Evaluating Grocery Store Siting
HeidiGueninandNathanMcNeil USP543?FinalPaper 12/10/09
EvaluatingGroceryStoreSiting:
ACaseStudyatSE122ndandSEFoster
Introduction
Grocerystorelocationisachallengingproblembothfromthebusinessperspective (wherecouldaprofitablebusinesslocate?)andtheequityperspective(whereis foodaccesslimitedorinequitablydistributed?).Thisprojectexaminesindustry assumptionsaboutgrocerystorelocationcombinedwithdemographicandother geoanalyticprocesses.TheBureauofPlanningandSustainability(BPS)is conductingastudyoftheSE122ndAvenuecorridorfromDivisionStreetsouthto FosterRoad.Thesouthernportionofstudyareahaslimitedgroceryaccess,as determinedbyseveralrecentstudiesoffoodaccessinPortland,includingtheMURP Foodability2009PlanningWorkshopstudycompletedlastyear.1(SeeImage1) Image1:Foodability
1Armstrong,Kim,ElizabethChapin,AprilChastain,JuliaPerson,StephanieVanRheen,andSteveWhite. "Foodability:VisioningforHealthfulFoodAccessinPortland."Thesis.PortlandStateUniversity,2009.Print.
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HeidiGueninandNathanMcNeil USP543?FinalPaper 12/10/09
Thereareseveralcontiguousvacantcommerciallotsinthesouthernportionofthe munitymembershavesuggestedthatthesevacantparcels(hereafter referredtoastheFostersite)shouldbeexploredasapotentialgrocerystore location.(SeeImage2)ThisanalysisexaminesthesuitabilityoftheFostersiteasa grocerystorelocationbasedonacombinationoftraditionallocationfactorsand morerecentconsumerdemographicresearch. Image2:SE122ndAvenueLandUsebyTaxlot
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HeidiGueninandNathanMcNeil USP543?FinalPaper 12/10/09
BackgroundandExistingConditions
Standardgrocerystorelocationdecisionstakeintoaccountthesizeofthelotofthe potentialbuildingandparkingsite,marketleakage,variationsinserviceareaby storetype,andpopulationneededtosupportastore.Morerecentresearchalso exploresdemographictrendsinconsumerstorechoice. LotSize&MarketLeakage TheFostersitehasanareaofroughly63,605squarefeet.Thereareseveralgrocery storesinPortlandonlotsofasimilarorsmallersize,includingdozensofspecialty storesandthreeNewSeasonsMarkets.2AnESRIBusinessAnalystreportforthe Fostersiteindicatesthatthereismarketleakageof$8,159,848forgrocerystores withinafiveminutedriveandof$871,087forspecialtystoreswithinathreeminute drive.3Marketleakageiscalculatedasretailpotentialminusretailsupplyandis oftenusedineconomicdevelopmentresearchasoneindicatorofwhattypesofnew developmentanareacansupport. StoreTypes&ServiceCatchmentAreas Therearedozensofdifferentschemesusedtocategorizegrocerystoresaccording tostock,size,andownership.Forourpurposes,wedevelopedasimplifiedversion oftheschemefroma2004articlefromtheJournalofPlanningEducationand Research,asdetailedlater.4Theauthorsofthearticlenotedthat"fewpeoplewould substitutewalkingfordrivingtothegrocerystore,evenifaccesswereexcellent."5 Thisfinding,coupledwithourlimitedtimeframeandthetraditionallocation decisionparametersledustofocusonautomobilesforthecreationoftheanalysis network. Asupermarketgenerallyhasaconsumercatchmentareaofthreemilesorafive minutedrive-time.Specialtystorestypicallyhaveasmallercatchmentareaofone mileorathreeminutedrive-time.Largediscountstoresoftenoperateataregional level,soatenminutedrive-timeisaconservativeestimateoftheircatchmentarea.6 DemographicTrends Dunkleyalsoreviewedexistingliteratureaboutconsumerdemographicsand preferences,withfindingsrelevanttothisanalysis.Asincomeandeducation
2BureauofPlanningandSustainability,AlmaL.SelectGroceryStoreSizeTypesandMarketforPortland.Rep. Portland:BPS,2007.Print. 3ESRIBusinessAnalystOnline.RetailMarketplaceProfile.Rep.2009.Print. 4Dunkley,Bill,AmyHelling,andDavidSawicki."AccessibilityversusScale:ExaminingtheTradeoffsinGrocery Stores."JournalofPlanningEducationandResearch23.4(2004):387-401.CSAWebIllumina.Web.20Nov.2009. . 5393
6Flores,Alma.Personalinterview.18Nov.2009.
