Florida Population Growth: Past, Present and Future

[Pages:40]Florida Population Growth: Past, Present and Future

Stanley K. Smith Bureau of Economic and Business Research

221 Matherly Hall University of Florida Gainesville, Florida 32611-7145 (352) 392-0171, Ext. 210

sksmith@ufl.edu

June, 2005

There are many "Floridas." There are the farms and small towns of north Florida, with families that have lived there for generations; the booming commercial and industrial areas of central Florida, creating new jobs and attracting young workers and their families from all over the United States; the retirement villages of southwest Florida, bringing thousands of snowbirds and retirees from northern states each year; and the enclaves of foreign-born residents in southeast Florida, bringing cultural diversity and a melting-pot ambiance to the region. Florida is not a single entity but rather a composite of many diverse parts, each with its own unique identity.

These parts are tied together by a common thread: rapid population growth. Florida has been one of the most rapidly growing states in the nation for many years and is expected to continue growing rapidly in the future. Although some parts of the state have grown more rapidly than others, no part has completely escaped the effects of rapid population growth. Population growth and demographic change have had an impact on virtually every aspect of life in Florida, and no social, political, environmental, or economic issue can be understood without a firm grasp of the state's population dynamics. Historical Trends

In 1900 Florida was one of the smallest states east of the Mississippi River, with a population of barely half a million (Table 1). By 2000 its population had grown to almost 16 million, making it the fourth largest state in the nation. Growth rates during the twentieth century ranged between 20 and 80 percent per decade, far above the 10-20 percent growth rates experienced by the United States as a whole. Compared to other states, Florida's growth rates ranked among the top seven in every decade since 1920; in most decades, they ranked in the top four. In absolute numbers, Florida's growth during the 1990s trailed only California and Texas. Florida's rapid growth has continued since 2000, with an increase of more than 1.5 million persons in only four years.

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One direct result of rapid population growth has been the steady increase in Florida's representation in the U.S. House of Representatives, which is determined by the number of residents counted in each decennial census. Florida had only 3 of 391 seats in 1900, but had 15 of 435 by 1970. Further population growth added four more seats during both the 1970s and 1980s and two more during the 1990s, for a current total of 25. The Florida delegation is now larger than those of all other states except California, New York, and Texas. Greater political clout at the national level is one clear result of Florida's rapid population growth.

The geographic distribution of Florida's population changed dramatically during the twentieth century. Figure 1 shows a division of Florida into four regions: the North includes everything above Levy, Marion, and Volusia counties; the Southeast includes the eastern seaboard counties between Martin and Monroe; the Southwest includes the Gulf Coast and interior counties from Manatee, Hardee, and Highlands on the north to Collier on the south; and the Central region includes everything in between.

In 1900, almost two-thirds of Florida's residents lived in the northern region of the state, slightly more than one-fourth lived in the central region, and fewer than one in twelve lived in the two southern regions combined (Table 2). Duval was the largest county, with a population of 39,733. Miami-Dade County (which in 1900 included Broward, Palm Beach, and Martin counties) had fewer than 5,000 residents.

Since 1900 a tremendous southward shift has occurred. Fueled by agricultural and industrial growth, tourism, retiree migration, and an expanding transportation system, the populations of central and south Florida mushroomed while the population of north Florida lagged behind (Table 3). Between 1900 and 1980, growth rates averaged 90 percent per decade in the Southeast, 66 percent in the Southwest, 52 percent in the Central region, and only 24 percent in the North. These widely differing growth rates led to dramatic changes in the geographic distribution

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of Florida's population. By 1980, 38 percent of the state's population lived in the Central region, 34 percent in the Southeast, 8 percent in the Southwest, and only 20 percent in the North.

Recent trends, however, indicate that the southward shift in Florida's population may have come to an end. During the 1970s the central region grew more rapidly than the southeast region for the first time in this century. During the 1980s the central region grew much more rapidly than the southeast region and the northern region grew almost as fast. During the 1990s all three regions grew at about the same rate. In percentage terms, the Southwest has been the fastest growing region during every decade since 1960, but its growth in absolute numbers has been the smallest of any region. By 2000, 39 percent of the state's population lived in the Central region, 33 percent in the Southeast, 10 percent in the Southwest, and 18 percent in the North. Although its absolute numbers will continue to grow, the Southeast region's share of state population is likely to decline slightly during the coming decades.

Florida's population center is the point where the state would exactly balance if each resident had an equal weight. Between 1830 and 1980 the state's population center shifted steadily toward the south and east (Figure 2). Since 1980, however, it has moved slightly to the east but no further south. In terms of the geographic distribution of its population, Florida has passed an important turning point in its history. Components of Growth

What accounts for Florida's rapid population growth? There are only three components of growth: births, deaths and migration. A population grows through births and in-migration and declines through deaths and out-migration. The overall expansion or contraction of a state's population thus depends on its combination of births, deaths, in-migrants and out-migrants.

Births. Figure 3 shows the annual number of births and deaths in Florida since 1950. The Baby Boom had a major impact on Florida's population, almost doubling the annual number of

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births between 1950 and 1960. This increase was caused both by rapid population growth and by a substantial increase in the average number of births per woman. During the 1960s and early 1970s the average number of births per woman declined dramatically, but overall population growth kept the total number of births at 100,000-120,000 per year.

The annual number of births began rising again in the late 1970s, reaching almost 200,000 by 1990. This increase was caused by continued population growth, small increases in the average number of births per woman, and the aging of the Baby Boom generation, which greatly increased the number of women in their prime childbearing years. (This increase is sometimes called the "echo of the Baby Boom"). The annual number of births declined a bit in the early 1990s, but began rising again in the late 1990s. Births are likely to continue rising gradually during the coming years, reflecting continuing population growth. It is very unlikely, however, that Florida or the United States will ever again have a Baby Boom similar to the one experienced from 19461964.

