MECA Market Growth Road Map - Population Data



MECA Market Growth Road Map – Population Data

January 2006

|Regulatory Item |Population Data |Notes |

|LDVs/LDTs |

|Tier 2 |Total North American LDV/LDT production (2002): 16,196,853 | |

|LEV II |-By country: | |

|ZEV |U.S.: 12,001,302 | |

| |Canada: 2,513,836 | |

| |Mexico: 1,681,715 | |

| |-By vehicle type: | |

| |North America car: 7,443,976 | |

| |North America truck: 8,752,877 | |

| |(2002 Market Data Book, Automotive News) | |

| | | |

| |U. S. light-duty vehicle sales in 2005 totaled approximately 17 million | |

| |units with passenger cars representing 48.5% of sales, light-duty trucks| |

| |51.5% of sales | |

| | | |

| |Total number of U.S. registered passenger cars (2000): 133,621,420 | |

| |(Source: National Transportation Statistics 2002, Bureau of | |

| |Transportation Statistics) | |

| | | |

| |ARB projects new vehicle sales of gasoline PZEVs in California to be | |

| |approximately 750,000 in 2012. | |

| |ARB projects new vehicle sales of AT PZEVs in California to be | |

| |approximately 150,000 in 2012. | |

| |(Source: ARB) | |

| | | |

|Tier 3/LEV III |LEV compliant states about 25% of total U.S. sales | |

| | | |

|Greenhouse Gas |ca. 2 million LDV/LDT sold in CA annually | |

| | | |

| | | |

|Highway Motorcycles |Total sales of highway motorcycles in 2000 was estimated to be 438,000. |Honda, Harley Davidson, Yamaha, Kawasaki, Suzuki, and BMW account for |

| |(Source: U.S. EPA NPRM, 8/02) |nearly 95 percent of all motorcycles sold. Dozens of other minor players|

| | |make up the remaining few percent. Based on available information, over |

| |U.S. sales of all new motorcycle reached 1,050,000 units in 2004 |half of all motorcycles sold in 1998 were made by Honda and Harley |

| |(Motorcycle Industry Council) |Davidson, with the two companies maintaining almost equal market shares |

| | |of about 25 percent each |

| |In 1998, there were about 5.4 million highway motorcycles in use in the | |

| |U.S. (565,000 of which are dual-sport). Total sales of highway |2003 market share info: Honda-27.4%; Harley-23.7%; Yamaha-17.4%; |

| |motorcycles in 1998 was estimated to be 411,000, or about 72 percent of |Suzuki-10.8%; Kawasaki-8.7% |

| |motorcycle sales. About 13,000 of these were dual-sport motorcycles. | |

| |(Source: Motorcycle Industry Council) | |

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|Light-duty Aftermarket Converters |New aftermarket converters manufactured for sale in North America | |

| |(2004): approximately 3.4 million (Source: MECA) | |

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|Upgrade Light-duty Catalytic Converters |6-8 million 1984-1994 MY LDVs in CA | |

| |(Source: conversations with Paul Hughes of ARB) | |

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|On-Road HDEs |

|Phase II |Based on data from engine manufacturers, it was estimated that engine |Market Share for Class 8 diesel engines (Source: Merrill Lynch): |

| |sales in 1995 were: | |

| |-Light heavy-duty engines: 280,000 |2004 2003 2002 |

| |-Medium heavy-duty engines: 140,000 |Caterpillar 30.2% 33.8% 34.0% |

| |-Heavy heavy-duty engines: 220,000 |Cummins 25.4% 20.5% 23.5% |

| |Numbers are projected to grow at an annual rate of two percent without |DDC 18.3% 16.6% 21.8% |

| |compounding through 2035. Therefore, estimated 2003 sales would be: |Mack 9.6% 10.4% 12.3% |

| |-LHD: 328,066 |Mercedes 8.3% 10.3% 1.6% |

| |-MHD: 164,031 |Navistar 3.4% 4.3% 4.0% |

| |-HHD: 257,765 |Volvo 4.8% 4.1% 2.8% |

| |(Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support Document) | |

| | | |

| |In April 2005 a report released by R. L. Polk & Co. analyzed new vehicle|Market Share for Class 8 truck sales (Source: Merrill Lynch): |

| |registration data from 2000 through 2004. Light heavy-duty diesel | |

| |vehicle (diesel pick-ups) registrations increased from 278,136 in 2000 |2005 2004 |

