The Impact of Court-Supervised Modifications on Subprime Foreclosures ...

[Pages:1]The Impact of Court-Supervised Modifications

on Subprime Foreclosures

KENTUCKY

Projected Foreclosure Impact in Kentucky

Foreclosures expected to occur (primarily 2008-2009)

Spillover impact: Surrounding homes suffering price declines caused by nearby foreclosures Decrease in home values/tax base

Average decrease in home value per unit affected

21,153 homes lost

249,727 homes $498 million

$1,993

Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications for Kentucky families

Reduced foreclosures Savings in home values/tax base

5,288 fewer homes lost $124 million saved

Need to act now because the problem is worsening

State Subprime Foreclosure Starts (2003-2007)

2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000

800 600 400 200 -

1Q2003 2Q2003 3Q2003 4Q2003 1Q2004 2Q2004 3Q2004 4Q2004 1Q2005 2Q2005 3Q2005 4Q2005 1Q2006 2Q2006 3Q2006 4Q2006 1Q2007 2Q2007 3Q2007

Note: Original CRL projections of subprime foreclosures and spillover impact updated to reflect newer estimates of subprime defaults as reported by Merrill Lynch (The Market Economist, December 14, 2007) and Moody's (). Additionally, foreclosure estimates calculated using outstanding subprime loans reported by the MBA in its 3Q 2007 National Delinquency Survey; latter is also the source for the subprime foreclosure starts. Spillover results do not include areas outside of metropolitan statistical areas. CRL reports on subprime foreclosures and spillover impact available at and

Center for Responsible Lending 2/22/2008

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