused on arms transfers to Hizballah in Lebanon via Iran and Syria, and provided current estimates of Hizballah arms. IDF J5 and IDI officers argued that Hizballah's ultimate goal during any future conflict is to launch a massive number of missiles and rockets daily into Israeli territory, including those that can reach the Tel Aviv area. J5 and IDI also described the sophisticated smuggling routes from Iran into the Gaza Strip, arguing that Hamas is now more powerful than prior to Operation Cast Lead. IDF J5 and IDI officers noted improved countersmuggling efforts by Egypt, but stressed more must be done to curb smuggling into Gaza. This is the second of four cables (septel) reporting on the 40th Joint Political Military Group. End summary.

2. (SBU) Israeli attendees included representatives from the IDF J5, IDI, Shin Bet, and Mossad. The U.S. delegation was led by PM Coordinator for Counter Piracy Robert Maggi, and included PM/RSAT John Schwenk, OSD Israel Desk Officer Eric Lynn, J5 Israel Desk Officer LTC Alan Simms, U.S. DAO Tel Aviv Assistant Air Attache Matt Yocum, EUCOM LCDR Molly McCabe, and U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv political-military officer Jason Grubb.

3. (S) Maggi stressed the importance of and noted progress with counter-smuggling efforts into Gaza -- but also acknowledged the GOI desire to see even further progress. He said the USG was looking for practical ideas to improve counter-smuggling efforts. IDF J5 officers argued that smuggling represents a strategic challenge for the GOI, which is facing a proliferation of knowledge and capabilities that are severely limiting Israel's diplomatic options for peace. IDF J5 made the case that weapons and knowledge proliferate from state actors, which disrupts diplomatic regional efforts. IDF J5 highlighted "regional faultlines," with the United States and Iran leading two opposing camps -- and countries such as China, Russia, and Qatar remaining on the sidelines with unclear intentions.

4. (S) IDI officers briefed on arms "deliveries" to the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, making the case with the latter that these arms transfers were done openly and should not be considered smuggling. IDI noted that since 2006, Hizballah has increased its quantity of sophisticated arms with improved range and accuracy -- these arms were acquired via Syria and Iran despite the presence of UNIFIL and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). IDI highlighted the continued desire by Hizballah to avenge the assassination of its former military commander Imad Mughniyah, and pointed to failed attempts to do so in Azerbaijan and Egypt. Finally, IDI reviewed the arms delivery route from Syria to Lebanon via the Beqa'a Valley, and then to points south through Beirut.

5. (S) IDI presented estimates of Hizballah arms in Lebanon, including a breakdown of arms south of the Litani River. According to the IDI, Hizballah possesses over 20,000 rockets, hundreds of 220 mm and 302 mm rockets, several hundred "Fajr" rockets, hundreds of simple anti-tank (AT) launchers with rockets and missiles, and hundreds of advanced anti-tank wire guided missiles (ATGM), dozens of SA-14, SA-7, and QW-1 anti-aircraft guns, several Ababil unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), an unknown quantity of C-802 coastal missiles and up to thousands of improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

6. (S) Given this arsenal, Maggi asked what the IDF thought Hizballah's intentions were. IDI officers opined that Hizballah was preparing for a long conflict with Israel in which it hopes to launch a massive number of rockets at Israel per day. IDI officers noted in the 2006 Second Lebanon War, Tel Aviv was left untouched -- Hizballah will try to change the equation during the next round and disrupt everyday life in Tel Aviv. A Mossad official noted that Hizballah will want to ensure it can launch rockets and missiles to the very last day of the conflict, i.e., avoid running out of munitions. He estimated that Hizballah will try to launch 400-600 rockets and missiles at Israel per day -- 100 of which will be aimed at Tel Aviv. He noted that Hizballah is looking to sustain such launches for at least two months.

