Career Development and Lifestyle Planning



Decision Models2 CreditsBU.520.601.XX[NOTE: Each section must have a separate syllabus.][Day & Time / ex: Monday, 6pm-9pm][Start & End Dates / ex: 10/24/17-11/12/17][Semester / ex: Fall 2017][Location / ex: Washington, DC]Instructor[Full Name]Contact Information[Email Address][Phone Number, (###) ###-#### (Optional)]Office Hours[Please specify the day and time of the 2 hours that will be dedicated to office hours each week. For evening classes, faculty may wish to hold their office hours by phone or email. While faculty are permitted to state “and by appointment,” office hours should not be held exclusively by appointment.]Required Text(s) & Learning MaterialsStephen G. Powell and Kenneth R. Baker, Business Analytics: The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets (5th ed.). John Wiley & Sons Inc. ISBN 978-1-119-29842-7. Additional learning material in the form of notes, copies of PowerPoint slides, and/or Excel spreadsheets may be posted from time to time; these can vary from instructor to instructor.For learning Microsoft Excel, there are several resources available:A number of books on Microsoft Excel are available; you may find some inexpensive paperback quite useful.Answers to most questions on the use of Excel can be found by searching the Internet.Course Description and OverviewThis course discusses quantitative methods that have proven to be particularly useful for decision making in business settings. The course covers a variety of models and methodologies. While a number of software programs are available, the course will leverage the capabilities of Excel for a large number of topics. An emphasis will be placed on formulating problems, translating those formulations into useful models, optimizing and/or displaying the models, and interpreting results. The lessons of this course prepare students to perform the analysis required in subsequent courses and in practice. Topics such as Linear and Integer Linear Programming, Network Flow, Decision Analysis, and Monte Carlo Simulation will be discussed to demonstrate applications in planning and control for different types of business decisions.This course will not produce experts at modeling the most complex decisions. Its goal is to produce managers who are comfortable with formulating models of important and realistic decisions, solving them using a spreadsheet (typically Microsoft Excel), and making sense of the results. Some of the models discussed in the course are well documented in the academic literature, while others are quietly being used in practice. The primary emphasis of this course is on formulation and interpretation, but you will pick up quite a few spreadsheet skills along the way. We will engage in systematic approaches to a wide array of problems. The style of analysis, model development, optimization, and interpretation lends itself to a plethora of problem settings, and develops a set of fundamental skills that are essential for survival when dealing with difficult decisions in an uncertain world.Prerequisite(s)BU.510.601 OR BU.914.610Learning ObjectivesBy the end of this course, students will be able to: Identify and describe the trade-offs that define a problem setting.Translate this understanding into a problem formulation.Create a spreadsheet-based model that embodies this formulation.Utilize the capabilities of Excel to develop insights about what should be done in the setting of interest.Interpret the output of a decision model and use it as a guide to improve performance.To view the complete list of Carey Business School’s general learning goals and objectives, visit the Carey website.Attendance Attendance and class participation is expected from everyone; students are expected to inform in advance if they have to miss a class due to business travel or other important matters. They are, however, responsible for submission of assignments on time as well as keeping up with the material covered in the missed lecture. Failure to inform will be treated as absence without excuse. Absence due to illness or family emergency will be handled on individual basis.Assignments and ExamsThe class will be divided into groups (of suitable sizes based on enrollment) for group exercises; the same groups may be used for the homework assignments.Reading assignments: Students are expected to read the lecture topics from the textbook (a quick reading) before coming to each class (see the last column of the Course Calendar table).Weekly group exercises: Conducted at the end of most classes, will be based on material covered in that lecture or earlier. Major group exercise: (in class, in lecture 7) Group performance will be judged on the basis of appropriate report; the report may be in two parts (prior and post exercise).Homework assignments: Typically, there will be 3 to 5 assignments. Each instructor can make the assignments as group or individual assignments, or a combination. Final exam: The last lecture will be devoted to the final exam (approximate duration: 2 hours 45 minutes). The exam will be mostly on modeling aspects rather than questions involving spreadsheets. Individual instructors will explain specific requirements (for submission: electronic or hard copies; details of the exam; percentage weights – see table below) through periodic communications. Instructors may add a midterm exam or substitute midterm for the final exam, not assign weekly group exercises, etc.While group members share their work, do not discuss or share assignments with other groups. Individual assignments must be carried out individually.A peer evaluation form will be used to judge group participation.AssignmentLearning ObjectivesWeightMajor group exercise and report1 – 515% to 20% Homework assignments1 – 530% to 40% Final exam1 – 540% to 50%Total100%The following penalties may be used before the final grade is assigned:Absenteeism: For two or more absences without excuse - 3% to 5%.For non-submission of weekly group exercise results: 1% for each non-submission.Peer evaluation: 3% to 5%, if an individual is found to have made very little contribution to group work.GradingEffective Fall 2017: The grade of A is reserved for those who demonstrate extraordinarily excellent performance as determined by the instructor. The grade of A- is awarded only for excellent performance. The grades of B+, B, and B- are awarded for good performance. The grades of C+, C, and C- are awarded for adequate