Fundamental, Sentiment,^& Technical - Yardeni Research
Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment,
& Technical
Yardeni Research, Inc.
December 17, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Joe Abbott
480-664-1333 jabbott@
Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333 djohnson@
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333 aquintana@
Please visit our sites at blog.
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
1
Global Growth Barometer
2
Economic Surprise Index
3
Investors Intelligence Sentiment
4
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
5
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
6
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0
7
AAII Sentiment
8
Volatility
9
Volume
10
Dow Theory
11
S&P 500 Moving Averages
12-13
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma
14
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 15
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50016
December 17, 2021 / Fundamental, Sentiment,^& Technical
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
Figure 1.
850
5000
S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES
12/17
4500
750
S&P 500 Index
CRB Raw Industrials Spot Index
650
12/16
4000 3500
3000 550
2500
450
2000
1500 350
1000
250
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Commodity Research Bureau.
Figure 2.
-100
S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
300
700
1100
1500
S&P 500 Index
1900
2300
12/11 12/17
5000 4500 4000 3500
2700
3000
3100
Initial Unemployment Claims
3500
(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,
2500
inverted scale) 3900
4300
2000
4700 5100
1500
5500 5900 6300
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
1000 500
Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor's.
Page 1 / December 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc.
Global Growth Barometer
Figure 3.
5000
5000
YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500
4500
12/17
4500
4000
YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1210.5)
4000
S&P 500 Index (4620.6)
3500
3500
3000
3000
2500
2500
2000
2000
1500 1000
12/16
1500 1000
500
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added. Source: Standard & Poor's and Commodity Research Bureau.
Figure 4.
200
US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE
175 S&P 500 Index
Brent Crude Oil Price*
150
(dollars per barrel)
125
100
75
50
12/17 12/16
5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500
25
1000
0
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* Nearby futures price. Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
Page 2 / December 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc.
Economic Surprise Index
Figure 5.
1000
400
S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX
(percent)
350
800
300
600
250
200
400
150
12/17
100
200
50
12/17
0
0
-50 -200
-100
-400
-150
-200
-600
S&P 500 minus its
200 day-moving average
-250
-300
-800
Economic Surprise Index
-350
-1000
-400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.
Figure 6.
25
300
S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX
(percent) 250
23
S&P 500 Forward P/E* 200
21
12/9
150
19 100
17
50
12/17
0 15
-50
13
-100
11
Economic Surprise Index
-150
9
-200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Standard & Poor's, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv, and Citigroup.
Page 3 / December 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc.
Investors Intelligence Sentiment
Figure 7.
6
6
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS
5
Ratio
Ratio
5
Bull/Bear
Nov 30
2.00
4
Ratio*
Dec 7
1.57
Dec 14
1.80
4
3
3
2
2
12/14
1
1
0
0
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
80
80
75
Percentage
Bulls Bears
75
70
Bulls
Dec 7
39.8
25.3
Dec 14
43.9
24.4
70
65
Bears
Dec 21
39.8
NA
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
12/21 40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
50
50
45
Percentage
Correction
Correction
Nov 30
25.9
40
Dec 7
34.9
Dec 14
31.7
35
30
45 40 35 12/14 30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Source: Investors Intelligence.
Page 4 / December 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc.
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
Figure 8.
5200
4700 4200
3700
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE* (ratio scale)
3200
2700
2200
1700
1200
700
12/17
5200 4700 4200 3700 3200
2700
2200
1700
1200
700
200
200
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Standard & Poor's and Investors Intelligence.
41600 36600 31600 26600
21600
Figure 9.
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE* (ratio scale)
16600
11600
12/17
41600 36600 31600 26600
21600
16600
11600
6600
6600
1600
1600
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Page 5 / December 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc.
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
Figure 10.
5200
4700 4200
3700
S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*
3200
(ratio scale)
2700
2200
1700
1200
700
12/17
5200 4700 4200 3700 3200
2700
2200
1700
1200
700
200
200
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Standard & Poor's and Investors Intelligence.
41600 36600 31600 26600
21600
Figure 11.
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS* (ratio scale)
16600
11600
12/17
41600 36600 31600 26600
21600
16600
11600
6600
6600
1600
1600
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Page 6 / December 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc.
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