| |to 433, 787 in 2004 (56% increase) |DC 36% 36% |

| | |PACCAR 23% 26% |

| |In December 2005 Merrill Lynch reported Class 8 diesel truck sales for |Navistar 19% 19% |

| |12 months ending Nov. 30, 2005 were 299,448 units compared to 227,877 |Volvo 19% 19% |

| |units for the same 12 month period ending Nov. 30, 2004. Class 5-7 |Others 3% 1% |

| |truck sales for 12 months ending Nov. 30, 2005 were 231,946 units | |

| |compared to 226,706 units for 12 months ending Nov. 30, 2004. |Market Share for Class 5-7 truck sales (Source: Merrill Lynch): |

| | | |

| | |2004 |

| | |Navistar 27% 26% |

| | |DC 20% 20% |

| | |Ford 20% 22% |

| | |GMC 15% 12% |

| | |PACCAR 4% 4% |

| | |Others 13% 16% |

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|Off-Road Engines |

|Nonroad CI Engines |EPA anticipates that approximately 800,000 new nonroad diesel engines | |

| |annually will be subject to the nonroad rulemaking (figure based on | |

| |annual sales of nonroad diesel engines). (Source: U.S. EPA) | |

| | | |

| |Projected breakdown of the number of engines to be affected annually by | |

| |EPA’s nonroad rule: | |

| |Rated Power | |

| |Percentage Breakdown | |

| |of 2000 Population | |

| |Number of Engines | |

| | | |

| |750 hp | |

| |0.3% | |

| |2,400 | |

| | | |

| |(Source: Percentage breakdown of 2000 population by U.S. EPA; | |

| |Projection of number of engines by MECA) | |

| | | |

|Nonroad SI Engines >25 hp |Total large SI engine sales are about 150,000 per year in the U.S. |Sales are distributed rather evenly among several companies, so typical |

| |(Source: U.S. EPA) |sales volumes for each company range generally from 10,000 to 25,000 |

| | |engines per year. |

| |ARB estimates current lift truck population in CA at approx. 40,000 | |

| |units (about 30,000 with SI engines, the rest are electric) | |

| | | |

|Recreational SI Engines |Off-Highway Motorcycles |EPA is aware of five major companies that dominate sales of off-highway |

| |-Total sales of off-highway motorcycles in 2001 was estimated to be |motorcycles. Four of these companies, Honda, Kawasaki, Suzuki, and |

| |195,000. (Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support Document, 9/02) |Yamaha, are long established, major corporations that manufacture a |

| |-In 1998, off-highway motorcycles comprised 28 percent of total |number of products including highway and off-highway motorcycles. They |

| |motorcycle sales. (Source: Motorcycle Industry Council) |have dominated the off-highway motorcycle market for over thirty years. |

| | |The fifth major company, KTM, is also long established but has had a |

| |Snowmobiles |major impact in domestic sales over the last 10 to 15 years. These five |

| |-Total sales of snowmobiles in 2001 was estimated to be 228,000. |companies account for approximately 90 to 95 percent of all domestic |

| |(Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support Document, 9/02) |sales for off-highway motorcycles. |

| | | |

| |ATVs |Based on available industry information, four major snowmobile |

| |-Total sales of ATVs in 2001 was estimated to be 880,000. (Source: |manufacturers, Arctic Cat, Bombardier (also known as Ski-Doo), Polaris, |

| |U.S. EPA Regulatory Support Document, 9/02) |and Yamaha, account for approximately 99 percent of all domestic |

| | |snowmobile sales |

| | | |

| | |The ATV sector has the broadest assortment of major manufacturers. With |

| | |the exception of KTM, all of the companies noted above for off-highway |

| | |motorcycles and snowmobiles are significant ATV producers. These seven |

| | |companies represent over 95 percent of total domestic ATV sales. The |

| | |remaining 5 percent come from importers who tend to import inexpensive, |

| | |youth-oriented ATVs from China and other Asian nations |

| | | |

|Nonroad SI Engines 225 cc non-handheld) approximately 4.5 |

| |shipments for 2001 would remain at 2000 levels. |million engines |

| |-Trimmers and Brushcutters: During 2000, industry shipments of | |

| |gasoline-powered trimmers and brushcutters increased 9 percent to |Data presented by EPA at the October 5, 2005 small engine workshop |

| |4,749,500 units. It was estimated that industry shipments for 2001 |indicate major engine manufacturers for non-handheld equipment include: |

| |would increase 2 percent. |Briggs & Stratton (> 50% share), Tecumseh, Honda, Kohler, Kawasaki, Fuji,|

