Brief Introduction& Table of Contents of - China Daily
Brief Introduction& Table of Contents of
China Medium- & Long-Term Steel Demand Forecasting 2009-2018
With prices plunging 40 percent, global steel industry is trapped in the financial crisis, and many steelmakers suffered losses in the fourth quarter of 2008. In contrast, China’s crude steel, when overseas steel mills were busy in cutting regular production, hit 500 million tons in 2008 at a slower pace of 1.13 percent. China’s apparent consumption of crude steel grew by 12.71 million tons, or 2.89 percent year-on-year, to 453 million tons. The growth rate fell back 8.99 percentage points. For most industrial insiders, the development trend of global steel industry remains unclear.
Chinese national economy, as the spotlight in global financial crisis, may bring more confidences to the world. As China’s most influential and trusted steel consulting provider, MRI holds a big concern about the future of Chinese steel industry. For this reason, MRI made full use of expertise talents, as well as Mysteel’s database and the long-term tracking of steel industry’s upstream and downstream sectors, to launch unique and independent forecasting for China’s steel industry (under different assumed GDP growths).
The basis for our forecasting:
← China’s historical output, sales of steel products
← China’s historical steel exports & imports
← The statistic communiqué of central and local governments
← The 11th “Five-Year Programs” by central and local governments
← The 4 trillion stimulus package plan in 2008
← The Revitalization Plans for Ten Industries in 2009
← Without considering historical changes in steel stocks
← Assumed RMB annual appreciation (against dollar) no more than 5%
← Assumed China annual GDP growth at 7.4% on average
← Assumed that China’s steel consumption for hit climax before 2018
The results of our forecasting:
According to category standard by China National Bureau of Statistics, Mysteel divides the steel end-users into seven big sectors to analyze and forecast their demand. Our forecasting also covers export and other sectors.
Assumed China GDP growth in next ten years averages 7.4%, the forecasting’s results are shown in the following figure: the real total demand for steel will break600 million tons by 2012; steel consumption of main sectors will reach *** million tons, and the total consumption will amount to *** million tons.
Assumed China GDP growth in next ten years averages 6.8%: the real total demand for steel will break 600 million tons by 2012; steel consumption of main sectors will reach ***million tons, and the total consumption will amount to ***million tons.
MRI’s forecasting results show some changes will occur in the structure of China’s steel consumption. The shares of steel consumption from construction, transport and export sectors will slide down modestly; shares of shipbuilding, resources & energy, machinery, auto, and light sectors will go up slightly.
The forecasting report also finds out the most potential steelmakers in expansion, and the biggest steel consuming provinces and cities.
Key conclusion from the forecasting analysis report:
← China’s real annual demand for steel will, based on a basic assumption, break 600 million tons within 2-3 years’
← China’s industrialization process provides firm support for downstream sectors of steel industry, in turn, the high growth in machinery, light, shipbuilding sectors also drive up steel sector.
← The South Central China area is the most potential market of steel consumption, and Wuhan Steel, Anshan Steel will be the biggest beneficiaries from downstream demand.
← China’s steel exports will maintain a level of around 50 million tons per year in the future; demand growth is set to rely on domestic need.
← China’s steel consumption is expected to face a new low in 2009 and will hold a low speed growth since then. A peak will arrive around 2020.
← The cooperation between China’s steel industry and downstream sectors will be closer, and industrial consolidation will make progress in coming years.
← China’s steel industry will welcome a best industrial restructuring period within the following three years.