7. (S) IDI then shifted focus to the Gaza Strip, describing three circles of arms smuggling: 1. arms sources and

TEL AVIV 00002501 002 OF 002

financing, such as Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and unfettered arms markets such as Eritrea and Yemen, and possibly China; 2. transit areas and states such as the Red Sea, Yemen, Sudan, Syrian, Lebanon, and Libya; and finally, 3. the "close circle" along the Sinai-Egyptian border and Philadelphi route. Maggi asked what percentage of arms transfers occurred via land, sea and air. IDI noted that it was difficult to determine: smugglers tend to prefer the naval route -- as there are fewer obstacles -- but the last segment almost always occurred overland. IDF J5 added that land smugglers are learning from past experience and building new overland "bypasses." When asked about air routes from Iran over Turkey, IDI officials indicated that Turkey has been made aware of such activity, although a Mossad representative suggested Turkey may not be entirely aware of the extent of such activity, given the IRGC's smuggling expertise. The GOI highlighted that focusing solely on the last phase of smuggling (e.g. along the Philadelphi route) would only lead to limited success, and that wider efforts were key.

8. (S) IDI also provided an analysis of weapons entering Gaza following Operation Cast Lead. IDI noted that one of the goals of Cast Lead was to damage Hamas' ability to produce its own weapons. In this regard, the IDF was successful, but Hamas is reconstituting its capabilities. According to the IDI, Hamas possibly possesses a few rockets with ranges over 40 km -- perhaps as far as 60-70 km, or within range of Tel Aviv. In addition, the IDI believes Hamas possesses quality AT systems such as the Kornet PG-29 and quality anti-aircraft artillery (AAA). These weapons join an already potent arsenal including Grad rockets with ranges up to 40 km, ammonium perchlorate (APC) oxidizer for indigenous rocket production, hundreds of 120, 80 and 60 mm MBs, dozens of mortars, C5 K air-to-surface rockets, PG-7 AT rockets and launchers, SA-7 MANPADS, PKS AAA MGs and thousands of rounds of ammunition, and quality AT, such as Sagger missiles and launchers, and light anti-tank weapon (LAW) rockets.

9. (S) IDF J5 presented some basic benchmarks for possible countersmuggling solutions for Gaza. First, Egyptian national commitment is required. Other benchmarks outlined by the IDF included a clear chain of command, control of the Sinai and its inhabitants, systematic treatment of tunnel infrastructure, trial and imprisonment of smugglers, and overcoming traditional failures such as bribery and lack of coordination. IDF J5 noted that Egyptian Intelligence Minister Soliman has been supportive, while there is growing awareness on the part of Egyptian Defense Minister Tantawi -- who the IDF views as an obstacle to counter-smuggling efforts. However, IDF J5 said there is a lack of coordination between the Egyptian Army and intelligence service on counter-smuggling efforts.

10. (S) The IDF has observed a more systematic response by Egypt in recent months, including assigning guards to newly discovered tunnel entries, or even blowing up tunnels -- by IDF estimates, the Egyptian Army has collapsed 20-40 tunnels in the last 4-5 months. Nevertheless, the IDF continues to see a lack of urgency on the part of Egypt regarding smuggling into the Sinai; little attention has been paid to improving the socio-economic conditions of Bedouins primarily responsible for Sinai smuggling. While Egypt has made several key arrests -- including prominent smuggler Muhammad Sha'er -- others are still at large. Finally, the IDF noted the construction of an underground barrier and sensors' network -- but in many cases, the smugglers have dug deeper tunnels to avoid the network.

11. (S) The IDF J5 outlined consultations with geology and tunnel experts, whom suggested several possible solutions to the Sinai-Gaza tunneling network: constant and specific mine activity in the vicinity of the border to a depth of 20-30 meters; the use of a shock device or stun charge, or smoke at a tunnel entrance for deterrence purposes; constructing underground obstacles 90 meters deep to destabilize current tunnel infrastructure; close supervision and inspection of buildings in urban areas, in which there is a high concentration of trucks and newly built rooftops and roads; and the arrest of major smugglers -- such as Darwish Madi -- and utilization of interrogation to discover major tunnels and dismantle smuggling networks.

12. (U) PM Coordinator for Counter Piracy Maggi has cleared this cable. CUNNINGHAM

HOME PAGE

Latest WikiLeaks cables reveal Israel's fears and alliances

Julian Assange hands over tranche of secret files to newspapers in Israel on its co-operation with US and view of neighbours

David Leigh and James Ball

Guardian,

Thursday 7 April 2011

Mohammed Tantawi, the head of Egypt's ruling generals, was an obstacle to Israeli efforts to stop arms smuggling within the Gaza strip, according to Israeli security forces. The assessment was privately delivered to US diplomats, alongside praise for former intelligence chief Omar Suleiman's efforts to stop weapons trafficking, according to the WikiLeaks embassy cables.