| |-Handheld Blowers: During 2000, industry shipments of gasoline-powered |and Onan. Major equipment manufacturers for non-handheld equipment |

| |hand held blowers increased 15 percent to 1,895,030 units. It was |include: EHP, MTD, Briggs & Stratton, Murray, Toro, Honda, Deere, and |

| |estimated that industry shipments for 2001 would increase 5 percent. |Ariens. |

| |-Backpack Blowers: During 2000, industry shipments of gasoline-powered | |

| |backpack blowers increased 6 percent to 308,450 units. It was estimated| |

| |that industry shipments for 2001 would increase 2 percent. | |

| |-Cutoff Saws: During 2000, industry shipments of gasoline-powered | |

| |cutoff saws decreased 2 percent to 119,720 units. It was estimated that| |

| |industry shipments for 2001 would remain at 2000 levels. | |

| |-Hedge Trimmers: During 2000, industry shipments of gasoline-powered | |

| |hedge trimmers increased 19 percent to 380,900 units. It was estimated | |

| |that industry shipments for 2001 would increase 5 percent. | |

| |-Edgers: During 2001, industry shipments of gasoline-powered edgers | |

| |increased 16 percent to 77,350 units. It was estimated that industry | |

| |shipments for 2001 would increase 2 percent. | |

| | | |

| |Non-handheld (Source: OPEI) | |

| |-For the 2001 model year, shipments of consumer walk-behinds were | |

| |forecast to decrease by 1.8% to 6,031,941, while all riding units were | |

| |forecast to drop 3.8% to 1,650,797. For 2002, consumer walk-behinds | |

| |were forecast to be down 0.7%, and all riding units would drop 1.5%. | |

|Marine SI Outboard/PWC |In 2000, NMMA estimated that 241,600 outboard motors and 92,000 personal| |

| |watercraft were sold. (Source: National Marine Manufacturers | |

| |Association) | |

| | | |

|Marine SI Sterndrive |Population of sterndrive boats in 2002: 1,767,100 |Recent statements made by NMMA (April 2005) indicate 2004 sales of |

| |Population of inboard boats (CI and SI) in 2002: 1,705,700 |sterndrive/inboard gasoline engines were approximately 140,000 units with|

| |Retails sales estimates of sterndrive boats in 2002: 68,400 |the following breakdown: |

| |Retail sales estimates of inboard boats (CI and SI) in 2002: 20,800 | |

| |(Source: National Marine Manufacturers Association) |5.0 or 5.7 L V8 – ca. 80,000 engines |

| | |4.3 L V6 – ca. 30,000 engines |

| | |8.1 L V8 – ca. 9,000 engines |

|Recreational CI Marine |Population of inboard boats (CI and SI) in 2002: 1,705,700 | |

| |Retail sales estimates of inboard boats (CI and SI) in 2002: 20,800 | |

| |(Source: National Marine Manufacturers Association) | |

|Commercial CI Marine |To be determined | |

| | | |

|Locomotives |Total number of Class I locomotives (2000): 20,028 | |

| |Total number of Amtrak locomotives (2000): 378 | |

| |Class I locomotive deliveries (2000): 640 | |

| |Amtrak locomotive deliveries (2000): 4 | |

| |(Source: National Transportation Statistics 2002, Bureau of | |

| |Transportation Statistics) | |

| | | |

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|Stationary CI Engines |EPA estimates 81,500 new stationary CI engines sold in U.S. annually | |

| |(Source: EPA Stationary CI Engine NPRM, July 2005) | |

| |

|Diesel Retrofit |

|School Buses |In 2001, there were approximately 454,000 total school buses in the U.S.|Breakdown of U.S. school bus population by model year and state can be |

| |(Source: “Pollution Report Card”, Union of Concerned Scientists, Feb. |found in the full UCS report: |

| |2002) |publication.cfm?publicationID=418 |

|Transit Buses & Transit Fleet Vehicles (CA) |In 2001, 6,656 total diesel urban buses (pre-88: 975, 88-90: 1656, | |

| |91-93: 1435, 94-95: 359, 96-02: 2331) (Source: ARB presentation, | |

| |“Workshop – Transit Bus Fleet Rule”, El Monte, June 25, 2002) | |

| | | |

| |Transit Fleet Vehicles in CA total approximately 3500 diesel vehicles | |

| |with GVW of 8500 lb. or greater | |

| | | |

| |(Source: ARB staff report on regulations for transit fleet vehicles, | |

| |January 2005) | |

|Solid Waste Collection Vehicles (CA) |There are approximately 13,000 solid waste collection vehicles statewide|Breakdown by engine manufacturer statewide: Cummins - 65%, Volvo - 13%, |

