The Merriman Market Analyst, Inc - Constant Contact



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MMA WEEKLY COMMENTS AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS

FOR WEEK OF DECEMBER 19, 2016

Comments: Please take a moment to view my weekly geocosmic comments on the stock market. Alternatively, you can go to , and then choose Weekly Preview. For other web sites in English: English2 or English3. We are also pleased to announce that these weekly geocosmic comments are now available in German – Dutch - French - Italiano – Japanese –Russian –Serbian2, , , .

NOTE 1: This would be a good time to sign up for one of our two financial events of next year. The first is THE MMA 2017 INVESTMENT RETREAT take place at the beautiful Kona Kai Resort on Shelter Island in San Diego, California, March 9-13, 2017, located right on the Pacific Ocean. As a subscriber to this report, you qualify for a 10% discount – a savings of $400. This unique event is especially designed for MMA subscribers and investors interested in MMA’s outlook for next several years, based on MMA methods of market timing and trend analysis. The 2017 event will feature presenters such as Ted Lee Fisher, money manager, former member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and a legend in Commodity Futures trading; Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management in Zurich, Switzerland, an asset management company based on wealth preservation principles and also owns Gold vaults in Zurich, the Swiss Alps, Singapore and Hong Kong. Egon was one of the individuals behind the “Save Our Swiss Gold” referendum in Switzerland in 2015. Also on the program will be Robert Corre, financial astrologer and 25-year instructor at New York University's Stern School of Business. Robert topic will be “The Federal Reserve Bank – Its Ever More Important Role in your Future Financial Freedom.” Maria Schoeppel, financial astrologer and mathematics major from UCLA, will present her research and forecasts on “China 2019: Similarities to the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis” Along with Retreat Coordinator Raymond Merriman, some of the brightest minds from the MMTA (Merriman Market Timing Academy) will present their latest research on the best investment ideas of 2017-2018, including MMA analysts Kat Powell and Nitin Bhandari, ICR and British Pound analyst Ulric Aspegren, and ICR editor Mark Shtayerman. There will also be a 4-hour optional series of classes on beginning astrology presented by MMTA graduates Richard Smoot, Darri Murphy, and Izabella Suleymanova. MMA’s first Investment Retreat in September 2015 (Italy) was very successful, as it correctly forecasted long-term lows (and investment opportunities) that would arise in crude oil and precious metals. Is the rally over in Gold and Silver? We will examine that in great depth at this gathering. For more info, where you will be able to register and see what our expert faculty views as the best investments for 2017-2018, and why. Do not miss this powerfully enlightening opportunity to connect with other investors and some of the best market timers in the world. There will be round table discussions between presenters and attendees every day, emceed by Raymond Merriman and MMTA graduate and Washington, D.C. consultant (and insider), Hank Canciglia.

NOTE 2: The second event will be a special 2-day workshop on Financial Astrology and Market Timing, to be presented June 3-4 at Oxford University in Oxford, England! The cost is £995. Normally, this course would cost $1995, so it already heavily discounted. However, with the British Pound so low and due to make a long-term cycle low shortly, now would be an even better time for non-UK residents to sign up and lock in the great currency conversion rate for this event plus travel to Europe next summer. For more information, go to

NOTE 3: Mercury is now retrograde, December 19-January 8. We don’t typically initiate new position trades during this time, only aggressive short-term trades. Plus, it is the holiday season and markets may have very light volume. We wish to take our annual break from the weekly and daily reports starting December 23 through January 2, but we realize that this is also an extremely important geocosmic period where primary cycle lows or highs have a high probability of occurring. Rather than issue or normal 15-page weekly report, we will probably issue special reports to all subscribers of the weekly report as we see opportunities arise during the next two weeks.

Geocosmic Critical Reversal Dates

These dates affect all markets. They are the midpoints of geocosmic clusters, and have a range of three days either side. Sometimes they expand to as much as five days. The idea is to see a new two-week or greater high or low, and then a reversal. It is especially effective when major, half-primary, or primary cycle troughs are due. These are more important than the solar-lunar reversal dates. The more stars there are next to the date, the greater the historical correlation with a cycle end and reversal. For more information, please read Volume 3 of the Stock Market Timing series. Below is the date of the midpoint and in parentheses the length of time containing the geocosmic signatures (known as a “cluster”). If the cluster is long (more than 15 days), there may be other possible reversals, based on tighter geocosmic clusters, within the greater cluster.

Dec 26-Jan 3***

Jan 23*

These periods are usually more important than the solar-lunar reversal zones, but not necessarily any more accurate. It is just that when they do hit, they usually correspond with major, half-primary, or full primary cycles, whereas lunar reversals need only correspond to 2.5% reversals.

DJIA Cash: Last week’s close was neutral with a bearish bias. The close was also above the weekly trend indicator point (TIP) for the 6th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run up.

This week’s trend indicator point (TIP) is 19,524. It will be downgrade back to neutral if this week’s close is below the TIP.

Weekly support is 19,734-19,739. A close below is bearish. A trade below, followed by a close back above this range, is a bullish trigger.

Weekly resistance is 19,952-19,957. A close above this range is bullish. A trade above here, followed by a close back below this range, is a bearish trigger.

Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 18,931-19,018, 18,043-18,408, 17,348-17,352, 15,029-15,149, 13,717-13,760, 13,070-13,163, 12,799-12,802, 11,513-11,572, and 8266-8433.

The DJIA closed above other bearish crossover zones recently at 18,083-18,087 and 18,318-18,367. It closed above another some time ago at 16,892-17,314, so these are now support.

Trend Indicator Studies

The basic trend indicator remains bullish. It will turn bearish if prices fall below the current primary cycle low of 17,883 made on November 4.

The weekly moving average trend indicator study also remains bullish. Prices closed at 19,843, up 86 points from the prior week’s close, and another new all-time high at 19,966 on Tuesday, December 13. The close was above both the 25-week moving average (18,527) and 34-week MA (18,304), and the 25-week MA remains above the 34-week moving average, which makes it bullish. If prices close back below 18,304, it will be downgraded to neutral again. If the 25-week MA moves below the 34-week MA, with prices below each, it will turn bearish.

The daily moving average trend study remains bullish. The close last week was above the 14-day MA (19,514) and the 42-day MA (18,837), and the 14-day MA remains above the 42-day MA, so it is bullish. A close below 18,837 will downgrade it to neutral. If the 14-day MA turns back below the 42-day MA, with prices below each, it will be downgraded to bearish.

Leading Indicator Studies

Long-Term Cycles –bullish

The 6.5- and 4-year cycle lows occurred on August 24, 2015 at 15,370. Both cycles are still relatively young and remain in their bullish phase. Last week’s new all-time high continues to reinforce this analysis. A move below 17,883 would start to question this trend now.

The 17,063 low of June 27 was the 50-week cycle low, as discussed in previous weekly reports. Thus, this starts the 25th week of the 50-week cycle, so it is still relatively young and therefore still bullish. As stated in prior reports, “If we are correct that the 4- and 6.5-year cycle lows occurred August 24, 2015, then we are still in the early stages of those long-term cycles. That means that this 50-week cycle (only the second within the 4-year cycle) is likely to be a bullish “right translation” pattern. Rallies in “right translation cycles” tend to last 25-55 weeks (91% rate of frequency historically). We are still making new highs and it is now the 25th week, thus we look for the high to occur in weeks 25-55, or within the next 30 weeks.

Previously, we also stated, “However, we now note that the Saturn/Uranus trine is coming up December 24 and lasting through November 11, 2017. Historically, that has coincided with the crest of 4-year or greater cycles…. To this, we also add that a cardinal T-square now starts, November 24-September 27, with the greatest coverage February 22-April 21. This pattern often correlates to a sudden sharp decline in world stocks. Whether it starts December 24-January 3, or February 22-April 21 is indeterminable at the moment, but both are possibilities.” We are now in December, the beginning of the Saturn/Uranus trine central time band when a long-term high is due. However, it can be anytime by November 2017. The last time this occurred was July 1972-May 1973, and the all-time high at the time formed right in the middle of this aspect, in January 1973. From there, DJIA dropped 46% over the next 23 months. We also note the special report on the Jupiter/Uranus opposition sent out Dec 15, which identifies December 8-January 11 (and especially Dec 19-January 4) as the most probable time for a major reversal in this primary cycle.

The Primary Cycle and Geocosmics:

December 19 starts the 7th week of a new 13-21 week primary cycle, following the 17,883 low of November 4. Prices rose to a new all-time of 19,966 on Tuesday, Dec 13, which was in the Dec 11 CRD period. That could be a major cycle crest. If so, we look for a 5-7 week major cycle trough this week. That trough may be modest (perhaps only to the 14-day moving average), for the Jupiter/Uranus opposition still favors the idea of another new high – perhaps a primary or half-primary cycle crest – December 19 through January 4.

Last week’s report stated, “So far, the market is rallying strongly into this reversal zone. It is further emphasized with transiting Sun making a translation to the forthcoming Saturn/Uranus trine, December 9-12. So, geocosmics indicate a turn here that may be sharp but brief, but we also acknowledge that market is very, very strong and bullish. Perhaps the Fed announcement of a rate hike this week (Dec 13-14, full Moon) will bring about the decline indicated by geocosmics.” It did correlate with the high so far on Tuesday, December 13. But so far, the decline has been quite benign. It may or may not be over, but if not, it is due to end this week.

We also note that Mercury turns retrograde now, Dec 19-Jan 8. This is always a tricky time to trade, as support and resistance zones are often violated, or failed to even be entered. Plus, with the Jupiter/Uranus coming up Dec 26 and Uranus changing directions Dec 29, it will be more challenging than usual to trade on the basis of price objectives. All of the geocosmics indicate sudden and unexpected and even contradictory news and economic reports, creating sudden and possibly sharp but short-lived price swings. Of importance, could be the midpoint of December 29, which is also the day Uranus ends its retrograde and turns direct. Sometimes stock prices fall very hard into that period, especially if a crest forms close to the retrograde Mercury date (Dec 19).

In any event, it is my view that the Jupiter/Uranus opposition is pulling prices up to a new high, but this “blow-off” will end by January 11, and most likely any time in the next two weeks. That high could be a primary or a half-primary cycle crest. I would like to see this market get higher into the Venus/Jupiter trine on December 25, and then start its retreat. If it is to be a half-primary, then the decline could also end after only 3-8 days of sharp declines, costing the DJIA as much as 1000 points that quickly.

