ETFs: A roadmap to growth

The global ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) industry continues to experience rapid change, presenting both opportunities and challenges. We highlighted a number of key themes in our successful publication called ` ETF 2020: Preparing for a new horizon', including global growth, regulations, distribution channels, technology and investor education. Building upon these ETF 2020 themes, throughout this paper, we highlight insights gained from our latest ETF survey as well as PwC perspectives on key developments which will help drive further ETF growth, including products, markets and distribution. Successful ETF firms will capitalise on these opportunities, address challenges and differentiate themselves from increasingly crowded markets across North America, Europe and Asia.

ETFs: A roadmap to growth

etfroadmap

3 PwC ETFs: A roadmap to growth

Contents

Executive summary

04

Growth

06

Distribution trends

12

Products

14

Regulations

16

Technology

17

Globalisation

18

North American roadmap:

20

Leading the way

European roadmap:

24

A convergence of opportunity?

Asian roadmap:

28

Pure potential

Conclusion

32

Appendix:

33

Global ETF Growth Model methodology

Contacts

34

4 PwC ETFs: A roadmap to growth

Executive summary

We are pleased to share the perspectives we have gained in our 2nd Annual Global Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) survey entitled "ETFs: A roadmap to growth". ETFs continue to dominate flows, setting a record US$351 billion in global flows for 2015.1 Regional ETF record flows were achieved in Europe and Canada, while the US and Asia regions approached nearrecord flows in 2015.2 Based on a variety of factors outlined in this publication, the survey participants expect even more ETF growth across North America, Europe and Asia, with global ETF assets expected to exceed US$7 trillion by 2021. Based on our Global ETF Growth Model, we agree with survey participants' expectations.

About the survey

PwC surveyed executives from approximately 60 firms around the world in 2015 using a combination of structured questionnaires and in-depth interviews. More than 70% of the participants were ETF managers or sponsors, with the remaining participants divided between asset managers not currently offering ETFs and service providers. Participating firms account for more than 80% of global ETF assets. We express our sincere thanks to those who participated in this survey.

1 BlackRock, "BlackRock Global ETF Landscape: Industry Highlights," December 2015. 2 Ibid.

5 PwC ETFs: A roadmap to growth

We identified a number of themes with respect to ETFs, which we will describe in more detail throughout this paper.

Growth ? The ETF industry has achieved tremendous growth since its inception in 1993. We expect accelerated growth over the next five years, with a focus on new markets, expanding distribution channels and asset classes.

Distribution ? The ETF market has become increasingly crowded, particularly in North America and Europe. Successful firms will likely need to invest in investor education, establish strong distribution channels to gather assets, and differentiate their products in these congested markets.

Products ? Today, the majority of global ETF assets are in passively managed investment products. However, over the past few years there has been an increased focus on smart beta investment products, which are structured around factors other than market capitalisation, such as dividends, earnings, value, momentum, quality and size. Many of the firms that we have spoken with are also evaluating opportunities to launch fixedincome and actively managed ETFs.

Technology ? Advances in technology and data analytics with respect to product creation, markets and distribution have significantly contributed to the growth and innovation of ETFs. The continued digital evolution of the ETF industry will likely transform client relationships and expand distribution capabilities in terms of communications, sales and customisation.

Globalisation ? Many ETF sponsors are seeking to expand their global footprint, which presents both opportunities and challenges. Firms will need to navigate complex regulations and tax laws, as well as establish strong working relationships with local capital markets to expand their ETF product offerings globally.

Regulation ? Given the significant growth and innovation of ETFs, regulators across the globe continue to focus on investor protection, which may slow some of the growth and innovation of ETFs. However, there are also some regulations that may help to foster more ETF growth.