| |(Source: conversation with ARB’s Nancy Steele) |Caterpillar - 12%, International/Navistar - 5%, Detroit Diesel - 2%, Mack|

| | |- 2%, Other - 1% |

| |In Los Angeles, 683 city-owned vehicles in refuse fleet (661 belong to |Breakdown by fleet application statewide: side loader - 39%, rear loader|

| |the Bureau of Sanitation). (Source: ARB report, “Preliminary |- 29%, front end loader - 25%, rolloff - 7% |

| |Assessment of Technology for Diesel Particulate Matter Reduction from |(Source: ARB report, “Preliminary Assessment of Technology for Diesel |

| |Solid Waste Collection Vehicles”, Appendix C, April 2003) |Particulate Matter Reduction from Solid Waste Collection Vehicles”, |

| | |Appendix C, April 2003) |

|Fuel Tanker Trucks (CA) |ca. 3200 trucks operating in CA (14,000 lb. GVW or greater) | |

| |50% of the fleet is 98 MY or newer | |

| |(Source: ARB workshop presentation from September10, 2003 public | |

| |workshop) | |

|Public & Utility HDV Fleets (CA) |ARB estimates for heavy-duty diesel public and utility fleet vehicles | |

| |operating in California (over 14,000 lb. GVWR): | |

| | | |

| |Owned by state & local agencies: 23,227 vehicles | |

| |Owned by private utilities: 3,979 vehicles (3,130 of these owned by 3 | |

| |largest utilities: Southern California Edison, PG&E, Sempra Energy) | |

| |Federally owned: 2,663 vehicles | |

| | | |

| |(Source: ARB staff report on regulations for public and utility fleet | |

| |vehicles, October 2005) | |

| | | |

| | | |

| |ARB inventory data show more than 49 vehicle types with the following | |

| |distribution of engine ages: | |

| |- pre-1987: 15% | |

| |1988-1990: 12% | |

| |1991-1993: 17% | |

| |1994-2003: 55% | |

|Ground Support Equipment (CA) |Number of diesel GSE in South Coast (1997 fleet): |Breakdown of GSE in South Coast (1997 fleet): |

| |-pre-90: 396 |-diesel aircraft tractors: pre-90: 94, post:-90: 64 |

| |-post-90: 553 |-diesel baggage tractors: pre-90: 73, post-90: 97 |

| |Number of diesel GSE in rest of CA (1999 fleet): ~1,225 |-diesel cargo tractors: pre-90: 1, post-90: 15 |

| |(Source: Air Transport Association presentation, “DPF |-diesel belt loaders: pre-90: 32, post-90: 59 |

| |Demonstration/Verification Project”, September 23, 2002) |-diesel cargo loaders: pre-90: 36, post-90: 99 |

| | |-diesel air conditioners: pre-90: 4, post-90: 6 |

| | |-diesel air starts: pre-90: 41, post-90: 32 |

| | |-diesel ground power units: pre-90: 69, post-90: 75 |

| | |(Source: Air Transport Association presentation, “DPF |

| | |Demonstration/Verification Project”, September 23, 2002) |

|Transport Refrigeration Units (CA) |Existing population: 40,831 (Source: ARB presentation, “Regulatory | |

| |Approaches to Reduce Particulate Matter Emissions from Transport | |

| |Refrigeration Units”, March 6, 2003) | |

|Stationary Engines (CA) |Emergency standby engines: 11,350 | |

| |Prime engines: 1,360 | |

| |(Source: ARB presentation, “Presentation of the Methods and Key | |

| |Assumptions for Estimating the Costs for In-Use Stationary Engines”, | |

| |March 6, 2003) | |

|Cargo Handling Equipment (CA) |ARB estimates that there are approximately 3,700 mobile cargo handling | |

| |equipment vehicles at California’s ports and intermodal rail yards. | |

| |Equipment types include: | |

| | | |

| |Yard Trucks (61% of the population) | |

| |Container Handling (13%) | |

| |Forklifts (13%) | |

| |Cranes (9%) | |

| |Bulk Cargo Handling (4%) | |

| | | |

| |(Source: ARB staff report on regulations for mobile cargo handling | |

| |equipment, October 2005) | |

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