Technicals, Chart Patterns, and Price Targets:

Last week’s new all-time high and close at 19,966 exceeded a price target given before as 19,488 +/- 286. We also stated, “A 50-week cycle crest could be higher, up to 19,860 +/- 530 and 19,872 +/- 522. Notice how much resistance is developing between about 19,500-20,000.” We are in the overlap zone now, up to 20,390.

If last week’s high was a major cycle crest, then a corrective decline to a major cycle trough is due to end this week. A normal corrective decline would be to 18,925 +/- 246. However, this is only the first phase of a new primary cycle, and therefore it may only test the 14-day moving average, which is now at 19,513 and rising above 55 points/day. If it breaks, we do not expect it to get to the 42-day MA (18,837 and rising 41 points/day). An ideal target would be near to the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of 19,170.

There is a chance that last week’s high was a half-primary cycle crest. If so, the decline would last beyond this week, and prices would test the 42-day moving average. But my bias is that this decline will end soon, and there will be another rally to new highs in the next two weeks, up to 20,000-20,530.

The one concern about a new high is that stochastic indicator has formed a double looping pattern well above 90%. If it starts to fall below 71%, the jig may be up. However, as long as it remains above 71%, there is a chance of a new high with a lower stochastic reading, and another “loop,” which would be a better sign of a top. That could all happen in the next two weeks (before Jan 4, or at latest, Jan 11).

Lunar cycles show Friday’s high might be a top leading to reversal down into next Friday’s solar/lunar combination pointing to a low.

Lunar cycles for the next two weeks are as follows: Anything above 113 means there is a higher than expected probability of a reversal from an isolated high or low. The more *, the more likely a reversal. The more #, the less likely a reversal:

Dec 16 120.5* (more often a low)

Dec 19-20 57.9##

Dec 21-22 103.3

Dec 23 119.1*

Dec 26-27 93.3

Dec 28-30 107.3

Strategy: Position traders are flat and may stand aside while Mercury is retrograde.

Aggressive traders are flat and may go long at 19,150 +/- 50 with a stop-loss on a close below 18,450. You may also sell short at 20,250 +/- 50 with a stop-loss on a close above 20,550.

ESH (Mar S&P e-mini): We now switch to March contract. Last week’s new all-time high and close was neutral. The close was also above the weekly trend indicator point (TIP) for the 6th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run up.

The weekly TIP is now 2225.50. It will be downgraded back to neutral if this week’s close is below there.

Weekly support is 2240.25-2241.25. A close below this range would be bearish, whereas a trade below and a close back above is a bullish trigger.

Weekly resistance is 2270.25-2271.75.

A new bullish crossover zone just formed at 2206.75-2219.25. Others remain in effect in the nearby contract at 1661.25-1663, 1405.50-1418, 1381.75-1382.75, 1263-1263.25, 1184.25-1196.75, 889.55-902.40, and 791.10-791.25.

Price closed above a bearish crossover zone recently at 2105.75-2107.50. That is now support.

December 19 starts the 6th week of a newer 15-23 week primary cycle following the 2028.50 low on the evening of the election (shown as pre-market for November 9). The price objective for the crest of a new primary cycle remains 2240.50 +/- 31.75, and 2260 +/- 19. The new all-time high of December 13 was at the upper end of these ranges, at 2273 and in a 1-star CRD.

Here too we are looking for a major cycle crest, followed by a 1-2 week decline into a 5-8 week major cycle trough. If last week’s new all-time high was a major cycle crest, then a corrective decline could be back to 2148 +/- 29.50. A Fibonacci 38.2% correction from here would be back to 2177.50 area, which could also offer support on a sharp pullback.

It would be normal to see prices fall back to the 15-day MA or slightly below (2211.50, rising 4.5 points/day), but not below the 45-day MA, currently at 2158.50 and rising 1.40/day.

It is possible the market is still rallying higher, to a half-primary cycle crest this week or next. If so, it could reach as high as 2309 +/- 27.75 or 2397.50 +/- 44.

Last week stated, “If it turns down here, it will be from a double looping stochastic pattern as well as a bearish oscillator divergence (new highs in price, but not new highs in stochastics).” That condition remains in effect, and if valid, we could see a drop continue this week, below 2215. However, Mercury is retrograde and this is a holiday seasonal time, and therefore these technical studies may be unreliable.

Strategy: Position traders are flat and may stand aside.

Aggressive traders are also flat and may go long at 2177.50 +/- 10 with a stop-loss on a close below 2140. You may also sell short if DJIA or ESZ take out last week’s high, but not both.

NQH (Mar e-mini NASDAQ): We now switch to March contract. Last week close was neutral but with a bearish bias. The close was also above the weekly trend indicator point (TIP) for the 3rd consecutive week, which means it is upgraded to a trend run up.

This week’s trend indicator point (TIP) is 4840.25. It will be downgraded back to neutral if this week’s close is below there.

Weekly support is 4857.75-4860.75.

Weekly resistance is 4967.75-4970.75.

A bullish crossover zone remains in force at 4410-4418.

Prices previously closed above bearish crossover zone at 4747-4756, 4437-4540.25, 4410-4419, and 4176-4178, so these are all now support zones.