Deaths. Deaths in Florida have followed a totally different pattern than births. Instead of fluctuating up and down, annual deaths have increased steadily from less than 27,000 in 1950 to almost 170,000 in 2003. There are two major reasons for this increase. One is the much larger population, which has grown more than six-fold since 1950. The other is population aging. Florida's older population has grown tremendously, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of the total population. Since mortality rates are much higher for older people than younger people, an aging population adds substantially to the number of deaths. Deaths in Florida are projected to continue rising steadily in future years.

Natural Increase. The excess of births over deaths is called "natural increase." This is the growth that comes from within a population itself, independent of in- and out-migration. The natural increase of Florida's population rose steadily during the Baby Boom, reaching almost

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70,000 by 1960. It then began falling rapidly, to less than 20,000 per year in the mid-1970s. The increase in births since then caused natural increase to rise again, reaching 64,000 in 1990. It fell again in the early 1990s and has fluctuated around 36,000-40,000 since that time. Our projections imply that it will continue to decline slowly during the coming decades, reaching zero in 20-25 years. After that time, deaths will outnumber births in Florida. Since 2000, deaths have outnumbered births in 25 counties in Florida.

Migration. If natural increase is very small (or negative), it follows that population growth must depend primarily (or totally) on migration. Net migration is the difference between the number of people moving into an area and the number moving out. The net migration stream into Florida in recent decades has been huge, averaging more than 160,000 per year during the 1950s, 130,000 per year during the 1960s and 260,000-280,000 per year during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. In each of those five decades, Florida grew more by net migration than any other state except California.

Figure 4 shows natural increase and net migration in Florida between 1950 and 2000. During the 1950s and 1960s net migration accounted for about three-quarters of Florida's population growth. During the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s it accounted for 85-90 percent. This proportion was higher in Florida than in any other state, not only because of the large migration flows into the state but also because of the low rate of natural increase. If current projections prove to be accurate, net migration will account for all of Florida's population growth within 20-25 years.

It is clear that migration has been--and will continue to be--the most important cause of Florida's population growth. Most of these migrants come from other states in the United States. More than 1.1 million people moved to Florida from other states between 1955 and 1960, 1.2 million between 1965 and 1970, 1.8 million between 1975 and 1980, 2.1 million between 1985 and 1990, and 1.9 million between 1995 and 2000 (Table 4). The number of foreign immigrants

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increased steadily over this period--from 85,000 for 1955-1960 to 653,000 for 1995-2000. Foreign immigrants now account for 26 percent of all persons moving to Florida; in the 1950s, they accounted for only 7 percent.

Table 4 also shows that large numbers of people have moved out of Florida: 381,000 between 1955 and 1960; 641,000 between 1965 and 1970; 978,000 between 1975 and 1980; 1,059,000 between 1985 and 1990; and 1,254,000 between 1995 and 2000. (These numbers refer only to interstate migrants; data on persons leaving the United States are not available). This is not unusual. All states have lots of people moving in and out, responding to shifting employment and educational opportunities, job transfers, changes in personal preferences, changes in family status (e.g., marriage or divorce), and so forth. Migration out of rapidly growing states is often particularly high because those states have large numbers of especially migration-prone persons. It is not surprising, then, that more people left Florida between 1995 and 2000 than all but two other states (California and New York).

What are the major origins and destinations of Florida's migrants? Table 5 shows the leading states of origin for the last four decades. New York was the leading state by a wide margin in each decade. Ohio, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Michigan were other large northern states to rank consistently among the top ten. Georgia was the only southern state to rank in the top ten in all four decades, and California was the only western state.

The destinations of Florida's out-migrants differ considerably from the origins of its inmigrants (Table 6). Georgia was the leading destination in all four time periods; California, Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama, and Tennessee also ranked consistently in the top ten. New York and Ohio were the only northern states to rank in the top ten in all four time periods. As is true for most states, a large proportion of the people leaving Florida are heading for other Sunbelt states.

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Table 7 shows the age distribution of Florida's migrants for the last four decades. Contrary to popular belief, most persons moving to Florida are young rather than elderly. At least 44 percent of the in-migrants were younger than age 35 in all time periods; only 15-16 percent was age 65 and older. However, young persons also account for most of Florida's out-migrants. In each time period, more than half of the persons leaving the state were younger than age 35. The high proportion of migrants made up by young persons is a common finding in migration studies. Migration rates are high for young adults because they are not as closely bound to an area by job or family ties as older adults and they face longer life spans over which to reap the economic benefits of moving.

Although most Florida migrants are not elderly, Florida does receive far more elderly migrants than any other state. More than 286,000 persons age 65 and older moved to Florida between 1995 and 2000. This was three times the number of older persons moving to any other state (Arizona was second, with 95,000). Florida has long been the leading destination of elderly migrants in the United States and is likely to remain so in the coming decades.

Compared to other age groups, relatively few older people move out of Florida. Consequently, Florida's net migration stream has been skewed toward the older ages. For example, between 1995 and 2000 there were 84 out-migrants for every 100 in-migrants aged 2534; for ages 55-64, there were only 34 out-migrants for every 100 in-migrants. This migration pattern is the major reason that Florida's population has aged so rapidly over the last 50 years.

Why do people move to Florida? The obvious answer is sun, surf, and sand. In many instances, however, that is not the correct answer. Table 8 shows that climate has a relatively minor effect on migration for younger people. For people younger than age 55, employment (e.g., job transfer, taking a new job, or looking for work) is the major reason for moving to Florida. The impact of climate on migration increases steadily with age, however, and for persons age 55 and

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