Public School Enrollment Projections 2019 -2028

Public School Enrollment Projections

2019 -2028

August 2019

State of Maryland

Larry Hogan Governor

Boyd K. Rutherford Lt. Governor

Maryland Department of Planning

Robert McCord Secretary

Sandra Schrader Deputy Secretary

Maryland Department of Planning 301 West Preston Street, Suite 1101 Baltimore, Maryland 21201 Tel: 410.767.4500 Toll Free: 1.877.767.6272 TTY users: Maryland Relay planning.

Public School Enrollment Projections, 2019-2028 August 2019 Publication No. 2019-001

This Public School Enrollment Projections report was produced by the Projections and State Data Center of the Maryland Department of Planning as a service to local governments and planning officials.

Foreword

This report, Public School Enrollment Projections, 2019-2028, is an update of the Maryland Department of Planning's annual report on public school enrollment statistics.

The report provides projections of public school enrollment through 2028 by grade for each of Maryland's jurisdictions (23 counties and Baltimore City). Statistics on actual total and public-school enrollment for 2008-2018 are also included.

The public-school enrollment projections utilize the Maryland Department of Planning's population projections by age and sex for each jurisdiction. The population projections are used to derive school-age population (persons 5-17 years of age) and projected births. These projections are then used in conjunction with a "grade succession" methodology to derive the ten-year, grade-specific enrollment projections.

A preliminary set of enrollment projections and supporting materials documenting the projection methodology were sent previously to each School Superintendent and facility planner.

Table of Contents

Foreword............................................................................................................................................................................................... i Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1

Statewide Totals .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Jurisdiction Trends ........................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Long-Term Statewide Demographic Perspective................................................................................................................................. 8 Births................................................................................................................................................................................................ 9 Domestic Migration and Foreign Immigration .............................................................................................................................. 12 Intra-State Migration ..................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Public/Private Enrollment Share.................................................................................................................................................... 17 Trends and Projections in Public School Enrollment by Type ............................................................................................................ 18 Total Public School Enrollment...................................................................................................................................................... 18 Public Elementary School Enrollment (grades K through 5) ........................................................................................................... 18 Public Middle School Enrollment (grades 6 through 8) .................................................................................................................. 19 Public High School Enrollment (grades 9 through 12) .................................................................................................................... 20 Jurisdiction Projections over the Next 10 Years................................................................................................................................. 22 Total Enrollment ............................................................................................................................................................................ 22 Elementary School Enrollment ....................................................................................................................................................... 28 Middle School Enrollment ............................................................................................................................................................. 32 High School Enrollment ................................................................................................................................................................. 36 Methodology...................................................................................................................................................................................... 40 Population Projections .................................................................................................................................................................. 40 Grade Succession Projections........................................................................................................................................................ 40 Organization of Detailed Data Tables ................................................................................................................................................ 44

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List of Charts

Chart 1 - Historical Annual Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland, 2008 - 2018 .................................... 1 Chart 2 - Projected Annual Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2028.................................... 2 Chart 3- Projected Annual Change in Public Elementary School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2028 .......................... 3 Chart 4- Projected Annual Change in Public Middle School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018-2028 ................................... 4 Chart 5- Projected Annual Change in Public High School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2028 ..................................... 5 Chart 6- Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland Historical and Projected, 1970 - 2028........................................... 8 Chart 7- Total Births in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1940 - 2024 ........................................................................ 9 Chart 8- Cumulative Births by School Year in Maryland Historical & Projected, 1970 - 2028 ........................................ 10 Chart 9- Annual Change in Cumulative Births by School Year in Maryland, Historical & Projected, 1971 - 2028 .......... 11 Chart 10- Average Annual Net Domestic Migration and Foreign Immigration into Maryland ....................................... 12 Chart 11- Average Total Net Migration for Maryland by decade ................................................................................... 13 Chart 12- Increase in Foreign Born as a Percent of Change in Total Population, 2000 - 2017 ....................................... 14 Chart 13- Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2000 - 2017 ................... 15 Chart 14- Percent Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2000 - 2018..... 16 Chart 15- Share of Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2000 and 2018 ................ 17 Chart 16- Public Elementary School Enrollment in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1972 - 2028 ........................... 19 Chart 17- Public Middle School Enrollment in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1972 - 2028 .................................. 20 Chart 18- Public High School Enrollment in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1972 - 2028 ...................................... 21 Chart 19- Change in Public School Enrollment by Jurisdiction, 2018 ? 2028 ................................................................. 22 Chart 20- Percent Change in Public School Enrollment by Jurisdiction, 2018 ? 2028 .................................................... 27