The revelations come in a tranche of the most militarily sensitive cables from the US embassy in Tel Aviv. They have been handed over to Israeli newspapers by WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.

The Hebrew-language paper Yediot this week announced a deal under which it will print an interview with Assange, who has recently had to defend WikiLeaks from accusations of antisemitism.

The cables show intimate co-operation between US and Israeli intelligence organisations. Israel's preoccupation with Iranian nuclear ambitions is well known and the US cables detail the battering on the subject that diplomats repeatedly receive from Tel Aviv.

They also shed detailed and sometimes unexpected light on Israel's military analyses of its other enemies and friends in the region.

Egypt is the primary route for weapons and munitions into the Gaza strip, and the US has been facilitating co-operation between Israel and Egypt to tackle this for several years.

On arms smuggling across the Egyptian border to Hamas in Gaza, Israeli intelligence chiefs described as "supportive" Omar Suleiman, who was Egypt's intelligence minister, but said defence minister Mohammed Hussein Tantawi was "an obstacle" in a November 2009 cable.

Another cable seen by the Guardian reveals that the King of Bahrain, whose Arab state has recently been shaken by protests, has had friendly links with the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency.

The cables report a private talk between the then US ambassador, William Monroe, and King Hamad of Bahrain in the king's palace on 15 February 2005. Monroe reported back to Washington: "He [the king] revealed that Bahrain already has contacts with Israel at the intelligence/security level (ie with Mossad) and indicated that Bahrain will be willing to move forward in other areas."

The cables also shed light on Israel's assessment of Hezbollah's mounting capability to strike directly at Tel Aviv with an arsenal of more than 20,000 missiles.

Israeli intelligence chiefs briefed their US counterparts during a regular Joint Political Military Group (JPMG) session on 18 November 2009 about the scale of potential Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon.

Washington was told: "Hezbollah possesses over 20,000 rockets ... Hezbollah was preparing for a long conflict with Israel in which it hopes to launch a massive number of rockets at Israel per day. A Mossad official estimated that Hezbollah will try to launch 400-600 rockets and missiles at Israel per day – 100 of which will be aimed at Tel Aviv. He noted that Hezbollah is looking to sustain such launches for at least two months."

Other cables detail regular secret talks between the US and Yuval Diskin, head of Israel's internal security agency, Shin Beth, over the role of Hamas in Gaza. On 12 November 2009 the embassy reported the views of the general responsible for Gaza and southern Israel, Major General Yoav Galant, that Hamas needed to be "strong enough to enforce a ceasefire".

He told the Americans: "Israel's political leadership has not yet made the necessary policy choices among competing priorities: a short-term priority of wanting Hamas to be strong enough to enforce the de facto ceasefire and prevent the firing of rockets and mortars into Israel; a medium priority of preventing Hamas from consolidating its hold on Gaza; and a longer-term priority of avoiding a return of Israeli control of Gaza and full responsibility for the wellbeing of Gaza's civilian population."

Galant was to be made Israel's chief of defence staff earlier this year but the appointment was cancelled due to scandal.

HOME PAGE

Amid the Arab Spring, Obama’s dilemma over Saudi Arabia

By Martin Indyk,

Washington Post,

7 Thursday, April ,

There’s a crisis in U.S. policy in the Middle East — and it’s not about Libya. For weeks the Obama administration has been preoccupied with averting a humanitarian catastrophe in North Africa. But on the other side of the region, in the oil-rich Arabian Peninsula, a matter of vital, strategic importance awaits the urgent attention of policymakers.