This starts the 6th week of a newer 15-23 week primary cycle following the low of 4558.50 on November 9. Last week stated, “Here, too, a 5-8 week major cycle trough time band is now in effect; it is a one star CRD, and prices are rallying into it. This would suggest a major cycle crest is happening now, and a 1-2 week decline to the major cycle trough is readying.” A new contract high formed on Tuesday, Dec 13, at 4961.75, and prices have started to pull back a little from there, but not enough to confirm a major cycle crest, although there is a case of bearish oscillator divergence now present.

Strategy: Position traders are long with a stop-loss on a close below 4700. Traders were advised, “You may cover 1/3 for first profits now.” So, we had a nice profit on that part of the trade so far. You can take another 1/3 profit position off if prices get to 4950-4975 this week.

Aggressive traders are short, with a stop-loss on a close above 4962. Cover all at 4850 +/- 25 and go long with a stop-loss on close below 4700.

EUC (Euro Cash - The ETF for longs is FXE): Last week’s close was a bullish trigger. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 6th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run down.

This week’s trend indicator point is 1.0592. It will be upgraded to neutral if it closes above there this week.

Weekly support is 1.0294-1.0318. A weekly close below this range is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger.

Weekly resistance is 1.0600-1.0623. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

Prices recently closed below a bullish crossover zone at 1.1034-1.1054, so this now a resistance area.

Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 1.1087-1.1128, 1.2111-1.2135, 1.3071-1.3101, 1.3332-1.3358, 1.4386-1.4409, and 1.5322-1.5458.

This starts the 26th week of the 23-37 week primary cycle off the June 24 Brexit low of 1.0909, which means the trend is down until the primary cycle ends. This also starts the 8th week of the second 12-18 week half-primary cycle phase, following the low of 1.0848 on October 25, a two-star CRD. It may also be the 8th week of the third and final 8-12 week major cycle, in what could become a combination primary cycle pattern. I still like this latter thought the best.

The Euro fell to another new multi-year low last week, down to 1.0368 on Thursday, December 15, after the Fed announcement of a rate hike, and plans for three more next year. However, we are now in the time band when a primary and even longer-term cycle low is due, ideally before January 11. As stated last week, “My view remains that a primary cycle low could form January 1 +/- 2 weeks, and then a sharp rally.” However, under Mercury retrograde and all the Uranus signatures present, picking a price will not be easy. The breakout of a triangle on the weekly chart points to a possibility eventually of .9343 +/- .0279.

Strategy: Position traders are short with a stop-loss on a close above 1.0800 after covering 1/3 for excellent profit so far.

Aggressive traders are also short with a stop-loss on a close above 1.0700, after covering 2/3 for excellent profits so far. You may cover all at 1.0000 +/-.0050 if offered.

Mar Euro (UROH): We now switch to March contract. Weekly support is 1.0325-1.0355. Resistance is 1.0630-1.0660. Weekly TIP is 1.0639. Note TIP is in resistance, which is usually bearish, but if it breaks above, could be sharp rally. The difference between cash and futures is .0031 to futures.

JYC (Dollar/Yen Cash): Last week’s close was bullish again. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 10th time in 11 weeks, which means it remains in a trend run up.

This week’s trend indicator point is 114.95. It will be downgraded back to neutral if this week’s close is below there.

Weekly support is 115.57-116.01. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger.

Weekly resistance is 119.52-119.96. A weekly close above this range is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 108.69-108.70, 94.23-94.88, 84.68-84.79, 76.90-76.97, and 76.22-76.25.

Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 122.31-122.46 and 123.40-123.62. It closed above others recently at 108.99-109.54, 105.76-106.17, and 1.0443-1.0491, so they now act as support.

This starts the 26th week of the 26-40 week primary cycle off the 99.08 low of June 24, and the 12th week of the second 9-14 week major cycle. Thursday’s (Dec 15) high of 118.66 was its highest mark since February 3, and has now exceeded the price target zone for the major cycle crest given before as 113.64 +/- 1.72. Now 120 is the new resistance zone in this new bull market.

As stated before, “We are back on track for my original projection of a long-term Dollar cycle crest in the Dollar, due anytime within 6 months of January 2017. My best guess is within two weeks of January 1, but that could change.” We are in that time band now as well. When Reagan won in 1984, the Dollar topped out in Jan-February 1985.

Strategy: Position traders are flat and may stand aside.

Aggressive traders were stopped out of shorts. Let’s stand aside now with Mercury retrograde, although I am tempted to try to sell again at the 120 area.

Japanese Yen Mar (JYH): We now switch to March contract. Weekly support is 83.60-83.94. Resistance is 86.50-86.84. Weekly TIP is 87.39.

Euro/Yen Spread – Cash: Last week’s close was neutral with a bearish bias. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 8th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run up.

This week’s trend indicator point is 121.56. It will be downgraded back to neutral on a close below there this week.

Weekly support is 121.74-121.94. A weekly close below this range is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger.

Weekly resistance is 124.49-124.69. A weekly close above this range is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

A bullish crossover zone remains in effect at 118.18-118.24. Another was recently broken at 130.85-131.48, so this is now resistance.

A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 125.52-126.20.

