PDF Egg Markets Overview - Agricultural Marketing Service

Egg Markets Overview

A weekly publication of the USDA AMS Livestock and Poultry Program, Agricultural Analytics Division

Wholesale prices for cartoned shell eggs moved lower through the week as supplies became more manageable and offerings moderated. The pace of trading is slow to moderate on average interest. Wholesale prices for graded loose eggs moved lower through the week as offerings increased their availability while supplies were adequate for current needs. Interest was average and the pace of trading has begun to slow. The volume of trailer load sales this week dropped sharply, down 37% from last week, further illustrating the slowdown in loose egg trading. Prices for national trading of trucklot quantities of graded, loose, White Large shell eggs decreased $0.03 to $0.578 per dozen with a weak to lower undertone. The wholesale price on the New York market for Large cartoned shell eggs delivered to retailers declined $0.04 to $1.02 per dozen with a weak undertone. The Midwest wholesale price for Large, white, shell eggs delivered to warehouses declined $0.06 to $0.92 per dozen and prices paid to producers in the Midwest for Large cartoned shell eggs declined $0.05 to $0.68 per dozen, both with a lower undertone. The California benchmark for Large shell eggs declined $0.10 to $1.53 per dozen with a weak undertone. Delivered prices on the California wholesale loose egg market decreased $0.07 to $0.903 per dozen with a barely steady undertone.

Weekly Loose Shell Egg, Large, White, National Index (f.o.b. dock, cents per dozen)

270 2019

225

180

135

90

45

0

J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

A

S

O

Weekly U.S. Table Egg Demand (Shell Egg Demand Index)

2019

40

Consumer demand for shell eggs continued to move lower over the past week as the pace of retail feature activity slowed considerably and average prices increased to a level unlikely to stimulate increased consumer buying ? both trends that are reversing into the current ad week. In recent years, retail promotional activity has slowed into the latter half of October before increasing its pace into November. The approach of November marks a seasonal shift to declining temperatures across much of the country that brings with it increasing indoor activities as consumer thoughts turn to baking as the holiday season approaches. Marketers remain focused on maintaining sufficient stocks of desirable weight classes to satisfy the anticipated rise in demand and most near-term trading is focused on stock rotation.

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

A

S

O

October 22, 2021

2020

2021

N

D

2020

2021

N

D

Large peercentage Shell Egg demand

Promotional activity for conventional shell eggs in retail outlets increases this cycle and

the average ad price declined $0.17 to $0.99 per dozen. Retail egg purchases into next Large Shell Egg Percentage of Inventory v. Demand (SEDI)

week are estimated to decline 1%. Promotional activity for specialty shell eggs falls from

58%

LG% 21

LG% 20

last week's very active level. Nutritionally-enhanced types lead all others with organic on

the decline and cage-free on the rise. Feature activity for UEP-defined cage-free shell eggs

54%

decreases as the cycle advances and accounts for 19% of all shell egg types on feature.

50%

The average ad price lost $0.16 to $2.32 per dozen. The average ad price spread between

12-packs of Large caged eggs and UEP cage-free eggs widens by $0.01 per dozen to a

46%

spread of $1.33 per dozen. 42%

The overall inventory of shell eggs increased 2% and the nation-wide inventory of Large eggs was about unchanged. The inventory of Large eggs in the key Midwest production

38%

J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

A

S

Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division

Demand 21

O

N

Demand 20 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20

D

Egg Markets Overview

region increased 9% as eggs stocks rebuild following clearance into marketing channels Weekly Eggs Processed (30-dozen cases)

to support last week's elevated retail promotional activity. Retail purchases into this week

1.8

were unchanged indicating steady business in the near-term. The inventory share of Large

1.7

million 30-dozen cases

class shell eggs declined 1.5% to a 48% share of all shell egg stocks on inventory at the

1.6

start of the week following recent increased retail featuring. Stocks of cage-free eggs rose

1.5

slightly as stocks stabilized following recent retail promotional activity while stocks of

nutritionally-enhanced shell eggs declined 14% as product cleared to support recent

1.4

increased retail activity. Breaking stock inventories were unchanged as breakers are able

1.3

to find adequate supplies on the spot market to balance with owned stocks to maintain

1.2

schedules at a full-time pace. Total table egg production for the week was unchanged from the prior week and from the prior year, holding at about 1.3 million dozen more than

1.1

J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

last year's weekly production.

2019

2020

2021

A

S

O

N

D

Wholesale prices for breaking stock in the Central States moved lower, down $0.03 to $0.59 per dozen with a weak to barely steady undertone. Supplies and offerings are moderate with some increase in offerings noted. Demand is moderating as is the pace of trading. Schedules are full-time. The volume of eggs processed over the past week increased 5% to a 32% share of weekly table egg production. Production of whole egg was about unchanged. Production of whites was unchanged while that for yolk increased nearly 2%. The production of dried eggs rose one percent and that for inedible egg was about unchanged. Breaking yields without inedible declined a half pound to 40.68 pounds per case broken.

Wholesale prices for whole certified liquid whole eggs are too few to report with a barely steady undertone. Offerings are light to moderate. The wholesale price for frozen whole egg products is unchanged at $1.02 per pound as is the price for liquid whites at $0.66 per pound. The undertone is steady. Offerings and supplies are light to moderate for moderate to good demand. The pace of trading is moderate to active. Wholesale prices for dried eggs remain largely unchanged with whole dried egg at $3.85 per pound and dried albumen at $4.90 per pound. Dried yolk prices increased $0.15 to $3.10 per pound. Offerings and supplies are light to moderate. Demand is moderate to good, best for yolk. Trading is moderate to active.