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List of Tables

Table 1- Summary of Historical and Projected Public School Enrollment for Maryland................................................... 2 Table 2 - Summary of Historical and Projected Total Public School Enrollment for Maryland's Jurisdictions ................. 7 Table 3- Total Public School Enrollment (Grades K-12) By Jurisdiction, Actual (2018) & Projected (2019-2028) .......... 23 Table 4- Cumulative Change in Total Public School Enrollment (Grades K-12) from Actual 2018, by Jurisdiction......... 24 Table 5- Cumulative Percent Change in Total Public School Enrollment (Grades K-12), by Jurisdiction ........................ 25 Table 6- Public Elementary School Enrollment (Grades K-5), by Jurisdiction, Actual (2018) & Projected (2019-2028) . 29 Table 7- Cumulative Change in Public Elementary School Enrollment (Grades K-5) from Actual 2018, by Jurisdiction 30 Table 8- Cumulative Percent Change in Public Elementary School Enrollment (Grades K-5), by Jurisdiction................ 31 Table 9- Public Middle School Enrollment (Grades 6-8), by Jurisdiction, Actual (2018) & Projected (2019-2028) ........ 33 Table 10- Cumulative Change in Public Middle School Enrollment (Grades 6-8) from Actual 2018, by Jurisdiction ..... 34 Table 11- Cumulative Percent Change in Public Middle School Enrollment (Grades 6-8), by Jurisdiction..................... 35 Table 12- Public High School Enrollment (Grades 9-12), By Jurisdiction, Actual (2018) & Projected (2019-2028) ........ 36 Table 13- Cumulative Change in Public High School Enrollment (Grades 9-12) from Actual 2018, by Jurisdiction ....... 38 Table 14- Cumulative Percent Change in Public High School Enrollment (Grades 9-12), by Jurisdiction....................... 39

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Appendix A: State of Maryland

Total (Public and Private) Historical Enrollments 2008 - 2018..........................................................................................................A-1 Public School Historical Enrollments 2008 - 2018.............................................................................................................................A-2 Percent of School Enrollment in Public Schools 2008 - 2018............................................................................................................A-3 Public School Enrollment Historical 2018 and Projected 2019 - 2028 ..............................................................................................A-4 Ratio Kindergarten and First Grade to Births - Historical and Projected ..........................................................................................A-5

Appendix B: Baltimore City and the Counties

Baltimore City ................................................................................................................................................................................... B-1 Total (Public and Private) Historical Enrollments 2008 - 2018 ........................................................................................... B-1 Public School Historical Enrollments 2008 - 2018 .............................................................................................................. B-2 Percent of School Enrollment in Public Schools 2008 - 2018 ............................................................................................. B-3 Public School Enrollment Historical 2018 and Projected 2019 - 2028................................................................................B-4 Ratio of Kindergarten and First Grade to Births - Historical and Projected........................................................................B-5 Grade Succession Ratios - Historical ................................................................................................................................... B-6

Allegany County ................................................................................................................................................................................ B-8 Anne Arundel County ...................................................................................................................................................................... B-15 Baltimore County ............................................................................................................................................................................ B-22 Calvert County.................................................................................................................................................................................B-29 Caroline County...............................................................................................................................................................................B-36 Carroll County ................................................................................................................................................................................. B-43 Cecil County .................................................................................................................................................................................... B-50 Charles County ................................................................................................................................................................................ B-57 Dorchester County .......................................................................................................................................................................... B-64 Frederick County ............................................................................................................................................................................. B-71 Garrett County ................................................................................................................................................................................ B-78 Harford County ............................................................................................................................................................................... B-85

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Howard County ............................................................................................................................................................................... B-92 Kent County..................................................................................................................................................................................... B-99 Montgomery County.....................................................................................................................................................................B-106 Prince George's County.................................................................................................................................................................B-113 Queen Anne's County ...................................................................................................................................................................B-120 St. Mary's County ..........................................................................................................................................................................B-127 Somerset County...........................................................................................................................................................................B-134 Talbot County................................................................................................................................................................................B-141 Washington County.......................................................................................................................................................................B-148 Wicomico County ..........................................................................................................................................................................B-155 Worcester County .........................................................................................................................................................................B-162

Appendix C: Summary of School Enrollment by Jurisdiction

Total (Public and Private) Historical Enrollments 2008 - 2018..........................................................................................................C-1 Public School Historical Enrollments 2008 - 2018.............................................................................................................................C-2 Percent of School Enrollment in Public Schools 2008 - 2018............................................................................................................C-3 Public School Enrollment Historical 2018 and Projected 2019 - 2028 .............................................................................................. C-4

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