This starts the 26th week of the 23-37 week primary cycle off the 109.46 low of June 24. It also starts the 13th week of the second 12-18 week half-primary cycle of the 112.04 low of September 21. A crest is still due at any time, to be followed by a 2-8 week decline to the primary cycle bottom. It formed a new cycle high on Dec 15 at 124.09 after the Fed raise its interest rate.

We will stand aside while Mercury turns retrograde now.

Strategy: Position traders are flat and may stand aside.

Aggressive traders are short with a stop-loss on a close above 124.50. Cover at 117.00 +/- .50 if offered.

Swiss Franc Mar (SFH) (the ETF for longs is FXF): We now switch to March contract. Last week’s close was bearish. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 10th time in 11 weeks, which means it remains in a trend run down.

This week’s trend indicator point (TIP) .9898. It will be upgraded back to neutral if prices close above there this week. We expected that to happen last week and it didn’t probably due to the Fed rate hike.

Weekly support is .9660-.9681. A close below is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger.

Weekly resistance is .9911-.9932. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

Prices closed below bullish crossover zones at .9868-.9917 and 1.0181-1.0207, so these are now resistance.

A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 1.0406-1.0461.

This starts the 29th week of an older primary cycle, or the 21st week of a younger 23-27 week primary cycle following the low of 1.0135 on June 27. It fell to another new 9-month low on Thursday, Dec 15, at .9723. That low was also in the 11th week of the 8-12 week time band for a major cycle trough. This cycle suggests a low is due this week or next. Both the Swiss Franc and Euro cash made new lows, so still no case of intermarket bullish divergence. However, this is a very important CRD coming up (actually, anywhere between Dec 22-Jan 5) and prices are falling, so a low could form soon with intermarket bullish divergence, in which one of these currencies make a low but not the other. We still prefer to see this December 26-Jan 3 +/- 3 trading days.

Strategy: Position traders are flat and will stand aside during Mercury retrograde.

Aggressive traders were stopped out of longs on a close below weekly support. You may buy again on a case of intermarket bullish divergence to the Euro cash, where one takes out the prior week’s low but the other does not.

British Pound Cash (GBPUSD) by MMTA Graduate Ulric Aspegrén: Last week’s close at 1.2487 was mostly bearish as it closed into the support. The close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 1st week after having been above for three weeks. Thus, the weekly trend indicator point remains in a neutral status.

This week’s trend indicator point is 1.2591. It will be downgraded to bearish if the next two weeks’ closes are down.

Weekly support is 1.2310 -1.2330. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger.

Weekly resistance is 1.2665-1.2685. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

The bullish crossover zones (support) remain in effect at 1.0880-1.1320; 1.0725-1.0802.

The bearish crossover zones (resistance) remain in effect at 1.3172-1.3184; 1.1.4849-1.4859; 1.5284-1.5315; 1.6130-1.6182; 1.6506-1.6553; 1.6913-1.6921; 1.8110-1.8247; 1.9510-1.9662.

Although we could be in the 42nd week an old 35-week primary cycle, it seems now much more probable that this week starts instead the 111h week of a new bearish primary cycle, off the October 7 low at 1.1450.

Last week stated: “As the December 6 high manifested in the 9th week of the primary cycle and since the 87-day MA resistance held, it is possible that the high was the bearish primary cycle crest.” With the 87-day moving average (1.2696) above the faster 29-day MA (1.2518) together with a daily price that has now closed twice below the 29-day MA, confirms that the primary cycle crest was made on December 6 at 1.2774. The primary cycle is now in a bearish trend. The 15-day stochastics are pointing downwards and are closing in on the 20%-level.

Hence, we should now descend to establish a 12-week major cycle low at 1.164-1.214 or even 1.046-1.109. We have a bullish crossover zone at 1.0880-1.1320, which will act as support. An overlap gives 1.088-1.109 in the case, the price drops below the first target.

The bottoming window is active from now until February 3. We have a strong CRD on Dec 26-Jan 3, which is already active from December 21.

Strategy: Position traders: be ready to go long at the upcoming 12-week major cycle low. The price target spans for the coming 12-week cycle low are 1.164-1.214 and 1.088-1.109. Track the reversal period with the Dec 26-Jan 3 CRD, already active this week from December 21. Place your stop-loss below the newly formed low.

Please note, that you might want to stay on the sidelines as Mercury is retrograde from December 19 to January 9. This could create large daily price swings.

Aggressive traders: Should be short from previous recommendation. For protection, move your stop-loss down to 1.2695, just above the weekly resistance. The price targets are 1.164-1.214 and 1.088-1.109. Track the reversal as explained for the position traders. Exit 1/3 in each of these price ranges if offered. Prepare to exit all and go long once the 12-week major cycle low is in.

TYH (Mar T-Notes): Last week’s close was bearish. The close was also below the weekly TIP for the 6th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run down.

This week’s trend indicator point is 124/00. It will be upgraded to neutral if it closes above there this week.

Weekly support is 121/27-122/01.5. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger.

Weekly resistance is 123/26-124/00.5. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

Bullish crossover zones remain in effect in the nearby contract at 121/24-121/25, 120/12-120/17, 118/02-118/12, and 117/00-117/03. It closed below another last week at 123/14-123/19 and others previously at 126/12.5-126/17 and 129/30-130/01, so these are now resistance.

Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 129/04-129/22.5 and 130/26-130/27.

This starts the 13th week of newer 15-21 week primary cycle off the low of 129/26 on Sep 13. It also starts the 3rd week of the second 8-11 week half-primary cycle, and possibly the 3rd week of the third 4-7 week major cycle phase off the 123/19 low on Dec 1, in the 5th week. Last week stated, “However, with the Fed due to hike its short-term rates higher this week, there is reason to think prices could fall lower this week to complete that major cycle trough.” It appears prices are headed lower to a primary cycle trough, due in 2-8 weeks. It is oversold, and stochastics can allow for a blip up at any time, especially with the three-star CRD coming up, but it may be short-lived.

Longer-term, anything below 122 strongly suggests that the bull market is over, the 18year cycle crest has been completed, and treasuries will be bearish for 2-5 years.

Strategy: Position traders are short with a stop-loss on a close above 130 after covering the first 1/3 for profits the prior week. You may cover another 1/3 if prices fall to 122/00-122/16.

Aggressive traders were stopped out of longs on the close below 122/30 or 123/19, depending on your risk allowance. Stand aside this week.

SF (Jan Soybeans): We will switch to March contract next week. Last week’s close was neutral with a bullish bias. The close was also above the weekly trend indicator point for the 4th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run up.

The weekly TIP is 1037-1/2. It will be downgraded to neutral if this week’s close is below there.

Weekly support is 1021 - 1022-1/4. A weekly close below this range is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger.

Weekly resistance is 1050 – 1057-1/4. A weekly close above this range is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 1002-1021 and 933-3/4 – 942-1/4 in the nearby contract.

This starts the 12th week of the 15-21 week primary cycle off the 940-1/2 low of September 27. It also starts the 5th week of the second 5-7 week major cycle phase. Last week stated, “Either we see a half-primary cycle low this week, probably down to 1005 or lower (45-day moving average), or we continue lower into the next 3 weeks for a major cycle trough.” It looks more like a major cycle trough is trying to form in the next 15 sessions, maybe this week, or possibly an early primary cycle (before 15th week).

Last week’s report also stated, “But last week’s (Nov 28) high at 1061-3/4 was with a much lower stochastic reading than the high of the prior week, so it could come down in any event now. (That was a CRD period). The price target would be 959-1009. A move above 1065 will be bullish at this point.” It still looks bearish from that high, especially if it now closes below 1018. However, a close above 1038 would begin to look positive again, and above 1052 is bullish.

Strategy: Position traders are flat and may stand aside.

Aggressive traders were short and advised to “… Cover all at 1010 +/- 10 and go long with a stop-loss on a close below 985.” We got that and will stay with it, with the same stop-loss or on above below 1000, depending on your risk allowance.

CL (Crude Oil nearby contract): Last week’s close was mixed. The close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 4th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run up.

The weekly trend indicator point is now at 50.91. It will be if downgraded back to neutral if prices close below there this week.

Weekly support is 49.62-49.73. A weekly close below this range is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger.

Weekly resistance is 54.18-54.29. A weekly close above this range is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 61.92-63.13, 71.72-74.54 and 107.56-112.19.

This starts the 20th week of an older 15-23 week primary cycle off the 39.19 low of Aug 3, one day past our Aug 2 CRD, or the 5th week of a newer one off the 42.20 low of Nov 14. It looks more like a newer cycle, but the structure could still be that of an older one too especially if last week was a primary cycle crest and crude now falls for the next 2-3 weeks, into the Jupiter/Uranus opposition of Dec 26. If instead it rallies into that aspect (say Dec 23-30), it may be a major, half- or full primary cycle crest. In that case, crude oil should exceed 55.00.

Last week’s new multi month high was 54.51, which fell into our price target zone of 54.94 +/- 1.86. If this is a newer primary cycle, then that could be the first major cycle crest. In that case, a 1-3 week corrective decline could take prices down to 48.35 +/- 1.45. We need to watch this area too as possible buy point from Dec 20-30. If last week was a primary cycle crest of an older primary cycle, then prices will drop more sharply for 2-3 weeks, with a price target of 46.85 +/- 1.81. We would buy that too.

Longer-term, as stated before, “Since I believe the long-term low was completed back in February at 26.05, during the Saturn/Neptune square. I remain bullish. It also hit the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders formation, so resistance has been found. Once it closes above there, look for 65-70.”

Strategy: Position traders are flat and may look to buy at 46.50 +/- .50 with a stop-loss on a close below 42.20.

Aggressive traders are short, with a stop-loss on a close above 52.50. Cover 1/3 at 49.50 +/- .25. Cover all and go long at 46.50 +/- .50, with a stop-loss on a close below 44.00.

GCG (Feb Gold): Last week’s close was bearish. And the close was below the TIP for the 6th consecutive week, and it made another new cycle low, which means it remains in a trend run down.

This week’s trend indicator point is 1164.40. It will be upgraded back to neutral if prices close above there this week.

Weekly support is 1115.00-1118.10. A weekly close below this range will be bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger.

Weekly resistance is 1158.60-1161.80. A weekly close above this range is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 1132.20-1144.30 (it closed there), 1070.50-1078.10 and 1014.80-1018.10 from several years ago.

Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 1298.30-1307.90, 1404.70-1418.20 and 1535-1547. It closed above another some time ago at 1117.40-1126.80, so that is now a support zone.

Trend studies:

The basic trend indicator study is bearish as prices fell to 1124.30, continued to its lowest level in 10 months again.

The weekly moving average trend indicator study, however, remains neutral. Feb Gold closed the week at 1136.80, which was down 4.60 from the prior week. Gold closed below both the 25-week moving average (1283.30) and the 37-week MA (1276.90), with the shorter MA still above the longer one. If prices rally back above 1283.30, it will be upgraded back to bullish. If the 25-week MA moves below the 37-week with prices remaining below each, it will be downgraded to bearish. That distance is now narrowing about 3.00/week.

The daily moving average study remains bearish. The Feb Gold contract close was below both the 15-day MA (1168), and the 45-day MA (1227.40), and the 15-day MA continues below the 45-day MA, which makes it bearish. A close above 1227.40 will upgrade it back to neutral.

Leading Indicators (cycles and geocosmics):

December 19 starts the 11th week of the 15-21 week primary cycle after the October 7 low of 1243.20. It is now entering a time band where a contracted 11-14 week primary cycle could form, and if so, it would complete the 11-month cycle low off the December low of 2015 at 1045.40. Last week stated, “If it happens that this becomes a contracted primary cycle and bottoms in 1-4 weeks, then that would become a very bullish pattern possibility.”

Last week also stated, “The more ‘normal’ cycle labeling would be that an 8-11 week half-primary bottom is occurring now. A sharp 3-13 day rally could start from this low, which is this week or next, but then another decline to lower levels would follow into the 15-21 week interval for a “normal” primary bottom in a bear market. We are going to make our strategy based on an 11-14 week primary cycle low coming up in the next 1-4 weeks, and very possibly in our Dec 26-Jan 3 three-star CRD zone.”

In the event that last week was a half-primary cycle trough, and this is to be a normal primary cycle, then we would see a sharp 3-13 rally start here, probably ending with a half-primary cycle crest in the December 21-January 5 period, followed by another multiweek decline to new lows around the time of Venus retrograde March 4 +/- 1 week. However, if this is going to be a contracted primary cycle, prices will surely take out last week’s low, and instead would look for the final primary and 50-week bottom December 19-January 13.

Technicals, chart patterns, and price targets:

Stochastics are very oversold on the weekly chart (K = 4.80% and below D at 5.06%), which means an important longer-term cycle low is probably unfolding, which is what I think in any event. The daily chart is also oversold and exhibiting a possible case of bullish oscillator divergence. As Gold made a new cycle low on Thursday, Dec 15, stochastics did not. On the other hand, they rose only to the 20% level. They need to get above 25% with K widening its distance above D (currently K is 18.47% and D is 18.06%. Last week asked, “If this decline can end quickly, it would be a positive. But how low? We have an extension of a former chart line (trendline) coming in around 1070-1080 now.”

The bullish divergence to Silver is also falling apart, but not quite crumbled. Silver broke below its its 1615 low in the nearby contract made right on our Nov 25 three-star CRD, it is still holding above its 1583 low of June 1 (it fell to 1592.50). As long as that level holds, a reversal and a new bull market thrust could still begin, perhaps in the Dec 26-Jan 3 reversal zone, if not right here.

The biggest obstacle to a Gold rally and a new bull run is the U.S. Dollar. With the Fed stating it intends to raise rates three times next year, the fundamental case for Gold is not promising. Higher rates mean a stronger dollar, and puts pressure on Gold. How can the Fed raise rates without the Dollar going higher? Perhaps by global coordinate intervention, as the strong dollar is starting to create serious problems for debt laden nations – which is almost everyone. This is the consequence of the Fed’s easy money policy over the prior 8 years. This is what being between a rock and hard place is beginning to look like, perhaps the turmoil itself will give support to Gold, which tends to thrive better when the world is in turmoil. For now, the sentiment for Gold keeps declining – which also becomes a bullish factor eventually and causes sharp short-covering counter trend rallies.

The solar/lunar cycles look very volatile this week. Every day has a high weighted value score correlating with reversals.

The following solar/lunar days are from our studies published in The Gold Book: Solar-Lunar Reversal Keys for Trading Gold. (These are the lunar cycles for the next two weeks, per these initial studies). These numbers represent potential for reversal, where anything above 114 has a high probability of an isolated top or bottom to trade opposite of, for a 3% reversal. * represents a strong reversal possibility. The more * the stronger it is. # represents a low likelihood for a reversal. The more #, the less likely a reversal or big range day.

The solar-lunar cycles for Gold for the next few days are as follows:

Reversal 4% Reversal 3% Big Range Day

Dec 19-20 141.7** 94.5 103.5

Dec 21-22 147.6** 126.5* 48.0###

Dec 23 129.1* 124.5* 168.1***

Dec 26-27 107.6 83.0 84.5 (tends towards a low)

Dec 28-30 84.8 68.1# 151.7**

Strategy: Position traders are long with a stop-loss on a close below 1124 if Silver also trades below 1583.

Aggressive traders were stopped out of longs on Gold. Look to buy again at 1075 +/- 5 with a stop-loss on close below 1045.

