Start Excel and change the name of the worksheet by double ...
1. Enter the time series in an Excel worksheet:
Start Excel and change the name of the worksheet by double clicking the “Sheet1” tab and type “Moving Average” in its place. Next, we will enter the column headings for problem 7 in row 1. To do so, enter “Week” in A1, enter “Demand” in B1, and “Forecast” in C1. Afterwards, we will enter the data given on page 241 of your text. Enter “1” in A2, “2” in A3, “3” in A4, “4” in A5, “5” in A6, and “6” in A7. Enter “20” in B2, “31” in B3, “36” in B4, “38” in B5, “42” in B6, and “40” in B7. Then we will make 2 copies of the worksheet and labeled them “Smoothing” and “Regression” respectively. To do so, click on the Edit menu and select “Move and Copy Sheet”. Make sure the “Create a copy” checkbox is checked before clicking the OK button from the “Move and Copy” window. Change the name of the worksheet to “Smoothing”. Copy the worksheet again and name it “Regression”.
2. Have the Data Analysis tools ready:
Make sure you have the Data Analysis tool installed on your Excel. Check this out by click on the Tools menu and see if “Data Analysis” is available. If not, you will have to add it in by selecting “Add-ins” from the Tools menu. You then select “Data Analysis TooPak” from the “Add-ins” window.
3. Generate the moving average forecasts:
Go to the worksheet labelled “Moving Average” by clicking on its tab. Select “Data Analysis” from the Tools menu. Select “Moving Average” from the “Data Analysis” window. The “Moving Average” window will pop up. Enter “B2:B7” for “Input Range”, “3” for “Interval”, and “C3” for “Output Range”. Click OK.
4. Generate the exponential smoothing forecasts:
Go to the worksheet labelled “Smoothing” by clicking on its tab. Select “Data Analysis” from the Tools menu. Select “Exponential Smoothing” from the “Data Analysis” window. The “Exponential Smoothing” window will pop up. Enter “B2:B7” for “Input Range”, “0.8” for “Damping factor”, and “C2” for “Output Range”. Click OK.
5. Generate the regression forecasts:
Go to the worksheet labelled “Regression” by clicking on its tab. Select “Data Analysis” from the Tools menu. Select “Regression” from the “Data Analysis” window. The “Regression” window will pop up. Enter “B1:B7” for “Input Y Range”, “A1:A7” for “Input X Range”, check the “Label” box, and “G1” for “Output Range”. Click OK. Finally, we will need to enter a formula in the Forecast column to compute the regression forecasts. Enter “=$H$17+$H$18*A2” in C2. Copy the formula from C2 to C3:C7.
6. Calculate MAD and MSE
Go to the worksheet labelled “Moving Average” by clicking on its tab. Enter “Absolute Deviation” in cell D1, “Squared Error” in cell E1. Enter “=abs(B5-C5)” in cell D5. Copy the formula from D5 to D6:D7. Enter “=(B5-C5)^2” in cell E5. Copy the formula from E5 to E6:E7. Now we are ready to compute MAD and MSE. Enter “MAD” in cell A10. Enter “=average(D5:D7)” in cell B10. Enter “MSE” in cell A11. Enter “=average(E5:E7)” in cell B11.
We can copy the formulas we entered in the “Moving Average” worksheet to the other 2 worksheets. To do so, copy cells D1:E7 from the “Moving Average” worksheet and paste them to cell D1 of the “Smoothing” and “Regression” worksheets. Copy cells A10:B11 from the “Moving Average” worksheet and paste them to cell A10 of the “Smoothing” and “Regression” worksheets.
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