August 2022 - National Retail Federation

August 2022

in partnership with the

August 2022

Contents

Overview

Editorial- Stalled Consumer Spending is

Leading to Decreased Import Growth

01 Editorial

02 Executive Summary

03 Global Economic Overview

04 North America Economic Overview

05 Global Port Tracker Overview

Coast Activity

06 West Coast Port Activity

07 East Coast Port Activity

Port Activity

08 Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach

09 Port of Oakland

10 NW Seaport Alliance (Tacoma and Seattle)

11 Port of Vancouver

12 Port of Prince Rupert

13 Port of Montreal

14 Ports of New York and New Jersey

15 Port of Virginia

16 Port of Charleston

17 Port of Savannah

18 Port of Jacksonville

Now that we¡¯re in the second half of the year, the heady days of growth in

imports are quickly receding. The outlook is for a decline in volumes

compared with 2021 over the next few months, and the decline is expected

to deepen in 2023.

Does this mean a recession is here or coming? Not immediately. We have just

experienced two quarters of year-over-year contraction in gross domestic

product, but even that is not a sure-fire indicator of recession. Consumers

continued to spend in the first half of the year, and we saw continued

strength in employment numbers as an additional 528,000 jobs were created

in July and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent, matching the 50-year

low seen just before the pandemic. Other indicators, however, are showing

signs of weakness as inflation climbs. And with the Federal Reserve raising

interest rates at an unprecedented speed, borrowing money to finance

anything from cars to homes will become very expensive. The Fed¡¯s policy is

focused on reducing inflation, but there is a risk that its actions might bring a

recession if the central bank goes too far too fast. Growth in overall consumer

spending ¨C beyond just retail sales ¨C has already stalled.

The latest report from the Commerce Department showed that retail sales as

defined by NRF ¨C excluding automobile dealers gasoline stations and

restaurants to focus on core retail ¨C were up 0.6 percent in June and up 5.8

percent year-on-year while overall retail sales were up 1 percent monthly and

8.4 percent year over year. NRF says sales were up 7 percent for the first half

of the year and still expects retail sales for the full year to increase between

6 percent and 8 percent over 2021. Nonetheless, consumers are buying

fewer discretionary goods and returning more. In 2021, shoppers returned an

average of 16.6 percent of their purchases, up from 10.6 percent in 2020, and

the number is expected to be higher this year.

As inflation rises, consumers are anticipating further increases in the cost of

living for necessities, resulting in less discretionary spending, which will

impact the volume of imports. Our forecast projects a downward trend in

imports from August through the first half of 2023. Carriers are also reporting

less-than-full ships despite high income in the first half of this year.

19 Port Everglades

20 Port Miami

21 Port Houston

22 Spot Container Rates/Port of Baltimore

23 Ports of Boston/New Orleans

Europe is faring worse as the European Union economies, particularly

Germany¡¯s, are hit by reduced supplies of Russian gas.

The takeaway is that harder times are ahead, at least until mid-2023.

Data

-Ben Hackett

24 Year to Date Import Totals

25 Year to Date Export Totals

26 Raw Monthly Data

27 How to Read the Tables and Charts

00



Ben Hackett | +1.202.558.5292 | ben@ |

Jon Gold | +1.202.626.8193 | goldj@|

Wight Hotchkiss | +1.206.695.4200 | dwight.hotchkiss@|

GPT: North American Trade Outlook, August 2022

Executive Summary

?

The total volume of loaded imports at

the tracked ports decreased by

148,000 TEUs between May and June

to 2.54 million TEUs, a record for the

month of June. This represents a 5.5

percent slide from May and equates

to a 6.1 percent gain year-on-year.

The year-to-date volume imported

through the first six months of 2022

totals 15.17 million TEUs for a 5.0

percent gain versus the same point of

2021. Loaded imports in 2022 are

projected to increase by 2.1 percent

over 2021 with a total of 29.7 million

TEUs.

?

