Statistical Analysis Report

Early Millennials: The Sophomore Class of 2002 a Decade Later

Statistical Analysis Report

NCES 2017-437

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

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Early Millennials: The Sophomore Class of 2002 a Decade Later

Statistical Analysis Report

JUNE 2017

Xianglei Chen Erich Lauff Caren A. Arbeit Robin Henke Paul Skomsvold Justine Hufford RTI International Elise Christopher Project Officer National Center for Education Statistics

NCES 2017-437

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

U.S. Department of Education Betsy DeVos Secretary

Institute of Education Sciences Thomas W. Brock Commissioner for Education Research Deputy Director for Policy and Research Delegated the Duties of the Director

National Center for Education Statistics Peggy G. Carr Acting Commissioner

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reporting data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze, and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish reports and specialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in improving their statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries.

NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, and accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high-quality data to the U.S. Department of Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public. Unless specifically noted, all information contained herein is in the public domain.

We strive to make our products available in a variety of formats and in language that is appropriate to a variety of audiences. You, as our customer, are the best judge of our success in communicating information effectively. If you have any comments or suggestions about this or any other NCES product or report, we would like to hear from you. Please direct your comments to

NCES, IES, U.S. Department of Education Potomac Center Plaza 550 12th Street, SW Washington, DC 20202

June 2017

The NCES Home Page address is . The NCES Publications and Products address is .

This publication is only available online. To download, view, and print the report as a PDF file, go to the NCES Publications and Products address shown above.

This report was prepared for the National Center for Education Statistics under Contract No. ED-07-CO-0104 with RTI International. Mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Suggested Citation Chen X., Lauff, E., Arbeit, C.A., Henke, R., Skomsvold, P., and Hufford, J. (2017). Early Millennials: The Sophomore Class of 2002 a Decade Later (NCES 2017-437). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. Retrieved [date] from .

Content Contact National Center for Education Statistics els2002@ (800) 677-6987

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Executive Summary

This Statistical Analysis Report tracks a cohort of 2002 high school sophomores1 over 10 years, examining the extent to which cohort members had reached such life course milestones as finishing school, starting a job, leaving home, getting married, and having children. The analyses in this report are based on data from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002), a multifaceted survey sponsored by the U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) and designed to study the 2002 sophomore cohort's transition from adolescence to adulthood. Launched in spring 2002, ELS:2002 started with a nationally representative sample of more than 15,000 high school sophomores from public and private high schools across the United States. Over the next 10 years, these sample members were resurveyed three times--in 2004, 2006, and 2012. The final (2012) data collection occurred at a key stage of life for the 2002 sophomore cohort--most members were 26 years old and had been out of high school for 8 years, and many also had completed postsecondary education and formally entered the labor market (Lauff and Ingels 2014).

Born in the mid-1980s, members of the 2002 sophomore cohort grew up in a tumultuous period of recent history. The "dot-com bubble" of 1997?2000 burst just as most were entering high school. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 occurred when these students had just started their sophomore year in high school. When the Great Recession hit in 2007?08, most cohort members were turning 22 years old, and many were in college or completing postsecondary certificates or degrees. During the next few years, the U.S. economy saw rising unemployment rates, declining earnings, and growing numbers of people living in poverty (DeNavas-Walt, Proctor, and Smith 2013). Although the long-term consequences of these economic trends are not yet fully assessed, they may be especially hard for those (including many members of the 2002 sophomore cohort) who were finishing college and entering the job market during and immediately after the recession (Bell and Blanchflower 2011; Hoynes, Miller, and Schaller 2012).

In addition to their place in the larger historical context, 2002 high school sophomores came of age during a period of change in postsecondary education. The past decades witnessed an upward trend in postsecondary enrollment and attainment

1 This report refers to these cohort members as 10th-graders, 2002 sophomores, or simply sophomores interchangeably.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(Snyder, de Brey, and Dillow 2016), and the cost of attending college has skyrocketed (Dynarski and Scott-Clayton 2013). Today, large proportions of young people have to borrow money to pay for their postsecondary education, and many leave college with high levels of debt (Avery and Turner 2012; Woo 2013). There is widespread concern that high levels of education debt, especially among those who left college during and after the recent recession, may undermine students' ability to pursue further education, achieve financial independence, and start families (Barrow, Brock, and Rouse 2013; Rothstein and Rouse 2011; Zhang 2013).