Over there, the ailing 87-year-old king of Saudi Arabia probably isn’t getting much sleep. Abdullah, this Sunni monarch of monarchs, custodian of the holy mosques of Mecca and Medina, can see the flames of instability and turmoil licking at all his borders. In the south, Yemen is imploding, to the advantage of his al-Qaeda enemies. In the east, Bahrain’s Shiite majority has been in such a state of revolt that Abdullah has already sent armed forces to prevent Iran from establishing a “cat’s paw” on the Sunni Arab side of the Persian Gulf. In the north, Abdullah sees Iraq’s Shiite-dominated government as nothing more than a front for the hated Persians. In the west, a Palestinian majority is demanding that the Hashemite king of Jordan become a constitutional monarch. Meanwhile, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, that other Sunni pillar of regional stability, has already been overthrown.

Historically, in times of trouble, Saudi kings have depended on American presidents to guarantee their external security. But at this moment of crisis, Abdullah views President Obama as a threat to his internal security. He fears that in the event of a widespread revolt, Obama will demand that he leave office, just as he did to Mubarak, that other longtime friend of the United States. Consequently, Abdullah is reportedly making arrangements for Pakistani troops to enter his kingdom should the need to suppress popular demonstrations arise.

This presents the Obama administration with a particularly thorny dilemma. Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil producer and the only one with sufficient excess production capacity to moderate rises in the price of oil. Instability in Saudi Arabia could produce panic in the oil markets and an oil shock that could put an end to America’s economic recovery (and the president’s hopes for reelection). This would argue for granting an “exception” to Saudi Arabia from the Obama administration’s trumpeting of universal rights. Indeed, the soft criticism of Bahrain’s Saudi-dictated suppression of its people suggests that this has already become U.S. policy.

Yet helping the Saudi king effectively erect a wall against the political tsunami sweeping across the Arab world is not a long-term solution. If there’s one thing that we can now predict with some confidence, it’s that no Arab authoritarian regime can remain immune from the demands of its people for political freedom and accountable government. To be sure, $100 billion in subventions from the palace and the promise of 60,000 jobs can help postpone, for a time, the demands of unemployed Saudi youths. But political freedom, transmitted across borders via cable TV and the Internet, has proved to be a seductive idea. In the end, it will not be assuaged by economic bribes or police-state suppression.

And the Saudi system is fragile. Power is concentrated in the hands of the king and his brothers, who are old and ailing. The Saud family’s legitimacy depends in significant part on its pact with a fundamentalist Wahhabi clergy that is deeply opposed to basic political reforms, such as equal rights for women. The deep structural tensions generated by a 21st-century Westernized elite existing within a 15th-century Saudi social structure have been papered over for decades by oil wealth. If this strange social contract begins to fray, it might tear completely. And over in the eastern quarter, adjacent to Bahrain, where most of Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves are located, sits a restive Shiite minority who have been treated as second-class citizens for decades.

Even if the Obama administration were understandably inclined to leave well enough alone, it cannot afford to do so for other reasons. The Saudis are attempting to erect the wall beyond their borders not only by suppressing the revolt in Bahrain but also by insisting that Jordan’s king not pursue the reform agenda he has promised his people. In effect, Abdullah intends to carve out an exception for all the kings and sheiks — Sunni to a man — in Saudi Arabia’s neighborhood. It might work for a time. But should this dam break, it could generate a sectarian Sunni-Shiite, Arab-Iranian conflict on one side and an Arab-Israeli conflict on the other. It could spell the end of Pax Americana in the Middle East.

For all of these reasons, President Obama urgently needs to negotiate a new compact with King Abdullah. He has to find a way to convince him that defining a road map that leads to constitutional monarchies in his neighborhood, and eventually in Saudi Arabia, is the only effective way to secure his kingdom and the interests of his subjects. Abdullah has been willing to undertake important reforms in the past. But if the king is to be persuaded to embark on this road again, he will need to know that the president will provide a secure safety net of support, rather than undermine him. And he will need to know that the United States will not make a deal with his Iranian enemies at Saudi expense.

Such a compact would be difficult to negotiate in the best of times. It cannot even be broached in current circumstances unless the basic trust between the president and the king can be reestablished. With a budget crisis at home and turmoil in the Middle East, it’s understandable that Obama has had little time for the personal engagement with potentates that does not come naturally to him. But it’s not just Abdullah’s survival that is at stake. A revolt in Saudi Arabia could sink his presidency.

The writer is vice president and director of the Brookings Institution’s foreign policy program and convener of the U.S.-Islamic World Forum, which meets in Washington next week.

