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USA Today

Poll: Afghans express confidence in country's direction, security

Despite a raging pro Taliban insurgency the people of Afghanistan say they are optimistic about the future, satisfied with their young democracy and rank security low on their list of every day concerns, according to a survey out today.

In what it is billing as the widest opinion poll conducted in Afghanistan, the non-profit, San Francisco-based Asia Foundation surveyed 6,226 Afghans 18 and older in person in 32 of the country's 34 provinces over the summer.

Polling couldn't be conducted safely or reliably in two areas: southern Afghanistan's strife-torn Zabul and Uruzgan provinces, which together account for 2.3% of the country's population. The survey's margin of error was plus or minus 2.5%.

The poll, financed by the U.S. Agency for International Development, suggests that Afghans are surprisingly confident about the direction of there country even as NATO forces battle a pro-Taliban insurgency in southern and eastern provinces and the violence begins to threaten other places that previously had been considered safe.

While violence has increased, Afghanistan has made some progress in the nearly 5 years since U.S.-led forces overthrew the fundamentalist Islamic Taliban regime.

Afghans finally got a chance to vote — in presidential elections in 2004 and parliamentary elections in 2005. Roads have been paved and schools reopened after three decades of anarchy.

Outside the south, major Afghan cities such as Mazar-e-Sharif in the north, Herat in the west and the capital, Kabul, have been largely free of political violence.

Frederick Starr, Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, said he was not surprised by the survey. "These findings ... in no way contradict the larger conclusion that this is a country still desperately poor and desperately in need of help," Starr said. "What they affirm is that help produces results, which in turn generates appreciation."

The poll found that:

•Afghans were more than twice as likely (44% to 21%) to think their country was headed in the right direction, rather than the wrong direction; 29% had mixed feelings. Still, the optimists were down from 64% in a smaller Asia Foundation survey conducted in 2004.

By contrast, Iraqis have a bleaker outlook. A September 1-4 World Public Opinion Poll of more than 1,000 Iraqis showed that 47% thought their country was going in the right direction, while 52% thought it was going the wrong way.

•77% said they were satisfied with the way democracy is working in Afghanistan.

•Only 6% ranked security as the biggest problem in their area, behind unemployment (18%), electricity shortages (12%), poverty (10%), a weak economy (10%) and scarce water supplies (9%). Sixty percent said they rarely or never worried about their own safety. However, 22% said security was the biggest problem facing the nation.

•54% said they were more prosperous now than they were under the Taliban, which governed Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001; 26% felt less prosperous.

•42% said corruption was a major problem in their daily lives, and 77% called it a major national problem; 51% of those who dealt with public health care officials reported paying bribes for health service.

•Afghans had contradictory attitudes toward political tolerance: 85% said the government should allow peaceful opposition, but 64% said they would not allow political parties they personally opposed to meet in their areas.

•Nearly one-tenth of men and one-eighth of women felt that women should occupy most political positions in a country where women traditionally have been barred from schools and jobs.

•87% said they trusted the Afghan National Army, and 86% said they trusted the Afghan National Police. The police, in particular, have been widely criticized for being corrupt, brutal and beholden to local warlords. A report released this month by the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based non-profit group devoted to conflict prevention, called the Afghan police "little more than private militias ... regarded in nearly every district more as a source of insecurity than protection."

"I have never met one person, including the minister of the Interior, who trusted the Afghan National Police," Barnett Rubin, who studies Afghanistan at New York University's Center on International Cooperation, said in an e-mail. "I think this is not a very reliable survey."

Starr counters: "For a country that didn't have a national army and had only local militias, the fact that one exists — no matter its absolute level — is a breakthrough."

George Varughese, who directed the poll for the Asia Foundation, which supports programs in Asia that help improve governance and law, economic reform and development, agrees that some of the results "appear to challenge the current wisdom on issues in Afghanistan," but says, "We feel it is a solid, important piece of work, completed during a difficult time."

New York Times

Afghans Losing Faith in Nation’s Path, Poll Shows

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Afghans have lost a considerable amount of confidence in the direction of their country over the past two years, according to an extensive nationwide survey released Wednesday.

While the national mood remains positive on the whole, the number of people with negative or mixed views on the trajectory of the country has grown significantly since a similar survey in 2004, according to the Asia Foundation, which conducted both surveys.

“The number of Afghans who feel optimistic is lower than on the eve of the 2004 presidential elections,” the survey found.

It was the largest opinion survey conducted in Afghanistan. In it, 44 percent of Afghans interviewed said the country was headed in the right direction, compared with 64 percent in 2004 on the eve of the first democratic presidential elections in Afghanistan. Twenty-one percent said the country was headed in the wrong direction — compared with 11 percent in 2004 — and 29 percent had mixed feelings. Four percent were unsure. Security was the main reason for the increased concern, the survey said.

Financed by the United States Agency for International Development, the survey was conducted by the Asia Foundation, a nonprofit organization based in San Francisco, and by local partners, who interviewed more than 6,000 people from June through August this year in rural and urban areas of all but two of Afghanistan’s provinces. The main goal of the survey was to determine the attitudes of Afghans toward the political process, public policy and development progress.

The national mood was almost identical across the different ethnic groups, but varied according to region.

Security was the main source for optimism among those who said the country was headed in the right direction. But among those who expressed pessimism, more than half said the biggest problem was a lack of security, the Taliban threat and warlords. Indeed, two southern provinces were excluded from the survey due to extreme security problems.

Respondents listed the economy and unemployment as other big issues. Fifty-four percent said they felt more prosperous than they had under the Taliban, but 26 percent said they felt less well off. On a local level, unemployment was cited as the biggest problem, while security and a lack of infrastructure and basic services like electricity and water featured less prominently.

Corruption, which has become one of the main criticisms of the government, was less of a concern for respondents than unemployment and lack of services, with only 8 percent naming it as the biggest problem locally. But when asked specifically if corruption was a problem nationally, 77 percent of respondents said it was, and 60 percent said it had increased.

The survey showed strong support for democratic elections, and strong approval of new national institutions, including the Afghan National Army, of which 87 percent approved, and the Afghan National Police, of which 86 percent approved. A similar amount expressed trust in the electronic media, and 57 percent in nongovernmental organizations, whose performance has often been criticized. The justice system, local militias and political parties were not trusted, the survey said.

Eighty-six percent supported equal rights for women. Freedom of speech also received wide support.

Deep respect for religion also was apparent. Sixty-one percent said religious leaders should be consulted on issues and problems. Sixty percent of those surveyed said an Islamic nation could attain democracy without becoming Westernized, while 35 percent said democracy challenged Islamic values.

See chart below:

The Reach of War

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Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company

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