Contents
Part one METHODS FOR FORECASTING 9
1.1 Contents 9
1.2 Framework 9
1.3 Basis & methods for our forecasting 10
Part two STEEL DEMAND FORECASTING FOR MAJOR SECTORS 12
2.1 For housing & construction sector 12
2.1.1 Urban housing construction 13
2.1.2 Rural housing construction 14
2.1.3 Non-residential building 16
2.1.4 Pipes, lines and equipment installation 17
2.1.5 Urban pipe construction 18
2.1.6 Building installation 19
2.2 For transport sector 20
2.2.1 Urban road & rail transit 22
2.2.2 Port & wharf 24
2.2.3 Highway & bridge 25
2.2.4 Container 26
2.2.5 Railway steel 27
2.3 For shipbuilding sector 28
2.4 For resources & energy sector 29
2.4.1 Minerals 30
2.4.2 Oil & gas exploitation 31
2.4.3 Electric power 32
2.5 For machinery sector 35
2.5.1 Heavy mining machinery 36
2.5.2 Various machine tools 37
2.5.3 Key engineering machinery 39
2.5.4 Agricultural machinery 41
2.5.5 Chemical machinery 42
2.5.6 Others 44
2.6 For auto sector 45
2.7 For light sector 47
2.7.1 Home appliance 49
2.7.2 Bicycle 50
2.7.3 Motorcycle 52
2.7.4 Metal hardware & others 53
2.8 For exports & others 54
2.9 Steel demand forecasting (by sector) 55
Part Three FORECASTING BASED ON OTHER GDP GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS 56
3.1 Based on a 6.8% assumption GDP growth in next 10 years 56
3.1.1 For housing & construction sector 56
3.1.2 For transport sector 57
3.1.3 For shipbuilding sector 57
3.1.4 For resources & energy sector 58
3.1.5 For machinery sector 58
3.1.6 For Auto sector 59
3.1.7 For light sector 59
3.1.8 Exports & others 59
3.1.9 Steel demand forecasting for sectors 60
3.2 Based on an 8.0% assumption of GDP growth in next 10 years 61
3.2.1 For housing construction sector 61
3.2.2 For transport sector 61
3.2.3 For shipbuilding sector 62
3.2.4 For resources & energy sector 62
3.2.5 For machinery sector 63
3.2.6 For Auto sector 63
3.2.7 For light sector 64
3.2.8 Exports & others 64
3.2.9 Steel demand forecasting (by sector) 65
Part four CHINA’S DEMAND FOR STEEL AND ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIVE EDGE 65
4.1 Analysis of features of steel consumption (by sector) 65
4.2 The map of key industries under China’s 11th Five-Year Program 66
4.3 The comparison of the most potentially biggest steel consuming areas 67
4.4 self-sufficiency and market shares at home (by steel product) 68
Figures
Figure 2-1-1 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend of Housing & Construction Sector 12
Figure 2-1-2 Steel Demand Forecast Of Housing & Construction Sector 12
Figure 2-1-3 Steel Demand Proportion of Housing & Construction Sector 13
Figure 2-1-4 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend of Urban Housing Construction 14
Figure 2-1-5 Steel demand forecast of urban housing construction 14
Figure 2-1-6 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend of Rural Housing Construction 15
Figure 2-1-7 Steel Demand Forecast of Rural Housing Construction 15
Figure 2-1-8 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend Of Non-Residential Building 16
Figure 2-1-9 Steel Demand of Non-Residential Building 16
Figure 2-1-10 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend of Pipes, Lines and Equipment Installation 17
Figure 2-1-11 Steel Demand Forecast Of Pipes, Lines and Equipment Installation 18
Figure 2-1-12 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend Urban Pipe Construction 19
Figure 2-1-13 Steel Demand Forecast of Urban Pipe Construction 19
Figure 2-1-14 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend of Building Installation 20
Figure 2-1-15 Steel demand forecast of building installation 20
Figure 2-2-1steel Demand Forecasting and Growth Trend Of Transport Sector 21
Figure 2-2-2 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend of Transport Sector 21
Figure 2-2-3 Steel Demand Proportion of Transport Sector 22
Figure 2-2-4 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend of Urban Road & Rail Transit 22
Figure 2-2-5 Steel Demand Forecasting of Urban Road & Rail Transit 23
Figure 2-2-6 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend Of Urban Road & Rail Transit 23
Figure 2-2-7 Steel Demand Forecasting for Urban Road & Rail Transit 24
Figure 2-2-8 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend Of Port & Wharf Industry 24
Figure 2-2-9 Steel Demand Forecasting of Port & Wharf Industry 25
Figure 2-2-10 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend of Highway & Bridge Industry 25
Figure 2-2-11 Steel Demand Forecast of Highway & Bridge Industry 26
Figure 2-2-12 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend of Container Industry 26
Figure 2-2-13 Steel Demand Forecast of Container Industry 27
Figure 2-2-14 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend of Railway Steel 27
Figure 2-2-15 Steel Demand Forecast of Railway Steel 28
Figure 2-3-1 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend of Shipbuilding Sector 28
Figure 2-3-2 The Steel Demand Forecasting For Shipbuilding Sector 29
Figure 2-4-1 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend of Resources & Energy Sector 29
Figure 2-4-2 The Steel Demand Forecasting for Resources & Energy Sector 30
Figure 2-4-3 Shares of Steel Consumption of Resources & Energy Sector in Nation’s Total 30
Figure 2-4-4 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend in Minerals Sector 31