HOME PAGE

Egyptians Back Diplomat In Poll, Show Secular Bent

Jay Solomon,

Wall Street Journal,

7 Apr. 2011,

Egypt's Former Foreign Minister Amr Moussa—a vocal critic of some U.S. foreign policy—leads the field among likely presidential candidates, with the secular Wafd Party emerging as the most popular political group, according to a poll by a United Nations-affiliated think tank.

The poll also concluded that most Egyptians don't seek any radical changes in their government's foreign relations, including with Israel, or its path of economic liberalization.

The poll, conducted by the New York-based International Peace Institute, found Egypt's largest Islamist organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, ranks second in popularity among political parties.

The U.S. and its Middle East allies have tracked preparations for parliamentary elections, expected in September, due to fears that a strong Muslim Brotherhood showing could lead Cairo away from the pro-Western policies pursued by former President Hosni Mubarak over the past three decades.

Israeli officials have particularly voiced concerns that a new Egyptian government might prove less committed to the peace treaty and the fight against militancy than Mr. Mubarak was. Arab officials elsewhere in the region worry an Islamist-leaning regime in Cairo could fuel uprisings against their own secular governments.

The new poll indicates that there is less enthusiasm for an Islamist government in Egypt than many analysts may have thought. While 38% said they had a favorable opinion of the Muslim Brotherhood, nearly 50% said they thought positively of the secular Wafd Party.

More than 60% of those polled wanted Egypt to honor its peace treaty with Israel, while ensuring the creation of an independent Palestinian state.

"Maintaining and advancing peace with Israel has far wider appeal than a rupture in relations," reads the report on the poll.

Pollsters surveyed by telephone 615 randomly chosen people from across Egypt. Of those, 80% said they had favorable impression of Mr. Moussa, compared with 10% for the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Badie. The group has said it won't field a candidate for the presidential election, for which a date has yet to be set.

Mohamed ElBaradei, whose Nobel Prize as head of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog makes him perhaps best known in the West among likely candidates, garnered support from just 2% of those polled. Wael Ghonim, the Google executive who played a central role in fomenting the uprising that drove Mr. Mubarak from power, also had 2%.

"Amr Moussa appears as the front-runner for the presidential election," the report said. "But competition will increase once the presidential campaign commences."

Egyptians also gave high ratings to the country's military and an amalgam of liberal organizations that drove the revolution against Mr. Mubarak.

Of those polled, 82% wanted Cairo to continue to pursue economic liberalization and an opening to foreign trade, though there was also a desire for the state to play a more central job in preserving jobs.

Mr. Moussa, 74 years old, could prove a tricky interlocutor for the U.S. He supported Washington's drive to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait, and as secretary-general of the Arab League, he backed an initiative for member states to normalize relations with Israel, in return for Israel relinquishing lands seized during the 1967 war.

But much of his populist appeal is tied to his criticism of Israel and opposition to the most recent Iraq war. An Egyptian pop song in 2000, at the end of his tenure as foreign minister, was titled "I Hate Israel, I Love Amr Moussa." It was a hit.

Mr. Moussa irked the Obama administration last month when he publicly criticized a U.N.-backed military campaign against Libyan leader Col. Moammar Gadhafi, just days after the Arab League endorsed it. U.S. officials said they felt he was playing politics on a crucial national-security issue.

"Amr Moussa is hands down the front-runner," said David Schenker, an Egypt analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The poll found that if an election were held today, Mr. Moussa would garner 37% of the presidential vote; followed by 16% for Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces; and 12% for Ahmed Zewail, a Nobel-prize winning chemist.

Mr. ElBaradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, attracted significant international attention by returning to Cairo last year from Vienna to publicly call for Mr. Mubarak to stand down and open up Egypt's political system. The poll, however, indicated that many Egyptians didn't know him or were skeptical of candidates who returned from abroad.

➢ HOME PAGE

Guardian: 'US embassy cables: Israel - calm before the storm?'..

Guardian: 'US embassy cables: US discusses Gaza with Israeli security chief'..

Guardian: 'Latest WikiLeaks cables reveal Israel's fears and alliances'..

➢ HOME PAGE

-----------------------

1

................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download