Nevertheless, members of this cohort had high expectations for their future education. As sophomores, 9 in 10 students expressed a desire to attend postsecondary education after high school, and close to three-quarters expected to complete a 4-year-college or higher degree (Ingels et al. 2005). Large proportions of cohort members also placed great significance on their future work and family life: 84 percent rated being able to find a steady job as very important, and 80 percent thought that marrying and having a happy family life were very important.

This study is designed to examine the extent to which 2002 high school sophomores achieved various milestones of early adulthood as of 2012, including high school completion, entrance into postsecondary education, progress toward or completion of a postsecondary credential, family formation, and employment and earnings. Specifically, the study addresses the following questions:

? Where did 2002 high school sophomores stand a decade later in education, the labor market, and family formation?

? Did 2002 sophomores from different demographic backgrounds and with different academic characteristics in high school achieve the same or different outcomes in these areas?

? Did various demographic and high school academic characteristics have unique associations with 2002 sophomores' later outcomes in education and the labor market when other factors were taken into account?

? How did 2002 sophomores who achieved various levels of education--from not completing high school through post-baccalaureate attainment--fare in the labor market in 2012?

This study addresses these questions by analyzing longitudinal data from ELS:2002. Key findings from this study are summarized below.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

v

Status of 2002 High School Sophomores a Decade Later

By 2012, the year when most 2002 high school sophomores turned 26 years old, the majority of cohort members had completed high school (96 percent) by earning a regular diploma, passing a General Educational Development (GED) certificate test, or obtaining other high school equivalency such as a certificate of attendance. Many members had also made the transition to postsecondary education (84 percent) (figure A). As of 2012, about one-half of cohort members had earned a postsecondary certificate or degree. One-third of all cohort members had earned a bachelor's or higher degree by 2012.

Figure A. Percentage of spring 2002 high school sophomores who achieved selected outcomes: 2012

Education Completed high school

Enrolled in postsecondary education

Attained a postsecondary credential

Attained a bachelor's or higher degree

52 33

96 84

Employment status?

Employed

82

Unemployed

11

Out of the labor force

7

Marriage, parenthood, living arrangements

Married

28

Divorced/separated/widowed 3

Had one or more children

33

Lived with parents

23

0

20

40

60

Percent

80

100

1 Persons are classified as employed if they currently have a job; unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work; or out of the labor force if they are neither working nor looking for work.

NOTE: Estimates and standard errors are available in tables C-2a, C-2b, C-4a, C-4b, C-7a, C-7b, C-11a, C-11b, C-12a, C-12b, C-13a, C-13b, C-14a, C-14b.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002/12).

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The majority of 2002 sophomores (93 percent) were in the workforce in 2012-- 82 percent were employed and 11 percent were unemployed but looking for jobs-- and 7 percent were out of the labor force.2

Fewer cohort members had taken on such adult roles as spouse and parent, however. By 2012, some 31 percent had married--28 percent were currently married and 3 percent had subsequently divorced, separated, or become widowed. Overall, onethird of cohort members had become parents as of 2012. Some 23 percent were living with their parents in 2012.

Subgroup Differences in Educational Attainment, Employment, and Earnings a Decade Later

The achievement of these milestones varied among subgroups of the cohort. In general, cohort members from advantaged backgrounds (e.g., students from highsocioeconomic status [SES] families;3 those who demonstrated strong academic preparation via their coursetaking and performance in high school) tended to have higher educational attainment, employment rates, and earnings. To better understand subgroup differences, this study selects three 2012 outcomes--highest educational attainment, employment status, and hourly wages for 2012 jobs--and uses multivariate techniques to examine the unique association between various factors and each of these outcomes after controlling for other factors. Key findings from the multivariate analyses are summarized below.

Sex

The multivariate results show that female students had a higher probability of earning a master's or other advanced degree and a lower probability of attending college without earning any postsecondary credential as of 2012 than did their male counterparts, even after controlling for a range of factors including race/ethnicity, family SES, the type of family arrangement (single- vs. two-parent) in which students lived in 10th grade, the language students first learned to speak, students' educational expectations, and their academic experiences in high school (table A).

2 ELS:2002 used the federal definitions of employed, unemployed, and out of the labor force (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2014). Specifically, persons are classified as employed if they currently have a job; unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work; or out of the labor force if they are neither working nor looking for work. 3 The family SES measure used in this report combines information about parents' education, occupation, and income. See appendix A for more information about this variable.

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