GLD (the SPDR ETF for Gold): Weekly support is 106-106.33. Resistance is 110.11-110.44. Weekly TIP is 110.65.

Position traders were stopped out of longs on the close below 109. Stand aside now.

Aggressive traders were also stopped out and may buy again at 102 +/- .50 with a stop-loss on a close below 100.

SIH (Mar Silver): Last week’s close was very bearish and follows the prior week’s bearish trigger, which is a bearish sequence. The close was also below the weekly trend indicator point for the 5th time in 6 weeks, which means it is downgraded back to a trend run down.

The weekly trend indicator point is now at 1668.50. It will be upgraded back to neutral if closes above there this week. We expect that to happen in the next 4 weeks.

Weekly support is 1546-1561.50. A weekly close below this range is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger.

Weekly resistance is 1682-1698. A weekly close above this range is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 1553-1574, 1453-1460, and 1096-1103.

Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 1871-1887, 3072-3112, 3665-3974 and 4337-4533.

This starts the 11th week of a newer primary cycle off the 1711.50 low of October 7. A 7-11 week half-primary cycle trough time band is on effect this week and now due. If it happened last Thursday at 1592.50, we could see a sharp 3-13 day rally I to the three-star CRD coming up. Or, it might bottom also in the 11-14 week time band, perhaps with a new case of intermarket bullish divergence with Gold. We should be looking for this signal in the next 1-3 weeks.

Like Gold, Silver is making new multi-month lows, although only since June, whereas Gold’s low now goes back to February 2016. If this continues, we may have to wait for intermarket bullish divergence going back to December 2015 when Gold as at 1045.40 and Silver 1362.

Strategy: Position traders are long with a stop loss on a close below 1583, assuming Gold also trades below 1124.

Aggressive traders were stopped out of remaining longs after taking 1/3 profits earlier. You may buy again if Gold or Silver take out last week’s low, but not both.

Lunar cycles for this week (from The Sun, Moon, and Silver Market: Secrets of a Silver Trader). First numbers represent potential for reversal, where anything above 120 has a high probability of an isolated top or bottom to trade opposite of, and the second column represents “Big Range Day” potentials in which Silver could have a range of at least 2% (probably more these days) – good for day trading. * represents a strong reversal or big range day. The more * the stronger it is. # represents a low likelihood for a reversal or big range day. The more #, the less likely a reversal or big range day.

The solar-lunar cycles for the next few days are as follows:

Reversal Big Range

Dec 19-20 117.1* 32.3#

Dec 21-22 87.9# 156.1*

Dec 23 100.1 0.00###

Dec 26-27 65.0## 115.5

Dec 28-30 70.3# 187.3***

SLV (I-Silver Trust): Weekly support is 14.64-14.78. Resistance is 15.90-16.05. Weekly TIP is 15.76.

Position traders are long with a stop-loss on a close below 15.00.

Aggressive traders are the same as position traders after covering 1/3 profit position earlier.

NOTE 1: The Forecast 2017 Book is done! And what a year it is going to be! The book is on schedule for printing completion and delivery by December 15, as planned. Written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, this annual Forecast Book is one of the most unique, affordable ($55.00), and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, the annual Forecast book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. This book has an impressive history of insightful accuracy into world economic and financial market conditions that you will not want to miss! Last year’s printed edition sold out within three weeks of its release, and this one might too, since we have a new president, and no one knows what to expect (but astrology and cycle studies yield most interesting insights). For further information, go to and click the banner (or click Products – Books). ORDER NOW AND MAKE SURE YOU RESERVE YOUR COPY BEFORE THEY SELL OUT!!! There will not be an additional printing once this printing runs out.

For more information, visit or call 1-800-662-3349 or 1-248-626-3034.

NOTE 2: We are planning on doing a Forecast 2017 webinar on Sunday, January 29. The time will be announced shortly. Participation to the live event will be limited, as always, to 100 people. All webinars have sold out in the past, so please watch for ordering details shortly and register early to make sure you have a place reserved in the live webinar event.

Using this information properly: Support may represent favorable risk/reward places to buy if the trend is up. If prices trade below support, then have a close back above, it is considered a bullish “trigger”, and oftentimes represents a good buy signal. Resistance may represent favorable risk/reward places to go short if the trend is down. If prices trade above it, then have a weekly close back below, it is considered a bearish “trigger, and oftentimes a good sell signal.

MMA comments and trade recommendations are primarily for traders of commodity and futures contracts. They are provided mainly with “speculators” in mind. By its very nature, “speculation” means “willing to take risk of loss.” Speculators” must be willing to accept the fact that they are going to have several losses, many more than say “investors.” That is why they are “speculators.” Speculators are typically right about 50% of the time, +/- 10%. The way “speculators” become profitable is not so much by high percentage of winning trades, but by controlling amount of loss on any given trade, so the average trade on winners is considerably more than the average trade on losing trades. MMA’s comments can be of value to both speculators and investors. MMA’s trade recommendations will be of potential value only to speculators. Those who take these trades need to be willing to adjust stop-losses, and even the trade itself, as the week unfolds, and dependent upon technical factors that will arise with each day’s trading. There is no guarantee as to future accuracy or profitability. Each trader and reader trades at his or her own risk, and neither the author nor publisher assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s financial or commodity markets decisions. Futures or options trading are considered high risk.

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