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HeidiGueninandNathanMcNeil USP543?FinalPaper 12/10/09
decrease,orashouseholdsizeincreases,likelihoodofshoppingindiscountstores increases.Size-constrainedgrocerystoresaremoresuccessfulinareasofhigh incomeorinareaswherethereisalargepopulationwithoutpersonalvehicles.A 2006articlefromtheInternationalJournalofRetail&DistributionManagement concludedthatsupermarketpatronage(especiallyof"traditionalneighborhood markets")increaseswithdecreasinghouseholdsize.7
MethodologyOverview
InordertoexaminethesuitabilityoftheFostersite,thisanalysisdrawsonPortland grocerystoredatafromBPS,PortlandstreetsdatafromMetro'sRegionalLand InformationSystem,anddemographicinformationfromthe2000Census. GroceryStoreData ThefirststepinthisanalysiswastogeocodeandmapalistofPortlandgrocery storestoexaminemarketcoveragebystoretypeandtoassessthestoreservice areasfordemographicorgeographictrends.Apreliminarylistwasreceivedfrom BPS,updatedwithrecentlyopenedstores,geocoded,andcategorizedtouseinthe analysis. A.Stepstoanalyzethegrocerystoredatawereasfollows:(SeeImage3)
1. ObtainedlistofGroceryStoresfromBPS. 2. Addedknownmissingstores(GroceryOutlet,NewSeasons,Pastaworks). 3. GeocodedtoPortlandStreetswitha98%matchrateandmatchedthe
remainingstoresmanually. 4. Removedlocationsoperatingonlyaswholesalers. 5. Assignedacategorytoeachlocationaccordingtosimplifiedscheme
informedbytheliteraturereview: ? Supermarket-full-servicechainorindependentgrocerystore(ex.: Albertsons) ? Gourmet-limitedselection;littletonononfooditems(ex.Zupan's Market) ? Specialty-ethnicstores,greengrocers,bakeries,seafoodmarkets, butchers,etc.(ex.:AnDongMarket) ? Discount-supercenters,warehouse/wholesalesellers(ex.:Winco) ? Massmerchant-departmentalizedstorethatsellsfoodinadditionto otherhouseholdgoods(ex.:FredMeyer)
7Carpenter,Jason,andMargueriteMoore."Consumerdemographics,storeattributes,andretailformatchoicein
theU.S.grocerymarket."InternationalJournalofRetail&DistributionManagement34.6(2006):434-52.
Emerald.Web.20Nov.2009..
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Image3:GroceryStoresinPortland
HeidiGueninandNathanMcNeil USP543?FinalPaper 12/10/09
StreetNetwork NextastreetnetworkwascreatedusingtheMetroRLISstreetsfile.Lengthswere convertedtomilesanddrive-timeswereassignedbasedonspeedlimitassumptions detailedbelow. B.StepstocreateaPortlandstreetnetworkwereasfollows:
1. Addedamilesfieldtotheattributetableforthestreetshapefile.Themiles werecalculatedaslength/5280.
2. Addedaspeedfieldtotheattributetableforthestreetshapefile.Valuesfor thespeedfieldwerepopulatedasbelow,accordingtostreettypeandin milesperhour: ? Freeways=55 ? Highways=45 ? Primaryarterials=35 ? Secondaryarterials=30 ? Otherarterials=30 ? Allothers=25
3. Addedtwofields,"TF_Minutes"and"FT_Minutes"andcalculatedbothof theirvaluestobemiles*60/speed.
4. Theseadditionsallowedforthecreationofanetworkdatasetthatcould evaluatearoutebasedontimeimpedance.
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