The combined loaded import volume

at the monitored West Coast ports

decreased by 87,000 TEUs between

May and June, which equates to a 6.4

percent slide. The total loaded import

volume was 1.28 million TEUs, a

record for the month of June and a 4.0 percent gain

over the same month of last year. The year-to-date

volume imported through the first six months of

2022 totals 7.67 million TEUs for a 0.1 percent dip

versus 2021. No port on the coast posted growth

over May, although Vancouver and Prince Rupert

were level. Year-on-year gains were reported at Long

Beach, Oakland, Vancouver, and Prince Rupert.

Loaded imports in 2022 are projected to decrease by

0.6 percent from 2021 with a total of 15.0 million

TEUs.

?

The combined loaded import volume at the primary

monitored East Coast ports decreased by 59,000

TEUs between May and June, which equates to a 5.1

percent slide. The loaded import volume of 1.10

million TEUs equates to a 7.6 percent gain over the

same month of 2021 and is a high for the month

Change in Import Volume, June 2022 versus:

of June. The year-to-date volume imported

through the first six months of 2022 totals 6.59

million TEUs for a 9.3 percent increase year-onyear. Growth over May was recorded only at the

ports of New York/New Jersey and Jacksonville.

Year-on-year growth was recorded at every port

except Charleston and Miami, with double-digit

percentage increases at New York/New Jersey

and Port Everglades. Loaded imports in 2022 are

projected to increase by 4.4 percent over 2021 with

a total of 12.9 million TEUs.

?

Loaded imports at Houston decreased by 0.6 percent

in June (or 1,000 TEUs) to 158,000 TEUs. This equates

to a 13.1 percent jump year-on-year and is a record

for the month of June. Loaded imports in 2022 are

projected to increase by 10.4 percent over 2021 with

a total of 1.8 million TEUs.

2

GPT: North American Trade Outlook, August 2022

Global Economic Overview

?

?

?

Capacity of Inactive Fleet (TEU) and Share of Total Cellular Fleet (%)

Alphaliner reported that, as of

July 4th, the idle fleet of

containerships with a capacity of

500 TEU and greater stood at

281,147 TEUs spread across 72

vessels (versus 240,806 TEUs and

58 vessels at about the same

point in June). There were 13 idle

vessels with a capacity greater

than 7,500 TEUs (compared to 10

vessels a month earlier). The idle

fleet accounts for 1.1 per cent of

the total available capacity (up

from 1.0 percent at about the

same point last month). A

Chart courtesy of Alphaliner

further 162 vessels with a

combined capacity of 623,925

increased by 0.4 percent between May and June,

TEUs were listed as being in a shipyard for routine

which equates to a 5.9 percent decrease year-onmaintenance, repairs, retrofits, etc., including 30

year. The value of retail sales increased by 1.3

vessels with a capacity of at least 7,500 TEUs).

percent month-on-month which equated to a 1.7

percent gain year-on-year. The ONS noted that the

The International Monetary Fund decreased its

proportion of retail sales online fell to 25.3 percent

baseline forecast for global growth in July. The World

in June, its lowest proportion since March 2020¡¯s

Economic Outlook now projects a gain of 3.2 percent

22.8 percent and down from a peak of 37.4 percent

in 2022 (versus 3.6 percent in the April outlook) and

in February 2021.

a 2.9 percent increase in 2023. The IMF reduced its

Data courtesy of Alphaliner

outlook for the US (to 2.3 percent growth in 2022 and

? Eurostat reported that the volume of retail sales for

1.0 percent growth in 2023), Canada (to 3.4 percent

non-food products (except automotive fuel) in the

growth in 2022 and 1.8 percent growth in 2023), and

euro area increased by 1.2 percent between April

the Euro Area (to a 2.6 percent increase in 2022 and

and May, which equated to a 2.0 percent gain yeara 1.2 percent gain in 2023). The organization noted

on-year. The subcategory of mail and internet orders

that the risks to the forecasts were ¡°overwhelmingly

decreased by 0.2 percent from April and fell by 10.7

tilted to the downside¡± and included a cessation of

percent year-on-year. The total volume of retail

gas exports from Russia to Europe; continued high

trade in the euro area increased by 0.2 percent

levels of inflation; renewed COVID-19 outbreaks;

between both April and May and year-on-year. At the

tighter global financial conditions; and geopolitical

national level, the total volume of retail trade in

fragmentation that impedes global trade and

France remained level between April and May and

cooperation.