Figure 2-4-5 The Steel Demand Forecasting for Minerals Sector 31
Figure 2-4-6 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend of Oil & Gas Exploitation Sector 32
Figure 2-4-7 The Steel Demand Forecasting for Oil & Gas Exploitation Sector 32
Figure 2-4-8 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend of Electric Power Sector 33
Figure 2-4-9 The Steel Demand Forecasting for Electric Power Sector 33
Figure 2-4-10 The Steel Demand Forecasting for Power Construction 34
Figure 2-4-11 The Forecasting for Distribution Networks Construction 34
Figure 2-4-12 The Forecasting for Transfer Substation Construction 35
Figure 2-5-1 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend for Machinery Sector 35
Figure 2-5-2 Steel Consumption Forecasting for Machinery Sector 36
Figure 2-5-3 Steel Consumption Shares for Machinery Sector 36
Figure 2-5-4 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend for Heavy Mining Machinery 37
Figure 2-5-5 Steel Consumption Forecasting for Heavy Mining Machinery 37
Figure 2-5-6 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend for Machine Tools Manufacturing 38
Figure 2-5-7 Output Forecasting for Various Machine Tools 38
Figure 2-5-8 Unit Consumption Forecasting for Various Machine Tools 38
Figure 2-5-9 Steel Consumption Forecasting for Various Machine Tools Manufacturing 39
Figure 2-5-10 Unit Consumption for Key Engineering Machinery 39
Figure 2-5-11 Output for Key Engineering Machinery 40
Figure 2-5-12 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend for Key Engineering Machinery 40
Figure 2-5-13 Steel Consumption for Key Engineering Machinery 41
Figure 2-5-14 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend for Agricultural Machinery 41
Figure 2-5-15 Steel Consumption for Agricultural Machinery 42
Figure 2-5-16 Production Value for Petrochemical General Equipment 43
Figure 2-5-17 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend for Chemical Machinery 43
Figure 2-5-18 Steel Consumption for Chemical Machinery 44
Figure 2-5-19 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend for Others 44
Figure 2-5-20 Steel Consumption for Others 44
Figure 2-6-1 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend for Auto Sector 45
Figure 2-6-2 Steel Consumption Forecasting for Auto Sector 46
Figure 2-6-3 Steel Consumption Shares for Auto Sector 46
Figure 2-6-4 Population and Output Forecasting for Buses and Trucks 47
Figure 2-6-5 Population and Output Forecasting for Cars 47
Figure 2-7-1 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend for Light Sector 48
Figure 2-7-2 Steel Consumption Forecasting for Light Sector 48
Figure 2-7-3 Steel Consumption Shares for Light Sector 48
Figure 2-7-4 Unit Consumption for Home Appliance 49
Figure 2-7-5 Output Forecasting for Home Appliance 49
Figure 2-7-6 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend for Home Appliance 50
Figure 2-7-7 Steel Consumption Forecasting for Home Appliance 50
Figure 2-7-8 Output Forecasting for Bicycles 51
Figure 2-7-9 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend for Bicycles 51
Figure 2-7-10 Steel Consumption Forecasting for Bicycles 52
Figure 2-7-11 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend for Motorcycle 52
Figure 2-7-12 Output and steel consumption forecasting for motorcycle 53
Figure 2-7-13 Steel Consumption and Growth Trend for Metal Hardware & Others 53
Figure 2-7-14 Steel Consumption Forecasting for Metal Hardware & Others 54
Figure 2-8-1 Export Volume and Growth Trend for Steel 54
Figure 2-8-2 Steel Consumption Forecasting For Export and Other Sectors 54
Figure 2-8-3 Steel Consumption Shares For Export and Other Sectors 55
Figure 2-9-1 Steel Demand Forecasting (by sector) 55
Figure 3-1-1Steel Demand Forecasting for Building Construction Sector 56
Figure 3-1-2 Steel Demand Forecasting for Transport Sector 57
Figure 3-1-3 Steel Demand Forecasting for Shipbuilding Sector 57
Figure 3-1-4 Steel Demand Forecasting for Resources & Energy Sector 58
Figure 3-1-5 Steel Demand Forecasting for Machinery Sector 58
Figure 3-1-6 Steel Demand Forecasting for Auto Sector 59
Figure 3-1-7 Steel Demand Forecasting for Light Sector 59
Figure 3-1-8 Steel Demand Forecasting for Exports & Others 59
Figure 3-1-9 Steel Demand Forecasting for Steel demand forecasting for Sectors 60
Figure 3-2-1 Steel Demand Forecasting for Building Construction Sector 61
Figure 3-2-2 Steel Demand Forecasting for Transport Sector 61
Figure 3-2-3 Steel Demand Forecasting for Shipbuilding Sector 62
Figure 3-2-4 Steel Demand Forecasting for Resources & Energy Sector 62
Figure 3-2-5 Steel Demand Forecasting for Machinery Sector 63
Figure 3-2-6 Steel Demand Forecasting for Auto Sector 63
Figure 3-2-7 Steel Demand Forecasting for Light Sector 64
Figure 3-2-8 Steel Demand Forecasting for Exports & Others 64
Figure 3-2-9 Steel Demand Forecasting for Steel demand forecasting 65
Figure 4-1The Correlation between Heavy Industrialization Phase II and Fasting Growing Steel Sector 66
Figure 4-2 The Map of Key Industries under China’s 11th Five-Year Program 67
Figure 4-3 The Comparison of the Most Potentially Biggest Steel Consuming Areas 68
Figure 4-4 China’s Self-Sufficiency, Market Shares of Homemade Steel Products in 2008 69
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