6 PwC ETFs: A roadmap to growth

Growth

The ETF industry has experienced significant growth since its inception in 1993, and 2015 was no exception, with record global flows over US$351 billion.3 Global ETF assets under management (AUM) have grown from US$1,463 billion in December 2010 to US$2,959 billion in December 2015, representing 102% cumulative growth over the last five years.4 Across the globe, we saw a number of new firms, including traditional asset managers, insurance companies and banks, launch ETFs in 2015 and we expect that trend to continue in 2016 and beyond. There was also an uptick in mergers and acquisitions in the ETF space in 2015 as firms sought to acquire assets, talent and distribution capabilities. Most survey participants expect that ETF growth will continue over the next five years, with more than 41% predicting that global ETF AUM will reach at least US$7 trillion by 2021 (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Prediction for Global ETF AUM over the next five years

28%

30%

(41% expect US$7 trillion or

more)

13%

13%

13%

2%

US$5 trillion or less

US$6 trillion

US$7 trillion

US$8 trillion

US$9 trillion US$10 trillion or more

Source: PwC, "2nd Annual Global ETF Survey," 2015, us/etf. Note: Due to rounding, the percentages may not add up to 100%.

3 Ibid. 4 Ibid.

7 PwC ETFs: A roadmap to growth

Regional growth

The North American ETF market dominates in terms of sheer size, but it also continues to have significant momentum. North American firms in the survey predicted ETF AUM to grow to US$5.9 trillion by 2021, implying 23% cumulative annual growth (see Figure 2). The European ETF market, while smaller relative to North America, is expected to grow by 27% annually, reaching US$1.6 trillion of AUM by 2021. Asia is currently the smallest market for ETFs. However, it appears poised for growth, particularly as markets become more integrated and regulations are further enhanced and streamlined to facilitate not only innovative products but also access to ETFs. Asian firms in the survey predict assets will reach US$560 billion by 2021, corresponding to an 18% compound annual growth over the next five years.

Asian firms in the survey predict assets will reach US$560 billion by 2021, corresponding to an 18% compound annual growth over the next five years.

Figure 2: Average predicted ETF assets in regional markets in 2021

North America

Europe

Asia

Assets in 2015 Assets in 2021 % cumulative growth

% CAGR

US$2.1 trillion US$5.9 trillion 181%

23%

US$488 billion US$1.6 trillion 228%

27%

US$249 billion US$560 billion 125%

18%

Source: PwC analysis based on: 1 monthly newsletter, December 2015, accessed March 24, 2016, . 2 Source: PwC, "2nd Annual Global ETF Survey," 2015, us/etf.

8 PwC ETFs: A roadmap to growth

Not surprisingly, better investor education is universally considered a key to further ETF growth in all regions.

Growth accelerators

New and improved distribution channels are seen across all regions as potential growth accelerators (see Figure 3). In Europe, lower distribution costs are also a key part of the puzzle. Not surprisingly, better investor education is universally considered a key to further ETF growth in all regions. In Asia, the various stock connect programmes to facilitate trading between Asian countries are widely seen as a factor that is likely to spur further asset growth. Firms in Europe and Asia also see fund passporting, which would provide another area of growth for expanding ETFs, whereas North American firms do not view this area as having significant growth opportunities. This is somewhat surprising, as many of the North American firms we have spoken with expect to expand globally over the next few years.

Potential differentiators in increasingly crowded markets

Corporate brand was deemed to be the most important factor in raising assets, with 60% of survey participants rating it very important; this is an increase from 34% in the prior year (see Figure 4).

In addition, institutional channels, differentiated investment strategy and investment track record are each considered to be very important by approximately 40% of survey participants.

Conversely, lower costs, proprietary distribution channels and tax efficiency are considered to be slightly less important in these crowded markets. It is somewhat surprising to us that only 35% of firms believe that lower costs are a potential differentiator in these increasingly crowded ETF markets, as we continue to observe downward fee trends, particularly with passively managed ETFs.

Figure 3: ETF growth accelerators by regional market

% of firms 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

Availability of new distribution

platforms

Better investor education

Lower distribution

costs

Stock connect programme

n North America n Europe n Asia

Source: PwC, "2nd Annual Global ETF Survey," 2015, us/etf. Note: Percent of respondents that rate each area as likely to accelerate the growth of ETFs.

Fund passporting

Lower cost for service providers

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