increased by 3.7 percent year-on-year, while

Germany posted a 0.6 percent gain over April and a

The UK Office for National Statistics stated that the

3.6 percent slide year-on-year.

volume of retail sales (excluding automotive fuel)

Quarterly TEU Imports at Primary GPT Ports by Coast

3

GPT: North American Trade Outlook, August 2022

North America Economic Overview

H1 2022 Import and Export Market Share at the Primary GPT Ports

?

The East Coast ports tracked by the GPT increased

their market share in the first half of 2022 compared

to the same period of 2021, with a 1.7 percent gain

on the import side and a 1.5 percent increase on the

export side. Congestion has again become an issue

at several East Coast ports. The ports of NY&NJ,

Houston, and Charleston were the three top gainers

of import market share, with increases of 1.0

percent, 0.9 percent, and 0.6 percent respectively.

?

The US Census Bureau reported that the preliminary

seasonally adjusted inventories to sales ratio for

retail trade excluding motor vehicles and parts

increased from 1.15 in April to 1.16 in May. The

reading in May 2021 was 1.07. Furniture, home

furnishings, electronics and appliance stores

increased from (a downwardly revised) 1.62 to 1.64,

while the ratio for building materials, garden

equipment and supplies increased from (an

upwardly revised) 1.88 to 1.89. The inventories to

sales ratio for clothing and clothing accessories

stores increased from an upwardly revised 2.13 in

April to 2.18 in May, while general merchandise

stores remained level at 1.58.

?

The advance estimate of seasonally adjusted retail

sales and food services excluding motor vehicle and

parts dealers and gasoline stations for June

increased by 0.7 percent over May and grew by 6.6

percent year-on-year, according to data from the US

Census Bureau. Clothing and clothing accessories

stores experienced a 0.4 percent decrease in sales

between May and June (for a 0.2 percent dip yearon-year), while sales at furniture and home

furnishing stores were up 1.4 percent over May (for

a 4.6 percent gain year-on-year), and electronics and

appliance stores increased by 0.4 percent (for a 9.1

percent decrease year-on-year). Sales at general

merchandise stores dipped by 0.2 percent monthon-month for a 1.5 percent gain year-on-year, while

sales at non-store retailers increased by 2.2 percent

from May (for a 9.6 percent gain year-on-year).

?

Statistics Canada reported that the value of total

retail sales increased by 2.2 percent in May over

April, the fifth consecutive monthly increase, while

the volume of sales increased by 0.4 percent. Core

retails sales, which excludes gasoline stations and

motor vehicle and parts dealers, increased by 0.6

percent over April. The advance estimate of retail

sales for June is for a further 0.3 percent increase in

total retail sales. Retail e-commerce sales declined

23.5 percent year-on-year in May and accounted for

4.9 percent of total retail trade.

?

The Association of American Railroads reported that

US intermodal originations in July decreased by 3.0

percent year-on-year with 1.03 million units. For the

first 30 weeks of 2022, through July 30th, intermodal

units are down 5.8 percent year-on-year (versus a

6.2 percent decrease through the end of June) with

7.91 million units. Year-to-date Canadian intermodal

volumes through the same period are down 3.0

percent (versus a 4.7 percent decrease through the

end of June) with 2.07 million units; Mexican

intermodal volumes through the same period are

down 4.9 percent (versus a 3.8 percent decrease

through the end of June) with 462,000 units.

4

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