but substandard performance.?The grades of D+, D, and D- are not awarded at the graduate level (undergraduate only). The grade of F indicates the student’s failure to satisfactorily complete the course work.Please note that for Core and Foundation courses, a maximum of 25% of students may be awarded an A or A-; the grade point average of the class should not exceed 3.3. For Elective courses, a maximum of 35% of students may be awarded an A or A-; the grade point average of the class should not exceed 3.4. (For classes with 15 students or fewer, the class GPA cap is waived.)Tentative Course CalendarThe instructors reserve the right to alter course content and/or adjust the pace to accommodate class progress. Students are responsible for keeping up with all adjustments to the course calendar.Students should be reasonably familiar with the material presented in Appendix 1 and 3.WeekTopicSelected Topics from Textbook ChaptersUseful material on Excel and probability conceptsAppendix 1 and 31Introduction, Hands-on exercise, Using Excel1, 2, 3, 4.32Linear Programming (LP) - also called linear optimization: History, two-variable LP with the graph of the feasible region. Multi-variable formulation. Using Solver.Allocation, covering, blending, and production planning models.8.1, 9.1 to 9.4 3LP: Understanding Solver answer report. LP Sensitivity Analysis: effect of changes in the objective function and RHS work-based Decision Models: Transportation / transshipment models, Assignment9.5, 10.1 to 10.54Integer Optimization: Capital budgeting, Knapsack, Set covering, Dynamic lot sizingAggregate planning 115Monte Carlo Simulation14, some discussion from 156Decision Analysis (DA): Terminology, DA without probabilities (Maximax, Maximin, Minimax Regret), DA with probabilities: (Decision point / branch, chance event / branch, .., Decision tree with examples including sensitivity analysis, Earned value of information)Brief discussion of utility theory137In-class Simulation Game,Semester Review8Final Exam Note: Some topics included in the course may not be covered in the textbook. Some topics from other chapters not listed may be covered or pointed out for additional reading.Carey Business SchoolPolicies and General InformationBlackboard SiteA Blackboard course site is set up for this course. Each student is expected to check the site throughout the semester as Blackboard will be the primary venue for outside classroom communications between the instructors and the students. Students can access the course site at . Support for Blackboard is available at 1-866-669-6138.Course EvaluationAs a research and learning community, the Carey Business School is committed to continuous improvement. The faculty strongly encourages students to provide complete and honest feedback for this course. Please take this activity seriously; we depend on your feedback to help us improve. Information on how to complete the evaluation will be provided toward the end of the course.Disability Support ServicesAll students with disabilities who require accommodations for this course should contact Disability Support Services at their earliest convenience to discuss their specific needs. If you have a documented disability, you must be registered with Disability Support Services (carey.disability@jhu.edu or 410-234-9243) to receive accommodations. For more information, please visit the Disability Support Services webpage.Academic Ethics PolicyCarey expects graduates to be innovative business leaders and exemplary global citizens. The Carey community believes that honesty, integrity, and community responsibility are qualities inherent in an exemplary citizen. The objective of the Academic Ethics Policy (AEP) is to create an environment of trust and respect among all members of the Carey academic community and hold Carey students accountable to the highest standards of academic integrity and excellence.It is the responsibility of every Carey student, faculty member, and staff member to familiarize themselves with the AEP and its procedures. Failure to become acquainted with this information will not excuse any student, faculty, or staff from the responsibility to abide by the AEP. Please contact the Student Services office if you have any questions. For the full policy, please visit the Academic Ethics Policy webpage.Students are not allowed to use any electronic devices during in-class tests. Calculators will be provided if the instructor requires them for test taking. Students must seek permission from the instructor to leave the classroom during an in-class test. Test scripts must not be removed from the classroom during the test.Student Conduct CodeThe fundamental purpose of the Johns Hopkins University’s regulation of student conduct is to promote and to protect the health, safety, welfare, property, and rights of all members of the University community as well as to promote the orderly operation of the University and to safeguard its property and facilities. As members of the University community, students accept certain responsibilities which support the educational mission and create an environment in which all students are afforded the same opportunity to succeed academically. Please contact the Student Services office if you have any questions. For the full policy, please visit the Student Conduct Code webpage.Student Success CenterThe Student Success Center offers free online and in-person one-on-one and group coaching in writing, presenting, and quantitative courses. The center also offers a variety of workshops, exam study sessions, and instructor-led primer seminars to help prepare students for challenging course content, including statistics and accounting. For more information or to book an appointment, please visit the Student Success Center website.Other Important Academic Policies and ServicesStudents are strongly encouraged to consult the Carey Business School’s Student Handbook and Academic Catalog and Student Resources for information regarding the following items:Statement of Diversity and InclusionInclement Weather PolicyCopyright StatementUnless explicitly allowed by the instructor, course materials, class discussions, and examinations are created for and expected to be used by class participants only.?The recording and rebroadcasting of such material, by any means, is forbidden. Violations are subject to sanctions under the Honor Code. ................
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