According to NASS, the August monthly volume of frozen eggs in storage was unchanged from July and 23% below the 2020 level. Stocks of whole frozen egg decreased 3% from last month and remained well under last year's level at a 42% deficit. The share of whole egg stocks lost 1% to a 40% of total frozen stocks. Stocks of frozen yolk declined 16%after July's sharp rise and is now just 1% over the year ago level. Stocks of frozen egg whites were unchanged but dropped to 23% under last year. Stocks of unclassified eggs posted the only significant increase, up 3%, but 27% below 2020. The share of unclassified frozen stocks gained 2% to 47% of all frozen egg products in storage.

Cage-free commitments as of September 2021 remain about unchanged, requiring 66.7 billion cage-free eggs per year to meet 100% of needs from an approximate cage-free flock of 221.5 million hens (69% of the U.S. non-organic flock), indicating a shortage of 139 million hens from the current non-organic cage-free flock of 82.6 million hens. The average lay rate for non-organic cage-free production is currently estimated at 82.3%.

Eggs Processed Week-to-Week Change total share whole whites yolks dried

-0.2% -0.2% -2.6% 0.0% 1.7% 1.2%

inedible 0.3%

Central States Breaking Stock Eggs (cents per dozen)

90

75

60

45

30

15

J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

week

2019

2020

2021

A

S

O

N

D

Relationship Between Shell Egg Retail Ad Price and Demand (SEDI)

Advertised prices to consumers by U.S. supermarkets for conventional caged shell eggs $1.60

$1.50

$1.40

$1.30

$1.20

$1.10

$1.00

$0.90

$0.80

$0.70

$0.60 J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

A

S

weekly

Price 2021

Demand 2021 20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

O

N

D

sale price per dozen shell egg demand

Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division

Egg Markets Overview

Shell Eggs Market Price Comparisons

(as of October 22, 2021)

(National Index on a loose-egg basis, all other prices for cartoned eggs; LG White avg prices in cents per dozen)

sector markup

18%

35%

4%

prior current

loose

carton

carton

carton

carton

57.8

68.0

92.0

96.0

99.0

national index producer

delivered delivered store retail on ad

warehouse

door

Producer, warehouse, & store door = MW; retail no sale NY market; retail on sale Nat'l Retail Feature; loose eggs include minimal

Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division

Key Egg Markets Overview

22-Oct % Change

SHELL EGGS (Large, White, conventional in cents per dozen)

National, Loose, (f.o.b. dock prices)

57.79

-6%

New York, Cartoned (price to retailers)

102.00

-4%

Midwest, Cartoned (price dlvrd to warehouse)

92.00

-6%

California, Cartoned, benchmark

153.00

-6%

15-Oct

61.21 106.00 98.00 163.00

Recent History 8-Oct 1-Oct 24-Sep

65.68 112.00 107.00 174.00

77.17 120.00 107.00 174.00

73.61 122.00 110.00 176.00

17-Sep

69.61 122.00 128.00 194.00

National Retail Shell Egg (avg. ad price in dollars per dozen)

Conventional, Large, White

0.99

Cage-Free, Large, Brown/White

2.32

-15% 1.16 1.32 1.14 1.14 1.01 -6% 2.48 2.44 2.47 2.40 2.55

EGG PRODUCTS (f.o.b. dock prices; dollars per pound)

Central States Breaking Stock (dlvd prices per doz) 59.00

Whole Frozen Eggs

102.00

Whole Dried Eggs

3.85

Processed Share of Weekly Egg Production

31.8%

-5% 0% 0% -0.2%

62.00 102.00

3.85 32.0%

65.00 102.00

3.85 30.7%

65.00 99.00

3.85 31.5%

64.00 96.00

3.80 31.1%

65.00 95.00

3.80 29.7%

SHELL EGG DEMAND INDICATOR (no units) Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics

-6.7

-1.2 -5.5 -2.8 -3.8 -2.3 -1.2

Key Shell Egg Markets Snapshot - 2021

(Large, White, Conventional Shell Eggs in cents per dozen)

National, Loose, (f.o.b. dock prices) New York, Cartoned (price to retailers) Midwest, Cartoned (price dlvrd to warehouse) 1 California, Cartoned, benchmark Central States Breaking Stock (delivered prices) 1 Whole Frozen Egg Products (f.o.b. dock prices) Whole Dried Egg Products (f.o.b. dock prices) Natl Average Retail Ad Price - Conventional Natl Average Retail Ad Price - Cage-free2 Shell Egg Demand Indicator 1 mostly high; 2 non-organic

22-Oct 57.8 102.0 92.0 153.0 59.0 102.0 3.85 0.99 2.32 -6.7

Change -6% -4% -6% -6% -5% 0% 0% -15% -6% -1.2

15-Oct 57.6 106.0 98.0 163.0 90.0 102.0 3.85 1.16 2.48 -5.5

2021 High 113.5 12-Mar 152.0 10-Mar 135.0 15-Mar 200.0 30-Aug 73.0 12-Mar 102.0 08-Oct 3.85 01-Oct 1.59 02-Apr 2.77 02-Jul 18.1 01-Jan

2021 Low 44.6 10-Jun 90.0 10-Jun 75.0 14-Jun 123.0 14-Jun 34.0 08-Jan 63.0 08-Jan 2.90 15-Jan 0.78 29-Jan 1.84 01-Jan -14.2 05-May

Egg Markets Overview

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